Ben Coley's golf betting tips: ISPS Handa World Invitational preview and best bets
The DP World Tour returns from its summer hiatus with the ISPS Handa World Invitational, where Ben Coley has five selections.
Golf betting tips: ISPS Handa World Invitational
1.5pts e.w. Marcus Helligkilde at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Marcus Armitage at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. John Axelsen at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
On the day the DP World Tour released what appears to be an exciting and cohesive 2024 schedule, players began arriving at Galgorm Castle for the ISPS Handa World Invitational, a return from three weeks away which on the face of it looks more whimper than bang.
With just three weeks remaining in the battle for Ryder Cup spots and one most definitely available via the European points list, it's surprising that so few of those involved are here to pick up points. Yes, there are almost double the number available in each of the the following two events, but this weak field gives Robert MacIntyre a real opportunity to strengthen his bid to qualify.
And he's probably the one European regular who doesn't even need to.
Then again, this is still a fabulous event run by the management company of a genuine pop superstar, whose love of golf is something we can all appreciate. And it provides another opportunity for men and women to play the game on the same terms alongside each other, days after the Women's Open was able to take centre stage at Walton Heath, with the Solheim Cup also set to shape the week's stories.
Leona Maguire and Georgia Hall bring star power to the women's event, where Emily Pedersen might need to win if she's to earn a captain's pick, but my expertise (yes, we're still calling it that for now) lies on the men's side as MacIntyre looks to succeed his compatriot and friend, Ewen Ferguson, in winning this title.
It's Scotland versus France at the head of the betting, Victor Perez and Romain Langasque completing the big four, and with upwards of 50 Challenge Tour regulars padding out the field, any one of the quartet could stamp their class all over it. None ought to have their chances harmed by the change in supporting course and it's hard to argue with their prices.
Galgorm Castle remains host and this parkland par 70 is no pushover, despite Ferguson's first-round 61 last year. We'd seen it several times on the Challenge Tour before John Catlin edged out Aaron Rai in the Irish Open, then Daniel Gavins stole this title from some more experienced players with a stunning final round and, most recently, Ferguson put on a bit of a show.
Not much will have changed as far as Galgorm Castle goes. It's a course where the accuracy shown by Catlin and Rai is important and ties in with venues like Diamond in Austria and Headfort in Ireland, used recently on the Challenge Tour. Brandon Robinson Thompson won that event having triumphed on the Clutch circuit here at Galgorm earlier on this year.
But there is a new element to consider in the shape of Castlerock, an old links course influenced by Harry Colt.
Castlerock replaces Massereene for one of the first two rounds, which is a parkland course. It's hard to think of many occasions when players have been asked to play links and parkland golf over the course of two days. Barseback in Sweden asks that kind of question over just 18 holes, but it's not been on the circuit for years anyway.
The addition of a links course might be made even more dramatic if the forecast holds. On Thursday, conditions look bright and breezy, whereas Friday could be colder and wet. Guesswork is involved, but the obvious conclusion would be that you don't really want to be caught beside the seaside when the worst of the weather arrives. Not that you'd really want to be playing Galgorm Castle, either.
On your Marcus, get set...
In the circumstances, swerving the top of the betting and focusing on British, Irish and Scandinavian players is my preferred approach. There are always exceptions, but events like the Dunhill Links, Irish Open, Scottish Open and this one have generally been dominated by those who are well versed in dealing with the changeable weather which threatens to be unseasonably cool at times.
By now you might also think that I consider the 'strokes-gained: is-called-Marcus' stats to be particularly relevant, but it's a happy coincidence that three of my selections share the same name and I'll make the case for MARCUS HELLIGKILDE first.
Some might have expected this talented young Dane to have emerged as a Ryder Cup hopeful by now, not least after he finished second in Korea, but he's not kicked on from that and has only once cracked the top 40 in nine starts since.
That said, he played better than his results suggest over on the PGA Tour last month, missing the cut narrowly after a bright start to the Barbasol and then paying the price for racking up pars in round two of the stableford-scoring Barracuda Championship after that.
Hitting 16 of 18 greens that day suggests his iron play remains strong, as it had been throughout his previous two starts, and with his putter having come to life in the Barbasol I suspect he might be in for a good second half of the season.
