Ben Coley's golf betting tips: KLM Open preview and best bets
Matt Wallace can make a winning return to the DP World Tour in this week's KLM Open, for which Ben Coley has five selections in total.
Golf betting tips: KLM Open
5pts win Matt Wallace at 16/1 (General)
3pts win Rasmus Hojgaard at 18/1 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Johannes Veerman at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Joost Luiten at 45/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 110/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
If you want to know how maddening it can be trying to make sense of golf tournaments, difficult enough at the best of times, then ponder an article titled 'Five things to know', published by the European Tour in advance of the 2019 KLM Open. Among the colour, the reflections of past champions, was this description: 'the 6,966-yard par 73'. Once the tournament began just days after it had been published, The International played neither to 6,966 yards, nor to a par of 73.
Five years later we return to Amsterdam on the promise of a course which has been slightly re-routed to turn what was a par of 72 into a 71, with a fifth par-three added to the scorecard. The main change though is in the cast list and it's striking that when last we were here, the names of Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed and Martin Kaymer were impossible to miss. Garcia went on to win his 16th and perhaps final European Tour title, beating Nicolai Hojgaard by one soon after the Dane had turned professional.
This time, home favourite Joost Luiten is joined by what's now become a very familiar collection of players who've been shuffling around to form some sort of market order all year long. There are a couple of welcome exceptions, notably Matt Wallace and, surprisingly, Luke List, but bona fide stars are in short supply. The positive repercussion is that, for the first time all year, everybody who supposedly earned their card at Q School gets a game which you might say arrives better late than never.
The International prides itself on being a forward-thinking golf club and the course is suitably modern, for all that it boasts of some links-like characteristics and, as well as being exposed everywhere, is certainly rugged in places. Perhaps that explains why there's stacks of Scotland form on that 2019 leaderboard through Garcia, Hojgaard, Wallace, Callum Shinkwin, Joakim Lagergren, and plenty more besides. It's everywhere you look in fact, with even someone like Hugo Leon boasting a top-10 finish at Fairmont St Andrews despite having done little at this level.
One other note to consider is that the par-fives were hard: nobody played them in 10-under, just a couple managing a scoring average of 4.50 or better for the week. With a driveable par-four removed to make way for that additional par-three, scoring opportunities are limited and there are strong parallels with former host venue Bernardus, another modern, links-style course which threw up ties to Scotland, particularly in 2022 when Victor Perez stole one from Ryan Fox. They're both now Dunhill Links champions for whom the word 'exposed' is a big plus.
With a gusty forecast set for the early part of the tournament, this will be a good test and it's one for which MATT WALLACE is extremely well qualified.
By now I hope you're familiar with the most important part of this case: PGA Tour form is still underestimated and when people are playing to anything like a decent standard out there, they ought to be on the radar when they return to Europe.
Wallace is playing better than that. Fourth in the Byron Nelson, 20th after a slow start in Myrtle Beach, a second-round 65 in the PGA Championship for a mid-pack finish, then 27th in Canada where he shot a Saturday 65 this time, is all excellent in this context.
Moreover, there's no smoke and mirrors. He could in fact have won the Nelson having led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green but putted poorly, which isn't like him. In Canada last time, his iron play was elite, ranking second in the field, and a decent putting week would certainly have seen him crack the top dozen or so only for that club to again let him down.
Wallace though is a good putter and we saw as much last time he played out here, when he finished runner-up in the DP World Tour Championship. That came after 15th in the Nedbank, ninth before that in Qatar, sixth in the Dunhill Links and, a few starts earlier, an unlucky second in the Czech Masters – that and Qatar are were both in fields comparable to this one.
He has plenty of form in Scotland, including second place at Fairmont St Andrews, sixth in the Dunhill Links and 14th at The Renaissance, and dating back to the first of those he's been runner-up four times in 34 starts. He is quite simply a very good player for this level and unlike Tom McKibbin, Richard Mansell, Sam Bairstow and a few more, he doesn't have to fly in from North Carolina following the US Open.
Wallace was third here in 2019, another edge he has over several of the market leaders, and his overall record in the Dutch Open reads 9-3-5, eight of his 12 rounds ending with him inside the top 10. And for what it's worth, that third place behind Garcia saw him play by far the best golf in the field over the final three rounds, after an opening 75 left him in 111th place.
