Ben Coley's golf betting tips: FedEx Cup TOUR Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley looks ahead to the final event of the PGA Tour season, where Scottie Scheffler may be given most to think about by course specialist Rory McIlroy.
Golf betting tips: TOUR Championship
5pts e.w. Rory McIlroy to shoot the lowest 72-hole score at 8/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
2pts Scheffler-McIlroy dual forecast in the FedEx Cup market at 20/1 (bet365)
There's been much debate over the last fortnight and indeed throughout much of the year as to exactly what makes for exciting golf. Big names seems a popular ingredient, and whenever a leaderboard lacks them, you'll find concerns about that. Good golf courses is a demand which by nature is harder to define, and it can be argued that the link between quality of course and quality of finish is tenuous at best (see: the FedEx Cup Playoffs so far). Some maintain that the size of the purse is particularly significant, whereas there's less debate as to the importance of prestige.
Ultimately, we are talking about an unpredictable sport where pretty much anything can happen and where perfect isn't meant to exist. Take the Open, for example. This year brought us high drama between some of the biggest names covering almost all corners of the globe, with Tiger Woods' emotional walk down the 18th on Friday thrown in for good measure. Still, some felt the Old Course was too easy. When it was more difficult, in 2010, no doubt the runaway nature of Louis Oosthuizen's win left some feeling short-changed. It really is a strange and difficult world at times.
By now you may be wondering how this relates to the TOUR Championship, where the FedEx Cup shall be decided. Fair question. I suppose what I'm getting towards is that we never know what a tournament will produce, but our best chance of something memorable depends on certain fundamentals. History and prestige are here, at East Lake, an old and storied golf course in Georgia. Money? There's plenty of that. Professional pride, too – whoever does win this title will in some way be worthy of it, and will be a strong candidate to be named Player of the Year. Many of the best players in golf make up the 30-man field.
But there is one way that the PGA Tour has compromised the likelihood of excitement, and that's with the introduction of a handicap scoring system which means the world number one gets a two-shot head-start, and that half of the field are almost certainly out of the tournament before it has started. Introduced in 2019, it has so far robbed us of real Sunday drama in two of the three subsequent renewals, and I don't recall feeling a particular sense of jeopardy even last year, when Patrick Cantlay ultimately won by a single shot from Jon Rahm, the only two players who had a realistic chance throughout the week.
That's the price they've paid, and it's not quite for nothing. There can be absolutely no doubt that the TOUR Championship is easier to follow, and a winner-takes-all conclusion makes some degree of sense. Sometimes, though, I wonder if professional golf and those in charge of it spend too much time trying to soften its idiosyncrasies rather than celebrating what makes it special. And in terms of this tournament specifically, I wonder whether the scoring system really has helped to attract a new audience which was hitherto alienated by the complexities of an undeniably hard-to-follow points system.
Those flaws were exposed again on Sunday, when Sky Sports were unable to tell us what significance, if any, was attached to Xander Schauffele's birdie putt on the final hole of the BMW Championship. When he missed, one commentator said 'we'll never know' what would've happened had it gone in, when in fact we actually knew moments later thanks to Justin Ray, who revealed that had Schauffele holed his putt, his friend Cantlay would've had the head-start here at East Lake which instead goes to Scottie Scheffler.
From the outset, failures in the FedEx Cup can largely be called failures in communication, and by switching to this system my belief is that we're pandering to those unwilling or unable to interpret two things at once.
Not that such a view determines my staking plan, which again avoids the FedEx Cup-TOUR Championship winner market. It's just that either Scheffler or Cantlay ought to win, and I strongly suspect it'll be the former, who was below his best and still could've landed the BMW Championship last week. A brilliant debut effort at East Lake two years ago marks him down as an ideal course fit, which he should be as one of the best drivers in the sport, and there's a strong sense that the undoubted player of the year is coming to the boil in time to end his breakthrough season in fitting fashion.
Does 5/2 underestimate the likelihood of Scheffler doing what I think he'll do? Probably, just a shade. But these previews aren't really designed to live in the margins and despite the evidence of the above seven paragraphs and last week's ode to Campbell and Algar, they're written for the reader. My impression is that the vast majority of the audience would prefer to head to the low-72 betting, where RORY MCILROY is a worthy favourite and gets the confident vote.
McIlroy isn't out of the FedEx Cup running by any means. In fact, he's fourth in the betting at 12/1, and having won comfortably when starting five back in 2019, he'll know that he can catch Scheffler despite giving him six. I would though be staggered if he can win the TOUR Championship without shooting the lowest score in this field, and the price discrepancy isn't wide enough to justify backing him to capture it all for a third time.
Best, I believe, is to focus on his credentials when it comes to playing the best golf this week, and they're very strong. He's won this tournament twice, both before and after the implementation of this system, and only one player got within five of him in 2019. Things had been altogether closer when he stole the FedEx Cup from Dustin Johnson three years earlier, but again McIlroy's prodigious driving proved key to taking apart this tricky par 70 upon which the very best drivers in the sport have thrived.
