Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Open de Espana preview and best bets
Ben Coley has six selections at three-figure prices for the Open de Espana, where Jon Rahm is the headline act.
Golf betting tips: Open de Espana
1pt e.w. Alejandro del Rey at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Eugenio Chacarra at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gavin Green at 110/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Casey Jarvis at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Filippo Celli at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jeong Weon Ko at 300/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
By now we all surely accept that the key to a long and prosperous career in golf is a functioning long-game. The yips has ruined a few careers, but the golfing graveyard is packed out by those who could no longer keep their drives within this realm. Drive for show, putt for dough is a flawed maxim, but drive for long-term success, putt for the odd bright spot doesn't have quite the same ring to it.
Still, you can win a tournament with a short-game, and in last year's Open de Espana, that's what Matthieu Pavon did. Playing in his 185th DP World Tour event, in the city of his grandfather's birth, the stars well and truly aligned. Many times during those previous 184 starts, Pavon had greater control of his golf ball, but in this one that golf ball kept disappearing into the hole. When all is said and done that really is all that matters.
I can't help but draw a line, a chaotic, squiggly line, from that to Rasmus Hojgaard's career-best triumph in the Irish Open, where he holed out a bunker shot after a poor approach to cap one of the best short-game weeks of his life and propel himself ahead of runner-up Rory McIlroy. Hojgaard has hit it much better and lost, too.
After Pavon won this last year, he went on to produce a barnstorming finish to the DP World Tour Championship, for which he earned a PGA Tour card at Rasmus Hojgaard's expense. With that in his pocket, he rocked up at Torrey Pines and made history, the first Frenchman to win out there. And in doing so, he got the better of one Nicolai Hojgaard, whose bid to become the first Dane to do it remains uncompleted.
What if Pavon hadn't chipped in and holed the lot and captured this title in Spain? Would Rasmus instead have gone on to play on the PGA Tour (yes, probably)? Would Nicolai have therefore won at Torrey Pines (no, probably not)? Would Rasmus have been out playing the Procore Championship instead of the Irish Open in a bid to top up his FedEx Cup points (all right, this is getting silly now)?
Is Rahm worth taking on?
If you think that's a dodgy intro, then consider what I wrote last year: 'You don't have to listen to Jon Rahm speak for very long to understand how much he cares about the history of the sport he plays, and he's going for another slice of it in the Open de Espana.'
Rahm is still chasing history, able to do so having lodged an appeal against DP World Tour sanctions, and 3/1 would be a decent price if he turned up here in peak health. The trouble is, he withdrew from the LIV Golf team final last week citing flu-like symptoms and while I'd want to see a thermometer before taking him at his word (once bitten and all that), it's unlikely he'd have pulled out without good reason.
Less jokingly, Rahm then withdrew from the Open de Espana pro-am and with his wife due to give birth very soon, I would imagine there's at least some doubt as to his participation. He will though do all he can to tee it up given the repercussions concerning DP World Tour membership requirements, so there's certainly a chance he's not as focused as backers of a 3/1 shot would like and there's too much to be taken on trust.
Tommy Fleetwood makes more appeal as he's only 9/1 from 10s last week and this is a weaker field. He struck the ball wonderfully, too, and with eight places on offer you'll only have to dodge another poor putting week to get an each-way return. Fleetwood is the biggest threat to Rahm in my view, narrowly ahead of Tyrrell Hatton in what is a good turnout for the tournament it must be said, at the top end at least.
With the big names in mind, and the fact that one of them usually wins these DP World Tour events, I'm going to try to find the sweet spot of caution and speculation with some outsiders with the games for Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.
Generally speaking, you compete here by bullying the short par-fives and driveable 18th and with rough generally sparse, big-hitters have a potential advantage, especially those who can scramble. Again, that probably has something to do with earning birdies with good chip shots and tap-in putts.
