Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Nedbank Golf Challenge preview and best bets
Ben Coley is siding with two PGA Tour players in the Nedbank Golf Challenge, which ones again takes place at Sun City.
Golf betting tips: Nedbank Golf Challenge
4pts e.w. Max Homa at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
3pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
For the UK viewer of a certain age, the Nedbank Golf Challenge has always been a special tournament. When you're young, the idea of a small field of elite golfers really doesn't have any flaws – all that matters is that you can turn on the TV at a lovely hour and, whatever the weather here, be all but certain Sun City will live up to its name.
Over the years, the tournament has changed shape somewhat, its field gradually expanding, but its international appeal has endured and so has the golf course. Setting aside who built it, and that year where they inexplicably flipped the nines, Gary Player Country Club is demanding yet fun, it's great on television, and most of all it's familiar.
On the scorecard it's extremely long, but once you combine the heat and the altitude, it doesn't quite play to its full 7,800 yards and change. That said, the scoring holes – two, nine, 10 and 14 – are the par-fives and all of them require two big hits, with shorter hitters often laying up at the ninth and 14th. We've seen many a good driver thrive here and one way or another, tee-shots are almost always demanding.
Above all else, though, good iron play is key. That's largely because while the course plays naturally shorter, these greens play artificially smaller, their clover-leaf shape making for some devilish pin positions. When you step back and walk through it, which many of us can in our minds, it's little wonder that Tommy Fleetwood took over from Lee Westwood as the Sun City specialist. These two are the archetype.
Fleetwood, Westwood, Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Nick Price, David Frost and Seve Ballesteros all won this title back-to-back and whether he manages to join that list or not, there's no better bet this week than MAX HOMA at 16/1.
Homa didn't just win last year, he was utterly dominant on his first try in the event. Fellow PGA Tour raider Justin Thomas was fourth but trailed Homa by seven strokes and once Homa hit the front on Sunday, the outcome was never really in doubt.
The idea that he could return at 16/1 for this defence in a field absent of anyone of the class of Thomas or Fleetwood would've appeared nonsensical at the time, but Homa has endured a difficult spell since finishing third at Augusta, managing just one subsequent top-10 finish and failing to make East Lake.
All of this contributed towards his decision to ditch longtime coach Mark Blackburn and take ownership of his swing and while we're still awaiting confirmation that this surprise move will pay off, I do feel the positive signs since August have been overshadowed by it.
Homa's problem all summer was that he drove the ball abysmally, but his last three starts have all been better than average, which represents a notable step forward. His putter was the second problem and the same applies. Then there's his approach play and while you have to dig for encouragement here, it was outstanding at the Presidents Cup.
We've seen Homa once since and while 27th in Japan wasn't spectacular, just seven players outscored him over the final three rounds. Given that he said he felt rusty before an opening 73, again that strikes me as a perfectly decent way to return to action four weeks on from Montreal and I dare say he'll have taken plenty from it.
From that limited field on the PGA Tour he now comes to this similarly sized, clearly weaker one on the DP World Tour and for my money he's significantly overpriced at 16/1, especially when you consider that this is a player who has won two separate events more than once, and whose record as defending champion now reads MC-10-1-8-7-13.
The top two in the betting are arguably more reliable but certainly far less prolific and the best golfer in this tournament is the one who won this title by four shots last year. At a course where the same names so often pop up, Homa stands out and is backed accordingly.
Zalatoris worth chancing on debut
Favourite Corey Conners is right out of the Fleetwood/Westwood mould and should enjoy the challenge but we haven't seen him since September and he's won twice in almost six years now. Those are reasons enough to oppose him but short-price punters should feel comfortable siding with this classy ball-striker in the top Canadian market, which he can win comfortably around Sun City.
It was much more tempting to side with Nicolai Hojgaard, no doubt highly motivated after missing the chance to defend his title at the DP World Tour Championship. Runner-up to Homa, his long-game was much better when we saw him last and at 58th in the world, he has a lot to play for ahead of a huge 2025 which could see him make his second Ryder Cup appearance, this time as part of a Hojgaard twins pairing.
He's hard to leave out but I have to take a chance on WILL ZALATORIS instead.
Also playing for something important from 63rd in the world, Zalatoris will have been working really hard to get ready not just for this but for the opening events of 2025, as he has plenty of work to do after another frustrating campaign.
Like Homa, he did at least improve towards the end of the ZOZO Championship, carding weekend rounds of 65-68, and while I'd love to have seen more from his long-game, there had been some hugely promising signs in that department during finishes of 12th and 13th in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
That's seriously strong form down in this grade and hinted at the idea that Zalatoris might be edging back to his best, which we have seen as recently as the spring when second at Riviera, then fourth at Bay Hill in March, and ninth at Augusta in April.
What really draws me to him though is the fact that this course really should suit.
It does on paper, given everything I've said about quality approach play, but there's also a chance that Torrey Pines is actually a good form guide. Both Homa and fellow former champion Marc Leishman have won there, Hojgaard was second earlier this year, Matthieu Pavon won that event having set the pace here the previous November, and Alex Noren was desperately unlucky not to land the Farmers once.
A long, difficult course with small targets demanding quality approach shots, Torrey Pines does make some sense as a correlating course and while Zalatoris hasn't yet won there, he did lose a play-off for the Farmers before going on to capture his first PGA Tour title at Southwind.
There's another tough course where strong tee-to-green players are favoured and while we need to see Zalatoris bring his best long-game with him to South Africa on what's his course debut, I can't resist taking that chance.
The fact that his sole Korn Ferry Tour win came at altitude is the icing on the cake and he's narrowly preferred to Hojgaard, who did ride his putter last year and had previously struggled at Sun City.
Tom McKibbin should build on a good first look around while Jordan Smith continues to show putting improvement and will surely give his running, but Thomas Detry was the only other player towards the head of the betting who made any real appeal. He boasts an excellent Sun City record and also contended at Torrey Pines in January, but his long-game isn't convincing enough at the moment.
At bigger prices there aren't many who made the list, although it was somewhat tempting to risk new dad Sami Valimaki after he just about held onto his PGA Tour card while sat at home as the RSM Classic unfolded. Valimaki played well enough here last year, shortly after an emotional victory in Qatar, and 100/1 would look generous if we knew he was ready to go.
The other outsider of interest was Aldrich Potgieter but players of his profile just don't win this tournament. It's early days, because for so long it was restricted to a collection of elite golfers, but we're yet to see a surprise winner and certainly nobody so lacking in experience, so while he's been second at Sun City in a junior event, that isn't enough for me.
With back-to-form Brandon Stone generally bad here (14th came in a very weak renewal of the SA Open) I'm left wondering whether Bernd Wiesberger might end his return DP World Tour season on a high. In contrast to Stone he's very much course-proven but the Austrian has been poor lately, with a best of 50th from his last five starts.
Perhaps coming back to Sun City will spark him into life and I did consider the fact he was quite close to the lead at halfway in both Spain and Abu Dhabi, but he says himself that his game has deserted him and an unforgiving test like this one may come at a bad time.
Instead then, let's take arguably the best two players in the field and hope that the Nedbank now is as the Nedbank was then: a fine chance to watch an elite golfer end the year with a trophy.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 02/12/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.