Ben Coley's golf betting tips: ISPS Handa Championship preview and best bets
The DP World Tour returns this week and so too does golf expert Ben Coley, who has a range of big-priced selections to consider.
Golf betting tips: ISPS Handa Championship
1pt e.w. John Catlin at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Connor Syme at 70/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Nino Bertasio at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sami Valimaki at 150/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Lorenzo Gagli at 400/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Pep Angles at 500/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Originally scheduled to take place in Japan, the ISPS Handa Championship instead heads to Spain's INFINITUM Golf, whose name calls to mind that scene from The Office where Tim Canterbury bemoans the nightlife scene in Slough. "They call it the nightclub that never sleeps... that closes at one," says Canterbury. Here at INFINITUM, capital letters cannot hide the fact that there is in fact a limit to the golfing revelry one can enjoy, with 45 holes split across three courses on the Catalonian coast. Search for the 46th, and you're gonna be gutted.
Thankfully, the names of the courses at this impressive resort are less pointlessly aspirational, and more of the literal sort. Head for nine holes at Ruins, and, well, you'll find some Roman ruins. A stroll at Hills is more demanding, and those taking it on are rewarded with some stunning clifftop views. At the Lakes, which is where this week's tournament takes place, you will – all together now – find plenty of lakes. Or will you? I hate to return all curmudgeonly, but the website says the course in fact runs around wetlands. Perhaps we're back to aspiration, and the great and the good of sunny Spain simply won't book a tee-time at a course called Wetlands. The Lakes it is.
If these courses ring a bell, it's because INFINITUM was once Lumine, host of the much missed European Tour Qualifying School final stage from 2017-2019, and to a series of earlier, stage two qualifiers from 2011-2016. It was the tougher Lakes course which players had to tackle four times in six rounds to secure their status for the following year, so along with some Nordic Golf League events and the 2014 Challenge de Catalunya, we have plenty to go on.
It's fair to say the course in question was easier than PGA Catalunya, its predecessor, but it's no pushover and certainly not now the par-five second appears set to play as a par-four. That means we've just two of the longer holes (16 and 18) and with a scorecard yardage of less than 7,000 yards, this is quite different to the long, soft courses of that brief South African swing. With some ferocious winds in the Thursday forecast we might see scoring more in line with the subsequent Qatar Masters should all that water be brought into focus but speculation aside, the list of potential winners at INFINITUM is... well, finite, but long.
Danes dangerous but value lies elsewhere
At the top of the market are Bernd Wiesberger and Rasmus Hojgaard, both returning from promising outings on the PGA Tour. The latter followed sixth in the Corales Puntacana with 18th in a quality Texas Open, two of the strongest form lines in this field, while Wiesberger again produced elite ball-striking numbers to finish mid-division in the Valspar Championship won by Sam Burns. If either man plays to a similar level, they'll be bang there.
The trouble with Wiesberger is that what was a nagging putting concern has become a serious issue. In the Valspar, he ranked 71st out of 72 players, in the MyGolfLife Open he was 78th of 79, and in the Dubai Desert Classic he was 77th of 77. These are three of his last four starts, the other seeing him bomb as favourite for the Ras al Khaimah Championship, where again his putter was hopeless. At 36, it's a problem he needs to fix if he's to reach the elite, which is where his long-game has been for a good while.
With Nicolai Hojgaard's two wins having come on significantly longer, driver-first golf courses, Rasmus is arguably the man to beat. But there's no denying he rode a hot putter in Texas and the bottom line is this: we again return from an enforced break on the DP World Tour, and desperate though I am to find a winner, patience is vital – albeit not in significant enough supply to give Romain Langasque another spin.
Instead I'll start with my favourite bet if not the most confident, of course, and that's 400/1 chance LORENZO GAGLI.
This Italian hits it short and straight and is only ever likely to be a factor on courses which properly reward accuracy, and undermine power to some degree. Two par-fives and plenty of wedge par-fours ought to mean that the Lakes is one such course, and Gagli has played well every time he's been here.
In 2014, he was 12th in the Challenge de Catalunya, an event cut to 54 holes. That was his best finish of the year to date and only once during a miserable campaign did he better it, again on a short, tight course, this time in France. His struggles meant a trip to Qualifying School and though he exited here at the second stage, Gagli shot rounds of 66 and 67 to add to rounds of 67 and 68 back in the spring.
His only other visit came in 2017, this time at final stage, and he added rounds of 65, 66 and 67 at the Lakes to finish 18th and secure status on the European Tour. It was an excellent effort after a slow start, with just six players bettering his final 36 holes of the 74 who made the cut.
