Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Czech Masters preview and best bets
Ben Coley landed two places as the DP World Tour returned last week. Find out which Ryder Cup hopefuls he's backing for the Czech Masters.
Golf betting tips: Czech Masters
3pts win Adrian Meronk at 14/1 (General)
3pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Niklas Norgaard at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Julien Guerrier at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matti Schmid at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Alex Levy at 275/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
In a sport where everybody loses most of the time, winning really isn't everything, and if you want to compare two players there are better ways to do that than by counting up trophies. The player with none might have performed to a higher standard than the player with two.
But over the course of the next fortnight, winning might actually be everything. It's not just that Europe has a handful of options to fill out its Ryder Cup team, it's that in so many ways they are similar – right down to three of them having won at the Ryder Cup course. Whoever steps up might reasonably have earned the benefit of any doubt.
The European Masters, which takes place next week in the Swiss Alps and is the final qualifying event, might feel more important than the Czech Masters because of the ordering of the schedule and a stronger field, but it's this week that I think should be considered the one to get right.
Whoever wins at Crans will have demonstrated those things champions need to demonstrate, especially if they're European, but Albatross in Prague is comparable with Marco Simone in Italy and if one of the hopefuls takes this title it might be enough, either to take the final European points qualifying spot or to earn the faith of Luke Donald and his team.
The Matt Wallace episode in 2018 demonstrates that captains tend to know better than most that winning isn't the best way to separate golfers, but the margins this time around are much tighter. There are at least three players in this field for whom victory this week could seal the deal and only one, Shane Lowry, who can be absolutely sure of his place on the team.
Nicolai narrowly over Aberg
None of the contenders provokes debate more than Ludvig Aberg does and the rookie Swede, who turned pro in June, has been placed right behind Lowry in the market. Having joked on a July episode of The Tips that I'd be selecting him as my headline bet for this specifically at odds of 12/1, now that it's here I find that price to be on the short side.
Aberg's ceiling is higher than anyone else's, but that's not what we're being asked to bet on and I had hoped we might be offered 16/1 or perhaps even bigger. We're not, so while his prodigious driving makes him an ideal match for this golf course, he's not alone in that and the price, along with some concerns around his approach work, make the decision easy enough.
For my money his chance is about the same as NICOLAI HOJGAARD's and as a longtime advocate of the Dane making the Ryder Cup side, I'll back him to just about seal his place in style.
We were on Hojgaard here in 2021 when he finished 17th on his debut, ranking second in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Gallingly, he not only went on to win his next start (in Rome), but did so as a late alternate, beating my headline selection in a close finish.
That of course can't be held against him and I just love the way he's played this year. Yes, it's his brother, Rasmus, who produced that famous win on home soil last month, but Nicolai is the one who has taken his game to new heights. As I said at the top, trophies aren't the only way to measure progress.
His year began with an impressive performance in the Hero Cup and since then he's mixed it on both main tours, contending in Thailand and then the Dominican Republic in the spring, proving competitive in good events like the Texas Open, then returning for a staying-on fifth back at Marco Simone.
Although a brief lull followed, he arrives here on the back of four top-25 finishes in six starts, including sixth place at the Scottish Open where his putter let him down. That club fired last time and he finished 14th, alongside Aberg, on the PGA Tour, soon after 23rd place in the Open Championship.
The two blips in this summer run were both missed cuts on the number, both when stepping off the plane following another transatlantic flight, and what really catches my eye is that he's done all this without his driver. That's right, arguably the best driver on the DP World Tour has been just a little quiet with that club, his approach play and improving short-game instead doing the heavy lifting.
You could say that's a negative, but I see it differently. This will be the best course for him, in terms of how he can attack it off the tee, since the Italian Open, where he ranked second in that department. Since then he's played a couple of links events, a Canadian Open on a really fiddly set-up, and simply nothing at all that compares with Albatross. That driver might suddenly click back into gear.
Hojgaard, whose first DP World Tour win came right on the heels of his brother's third, has come a long way since he was in the mix for this on debut. He can close the gap on Rasmus by winning on his second look at a course which is built for his powerhouse style.