He is the most likely winner and should be backed accordingly.
McKibbin's ascent continues and 41st in the US Open, where he again demonstrated his prowess off the tee and continued what's been an improved run of putting, was a good effort. He's been on a pretty light schedule having played just three events since the beginning of April, so perhaps the flight and the turnaround won't catch him out.
It might, though, especially after a big Sunday spent alongside the world number one first of all, and then watching his idol throw away the tournament. As such while it was this event last year which helped set up his breakthrough victory in Germany a week later, he looks worth opposing at the same price as Wallace even if his ceiling is higher.
I much prefer the similarly promising RASMUS HOJGAARD and would have him and Bernd Wiesberger down as the biggest threats.
Wiesberger has won at HimmerLand and The Renaissance, two potentially good guides to this, and his form throughout 2024 has been excellent. As expected, it hasn't taken him long to confirm that he remains one of the top operators at this level and from tee-to-green, there is nobody better.
He almost did the job for us in Germany last time and could easily go one better, but with odds shortening all the time I'm afraid the ship might have sailed. By contrast, Hojgaard has started to ease out slightly and he's been a massive eye-catcher the last twice, including when selected for the Scandinavian Mixed two weeks ago.
I'm adamant he was huge value for that but it makes little difference if you're slow from the gates and having been 148th and 84th after round one in his last two starts, he needs to do better on Thursday. Still, he almost made the weekend the first time and then in Sweden finished 20th, a big effort in the circumstances despite carrying a cold putter.
His approach play, the staple of his last three wins (ranked first in Denmark, fifth in Switzerland, fourth at the Belfry) is firing and while he's yet to play here, finishes of 10th and third at Bernardus offer us a pretty a big clue. The latter came after a flight from the USA; the former was during a generally quiet spell but when his irons had been good last time out.
With a solid Dunhill Links record plus a win at HimmerLand and near-miss on an exposed layout in Paris, not to mention his first victory in Mauritius, this sort of golf course seems sure to suit and a bit more space off the tee than in Sweden is a big plus.
Should he drive it better, he ought to contend whether that putter warms up properly or not.
Bairstow's incredible fightback on day two of the US Open is another indication that he's a winner in waiting and perhaps he'll benefit from having missed the cut and had more time to get over that experience. He's respected as a winner in Scotland on the Challenge Tour, where he edged out a former winner of this event in fact.
Instead though I'll take the fresher, bang in-form JOHANNES VEERMAN, for whom this carries extra significance given that his father is from the Netherlands.
With three top-10s in his last five starts, Veerman couldn't have timed it much better in terms of coming back for another crack at this while in good nick and he'll know the course suits, as he was sixth in strokes-gained tee-to-green when only midfield in 2019.
Out of sorts prior to that, he went on to contend at Bernadus (sixth) at the end of a golden summer in 2021 and for the first time since, his game is in comparable shape. Twice lately he's been the best iron player in the field and he really ought to have comfortably landed the full place return when eighth for us in Germany.
That's one of three top-10 tee-to-green displays lately, all translating to those top-10 finishes, and during this run he's not ranked inside the top 20 for putting. Like Wallace, that club has often been a strength and while it was especially poor in Sweden, that does help to mask what was another excellent ball-striking week for a player who is very close.
We'll have to chance the putter coming good again and if it does, Veerman can threaten a second DP World Tour win at a course just as suitable as Albatross proved to be. Hopefully it lives up to my suspicion that it could be a sneaky form guide, given Wallace's performance there last August.
Returning to that 2019 leaderboard and it's clear that driver was the key club, not only because Garcia beat Hojgaard, but because even some of the weaker drivers in behind were better than they usually are off the tee. Plus, Callum Shinkwin and Wil Besseling are two of the very best on the circuit and both were bang there behind the front two.
The removal of that short par-four notwithstanding, driver and three-wood should remain important because, despite this being a par 71, we do still have four par-fives to go at. This is just – and I do mean just – enough to dissuade me from chancing Haotong Li, a quality iron player with a strong pedigree on exposed courses, and who is four-times the price he was just a few starts ago in China.
Six modest rounds since then is far less of a concern than the fact that he's just dipped a little off the tee, the department which saw him spiral into something close to golfing oblivion, but if he can tidy up and hole a few more putts then the talented Chinese could go well.
