Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Qatar Masters preview and best bets
Ben Coley is backing former Ryder Cup star Thorbjorn Olesen to bounce back and win the CommercialBank Qatar Masters at Doha GC.
Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters
2pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 80/1 (BetVictor, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 160/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Oliver Wilson at 200/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
From the very first event of the year, it's been a season of change on the DP World Tour – and I don't just mean the name, one which underlines how bad an idea it is to sell naming rights to a company which may or may not find itself embroiled in a scandal at some stage down the line. I mean, who among us could've seen this coming?
Anyway, change: Yas Links, Al Hamra, Muthaiga, Pecanwood and Steyn City have all made their debuts on the circuit, with only the Emirates Course in Dubai representing genuine familiarity. It is then comforting to return to Doha GC for the Qatar Masters, a course which hosted the event from 1998 to 2019, before fairway-finders were given the respite of a different test over at Education City. Or else it should be.
The trouble is, even Doha now poses a few questions, despite all that we know about it. Since 2019, several greens have been reshaped and all of them covered in a new type of grass, paspalum, which we saw at Yas Links and Al Hamra as well as on the Asian Tour in the Saudi International. Combine that with a forecast suggesting serious wind at the weekend, and any comfort derived from familiarity quickly dissipates.
That said, it's possible to argue that wind in particular should only strengthen the one key pointer from past renewals here: that searches for form clues should begin not across the city, not even across the Gulf, but in the UK and Ireland and in particular on links courses which are by the sea.
This isn't a links course, but it is exposed to the elements and demands shots we don't always see. One look at the roll-of-honour and it's impossible to escape the fact that if you've played well in an Open Championship, you'll probably like it here: Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Paul Lawrie have won both, and Qatar champions Adam Scott, Thomas Bjorn and Sergio Garcia will all feel they ought to have. Chris Wood is so comfortable playing links golf he finished fifth in the Open as an amateur, and Branden Grace, twice a winner at Doha, shot the only 62 in major history at Birkdale.
Unfortunately, we don't exactly have a wealth of major championship form in a field like this but we do have some winners of the Dunhill Links, and I really like both THORBJORN OLESEN and OLIVER WILSON at the prices.
Olesen couldn't get a game in events co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour but I'm not sure they'd have been all that suitable anyway, and perhaps fresh is the time to catch him as he returns to a course he's familiar with.
Second (2016) and third (2014) here in the past as well as right in the mix when 22nd in 2013, Olesen has shown a liking for Doha and there are plenty in here who've either never played it, or at least concede a big experience edge to those like the Dane who used to come here every year.
It's a course he says he likes a lot and his record throughout the Middle East is excellent, with second place in Abu Dhabi, third in the Dubai Desert Classic and eighth place just last November in the Dubai Championship. Ninth and 12th in the Open, he has that box ticked, too, and the aforementioned Dunhill Links (first and second) correlates obviously well.
Less obvious perhaps is Verdura in Sicily, but that coastal, exposed course has been a brilliant guide, too. Joakim Lagergren was beaten in a play-off in Doha before one there, and the man he got the better of, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, went on to finish second here. Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses, and when Olesen won at Verdura, he beat a subsequent Qatar Masters champion, the aforementioned Wood.
From just three visits to Verdura that's quite the correlation and again we're talking about the same kind of golf, for all the backdrop may look different in each case. Olesen then is clearly a player who has the tools – or at least he did, before his career spiralled after some appalling behaviour aboard a flight home from the USA in 2019, which resulted in a court case which only came to a conclusion in December. Olesen was acquitted, but made clear the remorse he felt, and the impact it had had on his game.
I won't be the only one hoping we might see big improvements this year and although it's been a slow start on paper, note that he narrowly missed both cuts at Al Hamra. And best of all, when we saw him last he produced his strongest strokes-gained approach statistics since his DP World Tour suspension was lifted, this time complemented by a solid performance off the tee only for his short-game to go AWOL.
A week earlier, at the same course, Olesen was dynamite on and around the greens so the pieces appear to be there, it's just a case of putting them together. It may be no coincidence that his best result of the year so far came the only time he took on a course he knew well and he's got every chance to improve on it at Doha, one of his old favourites, in a much weaker field than was the case in Dubai.
The case for Wilson also relies on his victory in the Dunhill Links, one of the highlights of the last decade on the DP World Tour. It was a massive shock given his position in the game at the time, but Wilson was a former runner-up in the event who had been right in the mix a year earlier, and he's long been comfortable by the coast.
Although never a factor at Verdura, he was 12th last November in Portugal which is another exposed course offering some clues as to who might go well here, and he's done that in the past. Indeed half of his eight starts at Doha have resulted in top-20 finishes, not bad given his struggles over the years, and he was runner-up here having led through 54 holes in 2019.
Back in 2014, Wilson stated that Doha was his favourite among the Middle East courses so he'll be delighted they're returning here and it comes at a good time, as he's been driving the ball really well lately. That's the area of the game he struggled so badly with when falling down to the bottom of the world rankings and if he keeps on hitting it well off the tee, he'll find more chances to add to that sole win at the Old Course.
