Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Horizon Irish Open preview and best bets
Thomas Detry can shed his maiden tag in this week's Irish Open at Mount Juliet, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Irish Open
1.5pts e.w. Adri Arnaus at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Thomas Detry at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kalle Samooja at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The countdown to the Open Championship begins in earnest with this week's Irish Open, and though it's in some ways a shame that we're not by the sea on one of the island's many fabulous links courses, Mount Juliet will once again demonstrate that there's plenty on offer inland, too.
This parkland par 72, which measures 7,264 yards, is an immaculate Jack Nicklaus design which was no pushover last year, just three players getting beyond 14-under. Lucas Herbert had to do everything well to win, his short-game impressing as it so often does, but there was no one formula here with the likes of Rikard Karlberg and Richard Bland contrasting with Herbert, Grant Forrest and Sean Crocker.
It was on balance a bit of a strange tournament, one in which the weather played its part. Three players ended round one inside the top five but ended round two having missed the cut, whereas runner-up Karlberg charged from 73rd to 23rd and pressed on from there. He wasn't alone and while Herbert led after an opening 64 and was never headed, behind him all sorts of chaos ensued.
Tournament favourite Shane Lowry will be hoping to keep things rather more simple and I suspect he'll do far better than his last two appearances in what he calls his fifth major, which have seen him disappoint at short odds. The first of them, at Galgorm Castle, came when he confessed to running on empty, and last year he finished 23rd here when likely distracted by his upcoming and long-awaited Open defence. Refreshed and perhaps given a little jolt by missing the cut in the US Open, he's the one to beat.
Who's the best bet for the Irish Open?
Rising star Seamus Power is second favourite, but I would be inclined to suggest Thomas Pieters and Tyrrell Hatton are bigger threats. Pieters was robbed on Sunday but he's bounced back from a similar disappointment before, winning in Denmark after losing to a long putt on the final green of the Czech Masters. He was 12th here last year, has won twice since, and a fourth DP World Tour top-10 in succession probably beckons.
Hatton though is the really interesting one. Just a few weeks ago he was my headline selection in Canada at odds of 30/1 and this is both a significant drop in grade and a return to the comforting surrounds of his home circuit. He's won once every 10 starts in Europe over the last five or so years, boasts a 40% top-10 strike-rate, and when last playing on these shores was going off either alongside or just above Lowry in the market. If you can forgive Canada and a so-so US Open, odds of 20/1 at a course he should enjoy have to be tempting.
On balance, there are just enough concerns relating to his approach play and putting, usually Hatton's strengths, so I'll move on to a collection of each-way bets in an event where all of the appeal lies in the second tier of the betting.
That's where THOMAS DETRY resides and after some encouraging signs in Germany, he's ready to get going for the year.
Detry has undeniably been disappointing for the most part and has tumbled down the world rankings as a result, but 29th in the European Open was followed by 15th last week and these two parkland performances likely represent a good form guide for Mount Juliet.
The Belgian was one of those who missed the cut here last year despite an opening 67, but that was purely down to his short-game on his first start since the US Open, and he was right back on track the following week when unfortunate to lose a play-off for the Scottish Open.
Based in Cornwall for a while back in 2020 and a runaway Challenge Tour winner in England six years ago, Detry's form next door in the UK is very strong, with his three best performances coming in Scotland, England and Wales, all over the last couple of years as he continues to threaten to shed his maiden tag.
He's continued to drive the ball well for much of 2022 but it's his iron play that needed to improve, and that's what happened last Friday when he produced a brilliant second-round 66 in the BMW International Open. Back-to-back 69s followed and, with his Open Championship spot already sealed, he can finally deliver on his massive potential.
The Open has to be factored into calculations here, as at the time of writing qualification across four sites in England and Scotland is ongoing. That alone is enough to dissuade me from selecting Aaron Rai, whose form in this event and on parkland courses in general is strong. Rai has been playing really well throughout his rookie season on the PGA Tour and Herbert was returning from a stint in the US when dominating last year.
