Ben Coley's golf betting tips: QBE Shootout preview and best bets
Four Georgia golfers stand out in the QBE Shootout, Ben Coley's final stateside preview of a profitable 2022.
Golf betting tips: QBE Shootout
5pts win English/Kuchar at 7/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
4pts win Harman/Straka at 8/1 (BoyleSports)
1pt dual forecast on the above teams at 33/1 (Sky Bet)
Jason Day & Billy Horschel
Florida's Billy Horschel isn't one to miss a team event if he can help it and, at last, he even got to take part in one of the meaningful ones at the Presidents Cup. A former winner of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, this title still eludes him having tried various partners. Jason Day steps in to be the ninth of those and the Australian has certainly been one of the eye-catchers of the last three months, for all that his run of promise came to an abrupt halt in the RSM Classic. Unlike Horschel, he has won this before (2014, Cameron Tringale) and at their best these two are the classiest golfers here. You'd just have to be a little bit worried about the state of Horschel's game (T13 of 20 last week) at the end of a big year, and whether Day will return to the putting levels he'd shown prior to Sea Island.
Tom Hoge & Sahith Theegala
It's the end of a breakout 2022 for Tom Hoge, who first showed real guts to win at Pebble Beach and then supplemented that with a top-10 finish in the PGA Championship, before a run of 5-12-4-9-13 from August through to late October. Two missed cuts in his last two starts are less of a concern than the fact his putter occasionally runs cold, and that this is his debut here. The same is true of talented maiden Sahith Theegala, who was runner-up in the RSM Classic last time out, largely thanks to the best putting performance of his burgeoning career. Both players missed the cut in the Zurich Classic, with different partners, and with Theegala's wild driver a potential problem they make little appeal at the odds.
Max Homa & Kevin Kisner
Two of six players who arrive from the Hero World Challenge, which is played under somewhat similar conditions and might at least guarantee that they are sharp. Concerns over Kevin Kisner's general form remain after his performance there (19th) and while he's a seasoned team player who has been a regular visitor to Tiburon, he's not yet managed better than fourth place back in 2016. He and Max Homa did combine for a final-round 60 and a share of fifth last year however and when firing, they'd make one of the best putting teams here. Homa played beautifully on his Presidents Cup debut but while they're probably not alone, I doubt these two will be taking this competition particularly seriously, and Homa only just beat his partner in the Bahamas (17th).
Corey Conners & KH Lee
Another set of Presidents Cup teammates, Corey Conners and KH Lee both arrive here in decent form. Lee in particular has enjoyed the best season of his career, not only doubling his PGA Tour tally but backing that up with some high-class top-fives, one of which earned him a place in the TOUR Championship. More recently, third at the CJ Cup saw him putt well on similar greens to these and conditions should suit despite the fact he finished T11 alongside Brandt Snedeker last year. Conners was fifth in that having been sixth on debut and there's something to be said for having a partner who will find fairways and greens, but neither man seems likely to get hot with the putter. Conners does at least arrive after a final-round 67 in the Hero (16th), the best of the day.
Harris English & Matt Kuchar
Winners in 2013, 2019 and 2020, this Sea Island pairing is bound to be popular. They've not just won the event three times, but the combined distance of these three victories has been 17 shots, so there's no doubt they set the standard in terms of being proven in the format and at the course. It's also fair to say that both arrive in decent shape, English having been mid-pack and showing signs of promise in every start since the Shriners, despite his usually reliable putting having deserted him the last twice. That shouldn't last long. As for Matt Kuchar, he too had been ticking over before the RSM Classic and it's easy to forgive a lull at an event where he often flatters to deceive. Like English, he's not been putting as he can but we know the potential is there.
Brian Harman & Sepp Straka
Two former University of Georgia teammates who pair up for the first time. Both will enjoy conditions, Straka's breakthrough win having come here in Florida at the Honda Classic and Harman particularly effective in the southern states, and while it's Harman who is best known for his putting, Straka occasionally comes alive on the greens, too. His form would be the most obvious concern but there's been good amongst the bad and he played nicely enough when faced with the daunting task of replacing Tiger Woods at the Hero World Challenge (T10). Though it's his debut here, Harman won the 2018 renewal with another first-timer and after back-to-back runner-up finishes, he arrives at the very top of his game, so they're ones to watch.
Keith Mitchell & JJ Spaun
Both players are first-time participants in the QBE Shootout and I wouldn't be sure it's the course nor indeed the format for them. Mitchell is a quality performer and loves bermuda greens, but as his Honda Classic win suggests, he's at his best under tough conditions or else when his driver is a particularly potent weapon. That club is also a staple of Spaun's game, hence his win at TPC San Antonio in the spring, and while his putting has improved that's generally been away from bermuda. It might just be a tall order to expect them to stack up the required birdies even if they've both been playing well of late and are by no means one-dimensional.
Steve Stricker & Cameron Young
Having won three of his last four starts on the Champions Tour, 55-year-old Steve Stricker arrives primed for his 13th appearance in this event. A two-time winner including as recently as 2017, he can still compete with the youngsters under these conditions and it's only 18 or so months since he finished fourth in the Phoenix Open and then 13th in the Honda Classic. He also has a fantastic partner, one who played some good stuff in the Bahamas last week for all that his driving wasn't as dominant as we've come to expect. How they combine isn't easy to predict but if Young has another productive few days with the putter and gets his best club singing again, they could soon look overpriced.
