Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Mexico Open at Vidanta preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley has three selections against defending champion and 11/4 favourite Jon Rahm in the Mexico Open.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open at Vidanta
2pts e.w. Gary Woodland at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Maverick McNealy at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Beau Hossler at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Jon Rahm arrived at the inaugural Mexico Championship amid arguably the biggest slump of his young career. Clinging onto the world number two slot, Rahm had gone a whopping six starts without contending, and when last seen had finished 27th in the Masters, his short-game in disarray.
His relative lack of confidence is why he stumbled rather than strode over the line, playing his final nine holes in level par. He would go on to suffer disappointing weeks in the remaining majors and fail to make an impact in the FedEx Cup. His victory at Vidanta Vallarta didn't solve everything, but it was the thing he could hold onto throughout a bad summer. Later, he'd face questions about a lacklustre year and point to wins in Mexico and then Spain as mitigating evidence.
Now, one year on, he's the Masters champion. Indisputably, he has been the best player in the sport over the past 12 months, winning seven times in total. Such is his status, it's not a surprise that opening prices of more than 3/1 have been taken. The surprise is that they existed in the first place.
Rahm went off around the 5/1 mark on his first visit to the course. Tony Finau returns having been adjusted from 22/1 to 8/1.
That's not to say I see great value in backing the favourite. Rahm was about the same price to win the Open de Espana, which ultimately required seeing off an improving Min Woo Lee, Matthieu Pavon, Edoardo Molinari and Zander Lombard. Here, there might only be one other truly elite player in the shape of Finau, but there are plenty of others with the ability to win on the PGA Tour, whether that's proven or otherwise.
If he has taken any time off following the RBC Heritage – Rahm joked that he would struggle because he's so addicted to playing golf – then he might not be the good-thing he looks. Remember, it did take him almost a year to win again after the US Open and while I doubt that'll be the case this time, this sport is harder than he's made it look. All major winners in 2022 took a while to win again.
And so to the course, designed by Greg Norman, which means you can play a fun game and try to spot his name on the PGA Tour website. It's a par 71 which is listed at 7,456 yards and ought to again be receptive. Trawl through last year's pressers and the word 'long' is in every last one of them, before we saw a leaderboard of power hitters emerge: Rahm, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, and so on.
Brandon Wu and David Lipsky both managed to get involved too but players like them face an uphill battle. DataGolf tells us that there were fewer shots from 75 to 175 yards than virtually anywhere else on the schedule; correspondingly, there were far more shots from upwards of that distance. Everyone was thrashing driver with impunity and then trying their best to set up genuine birdie chances from a long way away.
Players and bookmakers appear to have cottoned onto this fact, because the bigger names that are here all fall into the category of big-hitters.
Of course, it applies to Rahm and Finau, but also Wyndham Clark, GARY WOODLAND, Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Rodgers, Ben An, MAVERICK MCNEALY, BEAU HOSSLER and Taylor Pendrith, pretty much the top 10 names in the betting.
It seems likely that this group provides the winner and with cases there to be made for all of them, the value options in my eyes are the trio highlighted above.
Starting with McNealy, it's fair to say he'd have been much further up the betting at his best and, having said he's free of the fitness issues which kept him on the sidelines for a brief period earlier this year, I'm willing to chance him rediscovering his form.
He started the season as one of the best maidens on the circuit after a fine 2022 and when he began this year with seventh place in the Sony Open, he was as close to the world's top 50 as he's ever been. Unfortunately, after another solid effort at Torrey Pines, that's when injury struck.
Since returning he's made two cuts out of three, failing only narrowly at the RBC Heritage, but that's where some of the positives can be found as his iron play was excellent. Not typically his strength, that bodes well and while he was erratic off the tee, had his usually excellent short-game come to the party he'd have comfortably made the weekend.
Freshened up since and raring to go, he now heads to Mexico, where he's five-from-five for his career and has been especially good at El Camaleon (26-12-11-10), another Norman-designed course with receptive, paspalum greens. It's not as tilted towards big-hitters as this course, but it's probably a decent form guide and at least tells us McNealy is effective under these conditions.
His sole start in the Texas Open, played at another Norman design, saw him contend and he's a long driver who right now will appreciate the space this course affords him. The closest he came to winning on the Korn Ferry Tour was in an event dominated by long hitters, one subsequently won by An, and at 33/1 and upwards he's worth chancing on his debut here.
