Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Genesis Scottish Open preview and best bets
Tommy Fleetwood can avenge for his 2020 play-off defeat by capturing the Scottish Open says Ben Coley, who also has five outsiders in his staking plan.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Scottish Open
1.5pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 50/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Min Woo Lee at 150/1 (Betfred, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 300/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
0.5pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 500/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Sebastian Soderberg at 500/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sometimes you wonder what fans of top-class golf want, and the Genesis Scottish Open is a case in point. For years, critics have bemoaned the fact that the world's best players, in particular those from the United States, have been reluctant to play worldwide. Now that they're here as a consequence of the alliance between the sport's two biggest men's golf tours, we're told it's not right that some lower-ranked Europeans can't get in the field.
Short of a 250-man, multi-course tournament I'm not sure I see a solution, so whatever DP World Tour officials do, someone will suffer. If that's players who, in a meritocratic sport, have not performed well enough to earn what are limited places in the field, so be it. Rather them than the fans, who now get to witness one of the very strongest fields of the year in the country where it all began – the perfect aperitif ahead of next week's far more significant Open Championship.
That's not to diminish the Scottish Open, a wonderful event in its own right, but we should remember what happened last year. As Min Woo Lee won an evening play-off against Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry on the day England lost the Euro 2020 final, Collin Morikawa worried less about finishing alongside Italy's Francesco Laporta in a lowly share of 71st, and more about making the necessary changes to his equipment in order to be ready for the following week. Then he won on his debut in the Open.
Elite players usually win when elite fields assemble through sheer weight of numbers. Something similar could well happen again. But while The Renaissance may not quite (!) be an imitation of the Old Course, we are on links turf so unlike the Canadian Open, where Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Tony Finau produced a thrilling battle, this event cannot be viewed on its own. There's a bigger picture here, and at least a chance that certain players are focused on that rather than winning this title.
Ultimately, if a golf punter is asked to draw up a world-class tournament in which there might be scope for some kind of upset, of the handful of elements they'd surely choose, several are at play. We have a major next week, we have a lot of players who are new to this course, we're playing a form of links golf, and we're by the sea in Scotland. It's just a shame that the strong winds forecast for Wednesday are currently set to die down by tee-off.
Despite that, as you'll have seen from the staking plan, I want to roll the dice here but we'll start with a confident selection at the prices, TOMMY FLEETWOOD.
Runner-up to Aaron Rai in the 2020 renewal, one he ought to have won, Fleetwood played nicely again last year and in the process showcased that there are few as good as he is around these greens.
His links record of course includes second place in the Open Championship three years ago plus any number of low rounds in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, another tournament here in Scotland he'll feel he should've captured by now having so often gone close.
Fleetwood's first DP World Tour victory did of course come in Perthshire after he triumphed in the final tour event played at Gleneagles and it's clearly both a part of the world and a kind of golf which brings out his best – hence bookmakers pricing him defensively for the Open next week, where he looks a potential winner.
Last time we saw Fleetwood on this circuit he defied a bad start to finish 10th in Germany, just a couple of weeks after he'd again finished with a flourish for fifth place at the US PGA, and I wouldn't be alarmed that a cold putter caused him to miss the cut in the US Open. That club has generally been a strength and it was back firing when he started well at the Travelers before a quiet weekend.
More worrying is how he drove the ball there and it's clear that his absence from the very top table over the last two years can be explained by a general downturn off the tee. That said, he's been getting there slowly and prior to the Travelers had gained strokes from tee-to-green in every start dating back to the first week in March, including at Augusta where strong driving provided the foundations for a share of 14th place.
If he can get that club working then everything else is certainly in the sort of shape required to capitalise, and given both his form here and his performance on links land in general, he looks the most likely candidate if we're to get the world's best players beaten.
French fancy at a massive price
Ryan Fox is now alongside Fleetwood in the betting which is understandable given his consistent excellence this year. More of the same and the bits and pieces of 100/1 that remain for the Open next week will go, although bear in mind we're currently getting a maximum six places when double that are expected at some stage.
Fox isn't the only DP World Tour player capable of beating the raiding party from the PGA Tour, however, and the gap between him and VICTOR PEREZ in the market looks much too wide.
Perez of course beat Fox in the Dutch Open, at a course designed by Kyle Phillips and reminiscent in many ways of links courses including Kingsbarns, another Phillips design which hosts one round of the Dunhill Links.
It was in that event three years ago that Perez made his name, winning a huge pot in what was his rookie year, and but for the Covid pandemic it might've been the springboard towards a Ryder Cup place. In the end he was a little unfortunate and while frustrating to see him win in the Netherlands having selected him for his previous two starts, it was hard to begrudge the affable Frenchman.
