Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Italian Challenge Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley's latest Challenge Tour preview unearthed a second 40/1 runner-up of the year. Get his selections for this week's event.
Golf betting tips: Italian Challenge Open
1.5pts e.w. David Horsey at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Oihan Guillemoundeguy at 66/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Ashley Chesters at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Ross McGowan at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Andoni Etchenique at 500/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Argentario GC is another new venue on the Challenge Tour and I'd wager it'll prove to be among the best. The very fact that this is a trial run for next year's Italian Open says something and this course, which holds PGA National status in Italy, looks wonderful, albeit the Tuscany backdrop is a big part of that.
We've seen it on the Legends Tour where, two years ago, Ricardo Gonzalez was the only player to break par in a three-round event. That though was in part due to strong winds and the forecast this week, which is glorious, suggests it may not tell us as much as I'd like it to.
Still, the course does look tricky. It features narrow fairways, small greens, several water hazards, and some penal bunkering. There looks to be serious punishment for wide tee-shots and while dispersion will be limited by fewer drivers being hit, we'll no doubt see some big numbers. It's a shame Pierre Pineau isn't here for his customary double-bogey.
The slight unknown is whether an expected absence of wind might render it on the short and vulnerable side and with two par-fours which come in at under 320 yards, perhaps big-hitters will attempt to get on the front foot. Then again, the third (12th for members) is seriously tight and the 16th has water all along the left-hand side. My impression is that this is a course for precision, pragmatism, and patience.
Other nuggets include the fact that Matteo Manassero's younger brother is a course winner, not that this helps anybody, while there's a note on one website which claims that scoring was so high when European Tour pros were invited to test the course prior to its opening, club employees were sworn to secrecy.
It's a shame for all those connected with the course that a power cut in the region has interrupted preparations, with some greens not in the shape organisers would like. That said they're reportedly rolling nicely despite not looking great and are well-defended by some pretty juicy rough, furthering my suspicion that accuracy will be king.
There's enough then to believe that this will be a good test which suits a certain type of player, and therefore that John Parry ought to be favourite. He is now, too, and you might be able to tell that I've had to come back and add this second sentence as the general 25/1 is taken midway through Tuesday afternoon. Such is life.
Already a two-time winner this season and clear second to the now-graduated Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen in the Road to Mallorca standings, Parry could just follow the young Dane's lead by securing DP World Tour membership in advance, which could also earn him the season-long title.
His Challenge Tour form figures read 8-8-6 recently, during which time he's also been competitive on the main circuit, showcasing his accuracy in the process. That's Parry's bread and butter and helps explain why he won at Pleneuf this summer; a short, fiddly layout which is similarly exposed and fraught with danger.
His form in the wind is strong should it pick up at all and he just looks the right type for this A-to-B-to-C test. Given that you can already make a case that he's the best player in the field at the moment, it's right that he's made his way to the top of the market and 20/1 is OK. I couldn't advise taking any lower and only one major firm remains.
Parry's friend and former amateur teammate DAVID HORSEY will have to recover from a poor final round in Portugal, where for the second week running he fell from inside the top 10 to outside the top 20, but he's backed to do just that.
Horsey bagged a couple of top-three finishes soon after Parry's India win earlier in the campaign and while he's not quite kicked on, at 24th in the Road to Mallorca standings he has the class and the motivation to do so, especially around a course I expect he'll really enjoy.
Horsey also boasts a particularly strong record in Italy, with six top-10s in 17 appearances, half of them coming in the Italian Open. His DP World Tour wins all came on shorter, often tree-lined courses as did two Challenge Tour victories and having made seven cuts in a row, he looks very close to putting four rounds together.
Confidence at this level is generally best brushed off but I'm really quite sweet on Horsey, particularly at 40/1.
There's another Englishman with a broadly similar skill set who I also want to side with, namely ASHLEY CHESTERS.
He's one of the most accurate drivers in professional golf and with a best DP World Tour finish of fourth place at Valderrama, we have a good grasp of what sort of course he wants.
This one has been described as 'funky' and one hole features a tree in the middle of the green, which is the sort of endearing silliness you get at Valderrama. I'm hopeful it means a similar level of precision is required.
If it is, then the timing is great as Chesters arrives on the back of an improved 16th place in Portugal, where scoring was tricky. He shot five-under over the weekend, bettered by only four players, so comes here with something to build on.
Chesters has been trimmed from an opening 125/1, but anything 80/1 and bigger is fine. He has plenty of scope to step up again on his performance in Portugal and a short course like this is exactly what he needs.
