Stephan Jaeger heads Ben Coley's selections for the John Deere Classic, along with a Ryder Cup hopeful and a course specialist at massive odds.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic
3pts win Cameron Young at 18/1 (General - 20/1 with Unibet)
2pts e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Seamus Power at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Dylan Wu at 70/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. David Lipsky at 125/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Kelly Kraft at 400/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
By the time the dust settles on this explosive PGA Tour season which still has a long way to run, I wonder whether the low-key events like this week's John Deere Classic might have changed a few minds.
Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Jason Day at the Nelson, Chris Kirk at the Honda – these have been some of the most interesting storylines, three players whose respective struggles made victory all the sweeter. In a world where every event is designated, all three might never have got back to where they had once been.
This week is more Honda than RMC in terms of field strength, but to those involved it is no less significant. Denny McCarthy for instance looks to shed his maiden tag, Adam Hadwin has a chance for immediate compensation, Ludvig Aberg for the win he'll need to enter the Ryder Cup chat, Cam Young for his own breakthrough which would ensure he's back in the picture for the USA.
TPC Deere Run is the stage for what's always been a shootout, and while the rough might be more significant than it has been, wet weather in the run-up should balance that out. Those hitting fairways, which is of heightened significance here versus hitting the ball a long way, will have plenty of opportunities to attack flags at a mid-length par 71 built for birdies.
It's a fantastic fit for McCarthy and Hadwin, less so Young and Aberg (more on one of them later), but the best value at the front of the market is STEPHAN JAEGER, who would rate an even more confident selection but for what happened at the Travelers a fortnight ago.
Selected there at 200/1, Jaeger's previously improved putting abandoned him as he ranked last of the 67 players who made the cut, the worst display of his career. It meant that despite continuing to hit the ball well as he has for most of 2023, he slipped further down the leaderboard as the week progressed.
Backers have to hope that was a one-off and having putted well again for ninth place last week, his third top-30 putting display in four starts and fourth in six, there is cause for optimism there. If this multiple Korn Ferry Tour winner can improve again, even marginally, I expect him to be firmly in the shake-up.
Jaeger was 30th here last year but that doesn't tell the full story. It was in fact another shocking putting week, his worst for many years until the Travelers, which held him back, as the German ranked third in strokes-gained tee-to-green. At the time he'd been out of form, missing his last three cuts, but Deere Run looked a good course for him and so it proved.
Having elevated his game since, this quality ball-striker who ranks fifth in this field in the 2023 tee-to-green stats and has always been sharp in the scrambling department rates an ideal fit. We know from his exploits at a lower level, including a record-breaking round of 58, that low scoring is what he does best, and he is a prime candidate to win a smaller tournament this summer.
Jaeger's closing 62 at last year's Wyndham Championship is another handy pointer given the ties between the two events, strengthened further by JT Poston, and he can build on last week's first top 10 of the year having so often finished just outside that mark.
Emiliano Grillo was runner-up to Poston, late mistakes surprising nobody and making life easier for the eventual champion, but having got over the line again at Colonial it would be no surprise whatsoever were he to double up.
The Argentine played nicely at the Travelers for a top-20 finish in far stronger company and is in better form than was the case ahead of last summer's tournament debut. Of those ahead of Jaeger in the betting, he would make most each-way appeal and there's precedent for wins to come along like buses in his case.
Like Jaeger, Callum Tarren produced his worst putting display when selected at 200/1 on these pages for last week's event in Detroit, all the more frustrating as he was the best player from tee-to-green in the entire field and might have placed had he been just average on the greens.
Tarren's top-10 finish at Deere Run last summer combined with the long-game improvements he's found lately almost earned him a second chance, but that putter does appear to be a serious issue at the moment and, while some fine ball-strikers have won this event, a good putting week is going to be required.
Local ties worth pursuing
That's also a nagging worry with in-form Doug Ghim, a fantastically accurate driver who hails from Illinois, but there are signs that DYLAN WU has turned a corner on the greens and he's worth a bet at anything above 50/1.
Wu went to college at Northwestern and made Illinois his home until moving to Scottsdale, so he's sure to enjoy plenty of support at a course where he led the field in strokes-gained approach last year and closed with a round of 66.
Having arrived back then with form figures of MC-MC-56-MC-MC-62-MC-MC-MC, Wu had been in miserable form all round but this time he's gone 25-32-MC-24, the missed cut coming by a single shot in that stacked Travelers Championship two weeks ago.
All told he's made 12 cuts in 18 this year and is gaining strokes in every department, which combined makes him a top-15 player in this field, yet he's listed outside the top 30 in the betting despite the potential benefits of his strong local connections and a course which ought to suit.
Wu's off-the-tee stats are a product of fairways more so than distance and he's sharp around the green on the relatively rare occasion he misses one, but it's that putter which offers real encouragement. Five starts running how he's improved, ranking 15th last week, and that kind of level would've had him in contention here last summer.
For similar reasons, fellow Northwestern grad DAVID LIPSKY is included for the second year running, having played well to finish 24th on debut when quoted at a slightly shorter price.
With that encouraging first start in the event behind him, Lipsky can return to form following a quiet few weeks as his long-game remains in good shape and there had been a notable upturn in his putting stats until very recently.
Exiting the Wells Fargo in May, Lipsky was losing almost a stroke per round and ranked 199th out of 203 players, but he's climbed steadily thanks to four good performances in his last six, and having putted well here last year I'm willing to speculate that he can make it five in seven.
