Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Genesis Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley has six selections for the Genesis Championship, where two Korean PGA Tour stars head the betting.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Championship
2pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 25/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Calum Hill at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Gavin Green at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 100/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Ashun Wu at 125/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Hurly Long at 300/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Things change and the DP World Tour doesn't necessarily have the luxury of making decisions without worrying where the money comes from, but I won't be alone in ruing the fact that the end of the regular season will take place in Korea this week, in a tournament whose star names aren't DP World Tour members.
It would be nice were we in Portugal, where there would've been a good crowd of holidaymakers and perhaps some friends and family to congratulate or console those who do and don't earn the points they need. Instead, this tournament will definitely lack something, even if in Tom Kim and Byeong Hun An it has two high-class locals.
Jack Nicklaus Golf Club hosts for the second year running and what strikes me about last year's edition, which featured some foul weather midway through, is the fact that both the 54-hole leader and the eventual winner, Robert MacIntyre and Pablo Larrazabal, are geniuses with a wedge in hand.
Wide fairways but heavily contoured greens suggest that approach play combined with imagination when that second shot has gone astray will be important, though at almost 7,500 yards, length is probably an advantage too. Larrazbal overcame that handicap but the runner-up, Marcus Helligkilde, has plenty in the locker.
"You have quite a bit of room off the tee," said one player. "It’s really demanding into the greens as they are really undulating, slopes and tiers. It’s key that you have good approach play this week, and if you do, you can make a few birdies."
Ben An has all bases covered as he's long, he's a top-notch, in-form ball-striker, and his chipping is exceptional. Improvements with the putter have turned him into one of the very best maidens on the PGA Tour, where he came close to winning at the Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village. He also has fifth place in one start at Doha to his name and that looks like one of the best form guides you'll find on this circuit.
Unfortunately, not even Kim's presence has forced his price out to a point where I could give him the benefit of the doubt. It's almost a decade now since An won the BMW PGA Championship and when he captured that Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, he bogeyed the last but got away with it. The risk of him playing well without winning is too high to be taking single-figure odds.
Instead I'll side with GUIDO MIGLIOZZI, who has everything to play for.
Migliozzi is about 120 Race to Dubai points shy of Tom McKibbin, currently occupying the 10th and final place in the battle for PGA Tour cards, and only one of those ranked sixth to 10th is here in Korea.
That presents Migliozzi with a big opportunity and I like how he's played since winning on a similar golf course in the Netherlands back in June, his only real failure coming at Wentworth. Bar that he's been competitive for the most part, including at Paris 2024 and when 31st in the Open, and he was 18th two weeks ago in France.
Three good rounds there following a closing 64 in the Dunhill Links for a narrow missed cut suggest he's very close and while his driving is a bit of a worry, these wide fairways ought to help. With his approach play operating at similar levels to that lucrative run at the beginning of summer, his long-game is in good enough shape for this test.
Around the greens he ranks 41st and has been well above average for a couple of years now and with the putter general behaving itself lately, Wentworth again the exception, there's no reason he can't play his way to one of those PGA Tour cards. With finishes of fourth and 14th to his name in the US Open, he'll feel he can do some damage with one, too.
Migliozzi shot the joint-low round of the week in this event last spring, a 63 which nobody else got close to on Sunday, so there's plenty to like about this prolific winner with a huge career goal tantalisingly close now.
Antoine Rozner also shot 63 and is another class act in a field which seriously lacks depth, which in turn explains why Nicolai Hojgaard is half the price he was a week ago. Hojgaard is the one I fear most among the favourites and he needs a big week to make it to Abu Dhabi, while victory here would earn him the right to defend his title in the DP World Tour Championship.
Better off the tee in Andalucia, the Dane is respected but I'm heading slightly further down the market to find CALUM HILL.
There won't have been many 175/1 shots I liked as much as I did Hill for the Dunhill Links a few weeks ago but he was never at the races there after a poor start, though he was eight-under for his final two rounds to confirm that his game remains in good shape.
Since then he's been 18th in France at a course I wouldn't have down as ideal, then defied a slowish start to finish 28th in Spain, all achieved in spite of his putter. Hill is volatile on the greens, capable of leading the field as he did in Germany in June, but capable of the sort of shocker we witnessed in Scotland three weeks ago.
Eighth in scrambling this year and better around the greens lately with eight positive performances in nine, his wedge game is a strength and so is his driving, which is why it's especially encouraging to see that Hill's irons have fired lately. Not always a strength, they were electric over 18 holes at the Old Course, which he's backed up with two of his better displays since.
Hill's long-game was good in this event last year, too, but a rotten 36 holes on and around the greens saw him miss the cut. That can only help with the price, however, and I do suspect this exposed, fairly long course should suit him. The fact that his win came at another one meeting that description, also designed by Nicklaus, is certainly no bad thing, either.