We see that opportunity through Zander Lombard, Min Woo Lee, Adri Arnaus, Grant Forrrest, Wil Besseling, Wilco Nienaber and a handful of others and while driving distance is not a prerequisite, I do believe that if anyone is going to upstage the handful of world-class golfers at the head of the betting, it'll be someone who has made two or three eagles and generally relied on giving it a whack.
To be clear, through the likes of Edoardo Molinari and Fabrizio Zanotti there's no doubt that fairways-and-greens golf can work around this relatively short course. It's just that beating those big names might need something more explosive, and this is a better fit for such players than the last four venues on the DP World Tour.
Few hit the ball further than ALEJANDRO DEL REY and having made his last three cuts, I'm hopeful the pocket rocket has his game in good enough shape to compete now back on home soil – he is in fact from Madrid, so he's bound to be especially popular in the capital city.
It's been a bit of a frustrating year for del Rey, who started very brightly but has fizzled out a little. However, he played well for three of the four rounds in both Switzerland and Northern Ireland, and there wasn't much wrong with his performance at Wentworth last week, either.
Having been 15th in the Scottish Open where he sat fifth at halfway, he's not been far away under suitable conditions and it's not a coincidence that his best golf of the season came in Singapore. Jesper Svensson won that event and it's played at a course where two of the longest drivers on the circuit could get on the front foot.
Club de Campo isn't quite in the same category but a good driving week for the long hitters opens up all kinds of opportunities and if del Rey can avoid the odd destructive one that has hurt his numbers lately, then I'm certainly of the view that this is a good set-up for him.
The fact that he ranked third in the tee-to-green stats in last year's Open de Espana underlines that view and while he's been a bit iffy around the greens this summer, a problem which has emerged from seemingly nowhere, on the flip side he's generally been putting well lately.
Ultimately, we're gambling on him bullying those scoring holes and of those at three-figure prices, nobody is better equipped to do so.
Green light for Gavin
GAVIN GREEN has been on my radar for a little while now and last week's one-shot missed cut at Wentworth was ideal with this in mind.
Anything better and we'd probably have suffered with the price but as it is, Green was five over through 10 holes at a course where he's always struggled yet almost made the weekend. Over the following 26 he was six-under, making just one mistake, and among the seven birdies he made, six were tap-ins, the seventh from just outside of 10 feet.
That's about as eye-catching as it gets and with his approach play generally improved this summer, this long and strong driver who typically putts well has his game in a very good place. He'd made eight cuts in a row before the BMW PGA Championship.
Green was 28th here last year which is encouraging in itself, but like del Rey it ought to have been better as he ranked 10th in the tee-to-green stats. The third-best driver in the field for the week with what were season's-best numbers, one of his average putting displays would've had him in the mix.
We came really close to landing a 66/1 winner with Green when he was runner-up in Prague a couple of seasons ago, at a course where you have to take apart the set of reachable par-fives. That's the task here and having been five-under for eight of them at Wentworth, everything seems in place for a big week.
David Puig is among the most interesting options at around the 33-40/1 mark as he's had a good year played largely on the LIV Golf circuit, but at close to three-times the price I prefer EUGENIO CHACARRA.
He joined LIV immediately upon turning professional so we've not seen much of him elsewhere, but Chacarra was a top-class amateur before that and his best form this year is of a high standard.
The reason for the price is perhaps that he's been quiet in his last three solo starts but it looks like he played quite nicely in the team championship over the weekend, and he was competitive at the Spanish event in July following third place on the Asian Tour in Morocco.
Unlike Puig he has won a LIV event, too, and I like the fact that he's also from Madrid as he likely knows this course well.
A big-hitter who has also taken down a decent Asian Tour event in Scotland, for my money he has to be ranked ahead of the two Spanish amateurs, for all that Jose Luis Ballester and Luis Masaveu are both very promising, and at three-figure prices I'll chance his game being where he needs it to be.
