Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Magical Kenya Open preview and best bets
Muthaiga steps in to host the Magical Kenya Open as the DP World Tour returns, and golf expert Ben Coley says it'll be ideal for Richie Ramsay.
Golf betting tips: Magical Kenya Open
1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Wil Besseling at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo Vera at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Ross McGowan at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt Paul Dunne to lead after R1 at 200/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Karen Country Club in Nairobi is one of the handful of courses to have hosted back-to-back events on the DP World Tour over the last couple of years, something we saw again with two in Ras al Khaimah before a fortnight off.
Al Hamra, where first Nicolai Hojgaard and then Ryan Fox blasted their way to comfortable victories, does not look much like Karen, but it does offer similar opportunities for those whose strength is driving the ball. We saw as much when Daniel van Tonder won the Savannah Classic in Kenya last spring, as a host of short par-fours encouraged players to go for the green or else set up a pitch-and-putt birdie, and we saw it in stark terms in Ras where Fox and Hojgaard emulated Adri Arnaus and Jordan Smith in winning.
It's therefore significant, perhaps highly so, that Karen is replaced by Muthaiga for this year's renewal of the Kenya Open – these courses in the Kenyan capital share many things in common, but the way scores are built could contrast quite sharply. I have been to Muthaiga, and it is tighter, more undulating, and less obviously vulnerable to driver than Karen has been, something again demonstrated in 2019 when Guido Migliozzi and Adri Arnaus duelled for this title.
A par 71 with five par-threes, only the 17th ought to be offering genuine eagle chances for the big-hitters at Muthaiga, and three of the four par-fives are comfortably within reach for everyone. It is on the face of it a more intricate, balanced test which has seen fairways-and-greens golfers thrive, the likes of Aaron Rai, Lorenzo Gagli, Seve Benson, Gary Boyd and Robert Dinwiddie having won here on the Challenge Tour in the past.
Immediately, Crans-sur-Sierre, home of the European Masters, stands out as a reference point. Boyd has been halfway leader there, Dinwiddie managed two top-10s in a career which produced few of those, and Benson's record in the Swiss Alps was excellent for a player of his stature. Gagli meanwhile was part of a five-man play-off in 2019, and while winner Sebastian Soderberg also has a Karen victory on his CV, he was 54-hole leader when Gagli took this title four years ago. Kalle Samooja, also in that bumper play-off at Crans, was third.
That's a very strong set of connections given the calibre of player we're talking about and while Crans is probably a decent guide to Karen, it should be a particularly good one here. Small greens, tree-lined fairways, wedge upon wedge and an emphasis on sharp scrambling skills, not to mention the fact both courses are at considerable altitude, makes this a course correlation which is very easy to understand.
It also suggests we might be able to get the favourites beaten, with five of the top six in the market potentially far better suited to Karen. The exception, Justin Harding, defends his title but could in fact benefit from the course switch, given his is one of the sharpest short-games on the circuit, and yet he's spurned some very good chances since and is not one I can bring myself to trust at 16/1.
Muthaiga made for Ramsay
Top billing then goes to RICHIE RAMSAY, who has made a good start to the season despite facing conditions which immediately put him at a disadvantage.
Not that this gritty Scot will feel sorry for himself with the direction this sport travels, instead he's the sort to tough things out and then, at some stage, capitalise on the kind of opportunity which doesn't crop up too often.
He was unable to do that last October, but form figures of 25-32-MC-33 to start 2022 can be upgraded given the nature of the courses he's played, and I like the fact his irons were dialled in by the end of an encouraging fortnight at Al Hamra.
Kenya has always looked an ideal destination for a player whose first professional win came in South Africa, and Ramsay offered plenty when making his belated first visit last year. Put up on these pages for this event, he opened 67-65 to lie third at halfway, only for a nightmare 77 to end his chance before he put that behind him with a closing 68.
It was a sound effort at a course less obviously suitable, and his first try at Muthaiga could be far more rewarding. Ramsay is not only a winner at Crans, but he's gone close at Valderrama, was fourth in just two starts in the Hong Kong Open which also looks a good guide, and returned from an injury-hit spell to triumph in the final edition of the Trophee Hassan to be played at Golf du Palais Royal.
All of this underlines the kind of player he is, that is to say neat, tidy, and more comfortable when grinding out a score. Those are the attributes I'm looking for and after upping his accuracy last time we saw him (top 10 for fairways and greens), the former US Amateur champion has plenty in his favour.
Maiden victory for Mike?
Conor Syme has a similar game and looks particularly good around the greens, so compensation could await after his clumsy third place in this event last year. However, at twice the price I'm drawn to the experience of MIKE LORENZO VERA and am hopeful he can threaten a breakthrough win at this level.
The Frenchman is another who hasn't exactly lit things up so far this year, but he's only played twice, both times at Al Hamra, and for my money offered plenty of encouragement in making the cut and finishing mid-pack in the second event.
Not to labour the point, but those like Lorenzo Vera who don't hit the ball a mile generally struggled across the fortnight and he's going to be far better suited to this test, a 2012 missed cut easily overlooked given he failed to make the weekend in half of his starts during a particularly difficult campaign.
Ten years on, Lorenzo Vera still seeks his first DP World Tour Championship win but if it comes, it'll likely be under conditions similar to these. He has six top-30 finishes in seven visits to Crans, including third and sixth, and has been second, sixth and 25th in just three starts at Valderrama. It's no surprise his best effort towards the end of 2021 came at the Open de Espana, on an old, classical course where his balanced attack could compete.