Even Woods, when winning here in 2018, relied more on what he did off the tee than his trademark approach play, and three of the last seven players to have topped the 72-hole scoring at East Lake ranked first in strokes-gained off-the-tee for the week. McIlroy led that category here for three appearances in succession and, after blowing away the cobwebs at Southwind two weeks ago, he was back driving the ball supremely well at Wilmington, where he hung around close to the lead without quite getting into the mix during a week where he had plenty going on off the course.
First in strokes-gained total and in DataGolf's world rankings, there's no doubt he's up there close to Scheffler in terms of 2022 performances for all that the latter has been far more prolific, and for my money they ought to be the top two in the 72-hole betting with Jon Rahm just behind. The trouble with backing Scheffler, though, is that FedEx Cup leaders are yet to produce the best golf in the final event since the implementation of a play-offs system, and that's just enough to lean towards McIlroy on this occasion.
It's also worth noting that while his last two performances here have been lacking, McIlroy had excuses. In 2020 he described himself as 'emotionally drained' having welcomed the arrival of his daughter on the eve of the tournament, and in 2021 he'd been so quiet for the most part that his place at East Lake was in doubt heading to the BMW Championship, largely because his approach play had been poor. As it turned out and to my dismay, his performance at Caves Valley didn't represent the turning point and he continued to struggle with his irons for a while after.
This time around he arrives in Georgia having taken big steps forward in that department, gaining strokes with his approach play in every start from Augusta onwards. His work around the greens has been excellent lately, and while he's putted poorly over the last fortnight, a return to these familiar greens is a positive – he's putted far better here than he has at Southwind, and I can excuse a poor effort on heavily sloped, extremely fast surfaces of last week's BMW Championship where again, he had some distractions to deal with.
With Cam Smith and Will Zalatoris both to prove their fitness, Scheffler starting the week with a target on his back, Justin Thomas seemingly out of sorts and a couple of notable absentees versus last year's field, McIlroy looks to have a golden opportunity to go out there and attack as he loves to do. It may be that he finds himself in the mix for the main prize if everything goes to plan, but at a course he loves he's certainly the one to beat in the 72-hole market and rates a bet at the odds.
My concern with Rahm, who was 14-under for the final 45 holes last week, is that he'd not quite produced his best golf here prior to last season, the one in which he won the US Open and was undeniably the best player in the world. Now down to sixth in the rankings, I do believe he's better than that and there are signs his putting has turned a corner, but he leaned on his short-game when tied in 72-hole scoring with Kevin Na and still has a few questions to answer at East Lake.
Course specialist Xander Schauffele will do for many but at twice the price, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa made more appeal. The latter seemed far happier with his long-game, as he should according to the stats, during the first three rounds of the BMW Championship. Sunday's gobsmacking 10 not only undermined all the good work but hid it, too, and he'll be determined to end a frustrating season on a high. To a greater extent than Rahm, though, he's got course questions to answer, and his record in the Playoffs is very poor.
Hovland's stats from last week are misleading in a different way, as his final-round ace massaged some poor ball-striking figures. Still, he's shown an immediate liking for East Lake, in a similar way to Schauffele, and it's a very good course for him if everything has clicked. Sunday's round offers encouragement in that regard and he's finished 14th and fourth here despite being among the worst putters on both visits. That department has been strong for most of summer, and had I taken a second selection it would've been the Norwegian.
Others on the shortlist include Sahith Theegala, who has finished 13th and 15th in his first two FedEx Cup Playoff events and was obviously delighted to qualify for this, earning his Masters debut in the process. Theegala has shown a liking for classical, tree-lined courses throughout the season and if he can get his driver working as it did at Southwind, his dynamite short-game might carry him far as it did for Rahm a year ago. At 80/1, that's a chance some may be inclined to take.
Another factor potentially in his favour is that Theegala needs a huge week if he's to have any chance whatsoever of earning a Presidents Cup wild card pick. That will also be on the mind of East Lake specialist Billy Horschel, but he's surely going to get the nod regardless as the US team appears to just about pick itself, while all Internationals in this field have qualified with the exception of KH Lee, who must be long odds-on to make captain Trevor Immelman's team.
We therefore have a tournament lacking in sub-plots, and if Scheffler gets off to a strong start then it may be lacking in drama, too. He'll be awfully hard to catch so I'm inclined to back him and McIlroy in the dual-forecast market, with hopes high that McIlroy can do as he did here in 2019.
Back then he'd suffered one of the biggest disappointments of his career when missing the cut in the Open at Portrush. Three years on and with the heartache of St Andrews no doubt still there, history might well repeat itself to some degree – even if Scheffler does collect the main prize.
Posted at 1130 BST on 23/08/22, prior to the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris
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