Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open preview and best bets
Jon Rahm returns to the scene of his US Open triumph for the Farmers Insurance Open, where our golf expert Ben Coley has tips from 30/1 to 250s.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open
2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 30/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Scottie Scheffler at 30/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Marc Leishman at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matthew Wolff at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 100/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Dylan Frittelli at 250/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Please note: Tournament begins on Wednesday
Among the myriad factors which led Jon Rahm to his first major championship last summer was the frustration he felt at being denied victory in the Memorial Tournament a fortnight earlier. The Spaniard's response to that setback was one of a confident and content golfer who knew that at Torrey Pines, scene of his spectacular PGA Tour breakthrough in 2017, he would have the chance to put things right.
It took mistakes from all his closest pursuers, with Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa all making back-nine double-bogeys, and Bryson adding a quadruple for good measure. It took favours too from Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka, both stumbling later on. But it was Rahm's genius, his sense of timing, which ultimately ended the argument. It's something we've seen from him since that hole-out eagle to capture this title.
Timing really can be everything, and as the season begins to unwind, Rahm returns to his favourite course after a frustrating week in The American Express, where he failed to capitalise on a strong start. As his frustrations grew, Rahm was caught on camera criticising an easy set-up which made for what he termed 'a putting contest'. Setting aside the fact he had no such complaints when winning there himself, it stands to reason he'll be glad things get tougher here.
Considerably tougher. Despite getting one round on the tame North Course, 54 holes at the notorious South make this an intense early-season test of execution. Only one player made double-digits under-par last year, although he had help from himself in doing so. Things were just a little easier in 2020 and easier still in 2019, but this is no shootout, and it's certainly no putting contest.
Key to the South Course is usually experience, disruptors like Rahm aside, and power is certainly a major weapon, too. Those who've got by without it are adept at doing so, like Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman and Brandt Snedeker. Generally speaking, they've been pursued by some of the longest hitters on the circuit, and those like Keegan Bradley who send their balls into orbit and can drop them down softly onto these small, tricky greens.
Above all else this is a hard place to get off the mark, Rahm once more the outlier, and it's a hard place to come if you're still learning on the job. It's that which puts me off players like Maverick McNealy and Mito Pereira, and it's hard to see course specialist Luke List finally forcing open the door given the questions he'd have to answer on Sunday in order to do so.
Who is the best bet on the PGA Tour this week?
It's very easy to circle back round to Rahm and stop mucking about, but there are a couple of small worries. First of all it can be difficult to return to the scene of your finest hour and do it all again. Second of all, Netflix producers are on-site beginning work on the Drive to Survive equivalent, which for the record should be called Drive to Survive II. Rahm isn't listed as one of the collaborators and it may be that he benefits from others having something new to deal with, but how intrusive it all is goes down as an unwelcome unknown.
TONY FINAU is expected to take part and we'll see if he's affected at all, but in his case I actually believe there's quite a lot of room for manoeuvre at 28 and 30/1 and with eight places on offer, he looks a smashing each-way bet.
Finau might've disappointed here behind Rahm in the US Open, but his Farmers record is exemplary. He's played in this tournament seven times, and his worst finish is 24th place on debut. Since then he's hit the frame in four of his six appearances, confirming that Torrey Pines is a perfect fit.
"Yeah, the South sets up nicely for me with my length," he said a couple of years ago. "I think length is a big advantage on the South specifically, so I've been able to put some good rounds together there. You know, it looks pretty good to me. A lot of the holes you can hit a fade and I'm a fader of the ball, I like hitting the fade off the tee."
That comment around shot-shape is echoed by Gary Woodland, another with an excellent track record here, and might also help explain why Rahm has been comfortable from day one. Whatever the truth of it, Finau is second to the Spaniard in scoring average, with a host of Torrey Pines winners stacked up in behind, and this is certainly a tournament he should have eyes on winning.
His preparation involved a welcome step forward with the putter last week, finishing 40th in the AmEx but 13th in scoring at the host course. Finau played his final two rounds there so improved nicely as the week went on, and having been ill-suited by a soft Kapalua shootout to start the year, this rates his best chance so far.