With his putter still firing and small improvements in his approach play, there's enough in Lorenzo Vera's recent form to suggest he could find a jolt of improvement for the right course. Despite struggling here in 2012, Muthaiga really ought to fall into that category and three-figure prices make plenty of appeal.
Big-hitting Besseling ticks all the boxes
Despite all of the above, it's not that I'm blind to the prospect that someone does blast their way to this, the ball flying miles in Nairobi and potentially bringing a couple more par-fours into range.
Adrian Meronk, Laurie Canter and Jacques Kruyswijk have all gone well here and so has WIL BESSELING, who is preferred to compatriot Joost Luiten on this occasion.
Luiten featured in an eyecatchers piece I wrote last week and was quite tempting after a decent Kenya debut last year, but his short-game is a real worry and the fiddly nature of this test suggests the champion will have had to rely on what he does around the greens.
In Besseling then we have someone who is generally a little sharper in that department but what I like most is that he's a best-of-both-worlds blend of power, and a clear preference for this kind of course.
Sixth in the aforementioned Open de Espana, his previous best last autumn was 13th on debut at Crans, and in 2020 he was third on his debut at Valderrama for good measure. Also placed in the last two editions of the Austrian Open, played on a difficult, parkland course where position beats power, Besseling reminds me a little of Scott Hend in that for all his length, some definition off the tee is usually required.
Like several of these he has some course form having been seventh on the Challenge Tour five years ago, shooting three excellent rounds but undermining so much of his good work on Friday, and if he can tidy up his approach work then another top-10 finish is well within his grasp.
Of those back towards the front of the market it's easy to make a case for Oliver Bekker, a vastly improved South African who has course form aplenty. We saw two South Africans win across the Kenyan fortnight in 2021, and they so often take up a good few of the places at the very least when we're playing on their home continent.
However, while this isn't a particularly strong field he's the same sort of odds as several players with winning DP World Tour form such as Adrian Otaegui and JB Hansen and looks short enough, so I'll make a similar case for ROSS MCGOWAN at a considerably bigger price.
Like Bekker, McGowan cut through the pack here in 2018, sitting 134th after an opening 76 but then carding rounds of 67, 69 and 65 to finish 14th. That climb of 120 places came courtesy of golf only Matthias Schwab was able to better over those final three rounds, with Bekker carding the same score as he too overcame a nightmare first round.
McGowan's effort was all the more impressive given that he'd missed five cuts from five starts that year and would go on to miss his next two, and it further underlines ties between Muthaiga and Crans given that he's played the latter course five times, and hit the frame on three of them.
That record in the Alps includes fourth place at a massive price just last year and the Englishman, who sprang an almighty surprise when winning the Italian Open in 2020, produced his best golf since when taking fourth place in a Sunshine-Challenge Tour collaboration last week.
Strokes-gained stats from the event have to be taken with a pinch of salt and I won't get carried away with the fact he allegedly led the field in approach play, but we can be confident in the fact nobody hit more greens and that's a nice way for this traditionally excellent putter to have prepared for this.
Marcus Kinhult is another with Crans and Hong Kong form, a touch of class, and a very good effort on his only try at Muthaiga. The Swede, diagnosed with epilepsy last spring and struggling for form since, must be buoyed by having won a Nordic Golf League event in Spain last week and at his absolute best would be among the favourites.
That said, these NGL events (he was ninth a week earlier) were not strong and with only one firm dangling three-figure prices, I'll finish off my outright selections with SEAN CROCKER at around the same price as Ramsay.
Crocker isn't exactly the type of player I was looking for here – he's more of the Meronk, Arnaus, van Tonder mould – but a poor start to the year has seen his odds drift to a price I can't resist, as he has stacks of ability and contended for many a good DP World Tour event last year.
One of those was the European Masters at Crans, where he finished fourth, and having also played well at Valderrama and Fanling he does have those form lines I like for all that his game is more about long, excellent driving than it is wedge play and scrambling.
And while it has been a miserable start to the year (MC-MC), Crocker was ticking along nicely in Abu Dhabi until playing the wrong ball, so after a few weeks back home in Florida I'm inclined to give the Zimbabwe-born American another chance to show just how good he can be having finished well for 12th on his sole start in this back in 2019.
For those seeking something more speculative, Nino Bertasio has all the right form and played well in Kenya last year, while the flashes of improvement from PAUL DUNNE and Haydn Porteous put both on the radar.
Dunne in particular is of interest in the first-round leader market (200/1 with Unibet and bet365) having been scoring well in short bursts, and signing for Bounce Sport last week must have been a boost as he sees that others have faith in his ability.
The Irishman, winner of the British Masters five years ago, has seven first-round leads in fewer than 150 events and ended last season with opening 67s in Scotland and Spain. More recently, he narrowly failed to come through a 36-hole qualifier for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and over the last fortnight in South Africa has opened with a 66 (third) and then carded another last Friday to miss the cut on the number.
A big number is clearly possible, but this is the sort of test he ought to enjoy and while many have been out of competition for a couple of weeks, he's been playing in those events on the Sunshine Tour. Perhaps we can get that low round on the right day and at 150/1 and upwards, a small bet will do to round off a speculative staking plan.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 28/02/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.