Returning to this event is a positive as not only is he part of the Modest! Golf stable, but Helligkilde finished fourth last year despite playing the par-five 10th hole in level, four shots worse than the winner, the margin by which he was beaten.
His real issue however was Massareene, which he played in two-over, and that's also why he missed the cut on the Challenge Tour in 2019. I dare say he'll be pleased to try something different this week.
Later during that generally poor campaign he finished 25th at Headfort and it should be said that while he'd played well in the States last summer, a couple of starts back in Europe offered little in the way of promise before he returned to Galgorm Castle. All evidence we have says it's a course he really enjoys.
That second place in Korea came on an exposed course which offers some hope when it comes to his round at Castlerock, as do his performances on home soil, in Qatar and in Abu Dhabi, and at 15th in scrambling he boasts one of the key skills that ties together the likes of Catlin, Rai and Lucas Herbert, contenders here in 2020.
Helligkilde also has big upside in terms of his ceiling and I like what he said after a strong first round at the Barbasol.
"I think I should just continue doing what I do because I'm pretty good at winning golf tournaments when I'm playing well. It's just about giving myself enough opportunities of being up there.
"I've played on the DP World Tour for two years now and I've only been in contention once going down the back nine. And I felt comfortable, I felt like I was able to win the golf tournament. I did not, but I feel like I just need to put myself in the position enough times and then suddenly there will come a few."
Crossing the Øresund Bridge to collect our next Marcus, it's Sweden's MARCUS KINHULT.
I appreciate that in the eyes of some the 2019 British Masters champion has become a little frustrating, especially it must be said when selected here, but his recent form has some substance to it. Anyone who makes 10 cuts in a row is in a really good place.
The last two of those came in the US, where he was 14th behind friend and former national teammate Vincent Norrman, then looked like improving upon that until stumbling late on in the Barracuda. Still, 20th made it an extremely worthwhile fortnight on the PGA Tour.
His experiences here are mixed, but one of them goes down as hugely eye-catching. In 2016 he made a good start and played well for two of the three rounds as he struck form on the Challenge Tour, finishing 36th, while there are health reasons which excuse a 2020 missed cut, but last year's effort needs upgrading hugely.
Kinhult shot 74 on day one at Massareene, then came back on day two and went 10 shots lower at Galgorm Castle, which is slightly more difficult. It was the best round of the day by fully three shots at the host course and, though a Saturday 73 couldn't spare him from the 54-hole cut, he'd gained more than five strokes on the field in total across those 36 holes.
Straight off the tee and tidy around the greens, Kinhult's game depends on lighting up his putter at the same time his approaches are firing, and he looks very close to doing that when presented with the right circumstances.
Unfortunately his worst driving display lately came when we were on in Belgium, but for which he might've been in the mix, but his best ball-striking performance in a year came in the Barbasol and as his form correlates quite nicely with Catlin (Diamond), Gavins (Al Hamra) and Ferguson (Doha), perhaps the time is now.
Back The Bullet to fire
Further up the betting I strongly considered Jayden Schaper, a serious talent whose form is very good. His season-long stats are skewed by some questionable figures back home, but the reliable data we have shows that he's done everything well of late hence 16th in the Barbasol last time out.
Schaper has a bit of a connection with this event as he made his tour debut here four years ago, winning an award for top amateur, while his missed cut in 2021 came when he was struggling. Even then, he broke 70 at Galgorm Castle and the host course does look a particularly nice fit.
How he handles Castlerock is the question, one that applies to almost everyone, but in the circumstances I'm more inclined to side with the experience of MARCUS ARMITAGE, who also has fond memories of this place.
A decade ago, Armitage made his Challenge Tour debut at Galgorm Castle and defied a slow start to contend on his way to a top-10 finish, returning two years later to repeat the feat on what was just his third Challenge Tour start.
His knowledge of the course from the EuroPro Tour no doubt helped a little bit, but it looks a really good one for a player whose sole DP World Tour win to date came on a tough, parkland course in Germany, where you have to avoid disaster off the tee.
Galgorm Castle is far less severe in the way it penalises players but it's the right kind of test for Armitage, a flusher who has kept on coming back here and producing the goods. In 2018 he opened with a 65, in 2020 he was 23rd in the Irish Open, and on his last visit he was a respectable 30th, his best form in six starts following that win at Green Eagle.