This is rock-solid course form and it coincides with an upturn in his play of late. There's no doubt he's been badly out of sorts, but the return of that trademark accuracy – nobody has hit more fairways over his last two starts – has married with some precision iron play (second GIR last time, 10th and 27th strokes-gained approach last twice) to see him fade from 16th at halfway to 34th in Kenya, and from 24th to 49th in Qatar.
Ranking 28th and 25th in strokes-gained tee-to-green across these appearances, Gagli now has something to build on and while it's not much, he is abundantly capable under the right conditions. We can see again what they are with a look at his career highlights, which include second in Madrid, second at the fiddly Crans-sur-Sierre, and first in Kenya on the Challenge Tour.
Since the return of golf in the summer of 2020 his best efforts have been on a very tricky, Crans-like course in Austria (ninth), over at Diamond in the same country (15th) and at Valderrama, where he was third through 54 holes.
Given that two of his four starts this year came at Al Hamra, that made-for-Nicolai course where big-hitting Ryan Fox also won, the fact he's made three cuts strikes me as solid evidence he's getting there again and he might just need one of these made-for-Gagli courses, few and far between though they are.
At 400/1 with six places or 300/1 if you want one more, Gagli is a fun, sporting play with which to welcome back the DP World Tour.
More seriously, JOHN CATLIN has won at two of those three courses where Gagli has played well, and he's therefore impossible for me to leave out at 50/1.
The American has three wins since the autumn of 2020 and always at courses which can't really be overpowered, a comment which covers not just Diamond and Valderrama but also Galgorm Castle. Short but accurate off the tee, Catlin's preference is to hit three-wood rather than driver, and he's the type to plot his way around when birdies are hard to come by.
Hopefully, the breeze in the forecast gives the Lakes some added bite and if it does, this proper grinder could be right in the mix. He was fifth on the Asian Tour last week to potentially give him a sharpness edge over most of these, and his ball-striking when last seen on this circuit was fine despite Doha being long enough for him.
Catlin was 52nd here at 2019 Qualifying School and while not sparkling form at first glance, note that it came days after he'd won the Thailand Open, at the time the biggest title of his burgeoning career. That required extra holes and on reflection, it was perhaps not an ideal way to prepare for a six-round slog which began with a bogey-free 65 at the Lakes but petered out thereafter.
Now proven at this level, if the course plays as I hope it might, he looks a big danger to those at the head of the betting.
Among them, Laurie Canter would've been more appealing without the breeze for all that he did tough it out in Qatar last time, and the same goes for JB Hansen. Like Joost Luiten at a bigger price, the Dane can struggle badly around the greens and at a course where ruinous errors will be made by many, he looks a prime candidate to offer plenty of promise before shooting himself in the foot.
Instead, I'll take CONNOR SYME to follow home Ewen Ferguson and make it back-to-back Scottish winners.
Syme makes straightforward appeal, as he's been in excellent form since the drop from Rolex Series grade, making five cuts in five and with a worst finish of 35th. He's been hitting his irons much better and this tidy operator, whose best form includes Valderrama (eighth), Diamond (second, fourth) and Karen (third), looks well capable of winning in this company.
He also boasts course form, having finished 11th here in 2017, only winner Sam Horsfield outscoring him over the final four rounds. Syme's efforts included an eight-under 63 at the Lakes course and he fired another low round when a more modest 57th on his only other visit one year later, underlining how much he likes it here.
All that had him in the staking plan at 66/1 but it's topped off by the fact he and Ferguson are best friends. Before he went on to triumph in Qatar, Ferguson had led in Kenya and told The Scotsman that Syme's support and the competition he brings had been key to his success over the last year or so.
"We’re together every single day and, as I walked off in Kenya, he said to me: 'you were never going to lose; you were only going to learn'," revealed Ferguson. "I took a lot from that.
"We are so close. Every Wednesday, I’ve been playing a money game with him – it’s only for £20 but it’s more the bragging rights and pride that matters most.
"We've been doing that the last three weeks and I think it just lets you zone in a little bit then when the tournament starts you are a bit more clued up about what is going on.
"I would always be there for Connor, as he is for me. We’re both out here having fun and trying to learn as we go on. I am pretty sure we will have some good battles down the stretch in the future."
Those comments came before Ferguson's dramatic breakthrough, after which Syme posted: "So so proud of you mate, you really do deserve this."
Sometimes the little things make all the difference, like Jordan Spieth missing his first Masters cut and arriving at the RBC Heritage with that little bit more incentive to play well in a tournament which is generally more a post-Augusta comedown for the game's elite.
For a player like Syme, seeing Ferguson's success could be a vital part of his own journey to winning on the DP World Tour.