Trey Mullinax & Scott Stallings
So strong was Scott Stallings' form in summer that some felt he might've been worthy of a Presidents Cup call. He'll have been happy enough to reach the TOUR Championship and secure a Masters return and while not playing quite so well lately, there's been nothing in particular to worry about. His iron play ought to turn a corner soon and he's got plenty of form in low-scoring events. So has Trey Mullinax, winner of the Barbasol, and both top-fives since then confirm his fondness for playing in this part of the world. He's a first-timer though and Stallings hasn't featured since 2011, when he was mid-pack alongside Kenny Perry, which is just about enough to overlook prices as big as 14/1 which at first glance did stand out.
Charley Hoffman & Ryan Palmer
Both of these fine drivers have experience of the event and it's largely positive for all that they remain winless. Charley Hoffman has struggled since nearly winning the Texas Open again in April 2021 but his long-game continues to show signs of encouragement and perhaps this format will help to free him up on the greens. Ryan Palmer, a similar player, hasn't been quite so good in that department but he is a Zurich Classic winner (OK, with Jon Rahm) who has always been at his best under low-scoring conditions. Chances are they don't hole enough putts, however, and others are preferred.
Nelly Korda & Denny McCarthy
Nelly Korda is the third LPGA player to take part in this event, and I can't help but feel that along with partner Denny McCarthy, she's being underestimated just a little. Yes, Lexi Thompson has finished last in two of five appearances, and in the bottom half of two more, but she's been grouped with some poor putters, a young Bryson DeChambeau and a veteran Sean O'Hair. Korda gets to play with one of golf's quiet improvers and, crucially, its best putters. She does so having won two starts ago, here in her home state of Florida, and like Thompson she knows this course very well. McCarthy is an in-form Florida man who is deadly on the greens at his best and I reckon there's a chance they can bridge the distance gap here. At 40/1 they might be worth some loose change for all this is a big ask.
Lexi Thompson & Maverick McNealy
Lexi Thompson's record in the event, as noted above, doesn't leap off the page, but she is a course winner on the LPGA Tour who also arrives in-form having narrowly lost out to Korda in the Pelican Women's Championship. And there is definitely a chance that in Maverick McNealy, another dynamite putter, she's found a better partner even than Tony Finau, with whom she was T4 in 2017. McNealy's recent form reads 10-12-18-10-27 so he's playing really well and it's tempting to include both LPGA players in the staking plan. Lexi's short-game issues should be less of a handicap in this event, too, but on balance I prefer the claims of Korda and McCarthy, and even they will have to be near flawless to have a chance off the back tees. Lexi and Maverick might be booked for last.
Verdict
I've long felt that the key to the QBE Shootout is to focus on the strongest putting teams and that would've helped unearth last year's winners, with Kevin Na certainly among the best in the field and partner Jason Kokrak enjoying a purple patch of his own at the time.
Given that Hoge and Theegala both ranked outside the top 100 in putting last season, they along with Conners and Lee would be the teams I find easiest to overlook and with the favourites having some questions to answer, I have it between HARMAN AND STRAKA, and ENGLISH AND KUCHAR.
There's nothing complicated about siding with the three-time winners but I like how both men are playing and it's easy to envisage their putters coming alive back in this familiar event. It's been a year of frustration for English, too, so perhaps there's reason to believe he'll be taking this seriously as has evidently been the case in previous renewals.
It's worth saying that they've not just won this, but they've done so by margins of seven and nine shots together with a narrow victory in 2016. They were also third a year ago having led after round one and runners-up in both 2014 and 2015, their event form figures read 1-2-2-1-9-1-3, that ninth place coming when English had missed his last six cuts.
Such a strong record in the event just earns them the headline vote but Straka fared well in the Bahamas last week and that unexpected warm-up might make all the difference for him and Harman, another former champion.
Again, motivation is worth considering and while this event isn't going to matter when it comes to Straka's Ryder Cup ambitions, he might not feel that way – see Na's reaction to winning last year for how easy it is to underestimate what even an exhibition might mean to a player.
Harman meanwhile must be a little sick of not quite doing enough, and this tenacious competitor was fully invested in winning here four years ago. That came as reward for a fine run of performances (he hadn't missed a cut in the US since May) whereas he'd been struggling prior to last year's, so expect him to fire after going so close at home on Sea Island last time.
We've had plenty of winners of this sent off at double-figure prices and anything upwards of 12/1 might've tempted me into siding with Stricker and Young, but it's Korda and McCarthy who I kept coming back to among the outsiders.
It's undoubtedly difficult for a mixed-gender team to compete in this, as has been demonstrated down the years, but Korda is exceptional, she's in form, and she's hyper-competitive. I reckon she'll be desperate to surprise a few people and in McCarthy, arguably the best putter on the PGA Tour, she has a potentially ideal partner.
Both are from Florida and I think they might surprise a few, but winning is probably a bridge too far so I'll finish off the staking plan with a small go at the dual forecast. Backing the two selected teams to finish first and second in either order appeals at 33s.
2022 QBE Shootout format & TV info
Tiburon Golf Club, Florida - December 9-11
- Round 1: Scramble (players both tee-off, select best ball, then both play a shot from there; process repeated until hole complete)
- Round 2: Modified alternate shot (like traditional foursomes, but both players tee-off before the best ball is selected; alternate shots thereafter)
- Round 3: Four-ball (traditional better-ball, where both players in a team play their own ball as it lies and their best score on each hole counts)
TV Coverage: Sky Sports are broadcasting all three days for UK viewers
Posted at 1915 GMT on 05/12/22
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