Armitage has gone well elsewhere in Ireland and Northern Ireland, too, making 12 of 13 cuts at tour level and winning in County Monaghan at a lower one, and while a little lacking in links form does have fifth in Qatar and eighth in Denmark, both on exposed courses, to call upon.
Finally, I think his game is in a good place for the most part. That was certainly true back in May but while a run of four missed cuts from mid-June may appear alarming, his long-game remained excellent. Putting improvement was all it took for him to finish 17th in the Barracuda and he'll be a big threat if picking up where he left off.
Can Eddie pepper pins again?
Matthew Southgate has also been struggling on the greens, his stats from the Open very similar to those of Scottie Scheffler alongside him on the leaderboard. With the addition of a round of links golf likely to appeal, he made my shortlist only to be quickly scrubbed off it when betting opened.
There's surely better value further down the market and I can't resist giving EDDIE PEPPERELL one more try after finishes of 22-MC when selected in recent months.
Pepperell is hard to get right, as demonstrated by ninth place in the Italian Open in May. He'd been off for eight weeks and was reappearing at a course which favours quality drivers, without doubt his weakness, yet that freshness appeared to work in his favour and not for the first time, either.
Back-to-back missed cuts since a decent T34 at the British Masters aren't ideal, particularly after a solid start in Denmark, but he signed off from Scotland with a second-round 69 and looks a danger in this significantly weaker grade if producing his best stuff.
Last year, Pepperell returned following the Open with 11th at Hillside and second a week later in Scotland, yet another example of how often he shows up in the UK and Ireland, and he kept on playing well right the way through to the DP World Tour Championship.
Something similar is definitely possible if he's been reignited not just by the break, but watching the Women's Open at Walton Heath, scene of his finest hour. And if that sounds utterly speculative, which it is, then what about the fact he played well for 54 holes here in 2021, when again returning from a month off?
Back then, Pepperell sat fifth after rounds one and two and rallied following a poor third round to finish 22nd. Add that to an excellent Irish Open record (he has Irish heritage and an Irish passport to go with it), a couple of near-misses on links courses, a good chunk of Harry Colt form and a general feeling that he's best under these conditions, and he's an intriguing option.
Throw in the fact his first win came in Doha, just like Ferguson, and that he has strong form in Denmark and the Netherlands, and I can't leave him out.
Axe to grind out another big finish
Those looking for something more speculative might consider Dermot McElroy, who won the Northern Ireland Open in 2022.
That renewal took in rounds at Castlerock and Galgorm Castle, where he'd played well in this event a year earlier, and this 400/1 shot could give the home fans something to shout about for a while, although hopes probably rest with the course's touring pro, Tom McKibbin, whose chance is far more obvious.
Bryce Easton averages 69 at Galgorm Castle and may welcome the absence of Massareene, where he'd struggled. He's spent a fair bit of time living on the English coast and was married at St Andrews, so is a South African with more exposure to the forecast conditions than many.
At 125/1 he might go well but 66/1 shot JOHN AXELSEN has winning potential in my eyes and completes the staking plan.
Like Schaper but at twice the odds, we're buying into a nice connection with the venue as he made his first tour start outside of Denmark in the 2020 Northern Ireland Open, finishing 30th having only turned pro that summer.
A spectacular Q School graduate late last year, Axelsen's first season up at this level took a while to get going, but his considerable talent has begun to shine through since the DP World Tour landed in Europe and things began to feel a bit more familiar.
He was a shot or two away from landing the place money for us at 500/1 in the Netherlands, where he showcased his driving prowess, and then contended at Green Eagle for sixth place. Four starts since show finishes of 32-18-MC-17-33, all in stronger fields than this, and the penny has well and truly dropped.
Not only is this easier than all of these tournaments, but the experience of first playing well in Denmark and then competing at PGA Tour level in the Barbasol should've done him the world of good. So will seeing Rasmus Hojgaard win the former event, the pair having been teammates for Denmark four years ago.
Four weeks away brings doubt, something that applies to so many of these, and perhaps David Law's decision to tee it up in Scotland last week will prove a shrewd one.
But providing he's ready to go, Axelsen's potential is vast, his form on exposed courses suggests he'll cope with Castlerock, and he might just make a winning return to Galgorm Castle.
Posted at 1800 BST on 14/08/23
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