Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Made in HimmerLand preview and best bets
After near-misses on both tours last week, golf expert Ben Coley returns to preview the Made in HimmerLand where home favourite Thorbjorn Olesen can star.
Golf betting tips: Made in HimmerLand
3pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Adrian Otaegui at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Julien Guerrier at 66/1 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - settled at 66/1)
1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 80/1 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Mikael Lindberg at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
With the British Masters having concluded on Sunday, Open qualifying taking place on Tuesday, the Scottish Open under way next Thursday and the Open Championship itself after that, it's fair to ask whether this is really the best slot in the calendar for the Made in HimmerLand.
Held last year in September having been moved from May, it seems a shame that we couldn't have come back later in the year and for now remained in the UK, or else paused for breath altogether. Instead, this fabulous tournament risks getting lost a little, its field thinning out quite quickly after the handful of top-tier DP World Tour players who shape the betting.
It is at least of some comfort that three of them are Danish as the search for a home winner continues but at the time of writing it's a Swede, Alex Bjork, who looks set to make his way to the top of the betting. Bjork is playing the best golf of his life and loves HimmerLand so this is easy to understand, but I can't entertain backing a poor driver with one win in five years to his name when he's priced up as the man to beat.
The fact that this dynamite putter happened to putt badly when he produced the best tee-to-green display in the entire field at the Belfry last week should serve as a warning to potential backers rather than encouragement, as should the fact that his best putting display in the past year came during his worst ball-striking week. Coincidence, maybe, but emblematic of someone who finds it hard to put everything together at once.
Olesen to lead home challenge
With Nicolai Hojgaard not especially well suited to this short, exposed course, and brother Rasmus having withdrawn with an injury problem last time, there's a sound case that THORBJORN OLESEN should in fact be heading the betting and I'm more than happy to side with this Ryder Cup hopeful at 20/1 and bigger.
Olesen is not only the most decorated and prolific player at the front of this market, he's also the best in the field on 2023 form – the only other DP World Tour golfer gaining more than two strokes on the field on average is Adrian Meronk, with Bjork third, and then a big gap back to the rest headed by another pair of absentees.
That's a good reminder of how shallow this particular field is and Olesen, who is relatively lightly-raced for the season, stands out following two wins in 13 months and what was a strong title defence at the British Masters last week.
If there is a concern it's that his long-game stats aren't quite what they were around the time of his Thailand Classic victory, but he gained strokes through the bag at the Brabazon and paid the price for two or three shots which were punished in that slightly artificial way that courses like that one can always do.
It's only three starts since he was third in the Soudal Open despite his worst driving display of the year so this is a player brimming with confidence, who having won on adopted home soil in England should feel like he's the man to finally get Denmark over the line here in front of another good crowd on HimmerLand Hill.
Olesen's form at the course includes a contending seventh on debut, 14th in 2017 when he'd vaulted into the mix with a Saturday 65, and post-pandemic finishes of 31st and 22nd. Both of these offered real encouragement, especially last year when he returned to action following a final-round 82 in his previous start but brushed that off with a brace of 66s.
Clearly capable of scoring at the course and probably best suited by the calmer forecast which appears set for round two onwards, it would only take a repeat of last week's effort to make him the one they all have to aim at. I fancy Olesen to produce exactly that and he has to rate the headline bet at the prices.
Though the Scottish trio at the front end of the betting are all capable of upstaging the host nation, preference for the next best is ADRIAN OTAEGUI, who again looks to have been underestimated a little.
Otaegui rediscovered his form when contending in Italy in May despite that course favouring bigger hitters, and he's built on that by finishing 15th in Belgium and runner-up to compatriot Pablo Larrazabal in the Netherlands, where he was the best player in the field from tee to green.
I'd read nothing into a stateside missed cut between these two as he was by no means disgraced at Oak Hill and while initially somewhat concerned over a five-week absence, Otaegui was in action in his homeland last week when finishing second in a decent little Spanish PGA event.
That hopefully has him match sharp for a return to HimmerLand, where his last visit ended with a final-round 64 and where he'd been third in 2016. All told he's made all five cuts, looking at ease ever since he led the field in ball-striking on debut, and a short, exposed, low-scoring test is fine for a past champion at Fairmont St Andrews.
Otaegui also boasts a strong record at The Renaissance which is of definite interest. That course has thrown up two-time HimmerLand champion Bernd Wiesberger while the French pair who chased him home in Scotland, Benjamin Hebert and Romain Langasque, have both gone really well here, too.
Aaron Rai won the 2020 Scottish Open when Robert Rock and Marc Warren were both in the mix and these also tie in well with this course, particularly Warren who won the inaugural Made in Denmark prior to the recent name switch.
Jordan at ease in the breeze
Such an approach led me to MATTHEW JORDAN last year and I'm a bit surprised to be able to go in again at just a slightly shorter price, given that he went on to shoot a third-round 62 and tie for fourth place.
Jordan had been in poor form back then whereas this time around he's found his game, finishing 16th, 22nd, ninth and 34th across his last four starts, latterly at the Belfry where he'd missed the cut in each of the last two years following a solid but unspectacular top 20 on debut.
As a quality driver whose distance off the tee belies his frame, Jordan probably isn't all that well suited to the Brabazon, where so often that club is taken out of his hands. That's somewhat true here in Denmark, but the pay-off is that we have links-like conditions that will suit a former winner of two prestigious amateur titles by the coast in England.
That's where Jordan grew up and he'll be desperate to come through Open qualifying on Tuesday, given that it's being played just down the road from his childhood home at a course where he's long been a member. Should that go to plan then there's a strong chance he withdraws in which case stakes will be refunded.
