Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Hangzhou Open preview and best bets
Matthew Cheung is one of just two selections from Ben Coley for the penultimate event of the Challenge Tour season, the Hangzhou Open.
Golf betting tips: Hangzhou Open
1.5pts e.w. Matthew Cheung at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Zhengkai Bai at 300/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
There's plenty to play for in the penultimate event of the Challenge Tour season, after which the top 46 players on the Road to Mallorca will have earned a start in the Grand Final a fortnight from now. That figure is usually 45, but Robin Williams is a non-member who has already earned more than enough points to head to Spain and the field is therefore expanded to accommodate him.
Of course, the key number is 20, which is how many cards are given out at the end of the season. That too seems set to increase by one, as Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is on track to earn sufficient Race to Dubai points that would mean he doesn't need his Challenge Tour exemption. Good news for his compatriot who occupies 21st place, perhaps.
All of this is part of the fun of the feeder tour but I can't say I've enjoyed many tournaments less than I did last week's. Thursday saw Wilco Nienaber shoot eight-under to lead and Tapio Pulkkanen sit just behind him, before Alex Levy and Lucas Bjerregaard made serene early progress. Come the end of the week, none of the four was inside the top 10.
Perhaps that's a good lesson in excessive confidence and while vindicated somewhat by an overseas winner from high up the Challenge Tour standings (Hamish Brown ranked fourth heading in, which made him second among the assembled field), the home tour probably should've won it, albeit with a player from the Philippines.
This week, China has the favourite, and I'm mad about Wenyi Ding. In fact I selected him in last year's Hainan Open, where he was third at 50/1, and believe there's a very good chance he proves to be China's first world-class men's player. Everything about what he's done as an amateur, from Asia to the USA, suggests he has that sort of potential.
Wenyi doesn't turn 20 until next month and this will be his professional debut having given up Masters and Open invites which came with his recent win in the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, for which he was favourite. That decision was based partly on the fact that he also had the offer of DP World Tour membership for 2025 and I can't wait to see what he can do with it. PGA Tour rookie of the year 2026? Just maybe.
Already, DataGolf rate him about the equal of Oliver Lindell, the clear form player of the Challenge Tour, and Wenyi is therefore an understandable favourite. You won't find me arguing against the idea of this potential superstar ending his amateur career with a win, then beginning his professional career with another.
He played the Asian Games at this course last year, finishing 15th, so with course experience also covered, I can see why some will be keen to get ahead of the game. That being said, he's now about the same price as he was for the APAC and while I couldn't argue with the standout 16/1 on Monday, I can let him win at a revised 10s.
Preference is for MATTHEW CHEUNG, a Hong Kong pro who is a little overpriced at 40s.
Cheung also played in the Asian Games here, finishing just behind Wenyi, and has since gone on to make a really good start to life on the Asian Development Tour, where he's currently sixth in the order of merit despite having played just five events.
Last week he stepped up to the Asian Tour for the Macau Open, finishing 16th after a closing 65, just behind Brian Harman and Min Woo Lee, and he's barely put a foot wrong all year. That includes when coming back to the China Tour, where he's been ninth, second and third, much improved from his rookie campaign in 2019, and DP World Tour Q-School, where he finished T1 at First Stage last month.
Had he played enough rounds to rank with DataGolf, Cheung would be right around Angel Ayora and JC Ritchie, both 22/1 shots. Given that he has some hidden course form and arrives at the top of his game, which is still improving, I'm happy to take a chance at upwards of 25/1 the belief that his performances on the ADT, and in Macau last week, have been underestimated.
Enhua Liu won the China Tour event held here last May, a dry run for the rescheduled Asian Games, and his brace of 65s to sign off shows how vulnerable Hangzhou Westlake International can be. Taichi Kho, Cheung's compatriot, went on to win the Asian Games individual gold in 27-under and with rain around before the tournament begins, I suspect we'll see something close to 20-under at least.
With a driveable par-four to go at this could suit Wilco Nienaber, now right on the bubble at 22nd in the rankings, but he's been trimmed in the betting and we just don't have the same kind of evidence as a week ago. In Hainan, I felt sure longer drivers would thrive and that generally seemed to be the case, with Lindell guilty of letting a golden opportunity slip and the likes of Nienaber and Niklas Lemke up there for most of the week.
Here I feel less sure and I doubt there's much to learn from the fact that the course is designed by Jack Nicklaus, either. It would be disingenuous to try to draw parallels with say St Mellion in Cornwall, Mount Juliet in Ireland, or Tseleevo and Skolkovo in Russia. I don't know how much Lee Slattery and Dave Horsey remember about finishing first and third at the latter, but doubt that their memories will be brought back into focus by this altogether different golf course.
Pierre Pineau's second-round 68 after an opening 80 last week could be enough to get him back on track and the enigmatic Frenchman was considered at 45/1, bigger than he has been for virtually all of the season, while Jonathan Caldwell's improved top-20 was also noted. He turned 40 this summer and the DP World Tour winner has a bit about him, albeit I would think his lack of pop from the tee might be a handicap around here.
Jan Schneider finished alongside him and the young German is clearly improving while Alex Levy could be worth another chance given his record in China, but the only other appealing play here is ZHENGKAI BAI, better known as Bobby.
He won the co-sanctioned 2019 Hainan Open in the style of a potential star and while things haven't gone to plan since, he has a couple of top-10s on the China Tour this year and looks to be improving again. They include his penultimate start, after which he was sixth at halfway before fading to 21st.
Much more is needed but he was 13th on his debut at this course last year when out of sorts and that's just enough to suggest a small bet at 200/1 and bigger, knowing that his ceiling is provably higher than most of the local players. The fact that he's a long driver gives us a bit of an X factor, too, although last week's performance at Korn Ferry Tour Q-School is a negative*.
In summary, this might be all about the next superstar in Wenyi Ding, and if not him my vote would go to Wilco Nienaber. But there's not enough to go on to be advising either of those and we'll keep most of the powder dry for the Grand Final in Mallorca.
*Bai's Korn Ferry Tour performance was overlook in initial analysis with this note added 1hr post-publication, an oversight on my part. Sincere apologies.
Posted at 1715 BST on 15/10/24
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