The trouble is, Rai has flown from Connecticut to Scotland and if he does come through qualifying, it wouldn't shock me were he to withdraw. Regardless, it's hardly ideal preparation and the same goes for Ewen Ferguson, who I really did like at 150/1. He's won an amateur title in Ireland, played well in this at Galgorm Castle and was back striping it last week, but he's never played Mount Juliet and won't be arriving at the course until Wednesday.
ADRI ARNAUS is one of those whose place at St Andrews is assured and the Spaniard looks overpriced here as he seeks to make it two wins for the season.
Arnaus delivered a bit of a rope-a-dope when getting off the mark in Spain on the back of two missed cuts, but it had been coming with six top-10 finishes in his previous eight starts and as one of the most talented players on this circuit, he's very likely to keep climbing the ranks.
Already, he's the seventh-ranked member of this field at 58th in the world, with plenty of incentive to move inside the all-important top 50, and with a dozen players priced shorter it really does strike me that he's being underestimated on the basis of a missed cut in the US Open.
Arnaus continued to hit his irons really well there, however, and as we so often see, approach work has very much proven to be the missing piece of the puzzle. He's been an excellent putter for more than a year now and while there was a lapse in his driving last season, he's put that right too and no longer has a significant weakness in his game.
That wasn't the case when he played here last summer, hence it took an outrageous putting performance to make the cut, but there's just no comparison between his game then and now and having triumphed on a tricky parkland course in Spain, he could very easily double up here in Ireland.
Completing a trio of huge talents who I believe have genuine potential to at least make a run at the Ryder Cup places, it's back to the bang in-form ROMAIN LANGASQUE.
Five top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts demonstrate how well Langasque is playing and right now he is not only one of the best drivers and iron players on the circuit, but he's producing some of the best stats around the green, too. Only with putter does he lack a red-hot performance but that club has pulled its weight often enough this year.
Last week's fifth place in Germany was pound-for-pound his best performance since winning in Wales, but eighth place at the Belfry represents an equally strong pointer. These are parkland courses where his strong driving is a huge plus and it's under such conditions that his second DP World Tour title will likely come.
He drove it well here last year but missed the cut because the rest of his game was poor, but just like Arnaus there's been huge improvement since. Three times in his last five starts he's ranked inside the top three in strokes-gained tee-to-green, for example, whereas he came here having only ranked inside the top 20 once all season.
There's plenty of space off the tee at what's a fairly typical Nicklaus design so Langasque can go and thrash that driver of his and if he does pick up where he left off in Germany, he seems sure to go well. As a former winner of the Amateur Championship which earned him a go at St Andrews in 2015, he'll be very keen to qualify for the Open, and that's something he achieved by going close in Scotland back in 2019.
Scotsman at home in Ireland
On a similar note, RICHIE RAMSAY's absence from Final Qualifying seems notable to me, as he's effectively backing himself to get the job done either here or on home soil next week.
With nine of the world's top 10 in attendance for the Scottish Open, nicking a spot at The Renaissance will be a far tougher challenge than doing so here, and he came agonisingly close to doing so last summer when missing out by a single shot. Ramsay was tied fourth, making just five bogeys all week, but the final place went to Richard Bland owing to his higher world ranking.
It was a cruel blow but further evidence that Ramsay can use the incentive of the Open to his benefit, just as he did when qualifying with second place in this event in 2017, and with sixth place in the Scottish Open a year earlier.
Clearly effective in the UK, having contended for both these events and played well a number of times in England and Wales including at the Belfry in May, Ramsay actually believes it's in Ireland that he's at his most dangerous.
"I always think I play my best golf almost in Ireland," he said last year. "I won the Irish Stroke Play when I was younger. We won the Under-21 Team Championships just outside Portmarnock, and then had a chance and played great at Portstewart which the front nine there is nine of my favourite holes, or best nine-hole stretch in golf pretty much.