If there is to be another shock winner after Matt Oshrine ended a run of more fancied ones, then ANDONI ETCHENIQUE would seem a potential candidate and the pick of the prices are more than enough to tempt me in.
He's been more miss than hit this year, but was second in the ProGolf Tour's order of merit in 2023, winning twice, and was a huge eye-catcher last week.
Despite shooting 76 in round one to lie 135th, Etchenique would've ended up 10th had he made par at the final hole and tied-sixth with a birdie, so while never the most promising amateur, he's now demonstrated the ability to compete on the Challenge Tour.
He'd sort of done that as early as March when, in just his third start as a Challenge Tour member, he sat third at halfway, eventually settling for 12th. Etchenique followed that up with another low one to begin the following event, but since then has generally struggled to make an impact.
The PGT is a reliable source of future winners, though, and I can't resist a small stab in the dark. That's really what it is because we don't know much about him, but what we do know is that he was the second best player in the field over the final three rounds in Portugal.
He'd have been first with a par at the last and while ifs and buts generally don't get you very far, at 300/1 and upwards they just might this time. The two courses might prove quite similar, too.
His compatriot OIHAN GUILLAMOUNDEGUY, who has five top-12s in his last seven starts and appears close to a breakthrough, is also selected as one of the most promising and in-form players on the circuit.
The (very) young Frenchman has serious potential and hopefully he can learn quickly having been the 54-hole leader last time out. He'd been on the radar for that event and with the experience behind him, a first Challenge Tour title could be just around the corner.
At 50th on the Road to Mallorca he's within touching distance of achieving his goal for 2024, which was to reach the Grand Final, and he has winning experience in Italy from last year's successful Alps Tour campaign. That's enough to overlook concerns surrounding his inexperience should this be as tricky as expected.
He's preferred to fellow promising youngster Gregorio De Leo, now well-found in the market and further cut for playing on home soil. I couldn't really find a compelling case for any of the Italians, though the fact that Lorenzo Gagli has come out of retirement and played well since doing so is somewhat notable given his level of ability.
Gagli missed out at first stage Q-School a few weeks ago (Luca Cianchetti T1, Jacopo Vecchi Fossa T8, Flavio Michetti T10, Marco Florioli T12, Giovanni Manzoni T14) but that was all due to a poor opening round, after which he played well enough. He'd be preferred to a clutch of Alps Tour players who've yet to show they're up to this.
Justin Walters might like the course and the veteran was 10th on the DP World Tour two starts ago, before proving understandably popular at 200/1 or so for the British Masters. This is several leagues below an event headlined by Tyrrell Hatton and at 100/1, there's an argument that he's overpriced in relative terms.
I am always keen to respect class-droppers like him and both Sam Jones and Nicolai von Dellinghausen also fit the bill, with the latter in particular a big player.
We're still learning about Jones, the left-hander who came through all three stages of Qualifying School last year. He's a bit wild off the tee at times, but I made note of the fact that his two top-10s this year came in Belgium and Italy, at two of the tightest courses played all season.
Von Dellinghausen meanwhile is a very tidy operator at this level, as he showed when fifth in Poland at the beginning of the month. From there he went to Crans and was inside the top 10 for most of the week in a tournament won by Matt Wallace, his approach play good enough to rank fourth in excellent company.
Along with Parry, he appealed most among the favourites, but at a new course I'm prepared to let them both go.
McGowan capable of spring another surprise
Jens Fahrbring's best DP World Tour effort came in Italy and he was third in Poland recently, so the 40-year-old is respected now that his return from injury seems to be gathering pace. He is what he is but did come close to winning the SA Open in his last completed season and I'm not surprised to see Sky Bet rate him higher than some do.
The same firm are a top-price 250/1 about former Italian Open winner ROSS MCGOWAN and he completed the shortlist having returned to Italy to play well a couple of times since, including when 22nd behind Marcel Siem earlier this summer and 27th in the same event when Robert MacIntyre won it.
McGowan missed the cut by just one shot in Portugal last Friday after a late mistake and is another quality iron player who will prefer a fiddly test like this, while he's always had that ability to pop up seemingly out of nowhere.
When he has done in recent seasons it's been at places like St Mellion, Durban, Crans and HimmerLand, each of them short and fiddly in some way, and I've a feeling he'll like it here. As a three-time Challenge Tour winner with a top-10 to his name as recently as late July, 200/1 and bigger is worth taking.
Posted at 1700 BST on 17/09/24
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