Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Hero Indian Open preview and best bets
Following a 100/1 play-off loser on Sunday, golf expert Ben Coley attempts to go one better with his selections for the Indian Open.
Golf betting tips: Indian Open
2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Adrian Otaegui at 40/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jeff Winther at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
The Asian Swing (which features the Masters in Georgia and the PGA Championship in Kentucky) got off to a fabulous start in Singapore – albeit one that would have been even more fabulous had Kiradech Aphibarnrat managed to edge Sunday's play-off with Jesper Svensson to land us a 100/1 winner.
Now we're off to India, where the following two things can both be true: DLF G&CC (I don't make the rules) is gaudy and preposterous, yet it does make for an excellent viewing experience. There are myriad reasons why anyone might watch golf, but among the most common is to see drama brought about by difficulty. At DLF, while the process is crudely man-made and in some ways maddening, it's all but guaranteed.
Measuring 7,416 yards, this is a stock-length par 72 but that is where any sense of normality ends. Disaster lurks everywhere and double-figure scores will certainly happen. Last year's renewal produced a round of 91 and many more in the 80s, while the DP World Tour's blue, used to signify something worse than a bogey, is liberally splattered around the hole-by-hole leaderboard as if someone detonated a can of total disaster.
Limiting mistakes is therefore the challenge, with last year's German one-two making 11 bogeys between them and nothing worse than that. This made Marcel Siem and Yannik Paul by some margin the standout bogey-avoiders in the field, which is why only one other player got close to them, the tidy and reliable Joost Luiten.
DLF is about pragmatic golf; fairways and greens, two-putts from distance, that kind of thing. And it explains why almost every contender you'll find since the event came here ranked highly in those old-fashioned ball-striking stats while also scrambling well. Luiten for instance is a bad chipper whose scrambling numbers are good, and that's because when he does miss a green, it's seldom by far.
Along with a very clear correlation with Le Golf National, it's impossible to escape the fact that those who have played well here have, for the most part, arrived in tip-top shape. It seems logical to conclude that this just isn't a course you can conquer if you've got underlying issues in your game, unless that is you're an inspired Stephen Gallacher, son on the bag beside you.
The 2023 leaderboard is a perfect demonstration of this. Paul had been runner-up, Luiten third, in Thailand the week before. Alex Knappe in sixth had shared third in the same event, which had been won by Thorbjorn Olesen, who finished alongside Knappe here. Jorge Campillo was the only player in the top seven who didn't look like he'd been playing well, yet from India onwards he was for a while just about the best on the Tour.
I therefore believe we're best looking to Singapore contenders with strong long-games. The trouble is, virtually all such players are in attendance, and at least half a dozen could be described as playing beautifully bar the putter. Which of them, if any, can uncover some putting improvement might be the answer to the whole thing.
Jordan Smith is the most obvious one but at 18s I can let him go, with ready preference for BERND WIESBERGER, who remains the class act of the field on his best form.
Since returning quietly from his dalliance with LIV Golf, Wiesberger has slipped right back into things without yet finding himself in contention, but that ought to come soon with his ball-striking as good as it was.
He was 21st in a high-class Dubai Desert Classic off a long break, 37th and 16th thereafter, and then returned from six weeks away with another top-20 last week. It might have been better, too, as a birdie at the last, a reachable par-five where he instead made bogey, would've made it a first top-10 since he departed in 2022.
Aphibarnrat and Svensson, it should be noted, had played golf in March and plenty of it, so those who did elect to skip those three events in Africa are probably worth upgrading. Wiesberger, who didn't even go to Qatar after Bahrain, is as entitled as anyone in this field to improve for getting four more rounds in the bag.
Now he comes to a course which should prove the most difficult he's played this year, where perhaps he won't need to putt all that well to win. No doubt he'll need to be better than the strokes-gained stats say he has been, but if he was one good swing from placing in Singapore, similar ball-striking would make him a huge danger in Delhi.
Wiesberger has played here once before, in 2019, and finished 23rd. That was when he was on the comeback trail following an injury and had started the year 42-MC-MC-MC-55-MC. This event very much got the wheels turning as he went on to win three times in 15 starts, the beginning of a run which would see him make the Ryder Cup side.
I'd take the view that the specific nature of the golf course helped accelerate that process and, with his game in better shape this time, anything like a decent putting week could be enough. The fact that he's a Le Golf National champion with form at Valderrama very much seals the deal at 28/1 generally and he's a relatively confident selection.
Course Fitz progressive youngster
Ewen Ferguson, Richard Mansell, Luiten and Sebastian Soderberg are the others who fit the same broad description but the one who made most appeal, Luiten, seems short enough having been cut on Monday. Soderberg is a player I like and has been runner-up at Valderrama but he can run up some big numbers, so he too is left out.
Instead, I'll trust ALEX FITZPATRICK to prove up to the task of contending at a course where you'd perhaps suggest experience could make the difference, following wins for Siem, Gallacher and SSP Chawrasia.
However, Matt Wallace also won here and Paul almost managed it on his DLF debut, while Fitzpatrick did in fact play in the event last year, his first start of 2023, hitting it well to finish 25th.
With 13th place at Le Golf National also to his name, that coming very early on in his professional career, there are already some indications that this sort of test is ideal, and you could draw the same conclusion based on his win at St Mellion, which is quirky, fiddly, and pretty difficult.
Having also been ninth in India on the Challenge Tour there's plenty to like about Fitzpatrick, who was 21st last week following a month away. Two of his four rounds were bogey-free, too, and as well as being third in this field for the season in that department (24-plus rounds), he was third last season, too.