Last week he was 33rd after a quiet final round but it was a good effort given he'd flown in late having got into the field as an alternate, and a long, soft, easy course isn't really what he wants. Doha will be much more suitable and though it's rare he strings four rounds together, it could happen here if his long-game carries over from one week to the next.
Favourites hard to fault but value lies elsewhere
At the top of the market, favouritism is being fought out by players who've been right in the mix lately. Dean Burmester was furious to give away a good lead on Sunday and both Adri Arnaus and Jordan Smith will have been disappointed at the way they exited a play-off won by Pablo Larrazabal before that, so perhaps the easygoing George Coetzee is the best of them.
Like Olesen, he was among my eye-catchers in a feature written after that fortnight at Al Hamra, and he placed for us next time at 40/1. His form here at Doha is outstanding – eight starts, seven cuts made, five top-10s – and we saw when he won in Portugal a year and a half ago that when he's comfortable, he's deadly. Indeed you could argue he's a player who wins when smack-you-in-the-face obvious, which he is here.
But at a good chunk bigger, I'm going back to ROMAIN LANGASQUE.
The Frenchman missed the places by one shot having made just one bogey all week at Pecanwood a fortnight ago, and then did the same thing at Steyn City, playing the final 10 holes in two-over to finish eighth.
Thankfully we weren't on him there so finishes of ninth and eighth can be seen for what they are, welcome and positive steps forward after an eye-catching but ultimately frustrating start to the campaign.
Every aspect of his game has been excellent at times but key to siding with him here is that toughening conditions will absolutely suit. He was the best iron player in the winds of Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, his victory at Celtic Manor came in eight-under, and to be truthful I wouldn't have sided with him in the MyGolfLife Open had I thought scoring would be that low.
Langasque played well here in 2017, sitting 10th through 54 holes, and as a former winner of the Amateur Championship who has been third in a Scottish Open, he can deal with whatever the weather brings come the weekend.
Marcus Armitage and Callum Shinkwin are both hitting it so well that they have to be respected, but I do worry about their respective short-game issues once the wind increases and more greens are missed. Shinkwin's record here is encouraging and he might overpower the place if it stays calm and he's the last off the list having been an unfortunate runner-up in the Scottish Open almost five years ago.
Perhaps oddly, both Education City winners make some appeal, Jorge Campillo and Antoine Rozner plainly class acts in this grade whose form is improving, but they've caught the eye of punters early on and I'll have to let them go in favour of some bigger-priced alternatives.
Sami Valimaki and Sebastian Soderberg were potentially among them but they too have been latched onto so I'm going to start with JASON SCRIVENER, who looks a smashing bet at 100/1.
Ninth on his last start in the Middle East, Scrivener was only adding another excellent performance to a long list of them in this part of the world. His best DP World Tour form so far was second place in Abu Dhabi, and he's also been inside the top seven twice in the Dubai Desert Classic, and 10th in the DP World Tour Championship.
Last year he finished well to take 21st at Education City and on his previous start in Qatar, he crept into things here to finish 19th, a rare bright spot in a pretty miserable start to the campaign.
Elsewhere, fifth at Verdura on debut came courtesy of an excellent weekend in difficult conditions, and just last year he was third in Denmark before missing out on a great chance to win in Sweden. Both courses are exposed and, unlike the last fortnight in South Africa, the ball would bounce when it landed.
He's five-from-five in terms of cuts made in Portugal too so everywhere you look there are hints that Doha is a good fit for a capable operator whose best putting performances last year came either in the Middle East (third Abu Dhabi, seventh Dubai), or on the paspalum greens of Kiawah Island in the US PGA Championship.
Straight-hitting Alejandro Canizares has two top-10s here plus a string of other good performances and is another who could improve after a difficult fortnight on long, soft courses, while Kristoffer Broberg won at a links-like course last year, also played well in Portugal and at the Dunhill Links, and is a former Scottish Open runner-up.
Nino Bertasio has a 64 to his name at Verdura, fourth in a Scottish Open, 15th in a Dunhill Links and fifth in Portugal after an opening 61 so he too popped up everywhere I looked (first-round leader, maybe?), but my final vote goes to the classy EDDIE PEPPERELL.
He won here in 2018 having started the year MC-MC-MC-44 and having been fourth previously, it's clear that Doha is an excellent fit. After beating Oli Fisher to this title he went on to bag a top-10 finish at Carnoustie, and alongside that he has three Scottish Open top-10s, seventh in the Dunhill Links, and top-fives at Lahinch and Royal County Down.
In other words he's got links and seaside form in spades and though it's been a poor start to 2022, I wouldn't have expected him to be competitive at Al Hamra, one of the most driver-heavy courses on the circuit now. Since then we've only seen him at Muthaiga, and a second-round 69 resulted in a missed cut by one shot.
Solid approach play stats there offer hope that he can lean on his biggest strength, which is his iron play, and at this course I'm willing to take a chance at three-figure prices.
Posted at 1730 GMT on 21/03/22
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