Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Olympic Games men's golf preview and best bets
Ben Coley has four selections for the men's golf at Paris 2024, where Rory McIlroy can add a gold medal to his CV at a course he knows better than some.
Olympics betting tips: Paris 2024
5pts win Rory McIlroy at 9/1 (bet365, BetVictor, BoyleSports)
2pts e.w. Tom Kim at 28/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Corey Conners at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 100/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
While I believe the format represents a missed opportunity, there's no denying that golf's return to the Olympics gains greater significance with every passing renewal. It's now eight years since Justin Rose took gold in Rio, and there are players set to tee off in Paris who were still very much in the formative stages of their golfing lives when Great Britain added to their medal tally thanks to Rose, already a major champion.
For Xander Schauffele in Tokyo, there was a 'can he win?' subplot for those of us who follow the sport closely, one which feels distant now. But while Schauffele answered some questions surrounding his resolve, the story as far as the wider sporting world goes was simpler. This was an experienced, world-class golfer dominating as part of a USA clean-sweep, with Nelly Korda capturing gold in the women's event.
Both these renewals were undermined by absentees and two different global crises, so Paris really ought to take us up another level. The very best players in the world are here and while it's fair to say that replacing Wyndham Clark with Bryson DeChambeau would have been beneficial to pretty much everybody bar Clark, including hopes of a successful USA defence, that really is the only major quibble.
For bettors, there are a couple of angles to consider and they relate to the course, Le Golf National, which has been a staple of the DP World (European) Tour schedule for many years now. With the one in Brazil built for the Olympics, and the one in Tokyo not part of the Japan Tour schedule for a long time, this is the first Games which features many players who know the venue inside-out.
None of the four Americans featured in the 2018 Ryder Cup held here, yet there are five members of that winning European team. It could also be significant that in the Ryder Cup, it was Justin Thomas who fared best for an outclassed US side. Thomas had been to Paris to play the Open de France earlier in the year, a scouting mission which paid off if only on a personal level. To what extent will course knowledge help this time?
Secondly, that Ryder Cup showed the world what we European golf fans knew already: that Le Golf National isn't just a difficult golf course, but a suffocating one. There are many holes here where driver isn't really an option, others where the reward for hitting it is outweighed by the risk. Water is in play throughout and while the forecast this week is glorious, it won't be a pushover.
It's reasonable to conclude that this suited Europeans more than it did Americans in 2018 – albeit there were some other factors at play – but I would caution against the assumption that it'll be the same this time. Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa control the distance of their approaches as well as they do the scale of their misses off the tee, and that's a great formula. Paris National is the archetypal fairways-and-greens course where precision goes a long way.
With Open champion Xander Schauffele the form player in the game, 'advantage Europe' might therefore be a little over the top. Still, Rory McIlroy has a strong course record, Tommy Fleetwood has won here, and Ludvig Aberg took part in the Eisenhower Trophy which Le Golf National hosted two summers ago. His Sweden side finished second and Aberg himself was seventh-best individually (David Puig fourth, Adrien Dumont de Chassart 11th, Keita Nakajima 53rd).
Finally, while it's still early days, wins for Rose (world number 12) and Schauffele (five) hint that focusing on the classiest players makes sense. With just 60 lining up, you can argue that this is actually a very good time to be backing the best of them – unlike Signature Events on the PGA Tour, which are in some ways comparable, the standard drops off quite significantly. More than a third of this field is priced at 200/1 or bigger and yet Scheffler for instance was shorter to win the US Open at a course which injected a dose of fortune.
For all of the above reasons, this looks a fine opportunity for RORY MCILROY to do what he's so often done and bounce back.
By every measure bar the one that matters most, it's been another excellent season for McIlroy, who has won three times and barely allowed his standards to drop. The only two blots on the copybook come from the last two majors, first that desperate finish to the US Open, then a missed cut at Troon.
The former we don't really need to go over again; the latter is not difficult to overlook. While players like Rose and Jon Rahm somewhat overcame it, there was a significant draw bias in the Open Championship and many who teed off early on day one were swept away, McIlroy among them.
That was the first time since April where McIlroy had failed to crack the top 15 but rather than signify a downturn in the state of his game, it should be viewed in isolation, as the kind of thing that can happen to anyone. That McIlroy was playing his first major since Pinehurst will hardly have helped, either.
Freshened up, McIlroy will fancy his chances at a course where he's been fourth and third on his last two individual starts, and played beautifully throughout the Ryder Cup until losing to a flying Thomas in the Sunday singles.
Third place came in 2016, when by his own admission he was battling some set-up and swing issues while facing questions as to why he'd elected to skip Rio. Eight years on and having dealt with questions surrounding his choice of Ireland over Britain when finishing T3 in Tokyo, missing out on a medal in the bronze play-off, it's become clear that he, like most here, puts the Olympics right up there behind the majors.
It would be a fitting accolade for McIlroy to win, an infuriating one in some ways, and his chance to do so appears really strong. As touched upon, he's nothing if not resilient, bouncing back from each of the lowest moments of his career very quickly, and I fancy him to do just that in Paris. Odds touching 10/1 in a shallow field, at a course many of his rivals don't yet know, look generous.
Returning to the idea that Thomas was simply better prepared than his teammates, I wonder whether TOM KIM will reap the rewards of having come to play in the Open de France last September.