At a similar price, GAVIN GREEN was somewhat harder to weigh up as there's a heck of a lot to like, yet there's no denying that he ranks towards the very bottom of the around-the-green stats on the DP World Tour.
That's a definite worry but I can't help but fall for the way he's hitting his irons right now, enough to rank second in France and then perform to a similar level in Spain last week. What's more, he was the best player in the Open de France field around the greens, so even his supposed weakness has shone very recently.
The problem over this fortnight is that he putted badly when 13th and then drove it well below his usual standards in Spain, where two reloads off the tee resulted in two big mistakes, ultimately the difference between making the cut and missing it.
There is though a lot more room here and Green has been one of the best putters on the circuit for a few years now, so whatever went wrong in France, and at Wentworth a couple of weeks before that, is likely to prove a blip.
With his irons really purring now, historically an area of weakness like so many powerhouses of his kind, Green ought to fancy his chances of bettering last year's share of 14th here. Admittedly, that came about because of his putter, but his long-game has been in far better shape this season.
Most people have something to play for this week and the Malaysian is no different, as at 74th in the Race to Dubai he needs to climb four places to make it to Abu Dhabi. Granted a better putting week, expect him to take care of business.
I mentioned Doha as a possible form pointer earlier and it does help make the case for Scott Jamieson. It's striking how similar his career form book is to that of Larrazabal, Jamieson having so often been close behind when the Spaniard has won, but their respective strike-rates are worlds apart and that remains an issue if backing the Scotsman.
Larrazabal has shown a little more lately but if anyone is to emulate his style of victory, it could just be ASHUN WU.
The Chinese is dynamite with a wedge, ranking 19th around the green this season and 25th last. Like Larrazabal, his weakness is off the tee, where he's neither long nor particularly accurate and therefore faces an uphill battle.
Everything else is more than competitive though and I like how he's played lately, shooting a second-round 65 to make the cut in France and then finishing 20th in Spain last week. All told he's made five of his last six cuts and not only was the exception in a quality field, but he missed by a shot after an improved second round.
Wu made the cut here last year when in similar form, moving into 26th with a round to play, and now returns at 113th in the Race to Dubai. With the cut-off at 114, he's clawed his way to the right side of the line and one more good week is needed to retain his playing privileges for 2025.
There's a risk he's outmuscled around this place given that the forecast for this week is much better than it was last April, but I'm willing to take it on board at three-figure prices. Wu has a bit about him, his best finish of the year came in Doha, and those supreme short-game skills could still carry him into contention even if the wind doesn't blow.
German duo worth a Schott
In general though I do want to side with longer hitters and FREDDY SCHOTT gets another go following 28th place in Spain.
Schott was cruising towards the end of round two before a costly double-bogey at a short par-four stopped him in his tracks. It was rather the story of the week and he'll have been hugely frustrated to drive it so poorly, given that he's usually excellent off the tee, while he also struggled with the putter which isn't often the case.
Instead, his approach play was just about as good as we've seen and while it might sound simplistic, if he can marry that with his usual blend of power and putting then getting the job done from 114th in the Race to Dubai won't be a problem.
It's impressive that he's gone 17-13-MC-28 over his last four starts to earn this chance to retain status he got via Qualifying School and calm conditions on a long course make it a golden one for the talented German.
Last year's missed cut is no concern at all as he arrived in shocking form yet, after a nightmare start, Friday's 68 was the sixth-best score of the day. It should've been better, too, as he closed out with a bogey at the par-five 18th to miss by one. Back him to settle the score and keep his card in the process.
Eddie Pepperell is 124th on the Race to Dubai and the sort to raise his game under the gun, while David Law has improved lately to climb to 130th. It's fair to say I had a close look at all players in this area of the standings and it was those two and former Dunhill Links champion Oli Wilson who I found most interesting.
However, I've landed on a real flier in Schott's compatriot HURLY LONG.
At 168th in the standings he needs a minor miracle and there's not much obvious to go on, but he does look to have turned a corner of late. Long narrowly missed cuts in Switzerland and at Wentworth, then finished 29th in Spain, signed off with a 68 at Carnoustie for another narrow missed cut, and matched Green's 75-69 last week.
Clearly, you have to be willing to make the odd excuse for him but my eye is drawn to the fact that his approach play has been getting better, the one area which had been a massive problem. The other is his waywardness off the tee but a wide course and calm weather helps on that score, too.
Long is excellent around the greens and he does have previous with his back against the wall, having finished second from out of the blue in last year's Irish Open. The way he stuck around in that event offers hope that he has something in him and around a course I think he'll like, 200/1 and upwards is worth taking.
Posted at 1110 BST on 22/10/24
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