One player who has made that task look pretty easy so far is ANTOINE ROZNER, and this talented Frenchman looks a value bet with conditions to suit.
Ever since losing a play-off to Rasmus Hojgaard in Mauritius, Rozner has looked comfortable in the wind and he showed as much last year with victory under demanding conditions in Qatar. That was his second in a short space of time and I can forgive his quiet spell thereafter, thoughts of a Ryder Cup spot no doubt creeping in as they once did with compatriot Alex Levy.
Rozner, who spent the latest DP World Tour break receiving an award for being the best French golfer in 2021, has been hitting his approaches well again lately and had also been driving it nicely before his Doha defence. Four cuts made in sequence are nothing if not a platform and as a past winner in Spain on the Challenge Tour, as well as having been third at Valderrama, this could be a good fit for him.
Mid-pack at 2018 Qualifying School, Rozner recently told Instagram followers that he's 'really close to a great result' and at anything 66/1 and upwards, I don't mind speculating that it comes here.
Lakes return nicely timed
Jazz Janewattananond appeals at similar odds and he has fond memories of the Lakes course, having holed out for a closing eagle here in 2017. That was enough to secure his European Tour card and though his route back has been circuitous, who knows how his career might have panned out had he not risen to the occasion in some style.
Preference though is for NINO BERTASIO, another who should enjoy a test he knows pretty well.
Bertasio shot a closing 64 here at Qualifying School in 2015 and that might have been the round of his life. It was enough, just, to progress to final stage, where by the skin of his teeth he scraped his way onto the European Tour. Despite remaining winless, he's a low-key success story having remained at the top table ever since.
Returning to the Lakes should bring about some good memories and Bertasio has played well in Spain in general, making 13 of his last 14 cuts, bagging six top-25 finishes, and finishing inside the top 10 at Valderrama when he needed a big week to keep hold of his playing rights.
In many ways then all roads lead back to Spain for the Swiss-born Italian, who is quietly establishing himself as one of the sharpest iron players around. Bertasio currently ranks seventh in strokes-gained approach (minimum 10 rounds) on the DP World Tour, and has produced positive figures in 10 of his last 11 starts, twice leading the field.
At some stage this ought to be properly rewarded and where better than the course which changed the course of his career.
Consider the local Angles
I'm a little reluctant to go into battle without a Spaniard, as so often they do raise their games on home soil. We saw as much when Rafa Cabrera Bello denied Adri Arnaus late last season and as well as the obvious, youngsters Angel Hidalgo and Eduard Rousaud are potentially worth chancing for the first-round lead should they be handed what look like good draws.
At the prices, however, I'd rather side with the proven form of PEP ANGLES, who finished second in Mallorca last year on the back of a run of missed cuts and could do something similar.
A winner in Spain on the Challenge Tour, powerful Angles has plenty of ability and his other standout effort at this level, by the sea in Sicily, also came following a string of weekends off. He is a course winner of sorts via the 2019 Fourball Championship here at INFINITUM, and back in 2017 took 12th place at Q-School with all four Lakes rounds under-par.
Having also made the cut in the 2018 edition, he's got some handy course form, a proven ability to stand tall when playing close to home, and last time out in Qatar his ball-striking was solid. Combined, those factors are enough for the smallest of wagers at odds as big as 500/1, as it's really not all that hard to see him popping up on the leaderboard.
David Law's approach play and second stage win here mark him down as another to consider but the final name off my list was Niall Kearney, who just looked a shade skinny despite being of interest. The Irishman needs to take opportunities like these given his lowly status and is another who knows the course well.
But while I could talk myself out of him, resisting SAMI VALIMAKI has proven beyond me so I'll stretch the rules to allow for seven selections. Remember, the total investment is smaller, as is the chance of bagging the winner, than it might be for three or four selections at shorter odds.
Valimaki has produced back-to-back driving performances of the level which saw him star in 2020, winning at 250/1 for us in Oman and adding six more top-10s, including in the high-class DP World Tour Championship.
Since the very beginning of the following year, the Finn has really struggled off the tee, but he backed up signs of life in South Africa with another strong display in Qatar. And as confidence begins to grow, he's also stepped up his approach play, producing his best ball-striking figures since that Dubai event at the back-end of 2020 when last we saw him.
With his putter also good, only some poor shots around the green have kept him away from the action and these statistics tend to be pretty flimsy. Truth be told it's never yet been a strength of Valimaki's, and if he does take further steps forward with his long-game it may not stop him from delivering at a big price.
Having been 12th here at Q-School and 10th at Valderrama, I just can't leave him out. Speculation then is the name of the game in Spain, and plenty of it.
Posted at 2010 BST on 18/04/22
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