Should that prove to be the case, we've a player who led the Memorial Tournament through 54 holes at the beginning of June, whose accuracy (22nd) and solid approach work (60th) rate an ideal combination for this considerably easier assignment.
Fourth in the Sony Open and 27th in the Wyndham are good pointers while prior to that final-round collapse under tough conditions in Ohio, he was sixth through 54 holes at Colonial, another comparable course where many a John Deere champion has either doubled up or gone close.
Power preferred to Patrick
Back up the market and I was sorely tempted to side with Patrick Rodgers, a former runner-up in an event which means a lot to him. Strictly speaking he's been better this season than last and he's a good putter who might appreciate rain-softened conditions at a course where he's been a regular feature.
Last year's 30th was particularly frustrating as he gained almost 12 strokes through his approach play and putting, which means anything like his best driving and he'd have been hard to beat, so it wouldn't surprise me if he put things together. The negatives are that his long-game has gone off the boil, and he spent last week in England which adds a travel question mark.
My inclination is to instead give the benefit of the doubt to Ryder Cup hopeful SEAMUS POWER.
Right now, the Irishman has surely drifted to the periphery on account of a quiet run which has seen him go without a top-10 finish anywhere since ending 2022 with victory in Bermuda, third in Mexico, and fifth in Georgia at the RSM Classic.
A solid start to the new year, which included featuring for GB&I at the Hero Cup, looked like an ideal platform and there's no doubt he hasn't built upon it, but I do think it's important to consider where exactly he's been playing before diagnosing deep-rooted issues.
All told, Power has made 16 starts, and 14 of them have been in majors, The PLAYERS, the WGC Match Play, or the DP World Tour's Rolex Series opener in Abu Dhabi. The exceptions have been Pebble Beach (15th) and the Byron Nelson (19th), where Day got the better of Scottie Scheffler and a handful of other world-class golfers.
In other words, this is the weakest tournament he's played in for a very long time, since winning in fact, and both of Power's victories have come under such circumstances, within his last 50 starts on the PGA Tour.
When you combine that with a very strong course record – Power ranks 10th in adjusted scoring over the past five renewals and inside the top five if you eliminate those with just one or two starts – he looks dangerous and rounds of 69 and 68 to miss the cut by one last time out suggest he's not all that far away.
Prior to that Power carded two rounds of 72 in the US Open and with his putter firing, a return to the form he showed when 18th at the Wells Fargo and 19th in Texas just six weeks ago would make him as likely a champion as almost anyone here.
Krafty selection at massive odds
I thought I might be onto something with Chad Ramey, a hot putter whose game is coming back around, but 125/1 was half the price I'd hoped for and he's overlooked along with in-form Carson Young, who hits fairways and greens and makes plenty of birdies which could make him a threat despite a lack of course experience.
Justin Lower has found his game again and it's one which depends on making a lot of putts. This is one event where zooming in on those with the potential to emulate Michael Kim and make everything they look at is far from the worst policy so he's a likeable fantasy golf option.
Preference is for those who've played this long-established event before and with victory probably beyond former champion Jonathan Byrd, I'll put forward KELLY KRAFT as the most speculative wager of the week.
Kraft has made all five cuts here dating back to fifth place on his first visit in 2016, subsequently ranking first in fairways in 2018 and eighth in the same category last year.
That's an area which has always been his strength and the Texan is 24th for the season in driving accuracy, combined with 46th in putting to make for a nice blend here at TPC Deere Run, one similar to that of the defending champion.
He ranked seventh in overall accuracy at a course better suited to big hitters last week but that was still a solid effort, making it back-to-back top-40 finishes having hit his irons really well in the Travelers Championship previously, ranking 13th in world-class company.
It might not look like the strongest set of foundations but Kraft says his game is 'showing a lot of positives' and he's excited to return to venue which has been kindest to him throughout a career which hasn't quite reached the heights promised by his US Amateur victory over Patrick Cantlay back in 2011.
Kraft's best performances have come behind former JDC winner Jordan Spieth and Colonial and John Deere specialist Kevin Na, as well as Jim Herman (subsequently a Wyndham champion), Brice Garnett and Graeme McDowell, demonstrating exactly what sort of conditions and what sort of course he needs to be at his most effective.
Deere Run is right at the top of the list and he looks far from the no-hoper he's priced up to be. Take anything 250/1 and upwards.
Finally, the more I've sat staring at this market, the more compelled I've become to include CAMERON YOUNG as an all-or-nothing, win-only bet at 18/1 generally, 20s in a place, and slightly bigger on the exchanges.
Ranked 19th in the world, one place behind Collin Morikawa, he's the best player in this field, the only American with any hope of making the Ryder Cup side, a consistent major threat and someone who has nine top-three finishes in his last 50 starts.
McCarthy has one, Henley two, and while Aberg is a potentially world-class youngster and Hadwin arrives in excellent touch, none of these players gets close to what Young has achieved when on his game over the past 18 months.
I wouldn't have Deere Run down as an ideal fit but the same is true of Harbour Town, scene of one of those top-threes, while the fact that we do have some rain around should help him along with these bentgrass greens.
The reason he's not favourite is his ho-hum form, but three of his standout performances followed a missed cut and over the course of his last two starts, each department of his game has been above-average at some stage and his approaches the best they've been since he finished 10th in the Arnold Palmer.
No, he doesn't have everything in his favour and can't be a confident selection in terms of expectations, but you'll never go far wrong backing the clear best player when they take a rare and notable drop in grade and aren't at the top of a market which instead is headed by a longstanding maiden. He has to be included.
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Posted at 1200 BST on 04/07/23
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