Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic preview and best bets
Rory McIlroy bids to win the Dubai Desert Classic for a fourth time, but is he worth backing after Sunday's near-miss? Ben Coley previews the event.
Golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic
2pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 80/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 150/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Every great player has golf courses where they're particularly comfortable, and where beating them is particularly hard. Tiger Woods had lots of them – Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Firestone and Torrey Pines among the most obvious – and those who've followed him have their own, too. For Rory McIlroy, Quail Hollow immediately springs to mind, but the one where it all began is the one where he's at his most effective.
McIlroy's first professional victory came in the 2009 Dubai Desert Classic and he's been a permanent fixture since then. Dating back to that renewal he has played 40 rounds at Emirates Golf Club, and he's ended 37 of them inside the top 10. In six of these 10 tournaments he's been in front at halfway; in all bar one, he's been inside the top five with one round to go. As for the most important figure, he's won three, and it should have been five.
I wrote in last year's preview that you always feel like McIlroy will give you a chance, a sentence that proved painfully accurate just last Sunday, when he somehow conspired to lose out to Tommy Fleetwood. For some the diagnosis demands words as coarse as bottle but I'm not sure it's that simple. As he showed on Friday, when taking seven at a par-three, McIlroy's silly mistakes don't always tally with an increase in pressure. And as we saw when he beat Patrick Reed with a closing birdie in this event 12 months ago, he's shown plenty of grit at times, too.
Whatever the cause and however frustrating it was to watch him give away the Dubai Invitational, there's no denying his chance here is obvious and how you weigh his course comfort against a field twice the size and containing greater strength at the top will determine whether you want to give him another chance. For me, it isn't a particularly difficult decision: I simply believe the task last week was much easier than this one will be, so at the same price he has to be taken on.
It was actually more tempting to go with the man who beat him, Fleetwood, who has top-10 finishes following his last four wins. He started the year by admitting he hasn't done enough winning for his own liking and in beating his friend and Ryder Cup teammate, yes with a helping hand but also with birdies at the final two holes, he'll be feeling great ahead of what's another home game now that he lives out in Dubai.
This course suits him and unlike McIlroy his price has shifted out to acknowledge the stronger field, so with Brian Harman making his course debut and Tyrrell Hatton having a few questions to answer for now, it's Fleetwood who looks the best option from the very top of the market.
My favourite bet though is ADRIAN MERONK, for whom this is an absolutely ideal golf course.
Meronk showed as much when fourth on debut and it was that which helped convince him he belonged at the top level, which is where he now is after four wins and his graduation to PGA Tour membership for 2024.
The Pole played alongside McIlroy and more than matched him that week, producing what have since become customarily strong ball-striking stats. Right now you'd be hard pressed to name a better driver among the DP World Tour membership, McIlroy arguably the only exception, and Meronk has also become a highly proficient wedge player, too.
Emirates GC is particularly vulnerable to good drivers, even more so those who turn the ball right to left, and we've seen that down the years through wins for Stephen Gallacher and Sergio Garcia, then more recently Bryson DeChambeau, Lucas Herbert, Paul Casey, Viktor Hovland and McIlroy once again.
Part of the reason for that is the nature of the course and its scoring holes, the four par-fives (two of which require a draw off the tee), and holes two and 17, both driveable par-fours. It's possible to pick up six birdies or perhaps an eagle or two here without making a putt of note, if that is you're hitting long, accurate drives at a course which is far from a pushover.
Although he missed the cut on his return last year, Meronk gained strokes in all departments bar putting, where he suffered one of the worst weeks of his career. It was just one of those things that can happen and tells us nothing at all about his prospects this time.
Hopefully, his week-to-week improvements with the putter since the DP World Tour Championship last November prove more informative. After carrying him to victory in Spain, Meronk's putting fell off a cliff but he's now improved in each of his last four starts, culminating in a slightly above-average display at the Dubai Invitational last week.
Another step forward might be all it takes for another Dubai resident, who knows this course very well, and whose next step should involve winning in stronger company than he has so far managed. He looks one of the key threats to the first four in the betting.
Cameron Young ought to love this challenge and it wouldn't shock anyone were he to achieve something he's not yet managed on the PGA Tour and win this title. The issue is not so much his putting, which has been poor, but the fact that he's not driven the ball as well as he can since the FedEx Cup Playoffs. His last dozen rounds feature four of 65 or better so he's not far away, but connecting them has proven a challenge.
Joaquin Niemann and Adam Scott showed good form in Australia, the former going 5-1 across that fortnight, and it'll be fascinating to see how he does both here and beyond. Niemann has dropped outside the world's top 50 since joining LIV Golf, which does not accurately reflect his ability, and it would be good for the sport were he to somehow return to it in time for the Masters. He's quite hard to price but a lack of course experience, and the fact he's so well suited to the conditions he found in Australia, are enough to look beyond him.
Time for twin to peak?
Preference is for RASMUS HOJGAARD, who made an eye-catching return to action last week where a quiet final round saw him slip just outside the top 10.
It's noticeable how his form has turned around since the European Ryder Cup side was named, having clearly struggled to back up the Made in Denmark win which suddenly raised the prospect of both Hojgaard twins making that side. As Nicolai thrived during those final few weeks, Rasmus struggled, and in the end he wasn't close to making it.
But since that burden was eased, he's been excellent. Seven starts have resulted in seven top-30 finishes and he might have given Max Homa something to think about in the Nedbank Challenge had his putter behaved, which it had been before and has again since.
In fact all aspects of his game look good, particularly his approach work which has so far powered all of his wins. Rasmus is behind his brother off the tee but there's improvement coming there, too, as he looks to have picked up a few yards. The fact that he's driven the ball nicely on his previous Dubai Desert Classic starts offers hope that he can do so again.
