Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Qatar Masters preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley fancies Tom McKibbin to underline his star potential by contending in the Qatar Masters.
Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters
2pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Niklas Moller at 55/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Haotong Li at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Filippo Celli at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
It's almost time for a break on the DP World Tour but before that, Rasmus Hojgaard will tee it up for the fifth week in succession and once again do so as favourite, this time for the Qatar Masters.
Returned now to its home at Doha Golf Club and last played as recently as October, this tournament has a high-class roll of honour and it's difficult to look at this week's field without acknowledging that times really have changed since the likes of Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Thomas Bjorn, Sergio Garcia, Paul Lawrie and Ernie Els won the title.
Those names tell you much about the task at hand. Stenson, Lawrie and Els are of course Open champions; Scott, Bjorn and Garcia ought to be. Doha is a world away from the links courses upon which these fabulous golfers are so at home, but many of the same skills are required.
We can look beyond those class acts for further confirmation: Chris Wood boasts two Open top-fives, Branden Grace the lowest round in Open history, Eddie Pepperell that hungover run at Carnoustie. Ewen Ferguson once won the Boys Amateur at Royal Liverpool, and while Sami Valimaki hasn't quite that links pedigree, his first win came in a blustery Oman Open at the expense of former Scottish Open champ Brandon Stone.
Valimaki had played well at the Dunhill Links just prior to winning here and that's a great place to go hunting for clues, especially as the forecast for the week suggests the first two rounds will be played in a stiff breeze. Also notable about the Finn is that he, like runner-up Jorge Campillo and predecessor Ferguson, is a quality iron player at his best.
The cases for and against Hojgaard remain as they were in Bahrain and I just wonder whether he'd benefit from a break now, especially having been ill last week. Hojgaard is one of a handful of players who've already played four events in a row and that's also my nagging concern about Sebastian Soderberg, who fits the bill as arguably the standout iron player in the field and keeps banging loudly on the door.
But freshness really could play a part and it's why I'm happy to go in again on TOM MCKIBBIN.
This potential superstar was 16th when selected at Al Hamra and while the performance of Thorbjorn Olesen was so good that it would be disingenuous to state that McKibbin might have won had his putter behaved, he really ought to have hit the frame at least.
Seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee continued a run of outstanding driving which dates back to before this tournament last year and, as had been anticipated, he took another step forward with his approach work to produce some of the best figures of his career and rank fifth overall.
Rewind to last summer's European Open win and it came after an almost identical tee-to-green display to that which he produced last time out, underpinned by better iron play, and as his best finish since came here in Qatar it's almost too convenient to suggest that history is about to repeat.
But the case really is that straightforward and while we have to accept a shorter price, there's no Olesen, no Jordan Smith, no Laurie Canter, plus a handful more solid operators absent from a weaker field. The fact that another 15 or so Qualifying School graduates get a game tells you we are taking a definite drop in grade.
McKibbin will have to putt better but his best display for several months came here in Doha and it could be something as simple as seeing a few drop early on which sets him up for a massive week.
We know all about the potential of Rory McIlroy's heir apparent and after an excellent start to the year, the anticipated tougher scoring conditions here in Qatar suggest he ought to be a big threat.
Richard Mansell took last week off to settle into his new home in Dubai and he's the sort of player who should love this. Mansell is among the standout ball-strikers on the circuit and his best chance so far came when he led the Dunhill Links into the final round a year and a half ago, only to be lapped by a relentless Ryan Fox.
He drove it superbly here on his first look around and improved after a slow start to only narrowly miss the cut, but with the wind up I narrowly prefer old friend/enemy ROMAIN LANGASQUE.
There's no doubt French players on the whole ought to be buzzing at the moment thanks to Matthieu Pavon's exploits and we saw evidence of that last week, when Tom Vaillant led in Bahrain on the same day Alex Levy led in South Africa.
Langasque also showed up well in the former, ultimately describing it as 'a very frustrating week', and I don't blame him. That course in Bahrain simply shouldn't be on the schedule for my money, for many reasons including the fact that the greens remain a bit silly despite the work that's been done to them since 2011.
Langasque will prefer it here in Doha, where he was 10th through 54 holes back in 2017, very early on in his career, and then opened with a 66 to lie second in 2022, still in with a chance until a disappointing final round under what were extreme conditions.
In general he's handled wind well, first as a winner of the Amateur Championship and then with a near-miss in Scotland before winning in Wales, and in terms of favouring him over Mansell he does have a wonderful short-game when firing on all cylinders – something that may prove particularly valuable if the wind does blow.
I was also encouraged to see his approach play take a notable step forward last week and that's often the missing piece of the jigsaw where this talented underachiever is concerned, so now looks the time to strike with both Doha and Kenya ideal venues for him before a return to South Africa, where he's often been a factor.
Let's not forget how close he came to earning a PGA Tour card himself last year, bogeying the last hole of the DP World Tour Championship when for a time it looked like birdie might do it. Seeing what Pavon has gone onto achieve really ought to light a fire and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't threaten a second win in the coming weeks.
Yes, we've been disappointed by Langasque before but a course like Doha, where he can hit plenty of drivers and handle the wind better than most, provides a big opportunity after signs of encouragement over in Bahrain.
