Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Open de France preview and best bets
Eight-time DP World Tour champion Thorbjorn Olesen is one of five selections for Ben Coley ahead of the Open de France.
Golf betting tips: Open de France
2pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 25/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Matteo Manassero at 35/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adrian Otaegui at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Dan Bradbury at 160/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It's been a wonderful autumn on the DP World Tour and while the best is behind us, there's plenty still to come: France, Spain, Korea, and then a small break before the new-look end to the season. Technically, that end is the DP World Tour Play-Offs, but I'm not going to call it that, not unless the sponsors offer a significant discount for my future logistics needs.
Anyway, enough negativity, because you and me, we love the (FedEx – 'Where now meets next') Open de France. This is proper European Tour staple material, the sort of old national open upon which some believe new world orders can be built. And if you don't rank it alongside those fine events we've had in Spain and Northern Ireland lately, do you know what? Byron Nelson never won an Open, but he did win an Open de France.
Perhaps that sense of history is why Billy Horschel is back for a second go or perhaps it's more to do with the new sponsors, but one way or another the field is pleasingly sound. Matt Wallace, the Hojgaard twins, Niklas Norgaard and one or two more will hope to make Ryder Cup debuts next year, while Justin Rose is determined to add a Bethpage swansong to his diary and, given the timing, I don't know as we could've asked for more. It is, after all, October.
Host venue Le Golf National is a curate's egg of a golf course: architecturally dull, perhaps, but inarguably a setting which promotes drama and excitement. Maybe they're not all that tournament golf should strive to be but certainly they ought to be at the top of any list and we saw at this summer's Olympic Games that, even with conditions a bit easier and the standard a lot higher, disaster is never far away in Paris, especially down the home stretch.
Criticism of the layout chiefly reflects an absence of choice. There are any number of holes where you play to a position and the emphasis here is on staying out of trouble, particularly with approach shots which are often threatened by water. All three champions since the European Tour modernised with strokes-gained data hit quality irons, then along came Scottie Scheffler to rank first on his way to gold.
One way or another, limiting mistakes is vital and this is why you'll see on the roll-of-honour some of the steadiest golfers in Europe. Tommy Fleetwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Graeme McDowell, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Martin Kaymer all won at Le Golf National, while Francesco Molinari went 5-0-0 in a Ryder Cup which showed just how you do it and, thanks to a malfunctioning US side, just how you don't.
The way JORDAN SMITH hits the ball works anywhere, but it's around courses like this one that his skills are accentuated.
Last year he produced one of the best tee-to-green displays you're ever likely to see at this level, settling for second in the end, while he was second in the tee-to-green stats when seventh a year earlier.
Smith is the most reliable golfer on the circuit if you use its old statistical metrics, fairways and greens, and he's not been worse than third in the season-long GIR stats over the past three seasons, currently ranking second only to Tommy Fleetwood, who has played far fewer events.
Look closely at those greens-in-regulation stats and you'll soon realise that Fleetwood (1st), Alex Noren (3rd) and Wiesberger (5th) are all past champions here, that eighth-ranked Yannik Paul has an excellent course record, and that so does ninth-ranked Joost Luiten.
Go back to last year's equivalent and you'll see Open de France champion Ryo Hisatsune in 19th, while contenders for the title Nathan Kimsey, Ewen Ferguson, Paul, Alex Bjork and Rasmus Hojgaard also feature inside the top 20.
This is golf by numbers, but that's exactly what Le Golf National is all about and to some degree so is Green Eagle, where Smith earned his first DP World Tour title by successfully navigating a path through the hazards which line that difficult course.
It's at such venues that this classy ball-striker is almost certain to feature if he putts well, and it's improvements with that club which have powered a better run since August, with form figures of MC-12-12-7-18-35 since the Tour returned from its summer break.
Finishing mid-pack at the Dunhill Links is just fine by me as it's not a good form guide and would've been a shame had a top 10 therefore ruined his price for this. As it is, anything 20/1 and bigger is considered well worth taking.