Hojgaard is building a strong desert record now and he's been ninth and 20th across the last three renewals of this tournament, both courtesy of closing 67s. Last year's effort was especially impressive given that he'd missed the Hero Cup and Abu Dhabi Championship through injury, whereas his preparation this time looks absolutely ideal.
Like Meronk, he played the par-fives really well in the Dubai Invitational and better is to come. There's absolutely no doubt he's been spurred on by Nicolai's exploits and at the prices, I'll take Rasmus to emulate his twin brother and beat some big names in Dubai.
You can build a case for most of these tier two players, including Dubai-based Thorbjorn Olesen and the metronomic Jordan Smith, but I prefer LAURIE CANTER at 50s and bigger.
Fourth here on his first look back in 2021, Canter then did really well to make the cut following a nightmare start on his return a year later.
Since then of course he's been part of the LIV Golf operation, filling in as a reserve at times and banking a lot of money, which he spoke about candidly on a recent episode of The Chipping Forecast.
What the future holds for him I don't know, but whereas last year his low category, brought about by that LIV move, meant he couldn't get into this field, he's back thanks to finishes of fourth and second in his final two starts of 2023.
Canter hit the ball well and looked more assured than he sometimes has on the greens throughout both those appearances, first behind Niemann in Australia then Louis Oosthuizen in Mauritius, and if he picks up where he left off then he could look a big price for this more obviously suitable test.
Having established himself as one of the very best drivers on the circuit since coming of age in 2020, Canter has bagged top-fives both here and in the DP World Tour Championship down the road, and it's noticeable that he's ranked second and third in strokes-gained off the tee in these two Dubai Desert Classic appearances.
More of the same and he has a strong each-way chance despite the fact that those who played last week ought to be at a slight advantage.
Of them, Daniel Hillier's long-game stats are extremely impressive and his correlating course form is, too. Eichenried and the Belfry seem good guides to this through some big names and some lesser ones, and it was over that fortnight last season that Hillier made a name for himself and earned his place in this kind of company.
The trouble is he's undoing all his excellent ball-striking once he gets near the green, alarmingly so, which is also true of Dan Bradbury. The latter shot 63 in round two of this event last year and if he can fix his putting, is another whose long-game could go a heck of a long way at a course which features a tough collection of par-threes and some strong par-fours.
I have to give brief mention to Alejandro del Rey, a powerhouse who has desert experience from his college days in Arizona. I suspect he'll love this course and if there's a youngster to follow on the DP World Tour this season, it's him – assuming that a certain former Sun Devil doesn't have him earmarked for a place on his LIV Golf team, that is.
Bernd notice
Del Rey is one to consider for the first-round lead granted a good draw, and Andrea Pavan is of some interest for yet another top 20 if you like that sort of market, but in terms of outsiders with winning potential I can't resist chancing BERND WIESBERGER on his return to the DP World Tour.
A member of the defeated 2021 Ryder Cup side, Wiesberger has class in spades and maybe the reason he's been unable to show it during two years on the LIV Golf circuit is that he's not the sort of character to thrive under those circumstances, or revel in that scrutiny.
Back where he may feel he belongs, don't be surprised if the Austrian proves capable of reestablishing himself and at three-figure prices, I'm willing to chance him doing so at the first opportunity.
Wiesberger was my 33/1 headline selection here two years ago when a poor final round saw him fade out of contention, but he's been close to the lead in each of his last three visits now (6-24-20) and produced a rounded performance to take sixth in 2021.
He didn't do much wrong for 20th place last year, a week after a lacklustre effort in Abu Dhabi, and seven top-25s in 13 appearances in the Dubai Desert Classic confirms that he's very much suited to the course.
The absence since LIV Golf's last event is a negative, but Wiesberger has gone close to winning on his seasonal return more than once in the past, and I'm content that the price offered provides ample compensation.
His final round as an individual on the LIV circuit was an impressive 63, after which he won two pairs matches out of two in the finale, so there are some signs this former top-50 talent has his game in the sort of shape required to return to the top end of DP World Tour leaderboards if he's sharp.
You'd have to think he's geared up for this so he gets the vote.
Former champion Haotong Li returned to action with a much improved display as did Francesco Molinari, enough to put both on the radar of early punters, while I have an inkling that Rafa Cabrera Bello might do something in the coming weeks and months with his 40th birthday on the horizon.
Cabrera Bello said late last year that he thinks he's found a fix to some longstanding issues and a top-10 in Australia was quick reward for that, so again this is a past champion who may be on the up.
Players like him, Li and Molinari would typically be under strong consideration at big each-way prices but this is a Rolex Series event, not usually the place to go hunting too far down the betting, and the top of it is strong enough to suggest that the pool of winners here might be relatively small.
ANTOINE ROZNER merits inclusion in it, though, having picked up three titles in four seasons so far, two of them here in the Middle East and all three demonstrating his comfort levels in the wind.
He let us down prior to Christmas when opening with a round of 62 that looked like being lower still in Mauritius and failing to kick on, but that was the latest piece of evidence that he's not far away at all.
His return at Dubai Creek also offered encouragement, particularly off the tee where he gained strokes and looked better as the week progressed. That department has held him back a little in recent months and more of the same looked on the cards when his first tee shot of the tournament found water, but thereafter he was back to his old self.
Rozner in fact began each of his first two rounds with double-bogeys but so much of his performance offered promise and his irons have been dialled in for some time. Ninth here on his second start in 2021, anything like a good putting week could certainly see this quality ball-striker in the mix for places and he's just as good a golfer as some of those quoted at half the odds.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 15/01/24
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