Back to the Dunhill Links, and we learned during that event that Perez lived with his girlfriend in Dundee, so he was especially keen to play so close to home in Scotland. That's something he's done in this event, too, shooting 10 round in the sixties from 12 but paying the price for a Sunday 75 last July, which saw him tumble from eighth down to 59th.
Nevertheless, he's made clear that this is another suitable course for him, his approach play of the very highest standards that week, and now returns with his game in much better shape. Not only did he beat Fox in the Dutch Open but he produced more exceptional tee-to-green play when third a week later, with subsequent appearances in the US Open (MC) and in Germany (T53) actually confirming his long-game to be ticking over nicely.
Less certain is the state of his short-game. It had been a big problem until everything clicked in the Netherlands, but the putter cost him a quick-fire double the following week as it did something better in the BMW International Open last time. The hope is that having produced the goods on these greens in all three visits he's able to do so again, although his Dunhill Links win demonstrates that so good can be his long-game, he can contend with an average short-game on the right set of courses.
As for competing with the likes of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler and the rest, Perez has twice finished second to Tyrrell Hatton in Rolex Series events, he's been a semi-finalist in the World Match Play, and last year climbed all the way from the cut line to ninth place in The PLAYERS Championship. He goes about things with a quiet self-assurance, and beating the form player on the DP World Tour in the way he did will surely help when next he's in the mix.
Another reason for liking the prospects of the above selections is their form at correlating courses. To my eye, the Dom Pedro in Portugal and Doha GC in Qatar stand out not only because they're both exposed and tend to suit those with links form, but because we've some very strong leaderboard ties and from players who don't often pop up on them.
Examples include Nino Bertasio (fifth Portugal, fourth here), Johannes Veerman (eighth Portugal, eighth here), Benjamin Hebert (10th Portugal, 10th Doha, runner-up here), Marcus Kinhult (sixth here, third Doha, fourth Portugal), George Coetzee (ninth here, first Portugal, second Doha), Marc Warren (second Doha, second Portugal, fourth here) and there are many more, including defending champion Min Woo Lee, Fleetwood, and Perez.
Perhaps then MATTHEW JORDAN can be the latest to underline these ties while confirming himself to be particularly comfortable by the sea.
Born near to Fleetwood, Jordan was a quality amateur (won St Andrews Trophy and Lytham Trophy, latter by nine shots) when he played the British Masters close to home at Hillside in 2018, taking the first-round lead on a leaderboard packed with winners of the Dunhill Links or Qatar Masters.
He's since established himself at this level and among his best efforts are fifth in the Dunhill Links, fifth in Qatar and fifth in Portugal, which helps explain why he made such a strong debut at The Renaissance last year, finishing 18th in a field which while a little weaker, still included Rahm, Scheffler and Thomas.
It must be said that he arrived here with his game having clicked but maybe that's the case again, because after a quiet spell he qualified for the Open with two good rounds at St Annes, before finishing 24th in Ireland. Jordan's effort at Mount Juliet might be better than it looks, too, as he only just made the cut having perhaps been underprepared owing to his late arrival at the course and was six-under for the weekend.
Hopefully then he can produce a similar display and in terms of finding improvement, it's notable he drove the ball poorly here last year. That's usually a real strength of his game whereas his iron play can let him down, but they've been good at the Dunhill Links, were good here last year, and were excellent in the aforementioned Dutch Open, all more relevant than a couple of parkland tests since then.
It's a big ask to win your first DP World Tour event in this but Detry was unfortunate not to and at 250/1 and upwards, Jordan might at least threaten the places.
Detry is alongside Perez in the betting and somewhat tempting, for all that his long-game was poor at Mount Juliet. There have certainly been signs of better lately and he did almost nothing wrong when losing a play-off for this, an untimely weather suspension arguably costing him what would've been an overdue breakthrough.
Wyndham Clark is in some ways a US version of Jordan and it struck me that he declared his love of links golf when qualifying for the Open. That was in Canada, where he finished seventh in an event dominated by world-class players, and there were more positives at the Travelers from a capable maiden with form in the wind at the Honda Classic and in Bermuda.
He's just one on a long list of tempting outsiders which also includes Antoine Rozner who, like compatriot Perez, has played some high-class golf in the US and is comfortable in a breeze. Rozner's iron play was exceptional for two of the four rounds in Ireland and with three top-25s in his last four, I'd expect to see him going very close at some stage during this summer run.
Swedes can outrun their odds
Links form though remains my focus and it leads to JOAKIM LAGERGREN at an enormous price.
Everything about his form book tells you this is Lagergren's kind of golf and while clearly he has a class divide to bridge, links turf can be a real leveller. That's why he's managed no fewer than four top-five finishes in the Dunhill Links which, don't forget, is a lucrative event which always boasts a strong field.
