Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley says it's worth sticking with Romain Langasque after another eye-catching week when the Ras al Khaimah Championship tees off on Thursday.
Golf betting tips: Ras al Khaimah Championship
2pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 25/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Ryan Fox at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 90/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kristoffer Broberg at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
If the beginning of the new era was a mess, take two has been electric: wins for Thomas Pieters in Abu Dhabi and Viktor Hovland in Dubai provided an immediate hit for those invested solely in the now, while offering hope of a bright future for anyone looking beyond. After the Ryder Cup, European golf needed an injection of something and it has it, thanks to two mega talents who ought to be key to any home success in Rome next year.
It's nevertheless welcome that the stars of the circuit and those American guests who like to expand their horizons early in the year are elsewhere, if not for sponsors of the DP World Tour then certainly for those of us trying to solve its puzzles. None of the world's top 50 feature in the Ras al Khaimah Championship, the first of two events at the same course, and that helps make for an appealing betting heat.
At the top of the market is last week's primary source of disappointment, Bernd Wiesberger. The Austrian again putted poorly as he slumped to a midfield finish, but the greatest frustration was that he failed to capitalise on tough weekend conditions which ought to have brought out his best just as they ultimately did in Hovland. He's the class act here but had no excuses and can win unbacked if he must.
With Robert MacIntyre nursing an ankle injury but keen nevertheless to stick around and take advantage of the DP World Tour's physio, both the man who did make last year's Ryder Cup and the one who perhaps ought to have look worth taking on. This is a potential platform for someone with similar potential to step up and underline the point that however deep the pool of talent in the United States, there's plenty here too – and a competitive Ryder Cup should be at the low end of our expectations.
Rallying cry submitted, it's time to repeat the case for ROMAIN LANGASQUE, who has everything in his favour.
The Frenchman was threatening to place for us at big odds on Sunday until a poor second to the par-five 10th cost him two shots and all his momentum. Langasque steadied the ship nicely, though, and in doing so was able to polish off back-to-back top-20 finishes to begin the campaign.
Those came in Rolex Series events with enormous purses and members of the world's top 10 in attendance, so this is a significant drop in grade, and it looks an ideal time to get a real handle on where his game is. The answer, I suspect, is right where he needs it to win this sort of tournament.
Like a number of these, Langasque has the advantage of having played Al Hamra on the Challenge Tour, and he was halfway leader on debut before finishing sixth, and then fourth on his return. In eight rounds played, he's never left the top six and while there's something self-fulfilling about this sort of form portrait, a scoring average of 68.50 demonstrates how well he's played the course.
Al Hamra is a textbook Middle East par 72, with four par-fives, a couple of short par-fours, and in need of a wind that isn't in the forecast to be seriously testing. It played tougher for the 2018 Grand Final than in previous years, but with a stronger field and good forecast it should be far more straightforward than the two tough assignments which we've witnessed over the last fortnight.
Most of all, it looks a golf course where strong drivers will thrive. Four years ago, Adri Arnaus, Victor Perez, Langasque and Sean Crocker took four of the top five places on the leaderboard, with MacIntyre sharing sixth along with Niklas Lemke. To a man, these are players whose best golf starts with long, generally straight driving, and the same conclusion can be drawn from two previous editions.
That adds a layer of substance to Langasque's form here and having got the driver in the slot last week, and ranked 11th off the tee last season, he looks in excellent shape. As long as this isn't lights-out scoring I think he'll have everything to suit, and it's worth noting that he has previous when the DP World Tour has gone to a course he'd played well at on the Challenge Tour, twice placing in Kenya where he'd been runner-up at a lower level.
Double delight for Smith?
The Hojgaard twins should both enjoy this but Rasmus doesn't quite have his long-game where it may need to be, and Nicolai was a bit disappointing last week. He's playing better than MC-MC suggests and bounced back from a similarly frustrating sequence late last year, and the turnaround in his price versus that of Langasque isn't unnoticed. However, the Frenchman has produced better golf and is preferred.
At the risk of unoriginality, I'm also keen to include JORDAN SMITH, who gets the nod ahead of Adrian Meronk, my player to follow for the year and one who really impressed last week.
Meronk is a former runner-up here and looks to have every chance, but Smith's Middle East run of 24-12-9 has seen him show the necessary improvements with putter in hand to believe that he can at last double his tally – both at this level and at this course.
The Englishman cruised through the Challenge Tour back in 2016, winning here along the way and speaking of how much he liked the look of Al Hamra. He made just two bogeys all week, both on Sunday, and after a slower-than-ideal start produced rounds of 66-67-66 at a course which allows him to capitalise on his key strength: driving the ball.
In two of his last four starts, Smith has led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and the rest of his game appears now to be falling into place. His record in the Middle East shows 18 cuts made in 20, these big, modern courses clearly to his liking and grainy greens often proving suitable, and I like the fact that he's played so well in Oman at Al Mouj.
That course looks very similar to Al Hamra and there are strong leaderboard ties through the likes of Clement Sordet, Jens Dantorp and Smith himself. Under calm conditions, both are especially vulnerable to those who can bully the scoring holes with the blend of power and accuracy which mark Smith out as one of the best drivers in the field.