That's in part thanks to a brilliant short-game when firing – he's the Tour leader in scrambling having been 16th in 2023 – and at 36th in driving accuracy, he has the sort of game that might just marry up perfectly with DLF.
I was really impressed with Andy Sullivan on Sunday, when a couple of putts slid by and his approach to the 18th looked all over the flag only to go through the green. He needed eagle to get into a play-off and while frustrated no doubt to fall short, he'll have taken plenty from the way he hit the shots on the last four or five holes in particular.
Sullivan has two top-fives in his last three and, like Wiesberger, boasts a touch of class together with a strong Le Golf National record. All of this adds up to a straightforward argument, but I wasn't prepared to dip under 40/1 and that's where his price is with the vast majority of firms now.
Instead, ADRIAN OTAEGUI looks the one to be with at 45/1, or 40s with a few more places.
Granted, he did miss the cut in Singapore but I'll make an exception to the suggested profile for a player who closed with his best round of the week to finish 10th here on his sole previous visit five years ago.
Otaegui had done very little of note to begin that season, bar one good performance in the volatile Super 6 competition in Perth, so while it's been a hit-and-miss start to 2024 there's a little more substance to his profile thanks to fourth place in Kenya.
That was the last time he played what you'd call an Otaegui course and I certainly don't think last week's meets the description. We saw what powerhouse Svensson did and those big, wide fairways meant that Otaegui's arrow-straight driving was never likely to be as beneficial as he'd like it to be.
Ultimately though it was a misfiring putter that saw him depart early and that club has been the problem since he won at Valderrama 18 months ago. That said, there have been better signs in general lately and he demonstrated in Kenya that he need only rank above-average to contend under the right conditions.
I'm not sure there's a player with a better profile for the course in this field. He is the most accurate driver on the circuit and rock-solid with his approach shots, meaning that despite being wobbly over short putts, his scrambling and bogey avoidance stats are outstanding.
That win at Valderrama is a positive along with second at Leopard Creek and four top-20s in his last five visits to Le Golf National, so with his iron play of a very high standard again lately, he has every chance if he can find a working putting stroke for the week.
Schwab can pass the test
Indian duo Anirban Lahiri and Shubhankar Sharma will both be popular but I wouldn't have this down as the former's course. Sharma is more appealing and was a confident selection for the Kenya Open only to badly disappoint before rebounding with seventh place in Singapore, perhaps an ideal platform for this.
I'll swerve him though and opt for two at bigger prices, starting with another Austrian seeking a return to his best, MATTHIAS SCHWAB.
Still only 29, this former college standout looked on the cusp of becoming a serious player in 2019 but has struggled since trying to make his way on the PGA Tour, where he finished 145th on the FedEx Cup last year.
That sort of ranking would still get him the odd start so it's noteworthy that he's back on the DP World Tour, utilising a new exemption for players who missed the top 125, and I expect come the end of the year he'll have reestablished himself as one of the stronger players on this circuit.
For that reason he's one I've kept a close eye on since December and now feels like the time to strike, as he's produced a couple of better performances lately and arrives seeking his fifth cut made in succession. Last week in particular was encouraging up until a poor final round that saw him fall from fifth to 43rd.
Clearly, Schwab will need to recover quickly and his confidence might still be fragile, but he is hitting a lot of greens again and generally looking like he's back on track. More accurate off the tee than he has been in a long time and still a good scrambler, if the putter has clicked then he'll be making waves soon enough.
The other reason this event stands out is that he's been fourth and 18th in two previous starts at DLF. The first of those came when he was in comparable form and it's perhaps significant that his best results since coming back from the USA came at Leopard Creek and Muthaiga, where he'd enjoyed success previously, and where pars are often handy.
Still to win anything of note as a professional, Schwab would have that question to answer on Sunday, but I'll take my chances on an undoubted talent who has plenty more to offer.
Winther is coming
I was quite keen to look through the Swedes who mobbed Svensson on the 18th green on Sunday and Simon Forsstrom made some appeal following a good debut in this, but JEFF WINTHER looks a better bet.
The Dane, also a past DP World Tour champion, can be excused a miserable first try last year as he was in terrible form at the time, and I'll instead draw encouragement from finishes of eighth and second in his last two starts at Le Golf National.
There's always some trepidation involved in taking a player who relies so heavily on his putter but Winther is also well above-average in driving accuracy, and that win in Mallorca came soon after the sort of upturn in his approach play statistics that we saw last week when 11th in Singapore.
Those numbers do have to be taken with a pinch of salt but he certainly did a lot right after a slow start and holed out an approach shot for eagle on Sunday, part of a strong final round that could set him up very nicely for this if last year is anything to go by.
Also 24th in the SDC Championship and a contender either side of Christmas, Winther is back to his best and worth chancing even if he does have to prove he can score around here.
Rafael Cabrera Bello is playing better than his results imply with his 40th birthday not far away and is of some appeal, but the most interesting outsider is Dale Whitnell.
Last year's Scandinavian Mixed winner is an accurate driver who can be very good with his irons when dialled in, and following a post-victory slump he's started to play much better having made six cuts in his last eight.
Singapore seems to suit him more than you'd expect as he'd also been 12th there last year, backing that up in Thailand a week later, but this overdue debut in India could prove to be a good fit.
He's been 26th at Le Golf National, loves Leopard Creek, and says his game is 'trending nicely'. That's been the key to finding the winner of this tournament and at three-figure prices, he wouldn't have needed to be much bigger to make the staking plan.
As it is, he's been trimmed as well and I'll stick with five more realistic winners of an event that features some of the very best and the very worst things about professional golf. Just how we like it.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 25/03/24
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