If he does turn up here, then the fact he boasts one of the best short-games on the circuit is a big plus around this course as is a strong record at The Renaissance, where he was on the fringes of contention for a while last year having been 18th in top-class company back in 2021.
Jordan also thrives in the Dunhill Links, won previously by last year's Denmark champion Oliver Wilson and where fellow contender Matthew Southgate was once second. Again, those who are comfortable under such conditions have to be at a major advantage, and Olesen by the way is also a former winner there.
Although Jordan's approach play is often the thing that holds him back even that fired two starts ago in Sweden, so with a strong run of results behind him this looks a really good chance for a talented maiden to get off the mark.
Next on the list is EDDIE PEPPERELL, who has one big weakness which can be overcome at certain courses but less so at others, just like Bjork in fact.
Pepperell ranked 76th of 79 players in strokes-gained off-the-tee at the British Masters, where an average driving performance might've seen him crack the top 15 instead of having to settle for a mid-pack share of 34th.
However, the fact he managed to get round a difficult course without more than a bogey despite those issues says a lot about the rest of his game, as for the second time in three starts he produced a top-notch display with his irons.
Now he comes to a shorter, less punishing course, one at which he was fourth when in poor form back in 2014, long before strokes-gained statistics were able to fill in the blanks in terms of our understanding of DP World Tour events.
As those stats have emerged, we've seen Pepperell gain strokes off the tee in both 2021 and 2022, ranking a lofty 21st last year, and if he is able to continue this sequence then he has to be a runner. Put Pepperell in the fairway and he's a serious operator at this level, one with two wins and stacks of other impressive results to show for it.
Both of those victories came on exposed courses, once when fending off Bjork at Walton Heath, and he's also been runner-up at Fairmont St Andrews, ninth at The Renaissance, runner-up and fourth at Gullane, seventh at St Andrews, and sixth at Carnoustie.
Over at Royal County Down he was second in the Irish Open, the same position he filled when defending his British Masters title at Hillside, and all of these form lines are good guides to HimmerLand, where even in relatively benign conditions it'll be important to be able to hit quality approach shots which factor in the breeze.
Pepperell has admittedly arrived at this tournament in really good form previously and it's a concern to see him tweet that his game felt some way off last week. I'm not so sure and odds of 80/1 at a course which suits him better and in weaker company make him a compelling option.
Exposed conditions suit Frenchman
David Law is by contrast driving the ball superbly, just as he did in the 2022 edition of this event, and adds real depth to the Scottish challenge. Law has struggled on these greens in the past but his putter has generally behaved lately and that could add up to a big week for a player with a strong links pedigree from his amateur days.
He's narrowly passed over in favour of JULIEN GUERRIER, who won the Amateur Championship at Royal St George's back in 2006.
Guerrier has since produced stacks of good golf under exposed conditions including at HimmerLand, where he was 14th in 2015. That was his best performance anywhere during a difficult year spent on the Challenge Tour, so it's well worth upgrading.
Something similar happened upon his return six years later as Guerrier's 15th place was his best finish of the year and would remain that way all the way through to October, which means that the only blip on his record came last September. Context is again required: it was missed cut number two in a run of six to end the season.
Having ranked third in the tee-to-green stats in that 2021 performance it's clear that Guerrier likes this course, and I've been generally impressed with the state of his game. Even last week, when missing the cut, he did well to shoot a second-round 70, 17th among a field of 154, and only just failed to advance to Saturday's third round.
Prior to that we'd seen some interesting improvements in his approach play which has typically been his only weakness. For a long time one of the most reliable drivers around and always capable of a hot putting week, if those irons sing again at a course he prefers to the Brabazon, yet another crack at the title might well be the outcome.
That's so far proven beyond Guerrier at this level but he fought hard in Italy and again in Germany, where he birdied the last on a really difficult day of scoring, and he's certainly capable. With no Meronk in the field and likely no young talent quite so exciting as Tom McKibbin, this may take a deal less winning.
Matthieu Pavon, Guerrier's compatriot and fellow maiden, is also up to getting off the mark at some stage and 50/1 is fair given his form this year, while I of course looked closely at John Axelsen despite a chastening experience at the Belfry. Axelsen played well here in 2021 and has a course win to his name at a much lower level.
Short-game wizard Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez could build on his first step in the right direction following a six-month absence at a course which suits while Andrew Wilson isn't without hope of succeeding namesake Oli, but my pick of the outsiders is MIKAEL LINDBERG.
Having graduated in fifth place on the Challenge Tour last season, Lindberg had been a bit of a disappointment until finding something like his best golf again with 12th place under exposed, familiar conditions at Bernardus in the Netherlands.
Although he went on to miss his next two cuts, Lindberg proved that his KLM Open display was no flash in the pan with a staying-on top 20 in Munich, which he this time backed up with 23rd place at the Belfry in a considerably better field than this one.
Four times in five starts now he's driven the ball to an extremely high standard, the only exception when that club was often taken out of his hands in his native Sweden, while we saw some improvements in his approach play to rank 27th last week – this vital department is the one in which he'd looked lost until recently.
Most likely is that he regresses rather than takes another step forward but the latter is not impossible during what had already been a good year for his fellow graduates before Daniel Hillier's exceptional display at the Belfy.
With McKibbin and Matthew Baldwin already winners the 2023 intake are well ahead of the curve and Lindberg, twice a winner elsewhere in Denmark and with plenty of experience of this course, could spring a surprise at enormous odds under familiar conditions.
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Posted at 1900 BST on 03/07/23
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