Langasque is another who has only played three times so far, skipping Al Hamra despite it being a good fit, and I'm hoping ALEX FITZPATRICK's relative freshness might also be to his advantage.
Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a brilliant 12 months, earning full status on the DP World Tour in the process, and he started the season with a bang courtesy of four top-20 finishes in succession either side of Christmas.
It looks on the face of it as though his run might have ended with a bang in Bahrain, but I wouldn't expect that event to prove a reliable form guide whatsoever. Notably, Fitzpatrick actually drove it as well as he has all season and his approach play was better than in any of those previous starts, but he putted terribly.
Slow, dramatically undulating surfaces were probably to blame and we know his short-game is usually a big strength, so while he did also miss the cut narrowly on his Doha debut in October, I reckon both events have virtually no meaning and yet they've added a good 10 points onto his price.
Fitzpatrick has some links form already having been 17th in the Open, his 15th place in the Portugal Masters at the end of 2022 is also eye-catching as that's been another hugely informative guide to what happens in Doha, and I'm of the view that this is actually the perfect time to back him.
Hoping to get Moller right
I did wonder whether Scott Jamieson might use memories of his card-saving third place here in October to help land an overdue second win, but his iron play is often a weakness so I'll side with powerhouse NIKLAS MOLLER instead.
Moller ranked second off the tee and with his approaches last week and while I do maintain that the event in general won't stack up over time, where this talented Dane is concerned that jolt of improvement with his irons might prove key.
He's driving the ball beautifully again, ranking first, eighth, 10th and second in his four starts so far, and while his putter comes and goes he definitely has big weeks in him. Moller is volatile on the greens and that trait is no bad thing providing you make it pay when the putter gets hot.
He did that when seventh in the Dunhill Links in 2022, shooting an opening 63, and produced another 63 in that event last year, while he also has top-10 finishes by the coast in Mauritius and under exposed, breezy conditions in Denmark, an event Qatar winner Ferguson almost captured later on that year.
Moller hasn't looked totally convincing under the gun as yet but I'm happy to take my chances in that department and hope that he can cut Doha down to size, having contended on debut thanks to a four-under 68 in round three that only one player in the field managed to outdo.
His compatriot Marcus Helligkilde holds similar claims and is respected, but I'll head further down the betting to find HAOTONG LI on offer at a price which could look very silly.
Haotong was 40/1 in places last time out, in a stronger field than this one, and I thought he offered plenty of encouragement in producing his second top-15 driving display in three starts to begin the year.
The first of them came in the Dubai Invitational, where an improved performance following some hard work over Christmas saw his Dubai Desert Classic odds tumble from the moment betting opened on Monday.
He went off at around 100/1 for that event, one which featured Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, Tyrrell Hatton, Adrian Meronk and Cameron Young, and was in the mix all week before finishing seventh, one place ahead of Hojgaard having been one place behind him a week earlier.
No wonder he was backed for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and he almost made my staking plan at 50s, so to be shunted out having made the cut there makes absolutely no sense. Admittedly, Haotong was never a factor, but the overall balance of his form in January entitles him to a lot of respect at this level.
The explanation offered will be his course form, which was excellent at both venues, whereas he missed the cut here in 2017. However, Haotong had been off for 10 weeks to nurse an injury and still managed an opening 69, so it would be an understatement to say there's insufficient evidence as to his suitability to Doha.
Had this been a regular stop on his schedule I dare say he'd have proved that it is just fine for a player who has been third in an Open Championship and played well in the Dunhill Links, and that would also have ensured a similar price to that which many good judges were happy to take just a fortnight ago, if not a little shorter.
My worry remains his driving but that wasn't what cost him shots at Al Hamra, and if his approach play is back on-song then he's a fascinating contender. That's Haotong's strength when firing and, as a class act in this weak field, I'm very surprised bookmakers are taking such a chance. He's a bet down to 50/1.
The Celli bet...
Mike Lorenzo Vera has a good record here and I was interested to read what colleague Matt Cooper heard from him last week about Pavon's exploits on the PGA Tour. Perhaps that'll help Lorenzo Vera recover from a second-round 80 which brought his strong start to 2024 shuddering to a halt.
Daan Huizing is another shorter hitter who can be competitive. He has links pedigree from right back to his amateur days and, having not missed a cut since August and been inside the top 20 all week in the October edition of this event, he returns arguably in the best form of his life.
Huizing in particular is respected along with Shubhankar Sharma, whose Yas Links form, top-10 in the Open and quality irons make for a tempting combination, but I'll fire a final dart in the direction of FILIPPO CELLI.
Winner of the Silver Medal at St Andrews in 2022, Celli has done well since turning professional and impressed when coming through Qualifying School in November to earn his DP World Tour card for the first time.
He's still very raw but he's a fabulous driver of the ball and he's been catching the eye under conditions similar to these, first in the Open, then when 27th in Portugal, and again last spring when 12th despite a slow start to the KLM Open.
That wouldn't have been enough but then came 23rd place last week where, like Moller, the fact that he hit his irons so well outweighs an overarching concern about the reliability of the event as a whole.
Celli ranked ninth with his approaches, has scope to take another step forward in terms of what he does off the tee, seems to be improving as he goes with the putter, and might just have it in him to contend on his first trip to Doha.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 05/02/24
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