Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Fortinet Championship preview and best bets
The PGA Tour season begins this week, except that it doesn't. Ben Coley tries to work out what's going on – and who might win the Fortinet Championship.
Golf betting tips: Fortinet Championship
3pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Beau Hossler at 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nick Hardy at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Austin Smotherman at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Just when you thought you were getting to grips with how a PGA Tour season works and what a FedEx Cup point is worth (the answer to which is 'way more than it should be in some events'), along comes another attempt at a rehash. The wraparound season is... well, not dead, but lacking in vital signs. There's a heart beating, but you do worry say a nefarious, nameless state could bring that to a stop with the right chemical formula.
The real PGA Tour season, I think we're meant to say, begins in January. Hooray for Pope Gregory XIII! And yet the PGA Tour season really begins now, with the Fortinet Championship, just like last year. But wait a minute: if you were in the top 50 last season (Sep 22-Aug 23), you don't get any FedEx Cup points. Just money, world ranking points and, if you win, a trophy. They're always nice.
If you weren't in the top 50, now resumes the battle to gain entry into the biggest and best events from January to whenever the TOUR Championship is next year. It's a battle taking place on two fronts: here in Napa, at a familiar course, and over on the Korn Ferry Tour, where the ruthless culling of players saw an entire dozen eliminated after the first of four Finals events, before a three-week break nobody can explain to me.
Do Fortinet by any chance specialise in computer software that can helps create a simple explanation of what the hell is going on and make that explanation easy to find on the internet? Or, in the year 2023 *winks at Pope Greg*, am I asking too much?
Jokes aside (these are jokes), the excellent Rob Bolton is on hand with a primer. He explains that this really is the FedEx Cup Fall rather than the PGA Tour season and offers a reminder that as well as qualification into some events, Tour status itself is on the line. Those who didn't make the top 50 carry their points into this stretch and at the end, anyone outside the top 125 could be preparing for Christmas by heading to a revamped Q School.
It's these lower-ranked players who are meant to be in focus and if you wanted to be unkind, you could say that remains true now that Justin Thomas is in the field. Thomas of course narrowly failed to make the Playoffs so will be awarded FedEx Cup points if earning them and can climb as high at 51st from his current perch in 71st, whereas defending champion Max Homa will remain ninth whatever happens.
Thomas will still play in some of next year's 'Signature Events' (née Designated, néenée Elevated) because sponsors retain a level of control over their field, but his focus right now is more immediate – to demonstrate that he was the right choice for the Ryder Cup, that he can still play a key role for the USA, and that the time spent on the range since early August has been worthwhile.
The good news is that while California would not typically be where he's at his most comfortable or his most effective, Thomas has always liked it at Silverado. And if you're looking for some sort of indication that playing well in the Fortinet could be a Ryder Cup springboard, he came here in 2015, 2016 and 2019, and he won on his very next start each time, all overseas.
Inflated prices might appeal to some in the circumstances but both he and Max Homa have flown in from Rome, where nine of the 12 US team members took part in what I'd say was a wholly unnecessary scouting trip. That's hardly ideal and might just be enough to get Homa beaten too, the favourite having won on four of his last seven non-major starts in his home state, including when gifted the title here last year.
Keep it simple with Sahith
SAHITH THEEGALA is priced as the man most likely to take advantage and I can't escape that conclusion myself.
Born in California, albeit a good way from here, Theegala has extensive experience of Silverado having played it a lot with a close friend who lives nearby, and it shows. So far he's broken par in 11 of his 12 rounds, including a Saturday 64 on debut.
During his second full PGA Tour season, he showed how comfortable he is playing golf under familiar conditions, adding fourth place behind Homa at the Farmers and closing with a round of 66 to take sixth place behind Jon Rahm in the Genesis, before an excellent tie for 27th across LA at the US Open.
Only in the AmEx did he fail to shine at home, that coming after he'd been 33rd of 38 in Hawaii before something clicked the following week, and he simply looks a rock-solid option in an event he's playing for a reason. At 31st in FedEx Cup points, he's already locked up starts in the big events next year and at 37th in the world, that will surely include all four majors.