Marco Penge is tempting as he produced his best performance of 2024 last time, 12th place in Northern Ireland getting him up just inside the cut-off for DP World Tour cards.
One more big week is all that he needs and having won the Challenge Tour Grand Final on his last trip to Spain, I wondered at first whether he might produce it here in Madrid, at a course he could dominate off the tee. Penge is an awesome driver, ranking first in distance and 12th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and we saw how much damage he can do with that club when he led the field at Royal County Down.
With his approach play showing signs of improvement and the putter well capable of firing, there was quite a lot to like. The trouble is there are few here who are so vulnerable around the green and that's off-putting at Club de Campo, so with only one firm offering 200s and his overall form this season not especially compelling, I'll leave him out.
Penge's Grand Final win was enough to pinch Road to Mallorca honours from CASEY JARVIS and the young South African is one I like at a big price this week.
He was the leading driver in Switzerland two starts ago, finishing eighth overall, and backed that up with his best tee-to-green display of the season in the Irish Open where, unfortunately, the putter misfired.
That club has been up and down (he ranked fifth the week before) whereas Jarvis's long-game has been reliable lately and, while not in Penge's league, he does give the ball a hit, too. Jarvis's driving has helped conjure this improved form we've seen over his past two starts and at 72nd in Race to Dubai points, he has a lot to play for with the top 70 qualifying for Abu Dhabi.
Jarvis won the lot as an amateur back home, then comfortably graduated from the Challenge Tour, and contended straight away as a DP World Tour member. He certainly has the potential to do something special soon and his game looks in a great place.
France to land another KO blow
Romain Langasque won the Spanish Amateur once upon a time and is putting together another excellent if frustrating year. He could easily bounce back after a stumbling finish saw him miss the cut at Wentworth, but the price seems about right so I'll hope that it's JEONG WEON KO who succeeds Matthieu Pavon and keeps the title in France.
Yes, it's a little fanciful to suggest he might do that but Ko has a high ceiling which has seen him bag a couple of top-fives this season, including as recently as the start of this month. There, in the British Masters, he was bang in the firing line all week and stuck at it to boost his chances of making those season-ending events in the Middle East.
Now 59th in the Race to Dubai, he's kept on progressing since joining the paid ranks and his game has a likeable quality in that he's highly volatile, but can do everything very well on his day. In fact at various points this year he's been one of the best drivers, iron players, scramblers and putters, and when he pieces things together he tends to hang around.
As for why he might do it here, Ko signed off on the front foot despite finishing a lowly 64th last year, then went on to produce a card-saving performance in the Andalucia Masters. Those fond memories of Spain may help and it was in Mallorca a year earlier that he entered the Challenge Tour Grand Final on the bubble before earning his DP World Tour card.
Club de Campo ought to suit, as he gives it a thrash and has what they'd call 'Spanish hands' were he indeed Spanish, and having made four cuts in a row he's playing just fine.
A strong start at Wentworth followed a strong finish in Northern Ireland, but this might suit him much better and he's one where I see a heck of a lot of upside at about 300/1.
Finally, FILIPPO CELLI is worth a speculative go to build on 30th place in Northern Ireland, where he was a shot outside the places entering the final round.
Celli went 10-10-9 across three events in Europe at the beginning of summer and having hit the ball really well when returning to something close to that form last time out, I'm willing to accept the fact that links form doesn't always translate.
He's another powerful driver whose short-game is good (50th in scrambling) and I like the fact we're back in Spain, as he won the European Amateur at El Saler and came closest to a professional breakthrough when losing a Challenge Tour play-off in Cadiz last summer.
Celli also has course experience having missed the cut here in 2022, one of his first few professional starts. No doubt the pressure of playing for money and points played a part in three late bogeys to fall the wrong side of the cut line.
He returns now having ranked third in strokes-gained approach and 11th in strokes gained tee-to-green last time out, and despite those three top-10s he has more to do from 129th in the Race to Dubai.
Posted at 0930 BST on 24/09/24
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