Golf expert Ben Coley has a good record in the Open de Espana and is hoping a familiar formula can unearth the dangers to Jon Rahm.
Golf betting tips: Open de Espana
1pt e.w. Hennie du Plessis at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Nick Bachem at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Alejandro del Rey at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Alex Levy at 175/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
You don't have to listen to Jon Rahm speak for very long to understand how much he cares about the history of the sport he plays, and he's going for another slice of it in the Open de Espana.
Rahm has won the event three times already, twice here at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, and one more will see him surpass Seve Ballesteros. It seems inevitable and there are those who would use similar language to describe his chance this week – hence odds of just 2/1 virtually across the board.
On a strictly numbers basis, that price is perfectly justified. Rahm is three from seven in Spain and has only played poorly at Valderrama. He's won eight times in just 23 DP World Tour starts, a few of them in much stronger fields than this. And his aggregate margin of victory in two wins at this course, one he hardly knew before, is 11 shots.
Every golfer is vulnerable to the sport that so often humbles them, and Rahm did trade odds-on during the first round two years ago only to finish 17th, but none of us would be at all surprised were he to make history. Sky Bet offer just 5/1 that he wins by three or more shots and while these are numbers that don't quite make sense in the world of golf betting, they're hard to argue with.
Punters will have the option to bet without him if they wish and they always have the option to not bet at all, which was my first instinct. Rahm, after all, looked back to his very best at the Ryder Cup, has had time to recover, and will not be found lacking for focus once tee peg is in the ground.
There is though one potential chink in the armour: how much has Rahm played since Rome? However desperate he is to win this title for a fourth time, surely he put the clubs away for at least a few days. And when Rahm did trade odds-on and fail to sustain his effort in this event, it was immediately after the Ryder Cup. In 2018, following his debut in Paris, he returned with rounds of 73-76 in China and was 16 shots off the halfway lead.
Power vital to toppling the favourite
Either way, we profited from 125/1 shot Zander Lombard last year, from Adri Arnaus at 60/1 in 2021 and from Nacho Elvira at 125/1 in 2018, all sent off at inflated odds thanks to Rahm, and there is at least an angle to pursue. Club de Campo has been all about the scoring holes, namely three par-fives and the driveable 18th, and its generally sparse rough has given the big hitters a big advantage.
With scrambling also key, it's no wonder Min Woo Lee took to this place on debut and that is a formula with the potential to help uncover some of the key dangers to the favourite. Hit it long, chip and putt your way to cheap birdies and the odd eagle, and worry about the Basque behemoth if and when it comes to that on Sunday.
Justin Rose is half tempting as a win-only bet, buoyed no doubt by his Ryder Cup heroics and a former winner in Spain who has the tools for this course, but beyond him the front of the market really didn't appeal much.
My favourite selection is NICK BACHEM, who blasted his way to the Jonsson Workwear Open title for us back in March and may find Club de Campo equally to his liking.
Bachem is one of the most powerful players on the DP World Tour, ranking fourth in driving distance, and he's been back to his best off the tee lately. In Prague that meant fourth place, his best effort since winning, and he was seventh at the K Club soon after – a stronger field than this headed by Rory McIlroy.
After a predictable missed cut at Wentworth he outperformed expectations to finish 20th in France, his approach play this time doing the donkey work, and last week's Dunhill Links performance offers more encouragement as he was back thrashing that driver successfully to finish 25th.
Form in Scotland, a near-washout reduced to 54 holes, isn't worth all that much here but in Bachem's case it's part of a string of solid efforts which now have him 52nd on the Race to Dubai, within touching distance of a place alongside Rahm at the DP World Tour Championship.
That would be some achievement for an all-guns-blazing rookie like Bachem and, as a proven winner at all levels with some good form in Spain to his name, I expect his run to continue. That alone makes him of interest at 80/1.
One place ahead of Bachem in those driving distance rankings is ALEJANDRO DEL REY and the similarities don't end there – he also carded a final-round 70 at Carnoustie to share 25th in the Dunhill Links.
For both him and Bachem that's about as good as I could've expected and this monster hitter should be far more at home in Spain, both figuratively and literally given that he comes from Madrid, making this a proper home game.
Del Rey missed the cut in 2019 but was an amateur at the time and, since turning professional in 2020, he's hinted at the ability which saw him produce some outstanding results at college in Arizona, where he attempted to fill the Spanish void left behind by Rahm and was a teammate of last week's Asian Tour winner, David Puig.
Perhaps del Rey and Rahm will play a practise round together and the magic will rub off on the younger man but regardless, he's been ticking over pretty nicely, had a taste of contending when third in Singapore back in February, and will find this as suitable as anything he's played all year.
It's no coincidence that both Bachem and del Rey played well in Prague, at a big-hitter golf course, and the Spaniard was 17th behind Bachem in South Africa on another such layout. Club de Campo has seen various sluggers contend and these two can add their names to the list.