Great Dane ready to win again
While the Dunhill Links seldom helps solve the events which follow it, I do wonder if the Olympic Games could be a good guide as there are a handful of players who've been to Le Golf National fairly recently. That alone is bound to help, but it's also sure to bring back very fond memories for those who represented their country.
Thomas Detry fared well for Belgium but I'm keener on THORBJORN OLESEN, who was only just behind him when 14th representing Denmark.
Runner-up here on debut when denied by Thomas Levet, Olesen struggled for a few years until finishing third in 2017, and since then has added finishes of 20th, 10th, and that effort at Paris 2024.
Throughout the last three, those for which we've had strokes-gained data, his long-game has been particularly taking. First in the tee-to-green stats in 2022 with by far his best performance of the season in that regard, he ranked sixth a year later, then 13th in high-class company behind Scheffler.
Strong off the tee (fifth, fourth and 27th in the strokes-gained charts) and even better with his approaches (seventh, fifth, 12th), Olesen has shown that he knows precisely how to pick apart this golf course and given you wouldn't necessarily consider it to be an ideal fit for an occasionally wayward driver, there's clearly something about it he loves.
If he can putt as well as he so often has down the years, as he is currently and as he did when going close in 2011 and 2017, the Dane should have a big chance. Given that he tends to take his share of those, I'm particularly sweet on him following top-15s either side of Wentworth, one course he really hasn't been able to figure out.
This one he has and that makes him one of the key dangers to Horschel and Olesen's compatriot Rasmus Hojgaard at the very front of the betting, especially after he captured the Dunhill Links team event on Sunday, his brilliant Saturday move a key part of that success alongside Dermot Desmond.
One other factor to note is that both Olesen and Smith are in the mix for PGA Tour cards via the Race to Dubai. For Olesen, the fact that he's here, then in Spain next week, confirms he's all but given up on retaining his status via the FedEx Cup, where he languishes in 160th, and is intent on doing it via the DP World Tour's pathway once more.
MATTEO MANASSERO is currently set for the third of 10 cards and while you can very easily argue it could be a bad thing for him to earn one, it'll certainly be his target with one more big performance required.
And it could come here, as like Olesen he fared well in the Olympic Games with four sub-70 rounds, confirming that his poor recent record in the Open de France is a reflection of the state of his game at the time, rather than any issues with the layout.
Manassero was a factor here early in his career, with four top-30s in his first four goes before his tumble down the golfing pyramid, and 18th place behind Scheffler and co, with a misfiring putter, is form which would give him a big chance in an Open de France.
I'm surprised we can take upwards of 30/1, too, because he was about that price at Wentworth, where the field was much stronger, and was right in the mix to win the thing. That had been true a week earlier, when we were on at 66/1 in a Rory McIlroy-headlined Irish Open, and this is a couple of steps below both those events.
The reason he's been eased out is a missed cut in the Open de Espana, but that course probably isn't for him and, after a run of improved putting, that club let him down. Perhaps as much as anything that was a bit of a hangover from contending two Sundays in a row, either of which would've been the biggest win of his career.
Rested now and returning to Paris two months on from representing his country, Manassero deserves to be shorter in the betting and has to be preferred to Wiesberger this time. Note that Wiesberger was 33/1 to Manassero's 66s in Northern Ireland and while his form since that event began reads 63-MC, Manassero's is 3-4-MC.
In broad terms I believe markets overreact to things like one missed cut or one line of course form and in Manassero's case, he'd be a good deal shorter had he simply not been to Madrid. I like his chances here if the putter fires again.
Arrow-straight Adrian has ideal set-up
Sticking with the Olympics theme for a line or two more, I did wonder whether the Dutch pair might have a bit to prove back in Paris. Joost Luiten and Darius van Driel both qualified to play in the Games, but their own Olympics committee had set arbitrary parameters which neither met and, despite a successful court appeal, they were forced to sit it out after missing the deadline for entries.