Kim was sixth in the end, his progress halted late in round two when, having been 10-under through just 25 holes around this fearsome course, he made a couple of costly mistakes and gave back five of those shots.
Still, it was a very good effort while still nursing a foot injury and with three of his top-10 career displays having come in the UK, it helps suggest that we needn't be worried about his ability to adapt to a different challenge than the one faced in the Open or when second in the US in June.
"The Olympics is definitely up there in my mind," he said at the time. "I’m trying to use this week to prepare. I want to play well this week but also use this week to get used to the course."
Kim went on to reference the fact that as a Korean, he can gain an exemption from mandatory military service by winning a medal. His compatriots Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im did just that at the Asian Games last year, where they had to make it gold and were able to do so, and for Kim the hope is he can flourish with that incentive rather than wilt under the added pressure.
His career arc so far suggests the former is more likely than the latter and as well as the reconnaissance and the implications winning a medal would have (any medal at the Olympics, rather than gold at the Asian Games), he is a straightforwardly excellent course fit. Kim is accurate off the tee, does much of his best work with his approaches, and can be a deadly putter on the right week.
Two missed cuts in three might worry some but the first came days after he lost a play-off to Scheffler at the Travelers. He was then a solid 15th in the Scottish Open before joining McIlroy, Aberg, Viktor Hovland and plenty more in missing the cut in the Open Championship. He was in fact part of Aberg's three-ball, completed by DeChambeau, and all departed early.
I feel sure that Troon won't prove much of a form guide in the coming months, not until the next Open perhaps, and Kim can also bounce back strongly from that minor blip. He'd have looked a strong option without his scouting trip. With it he's must-bet material.
Fleetwood and Shane Lowry both have iffy course records, Fleetwood's win here the one shining light among several missed cuts and Lowry yet to crack the top 10. Still, both are strong fits on paper and would not be surprising contenders, Fleetwood having been among those who fell foul of the weather in Scotland, where Lowry gave up a fantastic opportunity before coming to Paris to carry the flag for Ireland.
They're respected but I've had COREY CONNERS in mind for this for a long time and while he doesn't have course experience, his game and Le Golf National should be a match made in heaven.
Winners here include some of the most accurate, solid and reliable golfers in Europe, one of whom, Francesco Molinari, then produced a record-breaking Ryder Cup performance. Conners, one of the sport's premiere ball-striking metronomes, has no excuses on that score.
With eight top-30s in a row he also arrives in form and he will be buzzing to even be here, as he qualified at the 11th hour with his top-10 finish at Pinehurst. For a player not known for standing tall under the gun, that might just have been a bit of a lightbulb moment ahead of two chances to represent his country, first here and then as part of Mike Weir's Presidents Cup side in his native Canada.
Conners loves Paris (granted, he's not alone on that score) and has revealed that the course isn't completely alien to him. "I have it on the simulator in the basement back home," he said. "So, I will maybe get a couple of rounds in when I get back. I’ve heard a lot of good things about it, it’s a staple on the European Tour and obviously had the Ryder Cup. A lot of guys speak highly about it."
Four major top-10s plus 11th on his Olympics debut in Japan offer some encouragement and at 40/1 in places, he's a smashing each-way bet. I've still some doubts as to what might happen on Sunday granted a winning opportunity, but no doubt whatsoever he'll fit right in at Le Golf National. Hopefully the putter holds up and allows him to show it.
The above selections confirm that I've overcome the temptation to lean fully into the European Tour angle and try to get all of the big names beaten, nevertheless there were a trio who made some appeal. Yes, the podium in Brazil was made up of elite performers and another won in Japan, but Rory Sabbatini was second and CT Pan third, having got the better of some big names in the play-off for bronze.
Shubhankar Sharma, who bagged a top-20 finish at Troon, says he's a big fan of Le Golf National and all three of his previous starts here offered some sort of promise. He's in excellent form and has something about him which suggests to me that he could make a run at a medal. Matteo Manassero is another I considered as he often started well here in his prime years and has been close to that level again throughout 2024.
The one I like best is the shortest of the three, THORBJORN OLESEN, who defied a bad set of tee-times to make the cut in the Open.
He's endured a tough time of things out on the PGA Tour but there have been some better signs since April and the move back to Europe is bound to help. Over here, he's reestablished himself as a class act with three wins in two and a bit years and the comfort of being somewhere familiar can be significant.
Eight cuts made in his last 10 gives us something tangible to work with and then we come to the course, where he was once a gallant runner-up and has since returned to go 3-MC-20-10 over his last four Open de France starts, ranking first and sixth in the tee-to-green stats over the last two. Known as an elite putter who can be wayward off the tee, it's striking how well he's driven it around here.
Olesen was of course part of the victorious Ryder Cup side six years ago, winning his singles match emphatically to end the week on a high. He had qualified for that to spare Thomas Bjorn an awkward dilemma and the fact that Denmark have asked Bjorn to go to Paris as captain of their golf teams can only be a positive when it comes to Olesen's chances.
With that in mind he's the most speculative of four selections, as a neater fit for the course than Nicolai Hojgaard. If the Open de France does prove an informative guide, he seems better value to be the leading light than the well-backed Alex Noren who is the right sort of price now.
Posted at 1700 BST on 29/07/24
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