At a similar price I've a little more faith in BRANDON STONE, another who I don't mind forgiving a narrow missed cut last time.
Stone failed to make the weekend of the European Open by a single stroke and it was all because of the putter, which had suddenly sprung to life over his previous three starts and therefore triggered a return to form.
Prior to Germany he'd carded rounds of 65 and 66 in Belgium, at a course which isn't ideal, and before that he was somehow seventh in the China Open having opened with a round of 74 and then shot 64-64 to squeeze into the top 10.
Stone's short-game had been a massive problem for some time but it really does look to have turned a corner both on and around the greens, and that's going to make him dangerous as he remains a fine ball-striker. Of late, it's been especially encouraging to see his irons step forward, and he's among the best around with driver in hand when firing.
A former winner of the Scottish Open, this style of golf ought to suit and that was certainly the case here in 2019, when he finished 21st. That renewal took place in September and it was Stone's best finish of the season to that point, having missed 11 of 16 cuts and never been a factor elsewhere.
Second last May when returning to the Netherlands for a Challenge Tour event, he is a strong each-way option at a course where his power looks set to be an advantage. And as for those five par-threes, while I wouldn't read much into the season-long stats, the fact that he's one of just a dozen players who have been under-par for them to this point is no bad thing.
Joost the ticket
Rafa Cabrera Bello was my candidate for a player to follow in 2024 and I don't mind saying his 40th birthday was part of that. Since it came along at the end of May he's finished seventh in Hamburg and 25th last time in Sweden, despite a poor final round there.
Most of his improvement is down to a hot putter and I'd be wary of such a poor driver around here, but the Spaniard has an undoubted touch of class and, like Stone, is another former Scottish Open winner. He could go well at a nice price while I am intrigued to see what Dunhill Links champion Danny Willett can do, as he only narrowly failed to make the weekend in Germany and seems bullish about his latest return.
JOOST LUITEN is of course the primary home hope and as well as being an obvious candidate on the strength of his form in the event, there's a notable subplot to consider, too.
Luiten qualified for the Olympic Games when that process ended on Sunday, but the fascinatingly named Dutch Olympic Committee*Dutch Sports Federation (NOC*NSF) had other ideas for Tokyo, and it seems that way again for Paris (although I can't work out how to translate a PDF explainer).
In 2021, Luiten was denied a place in the field for the delayed Olympic Games by his own federation, who deemed it necessary to set the absurd requirement of being ranked inside the world's top 100. At the time, it meant that both he and Besseling missed out and the mild-mannered Dutchman had plenty to say about it.
"I would have loved to go to Tokyo, despite the restrictions that will apply due to corona," Luiten told golfNL. "(The Dutch Olympic committee) proves with what I consider unnecessary extra demands that they understand little about golf. It is common for golfers to win tournaments outside the top 100 in the world."
Three years on and there is now a fortnight to go before federations submit their final teams. That means Luiten could still force their hand by climbing inside the top 100 from his current position of 147th. Winning his national open would apply pressure and he definitely can make that top 100 with two excellent performances, but he will almost certainly need to win either at home or in Italy.
Playing in his first KLM Open since he became a father, perhaps he can do it. This is a tournament he's won twice before, remember, and he was 10th at this course when largely quiet in 2019.
Luiten got off to a nightmare start that week having been three-over through nine holes so it was a mighty effort, and thanks to some putting improvement since March he looks to have his game in good enough shape to contend again. We're paying a bit of a premium for the fact that he's Dutch but his record on home soil speaks for itself and at 33/1 and bigger, I'm prepared to back him.
I did consider Matti Schmid and the best early prices (66/1) would have you on the right side of the deal, but a run of poor form is off-putting. Based on his golf in the spring he'd be a big threat though and I do like the fact that some of his golfing highlights, both as an amateur and as a professional, have come here in the Netherlands.
Along with Freddy Schott he's of some interest, the latter somewhat feast or famine but a player who it could pay to follow blind, and in general I like strong drivers. In Luiten's case that relies on fairways, in Wallace's it's something that has improved lately, while for Hojgaard it will have to.
All three though look good options at a course where quality ball-strikers ought to dominate come Sunday afternoon.
Posted at 1000 BST on 18/06/24
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