Given that he was 22-25/1 for the US Open, bigger odds in this weaker field and with a round at the North Course thrown in are hard to ignore. He has after all won since and while I wouldn't tend to focus on trophies generally, when you're the man about whom the song 'When will Tony Finau win again?' has been written, winning carries particular importance. That he did so at the tough Liberty National, a course where defending champion Reed has also triumphed, underscores much of the case.
Indeed Finau is about as obvious an each-way bet as they come, yet I don't think the price reflects his chance. Around this place, with Dustin Johnson back from a long break and Bryson DeChambeau with plenty to prove currently, and with Hideki Matsuyama having relied on a hot putter in the Sony Open, I see him as the biggest danger to the big three.
That trio is completed by Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele, and it's the latter who appeals most of the two. Thomas played well enough here in his rookie season but relied on his putter both then and during last summer's US Open, when he wasn't a factor. He's generally struggled a little out on the west coast and despite some electric play over the final three rounds at Kapalua, it may be best to wait for the anticipated spring fireworks.
Schauffele though has every chance, having shaken off the hoodoo when runner-up to Reed, and then tied for seventh in the US Open. This is his hometown event, he shed the rust nicely in Hawaii, and he knows this could be his best chance for a while as he'll be flying to Saudi Arabia, straight back to Phoenix, and could be running on empty by the time Riviera comes around.
He would've made the staking plan at 20/1 but at twice that price I'll side with MARC LEISHMAN, who continued his resurgence with a solid effort at the Sony Open last time.
Leishman was all-the-rage there, but on the basis of one unspectacular performance is now twice the price. That reflects the strength of field to a large degree, but he was right up alongside Matsuyama, who is now half the price because he won that tournament and Leishman did not.
I'll gladly take the Matsuyama putting heroics and run but he wasn't at his brilliant best from tee-to-green in Hawaii. Ultimately, at the course where Leishman was a brilliant winner two years ago, he ought to be closer to Matsuyama in the market and the same is true versus the likes of Sungjae Im and Sam Burns, for all I admire both greatly.
Not only has the Aussie won here, but he was runner-up in 2010 and 2014, finished ninth in 2011, eighth in 2018, 20th when not taking advantage of the North Course in 2017, and put up a solid title defence last year when 18th.
It's a rock-solid book of form at one of his favourite courses, and the idea that he follows in Cameron Smith just as he did back then still holds plenty of appeal. As for why he likes it at Torrey Pines, Leishman has long been a good putter on poa annua, the kikuyugrass you'll also find here and at Riviera is common back home, and the fact that everyone plays their share of approaches from the rough certainly helps this occasionally wayward driver.
Leishman is a big-time performer whose form has improved dramatically this season, so with 40/1 available and anything down to 33s considered very much acceptable, he looks worth backing at a course where Rahm, Snedeker, Jason Day, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have all won multiple times this century. Even the surprise name Scott Stallings was a putt away from doubling up.
Of the other big names at less than 50/1, Will Zalatoris looks a likely candidate but short enough given he was 45/1 for the US Open here, has fallen in the rankings since, and that T6 last week was built on one sensational round which saw him seemingly make every putt he looked at.
I would rather chance Brooks Koepka, who contended in the US Open and has a sneakily-good record at the South Course, but I keep coming back to SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and he's preferred.
Scheffler is obviously at the top of everyone's list in terms of potential breakthrough winners this year and after finishing seventh here in the US Open, perhaps Torrey Pines is a good fit. He started slowly in that event to lie 41st after round one, but shot 69-70 to climb to 10th and then sixth, before seeing it through on a difficult Sunday.
It's not usually the place you'd expect someone to get off the mark, but Scheffler is no ordinary maiden, having played in last year's Ryder Cup and contended in a couple of majors, as well as reaching the final of the WGC Match Play. And while perhaps best known among casual fans for his 59 at TPC Boston, increasingly it looks likely that his breakthrough could come under a far more challenging set of circumstances.
Like Finau, this top-class driver got better as the tournament went on in the AmEx, where he said he tends not to be at his best on his first start of the year. Last year he missed the cut there to add weight to that theory and while he did also fail to make the weekend here, the fact he shot an opening 65 on the North Course, when combined with his US Open effort, means he's shown that he can score across both.
Scheffler went on to finish seventh on his next appearance and after 25th place in the AmEx, he can get right back into the sort of form which saw him produce three top-five finishes in his previous four starts, and of course down Rahm in their Ryder Cup singles match. I'll just keep a lid on the stake owing to a nagging doubt about poa annua greens, though he putted well here last summer.