Where del Rey is concerned, it's worth remembering that in 2018, Rahm held off Elvira and in 2019 he beat Samuel del Val, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Arnaus, who then duelled for the title when the tournament was next played two years later.
This event is of huge importance to Spanish players and we'll likely see a handful contend again. Many will turn to Arnaus after his improvement in Scotland, but I rate del Rey a better bet at the odds. He's just preferred to Nacho Elvira, a Madrid man who contended last week but has a poor course record.
Sebastian Garcia (formerly known as Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez) would be another Spaniard to consider as while his ball-striking numbers can be ugly, there have been a couple of better signs lately and he does often play well on home soil, including with rounds of 62 and 64 here.
More fun in the sun for Du Plessis?
South Africans also have a good record in this, no doubt enjoying the Spanish sun. There's plenty of that in the early forecast albeit with some potential for rain at the weekend and the likes of Lombard, Thriston Lawrence and an in-form HENNIE DU PLESSIS all make some sense.
Du Plessis in particular looks in excellent nick having been 10th at Wentworth and 14th in the Dunhill Links recently. He's made his last 10 cuts on the DP World Tour and is a long, accurate driver with the game for this course, especially now he's found something with the putter.
Having contended en route to eighth last year we know Club de Campo suits and that came after a missed cut at St Andrews, whereas this time he carded three excellent, under-par rounds across all three courses and signed off with an eagle at Kingsbarns for a top-15 finish.
Du Plessis will fancy his chances of adding to an excellent record in Spain, one that shows four top-10 finishes from six starts and just one worse than 20th, and so do I.
He's certainly got plenty of ability and while wins are a little thin on the ground so far, the fact he could push Charl Schwartzel all the way in the first big-money LIV Golf event bodes well for his chances of at least giving the favourite something to think about.
The other South African I looked closely at was Louis de Jager, a player of a similar make-up to Du Plessis albeit a good way further down the road.
De Jager finished just ahead of Du Plessis last year and has driven it well the last twice, returning to the levels shown in summer when he struck the ball to a standard good enough to have had a look at winning the Barbasol on the PGA Tour.
He's had his share of putting woes which explains why he could only finish 16th there but his long-game is just as good if not better than it was this time last year, and with some of his best DP World Tour form coming either at altitude or on driver-heavy courses, this one fits the bill.
Levy no lost cause
Marcus Helligkilde and Hurly Long are also of some interest along with Julien Guerrier, whose missed cut in the Open de France is easy to excuse given a terrible record at Le Golf National, and whose form in the Dunhill Links is similar.
Guerrier is at his best when driver is key, hence going close at Celtic Manor and Marco Simone, and he was third here during an otherwise poor campaign two years ago. His play of late has been of a higher standard overall and his blend of strong driving and occasionally hot putting is tempting.
I just prefer his compatriot ALEX LEVY, who comes with greater risks attached but is a considerably bigger price, too.
Levy has been 15th and 12th in two starts at Club de Campo, carding rounds of 64 and 65 along the way. He'd missed four cuts coming in back in 2019 and was also arriving off a missed cut in 2021, yet on both occasions was able to click back into gear at a course he clearly loves.
On the first occasion he ranked fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green while on the second he again struck the ball well, particularly off the tee, so a bit more luck on the greens was the only difference between missing the top 10 and landing the each-way money.
Last week's withdrawal isn't an issue as he was labouring towards the back of the field when calling it a day, perhaps in time to catch his flight out to Spain, and before that he'd been 20th at Le Golf National – his single best piece of form at that course on what was his 10th visit.
Having been ninth at the Barbasol, a driver-heavy course, and made plenty of cuts this summer there have been signs of a revival from the one-time Ryder Cup hopeful, and at 125th in the Race to Dubai he knows time is running out when it comes to keeping hold of his card for next season.
Levy has a touch of class and with just three events left to take care of business, one of them in Doha where he has an abysmal record, this next fortnight in Spain could be make or break. Back him to step up at 150/1 and bigger.
Finally, I want to give one more try to GUIDO MIGLIOZZI.
The Italian didn't do much wrong last week and once again his long-game was good, albeit that comment is based on 18 holes at St Andrews where strokes-gained data was collected.
Still, we know from his title defence in France and from top-20s in Ireland and Switzerland that he's hitting it well and with the exception of Wentworth, he's been regularly threatening to put four rounds together ever since finishing with a flourish in Japan and Korea back in April.
Although he missed the cut here in 2021, Migliozzi drove it well and simply holed nothing at a time when his long-game was very much in and out and I want to give him another chance, based on a strong record at altitude (Kenya, Crans) and form that ties in quite nicely with Arnaus.
Sixth at Valderrama and a runner-up at similar altitude in Spain on the Alps Tour, the cocksure youngster has to be worth another try at similar odds to last week even if he has tested our patience somewhat. One more go.
Posted at 0915 BST on 10/10/23
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