An is respected as he's playing nicely and hits it miles, too. That Suncoast Classic win could be a sneaky pointer and just as Wu followed a good Zurich Classic performance with second place in this event last year, so could An after he and S.H. Kim finished just outside the top 10.
His putting would worry me though and on that note it's WOODLAND's improved form on the greens which compels me to go in again having sided with him last year.
Note that Rahm (3/1 from 5/1) and Finau (8/1 from 22/1) are appreciably shorter in this weaker field, yet Woodland is a bigger price. There's some justification to that as his overall numbers for the season are slightly less compelling, but 14th in the Masters (MC 2022) and 31st in the Heritage (DNP) are hugely eye-catching efforts with this week in mind.
Woodland's Augusta record is abysmal, 14th place being his best performance yet, and the same is true of his past exploits at Harbour Town, where he's rarely visited on account of it being a bad fit for his game. To prove competitive in both despite giving away a lot of shots around the green suggests his long-game is where he needs it to be, and in both tournaments he putted really well.
He ranked second for greens hit on his debut in this event, finishing 24th, and was sixth in strokes-gained tee-to-green. It really was as simple as the putter costing him a place and if he has found a fix, even concerns over his chipping can be overcome at a course with large greens he ought not to be missing too often.
Woodland has contended at the two Norman designs referenced as well as at Torrey Pines, a course that Finau, Rahm and Champ all adore in part because of the advantage it lends to big hitters.
This looks a really good opportunity for a sleeping giant who has been ninth in elite company at Riviera, 14th at the Masters, and has nothing to fear from anyone bar the favourite.
My final vote among the second wave of the market goes to HOSSLER, who was the better player in a fine partnership with Clark at TPC Louisiana.
Clark's overall body of work is stronger and he deserves to be shorter in the market, but the gap between them might be a little wide given their respective performances, and the fact that Hossler has shown improved form off the tee of late.
Ranking third in that category in Texas really caught the eye as it was his career-best driving display and while his approach work has been poor for much of the season, that's improved throughout each of his last three starts, too.
Always capable of lighting up the greens, his game looks to be in good shape now and 31st place in the Heritage was encouraging in itself given a poor record there.
This wide-open venue ought to be far more suitable and as with all of my selections, he's contended at one of the two Norman designs used on the PGA Tour having looked set to win last year's Texas Open.
Also effective at Torrey Pines where he has a top-10 finish to his name, Hossler's improvement with driver marks him down as a potential breakout candidate over the coming months. Go back to 2018 and by far his best run of form on the circuit and it all stemmed from that club.
Outsiders to consider
Close followers of the PGA Tour shouldn't have much trouble figuring out the rest of the shortlist given what we've established so far. Anyone whose strength is hitting the ball a long way has to be considered; Brandon Matthews, Vincent Norrman, Brent Grant and so on. If you're a regular backer of any of these names then it makes sense to pull at that thread for one more week.
MJ Daffue, another with Suncoast Classic form, Charley Hoffman, a big-hitter with two Norman-design wins, and Harry Higgs, whose paspalum record includes a major top-five, were also considered. Higgs in particular seems to be a good deal closer than his numbers might suggest, regularly producing for two or three rounds including on his last trip to Mexico, although he's only just above-average when it comes to distance off the tee.
Of this bunch, Higgs and Norrman came closest to making the staking plan but I felt the market was onto the latter as it is Will Gordon, whose profile is likeable but whose overall form is questionable. Gordon is a big-hitter whose long-iron play is excellent, and he putted superbly when third at El Camaleon when last in Mexico. The trouble is, one round at the Zurich Classic is all we really have from him since January.
Rounding out the list of candidates I explored is Lanto Griffin, who was badly out of sorts before finishing 15th at Vidanta Vallarta, ranking sixth in strokes-gained off the tee and 24th with his approaches. That plus an excellent record at Torrey Pines and a win in Houston all points towards the potential suitability of the venue, whereas Harbour Town, where he missed the cut last time, is one he's yet to play well at.
Prior to the Heritage, Griffin had struck the ball as well as he has since returning from six months out, a performance in Texas which came after he'd got close to the lead when dropping down to Korn Ferry Tour level. It seems the wheels of his comeback are beginning to turn.
At 100/1, that makes him one to consider, but my overriding belief is that he's probably still some way short of what's required. It's not beyond him to sneak the place money, but winning might be and for that reason I'm compelled to leave him out and stick to three players who might just be able to shake up Rahm and Finau on a likely power-packed leaderboard.
Posted at 1135 BST on 25/04/23
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