Luiten has an excellent course record and general profile, too, but he's gone cross-handed when chipping and his short-game remains a big enough concern. Van Driel therefore could be the more interesting at three-times the price as he's won this year, he's neat and tidy, and while his record here is so-so, he's shown he can score at the course.
So has Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen via the 2022 Eisenhower Trophy and he's got a bit more to play for than you might think, as another big week after his top-10 at the Dunhill Links could earn him an improved category for 2025. Challenge Tour graduates don't always get into the events they'd like to, so it ought to be a genuine goal before he drops back down for the Challenge Tour Grand Final in a few weeks.
Neergaard-Petersen is respected with the price adjustment from last week by no means unreasonable, but the nous of ADRIAN OTAEGUI is preferred around here.
Otaegui has made four cuts in a row now and top-20s at Royal County Down and Wentworth are particularly encouraging when you consider that this course suits him more, and the field is a good deal weaker despite one or two Ryder Cup candidates.
Last week's lowly finish at the Dunhill Links is perfect as he's played that event nine times and only once cracked the top 40, so as with Smith it's better that we're not having to accept a shorter priced based on a form line which never tells us much.
Jon Rahm and Rafa Cabrera Bello have both won the Open de Espana after missed cuts in Scotland and before that, Eddie Pepperell and Alex Bjork duelled for the British Masters after they'd both been non-factors in the Dunhill Links. It's of course no bad thing to have played well, but nor is it a problem if you faded away as Otaegui did.
Earlier this year we saw the Spaniard flick the switch in China after a run of solid but unspectacular golf and we know what sort of test he wants, having won at Valderrama and Rinkven down the years. Otaegui is about the most accurate driver across both leading men's pro golf tours and not many hit more greens than he does, either.
It stands to reason then that his record at Le Golf National is excellent, even if he took a while to crack it. Over his last six visits he has four top-20s, a best of seventh (led at halfway) and just one narrow missed cut, and more recently he's been excellent from tee-to-green when 13th in 2022 and 16th last year.
Clearly, we'll need his troublesome putter to behave but hopefully it's one of those weeks where they all go in and the TV commentators tell us that's him in a nutshell. It really isn't, but he putted fine at Wentworth and fine will do around a course he loves, one where he's scrambled well on the rare occasion one of his approaches has gone astray.
Alex Fitzpatrick produced an excellent effort here early on in his pro career but a downturn in fortunes over the last few weeks hasn't been reflected in the betting, so my other shortlisted players are all at big prices. They include Matthias Schwab (probably wrongly) and Francesco Laporta, both good statistical fits, and if the latter putts well he could join Manassero in the mix.
That club has been a problem though and while it's also held DAN BRADBURY back, things have been looking up over the past fortnight.
He missed the cut by one in the Dunhill Links but signed off with a round of 67 at Carnoustie on Saturday, a score that Olesen was the only man to better around the more difficult of the three courses used.
Prior to that, Bradbury had finished with a round of 65 at Wentworth where he'd been in the mix before a poor third round, then putted better in Spain where he again played well on Sunday for a top-40 finish, and in general he looks to have taken a few steps forward since the August resumption.
At 33rd in fairways, 48th in greens and 11th in strokes-gained approach, his stats are virtually identical to a fine rookie season and we know the deal with Bradbury: if he putts to a decent standard he can be competitive, but that club does have the potential to ruin a lot of good work.
Still, it's started to look better lately and having been inside the top 15 at halfway in two good events before the Dunhill Links, a return to a more suitable course combined with the ease in grade means we may not need a great deal more from the weakest club in his bag.
And as well as that narrow missed cut last week helping nudge out the price, so does a narrow missed cut on his Le Golf National debut, where he shot 67-76. Back then he'd gone a couple of months without a top-50 finish and I'm hopeful he can build on it at what's a big price.
Form such as 10th at Rinkven and eighth at the Belfry tells us more about what sort of test he prefers and I don't think it's a coincidence that his best golf lately came in Italy, where a former Open de France champion won.
Posted at 1700 BST on 07/10/24
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