"I kind of come here and I feel sort of at peace, and the fans always come out. They make the difference, I think, when you play in front of them, like we don't get to play in front of, you know, probably 70,000 to 80,000 when they are all coming in.
"I remember stopping at a petrol station once, and this little kid is like, 'There's Richie Ramsay.' They all know the players and they know where they are from, and they know if they are a Callaway or a Taylor Made player and they know their rank and stuff like that. They love it, they absolutely love it, and the whole villages around it seem to get involved in it. It's obviously a great place to play golf."
That was en route to a top-five finish which saw him do everything well, and as mentioned he's since blown a big chance to win the British Masters on a very similar course. Ramsay also boasts some encouraging Nicklaus form with top-10s at the London Club and Gleneagles, while eighth place at Close House stands out too as Dale Whitnell said it's a very similar course to this one.
Last week's 13th place in Germany was a huge improvement on previous efforts there – he'd played Eichenried four times with a best of 60th – and with three top-15 finishes in his last five, all built on strong driving, there's no reason he can't do as he did in 2021 and make Mount Juliet the scene of his best performance of the season.
Americans of interest at Nicklaus design
Crocker is very tempting as his long-game is firing again and it'll only take a half-decent week on and around the greens for the American to remind us all how talented he is. He led the field in strokes-gained approach here last year and it could be that withdrawing from Open qualifying is a positive, but given his injury issues down the years that's too much of an unknown for me to take a chance.
Instead, perhaps JOHANNES VEERMAN can deservedly seal his Open spot having been so cruelly denied last year.
With the top 30 players in the year-end Race to Dubai all earning invites, Veerman finished 31st and missed out by a single shot. Not only that, he carded a final-round 73 in the DP World Tour Championship but still would've finished 30th but for Garrick Higgo making birdie at the final hole in a round of 67.
Fine margins then and while new dad Veerman probably doesn't dwell on it and may not even know, he will certainly be aware that his third place here last year earned him an Open debut. Playing well at St George's may also have been part of the sequence of events which led him to his first win in Prague, and I reckon he can do something similar and book at ticket to St Andrews.
Certainly, his approach play is improving fast having taken steps forward in each of his last five starts, and his putter has fired for most of the year. Typically long and solid off the tee, that was very much the case on his Mount Juliet debut and it's worth noting his season had amounted to very little upon arrival here last July.
This time it's coming to the boil with back-to-back top-20 finishes and if he can get back to his best off the tee on a significantly wider course than the one used for the Scandinavian Mixed, he might emulate John Catlin and win the Irish Open on a parkland track.
Catlin could go well with his iron play starting to fire, especially as his title defence last year came when in the doldrums yet still saw him prove competitive on a new course. However, the best bet I can find at three-figure prices is KALLE SAMOOJA, who completes the staking plan.
Winner of the European Open earlier in June, Samooja had earlier been fifth in Qatar to underline his effectiveness under tough conditions. Doha has always been a good guide to UK form whether by the coast or at the Nicklaus-designed Gleneagles, and there's some wind and a spot of rain in the forecast for this week.
Since winning, Samooja has only played twice and I can totally ignore the US Open, while last week he'd have finished 10th in Germany had he birdied the par-five finishing hole. Instead, a double-bogey kept him out of the picture but his approach play and putting were excellent and indicate that he might well be able to build on his first DP World Tour success.
Errant drives can be an issue but they weren't last year, with driver the best club in his bag but his short-game resulting in a narrow missed cut. That's very much the opposite of the typical Samooja experience and I just wonder whether these wider targets off the tee, or at least the visual impression of space Nicklaus likes to create, will again help him to outperform his own usual standards in that department.
If so, he's well set to add his name to a long list of Scandinavians who've thrived in the UK and Ireland, including compatriot Mikko Ilonen who won this title in 2014. The fact he has strong form in the Dubai Desert Classic (fourth and 12th) ties him in with Herbert, he's got a top-10 under difficult conditions in the Scottish Open, and eighth at the London Club last year gives us some Nicklaus form too.
Posted at 1130 BST on 28/06/22
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