Lagregren's one and only win so far came by the coast in Sicily, prior to which he'd lost out in a play-off for the Qatar Masters at Doha. In 2020 he finished third in the Portugal Masters alongside Fleetwood, so when it comes to those events which correspond in some way with this one, again his name appears plenty.
His form at The Renaissance so far isn't spectacular but it is improving (MC-63-35) and whereas last year he'd missed nine cuts in 12, this time he's made each of his last four having bagged a top-five finish out of nowhere in last month's European Open. Yes, he was playing well before disappointing here in 2020 but Lagergren was on the wrong side of a huge draw bias back then, so it's easily forgiven.
Then we come to the state of his game beyond the fact he's been making weekends, and that's where the real encouragement lies. Four starts in a row now, this erratic character has produced the goods with his irons, ranking ninth last week, and while his driving was poor even that club has been good for most of spring, which has not often been the case.
Certainly, it's logical to suggest that the extra space and variety in club selection that links golf often provides explains why he seems to relish it so much. And while poor putting has kept him down the leaderboard over the last fortnight, that won't last: Lagergren is one of the best in Europe in that department and has putted well here on his last couple of visits.
Fellow Swede SEBASTIAN SODERBERG is another who appeals at enormous odds, one whose form is also prone to wild swings but can be high-class at times.
This season he's been unlucky not to win the British Masters and also finished fifth in the Netherlands, on a course which should provide a decent guide, while last year he was runner-up in back-to-back events including when in the mix with Min Woo Lee and Matt Fitzpatrick at Valderrama.
Seventh on his Portugal Masters debut and 20th on one of just two starts at Doha, again he has some correlating results and he's also produced plenty of his best stuff in the UK, as so many Scandinavians have done down the years. Ninth at the Scottish Championship gives us some links form, and he's been 10th and fifth from just two starts in Wales.
The best iron player in the field last week, Soderberg could be dangerous if his in-and-out putting comes back around and, as demonstrated in the Dutch Open, a bit more space off the tee will certainly help. He's not really done it here yet, it must be said, but did open with rounds of 67 on both previous visits to show he can score at the course.
Yes, it is difficult to envisage him going toe-to-toe with Rahm, Scheffler or Thomas and coming out on top, but remember this is a player who won a five-way play-off for the European Masters back in 2019. Among his victims? Rory McIlroy. At the very least there's a good chance he outperforms these odds.
Case for the defence
Back towards the top of the betting, this looks a good opportunity to play the consistent but frustrating Corey Conners, who I'm begrudgingly leaving out of the staking plan but mentioning here for those who think the idea of backing players like Lagergren is a little silly.
It's only a month since Conners was a well-supported 20/1 shot for the Canadian Open, where he played well, and his ball-striking in the US Open was of similarly high standards despite missing the cut. He was a 50/1 chance there and while this is obviously a very strong field, it's much more winnable and he's probably entitled to a little more respect.
Conners missed the cut here last year, but his Friday 65 was bettered only by Scheffler and saw him miss the cut by a single shot. From there, he carded rounds of 68, 68 and 66 to lie fourth with a round to go at Royal St George's the following week, so we've got some links form of the highest calibre, and it won't surprise me if he's in the mix.
However, I'll finish off with the defending champion, MIN WOO LEE, despite the fact it's been a generally quiet year for the hugely talented Australian.
He's going to need to do better than last week's mid-pack finish in Ireland but 27th in the US Open, where he showed flashes of good iron play, was much more like it. And it's not all that long ago he was among the best debutants at Augusta, eventually finishing 14th.
Though helped by what happened to Detry, there's no denying his brilliance over the weekend of last year's Scottish Open – he was 13-under, the best golf in the field, before a fabulous birdie in the play-off sealed the biggest win of his career.
In some ways it was out of the blue, because he was ranked 240th in the world, but in others it wasn't, because Lee has all those form pointers discussed and had caught the eye at The Renaissance in 2020. He's been eighth in Portugal, he's won by the coast back home in Australia, and before he was even a DP World Tour member he climbed from 75th after round one to sixth after round three with rounds of 66 and 67 in Doha.
Lee is a big-hitter with excellent touch around the greens and it's only his approach play which holds him back. That's where he'll need to improve but links golf is very different and may allow him to, while with so many elite players in this field it's unlikely he has to deal with too much attention as the defending champion.
Ultimately, he's part of what I'd call the DP World Tour challenge, one I feel has been underestimated under these conditions. Robert MacIntyre and Richie Ramsay are others while I was even tempted by Nicolai Hojgaard, who drove the ball abysmally last week but may find he's punished less for the wild drives that come with being so powerful.
Lee doesn't have such questions to answer and I don't think we should be surprised if he puts up a strong title defence in a tournament which might just be more open than it looks.
Posted at 1730 BST on 04/07/22
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