Fine chance for Fox
RYAN FOX doesn't always produce the strokes-gained numbers to match his power, as seen when 24th off the tee last week despite leading in distance, but he's certainly suited to this test and can show it here.
Fox would've been on the radar for the adjacent Saudi International, where he led at halfway last year, but this is a much more realistic opportunity and he too has previous, having been fifth at halfway and finished 16th because of one poor round here in 2016.
The New Zealander was also sixth at Al Mouj that year, a course where he had caught the eye on debut in 2015, while his long-game so far this season has been sharper than we might've expected following a prolonged break.
As Fox told The Guardian's Ewan Murray, he's had a particularly difficult time over the last couple of years, but things are hopefully looking up and we ought to see him competing in this kind of company. He played some excellent golf over the weekend in Dubai, a hole-in-one the highlight, and 26th place was his best finish in six starts there.
Now returning to a course where he's been in the mix, one which is more exposed and therefore quite possibly more to his liking, he looks a 50/1 shot with plenty of upside.
JOHANNES VEERMAN is another who caught the eye last week, finishing 35th on his Dubai Desert Classic debut and striking the ball really well.
Veerman was 21st in strokes-gained approach and third in greens hit, both encouraging, and there's no cause for alarm where the putter is concerned. It let him down on greens slicker than we'll get at Al Hamra, but is typically a strength and any malaise is likely to be short-lived.
His victory last year was coming and the fact it was at Albatros, a big, long course where strong drivers thrive, is not insignificant. Veerman is by no means a bomber but he's longer than average and it's that club where he's found the improvement which laid the foundations for his career-best run through summer.
He's a prolific birdie-maker whose Middle East form shows promise despite limited opportunities, and includes 14th in Qatar plus 21st in the high-class DP World Tour Championship. After a breakout 2021, expect Veerman to continue to improve and if the arrival of his first child proves a help rather than a hindrance, he could go close at least once over the next fortnight.
Who is the best bet at a big price?
At big prices, Paul Waring and Stephen Gallacher are two quality ball-strikers with stacks of Middle East form between them, the latter of course twice a winner in Dubai.
Waring's long-game began to click late last year and he ended the campaign ranked 17th off the tee. He looks to have dealt with a number of health issues and any kind of improvement on and around the greens would surely see him outrun odds of 200/1.
Waring missed the cut by a stroke last week after doubling his final hole from the fairway, and it was in a similar field to this that he threatened the places in Dubai late last year. We were on then at massive prices and he is worth a look if you are looking for a genuine dart.
Gallacher has won four times to Waring's one, is a similar price, and has some really good form at Al Mouj to his name. Should that prove a good guide to Al Hamra then he might look the best bet of the two, and it's just a year ago that he was in front at halfway in the Saudi International.
Richard Mansell has the makings of a quality operator whose ball-striking is already of an extremely high standard, but he's been off since October and may just lack for sharpness. Watch him closely with next week in mind, but for now the advice is to back BRANDON STONE and KRISTOFFER BROBERG instead.
Stone was runner-up in last year's Dubai Desert Classic, but it's his Al Mouj form which really catches the eye. In five starts there he's twice been runner-up, unluckily on the latter occasion, and he was also sixth in 2017. In 2019, a year before his play-off defeat to Sami Valimaki, he was third at halfway before a difficult third round in bad weather.
Third in strokes-gained off-the-tee last season and ninth in 2020, Stone is unquestionably one of the best drivers on the circuit, and he showed that club to be firing when ranking fourth last week. The other departments of his game all showed improvement from Abu Dhabi and it's been a quietly solid start to the year.
Stone is notoriously hard to get right but he's got stacks of talent, has won better tournaments than this, and would only need to putt better to become a massive player should he take to the course. The latter looks likely and his putting stats in the Middle East are above-average in the long-term.
As for Broberg, he's added a layer of absurdity to his shock Dutch Open win by rediscovering his long-game in seven subsequent starts, and further success beckons if he can keep it rolling.
Broberg won there because his waywardness went unpunished and he produced an astonishing week on the greens. Since then, however, he's gained strokes off the tee in every single start, and his iron play has at times been of an extremely high standard, ranking first in the Dunhill Links, fifth in Portugal and seventh in Dubai.
In other words, the substance to his renaissance comes not from the win, but from what he's done since. Many, myself included, would've anticipated a return to obscurity after the cards fell into place. Instead, he's used victory and the freedom it brings to cement his status.
Broberg returned after Christmas with his long-game still firing but the putter cold. Last week, he gained 3.85 strokes with his ball-striking in two rounds only to narrowly miss the cut because of issues with his short-game, and the message is very much that he's hitting the ball well enough to go close.
Perhaps he'll continue to struggle to piece it all together and it would be fair to say his record in the Middle East isn't immediately encouraging. However, it may be significant that his best efforts have come at Doha, which like Al Hamra is designed by Peter Harradine and offers plenty of opportunities for strong ball-strikers under calm conditions, and becomes a proper test when it blows.
The Swede's win in the Netherlands was a massive shock, but a follow-up here would not be and he completes the staking plan.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 31/01/22
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