Theegala is here because the course is a great fit, it's a chance to play in front of friends and family, and it's a chance to win, too.
The icing on the California cake is that he struck form in the Playoffs. By no means was summer a disaster, one bad round costing him in each of three missed cuts in succession, but he's come out of it with 13th in the St Jude and 15th in the BMW Championship, two of the strongest recent form lines you'll find in a field such as this.
Crucially, he's been driving it much better having struggled off the tee from May through to the end of June, gaining strokes now in his last five starts. A good week's putting is never far away and in ranking 11th in strokes-gained approach in Chicago, one of his major strengths showed improvement following the penal Southwind.
Silverado isn't the easiest course to profile but I've always felt strong driving is paramount, a fact Rahm mentioned when last playing here and reflected in winners like Brendan Steele, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Emiliano Grillo and Homa. It can be Theegala's weakness and it's why the consistency he's discovered could prove the missing piece of the jigsaw.
With Riviera a really handy form guide, he really does tick just about every box and I think he's fully entitled to short prices in what's a weak field, absent of a handful of bigger names who have played it in the past plus one or two course specialists no longer on the PGA Tour.
Another change to recent years is the absence of Korn Ferry Tour graduates from these events, their seasons beginning in January. That's a bit of a shame and ramps up the pressure on those newbies, who previously had some bedding-in time and could free themselves up by banking FedEx Cup points before Christmas.
It also means fields have fewer form players, considerably so, and I expect we'll see some longstanding PGA Tour maidens make the most of the opportunity. With no Patrick Rodgers in this field, BEAU HOSSLER is the best example and I really like his chances.
Without going overboard, Hossler reminds me quite a bit of Wyndham Clark. From their amateur pedigrees to their friendship and the nature of their respective games, the two shared plenty in common already – and the way Hossler has played since July is reminiscent of how Clark hit his straps last summer.
Not for a second am I expecting majors and so on to come Hossler's way, though I wouldn't dismiss that idea entirely in time. The point is that Clark had been hinting that he was ready to take the next step, which in the end came the following May, and I'm hopeful Hossler can capitalise on this opportunity at a much lower level.
Firstly, I love how he's stepped up his game off the tee. Hossler has plenty of power so good driving numbers have always been possible, but he's generally struggled to sustain them. Not so now: he's gained strokes in his last 11 measured starts and it's highly likely that would read 12, as he looked to drive it well when sixth at the Barracuda.
Last seen ranking sixth in strokes-gained off-the-tee at Southwind, a course I wouldn't have down as ideal, Hossler is as good as he's ever been in that department and that was not the case here last year, when his driver cost him a crack at the leaders. Hossler ranked 71st off the tee, the third start running he'd been outside the top 60, and was excellent in all other departments.
Something similar happened in 2021, when he putted the lights out but finished 16th owing to some shoddy ball-striking, and he said at the time that 'the problem is I've been blowing it in the trees all the time'.
Returning to a course he likes (23-16-25) with that club now purring, and with his approach work also improved, Hossler suddenly looks like he has everything needed to break his duck. The fact he has solid Riviera form also helps as does the fact he last had a good chance to win at TPC San Antonio last year, a course which through Tway, Steele, Steven Bowditch, Martin Laird and more really does seem to offer clues as to who will go well here.
Hossler first made a name for himself when contending for the 2012 US Open here in California. Still only 28, an overdue first win could well come back home, at a course he could play before he started driving it as well as he has lately. He's a strong each-way fancy.
Putting improvement points to Hardy
Justin Suh is another young Californian who catches the eye and the fact he played so well in Switzerland a fortnight ago adds to the case. That could have him sharper than some and while his course record isn't spectacular, at his best he drives the ball well. The worry has to be an eye-catching problem with his short-game and it's enough to put me off.
Doug Ghim excels off the tee and with his ball-striking in general, and a shocking putting display at the Wyndham probably has plenty to do with bermuda greens. He's significantly better on the type of grass found out here on the west coast and if he does turn in a positive display would be a danger to all given his relentless accuracy.
At the prices though I prefer NICK HARDY, who at 52nd in FedEx Cup points is the highest-ranked member of this field who can add to his tally, if that makes any sense whatsoever.