Who are the best outsiders?
At bigger prices, Joseph Bramlett was at the top of my list of outsiders but after another strong ball-striking week in the desert, he opened up shorter than hoped and has been trimmed since. Bramlett is clearly full of confidence after his win at Korn Ferry Tour Finals, however, and is one to keep an eye on given his length, the fact this is a home game, and a definite fondness for Torrey Pines.
For a genuine flier, however, I'll take DYLAN FRITTELLI, who ticks quite a lot of boxes and has some hidden course form having won a junior event here back in 2007.
That of course isn't worth a lot, but Andrew Buckle won it in 1999 and the one time he got to play Torrey Pines as a professional, he finished fourth. Day won it, Woods and Mickelson both won it, and more recently the likes of Wyndham Clark, Adam Svensson and Beau Hossler have built on positive experiences as amateurs to play really well in this event.
Bramlett by the way was runner-up to Frittelli but it's the proven PGA Tour winner I would rather chance, largely because over the last two years he's added two things to his game: distance, and an ability to step up and perform under difficult conditions in world-class fields.
Frittelli climbed from way down the list of longest drivers on the PGA Tour to rank 18th last season, and it has helped him to top-five finishes in the Masters and the Open Championship. Last summer, he missed seven cuts in nine starts during a miserable run, but the exceptions were when making the weekend here, and when contending at Royal St George's.
He has progressed throughout each of his four starts across this event and the aforementioned US Open, and in general he's played the South Course well. Indeed on his debut he beat the field average at the South by well over a stroke, but missed the weekend because he'd failed to score at the North – where he's subsequently shown he can do that with a round of 66.
Frittelli misses a lot of cuts but he started to play better towards the end of last year, and there's reason to believe this will suit far better than the AmEx, where his approach play was very good for the sole measured round. In an event where there's always been room for a big-hitting outsider to snag a place, he'll do for me.
Cameron Champ could also step up on his return last week and is interesting. Third through 54 holes here in 2020 and a major contender in California thereafter, this three-time PGA Tour winner is hard to pin down but has rewarded followers at big prices and is the sort of player you could see holding firm against world-class opposition come the back-nine on Sunday.
Can Davis do it again?
However there is a little more substance to the form of namesake CAM DAVIS right now and I'll take the Australian to repeat his heroics of last summer, when a 150/1 winner on these pages.
Another big hitter, Davis has dialled in his driver again recently and it helped him to an excellent 10th place on his debut in the Tournament of Champions, before a rock-solid 27th at the Sony Open where that power of his can only get you so far.
Here, and particularly at the South Course, it's a big weapon and one which helped him lead the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green in last year's edition, eventually settling for 32nd place having given the best part of six strokes away with the putter.
Right now that club appears much more reliable and he's subsequently won his first PGA Tour title on the poa annua greens of Detroit Golf Club, where big-hitting is a big advantage too despite the shorter set-up.
It took Davis a little while to adjust to his newfound status but he's laid the foundations for a big year and, having won the Australian Open early on in his professional career and then collected titles at Korn Ferry and now PGA Tour level, he has plenty about him. This is a good course for another roll of the nice where he's concerned.
Wolff worth a wager
Finally and after some deliberation I'll chance MATTHEW WOLFF, who was terrible on his return to action last Thursday but played better thereafter and is a big price given his form here.
Wolff was 21st on his debut in this event, shooting weekend rounds of 71-69 at the South Course, and after withdrawing during a difficult period last January, returned in June to finish 15th in the US Open. That was a mammoth effort in the circumstances as the youngster had taken time off following the Masters, prior to which he'd been in terrible form.
Come the end of 2021 he was back to the player we all had such high hopes for with finishes of 17-2-5-11, including when contending on a tough course in Houston, and I can forgive him a quiet comeback after two months away. Wolff's sole win to date came after a couple of missed cuts, as did his near-miss in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he's been a factor in three majors already.
A supremely gifted athlete who hits the ball a long way, Wolff is a good fit for Torrey Pines and this time last year was a 33/1 shot to win the US Open there. At twice that purely on the basis of a quiet comeback, he's got to be worth a go in these calmer waters.
Posted at 2140 GMT on 24/01/22
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