Hardy of course gained the biggest chunk of his with a pairs with in New Orleans so can count himself fortunate in some ways, but he's played quite nicely since then and is a big talent who could now kick on.
His Silverado record so far reads 36-67 but on both occasions his short-game was problematic whereas his approach work in particular suggested he has the game for this course, particularly if driving it better which we know he can having done so in 2021 and generally been good throughout his burgeoning career.
As for the putting problem, Hardy was among the most improved on the PGA Tour towards the end of last season, ranking inside the top 20 and as high as fifth across his last four measured starts. Rewind just a little further and he ranked 21st at the US Open in LA, too, so while his overall numbers on greens like these aren't all that impressive, he looks a different player these days.
It's always easy enough to forgive a bad set of approach play figures at Southwind, which magnifies missed greens, and if he can reproduce the sort of numbers he's managed so far at Silverado then the rest of his game may well fall into place.
Sam Ryder's irons are his strength and he showed as much with a strong end to the season, which earlier had seen him contend at Torrey Pines and finish third at TPC San Antonio. The latter in particular is a form line I like and with a previous top-five to his name here, he's another one of those longstanding maidens who should sense an opportunity.
His weakness is off the tee, however, and I want to stick with good drivers like TAYLOR PENDRITH, who looks overpriced.
This is a good course for the Canadian, who showed as much on debut when leading the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee. That was his PGA Tour debut as a full member and he made a good second-round move to again emphasise that he can score here, on grass you'd expect to provide a level of familiarity he wouldn't find on the east coast.
His second appearance wasn't as encouraging but a final-round 77 when out of the mix is pretty easy to overlook, given that the previous seven had all been under-par. Besides, he'd only recently been named as a surprise Presidents Cup pick and I'm not surprised that he wasn't necessarily able to focus on the task at hand in California, days before that event took place.
Free from such distractions, Pendrith has no excuses this time and I was a bit surprised to see him this far down the betting. Ultimately that reflects three missed cuts since he contended in back-to-back events, but the first was under stableford scoring, the second was by a shot, and the third came in the Wyndham, where his driving is far less of a weapon.
Here at Silverado he's shown what that club can do and he also ticks that San Antonio box, having been a staying-on second there on the Korn Ferry Tour. Pendrith has questions to answer in the mix, that much we know, but he was favourite for the Barbasol not long ago and is a better player than prices upwards of 50/1 suggest.
Drive for dough at Silverado
Ball-striking stalwarts Chez Reavie and Kevin Streelman are what they are and should interest three-ball punters but I'd be more inclined to look towards up-and-comers like Davis Thompson, ninth here on debut and in good form since the US Open.
He's one I'll be keeping a very close eye on but playing conditions count for plenty and lead me to AUSTIN SMOTHERMAN, another Californian and considered the pick of the outsiders ahead of Laird.
Smotherman has popped up on a few leaderboards close to home, notably at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach early last year and then in the Barracuda Championship, where he was close to the lead all week.
His second season didn't go to plan but it started encouragingly here at Silverado, where he was thereabouts at halfway for the second time in as many visits and then moved inside the top 10 with a round to play thanks to a third-round 67.
Across both these appearances he's hit the ball well, ranking second to Pendrith in driving on debut and improving his approach work last year, when a 10-shot turnaround on the greens saw him finish 25th despite not being at his absolute best off the tee.
Generally an excellent ball-striker, he signed off last season with his best approach play figures in months and one of his standout performances of the season in fact, finishing 27th in the Wyndham, where he'd missed the cut on debut.
Again, that course won't necessarily allow such a powerful driver to flex their muscles but this one does and, if he's able to return in the same sort of form, I'd be hopeful he can take another step forward. Certainly, he seems to be piecing things together as his short-game has got better and it seems a matter of time before he's teeing off late on Sunday.
There's no place like home to go ahead and do that and, at 125th in the FedEx Cup standings, he simply has to be ready to go and take care of business in the most suitable event left this year. He's 200/1 with one firm at the time of writing for those happy to sacrifice a couple of places, while all six major firms paying eight places make him a 150/1 chance.
Posted at 1400 BST on 12/09/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.