If it's not Hojgaard, then it might well be the only man who sits ahead of him in this year's tee-to-green stats, ADRIAN MERONK.
It was Meronk who won the Italian Open this year, having previously finished runner-up at the same course behind Hojgaard in 2021, and the two often pop up at the same courses given their obviously similar games. Most of the time, such as at Al Hamra, it's when they can hit driver with power and impunity.
In fact if there is one player on the circuit who drives it better than Hojgaard then it must be Meronk, this season's leader in strokes-gained off-the-tee, so to some degree if you fancy one you have to be considering the other. The fact that they both finished tied 23rd at the Open only makes them harder still to separate.
Meronk has been absent since but I doubt that'll be an issue given that his first win came after a similar time off, and that he's shown up and played well on his last two starts in Abu Dhabi, which has for so long kicked off the year on the DP World Tour.
The Pole is surely now established as the best player on this circuit (among those without a full PGA Tour card), his form reading 10-MC-4-1-4-3-15-MC-23 so far in 2023, and that's supported by the fact he tops the strokes-gained total charts as well as leading both the driving and tee-to-green categories.
As far as this course goes, he was 17th (alongside Nicolai once more) on his last visit two summers ago, but look at his form coming in: 45-MC-MC-59-51 from the start of June, leagues below the standards he's reached in going 3-15-MC-23 during the same period this time around.
Meronk has won three of his last 21 starts at this level and at 14/1 generally I'm not sure the market is paying him quite enough respect. I'd make him the most likely winner of the event, with Lowry, Hojgaard and Aberg next, so again it's a case of being led to the value option.
Don't take Moller lightly
I've come this far without acknowledging the fact that this tournament has put us through the wringer. Two years ago, 66/1 shot Tapio Pulkkanen closed bogey-double bogey to let Johannes Veerman in, then last year 70/1 Gavin Green also went odds-on, also made a late double, then lipped out his putt for a play-off.
Pulkkanen and Green later made the staking plan in Portugal where both hit the frame, underlying similarities between these two courses, and both came under consideration again. Green perhaps looks short enough with his driving a nagging worry, so I'd lean more towards Pulkkanen, who has contended on three of his four course starts.
I'll head further up the betting though to NIKLAS NORGAARD MOLLER (now known as Niklas Norgaard), preferred to Wilco Nienaber now that the later has, not unexpectedly, caught the attention of early punters after his effort in Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile Moller has been off for a few weeks since missing the cut in the Barracuda which, combined with a missed cut on his first look at this course last August, makes him easy to overlook at what is a more generous price.
As with all my selections, the Dane is capable of exceptional driving performances, and he produced one here over the 36 holes he played. In fact, on a per-round basis it was his standout display so far on the DP World Tour, compelling evidence that he can bully this course in the way so many contenders have.
With his approach work improved, which we saw most notably when he ranked third at Marco Simone but also when contending for the British Masters and then finishing mid-pack in Denmark, Moller has all the tools for this as well as a couple more top-10s on driver-heavy courses including at the Dunhill Links, where Pulkkanen often plays well.
Fourth in the 2021 Czech Challenge, he can improve upon his debut at Albatross and offer yet another reminder that the best way to measure form is to widen the lens. Moller has played well virtually every week this year and I expect that to continue under what are considered perfect conditions.
Sean Crocker has ranked 65th in putting on both Albatross starts yet still finished second on his debut two years ago, so following some improved displays of late he has to be on the radar. Much will depend on that putter, which came alive a year ago in Scotland as he won his first professional title.
Whether it does again is anyone's guess and I marginally prefer JULIEN GUERRIER, who has done everything but win over the past year or so.
Third place in Italy is the most compelling piece of evidence in his favour but third place on the PGA Tour last time out is serious form and he was second at Green Eagle in-between these two efforts. In total, he has five top-three finishes since last July, so he's banging loudly on the door.
Rewind to 2020 and he was the runaway leader in Portugal for a while and two years earlier he'd been eighth here, while his performances at Al Hamra also stack up with Meronk, Hojgaard, Veerman, and the type of player I'm looking for in a typical Czech Masters.
Though not so good when returning to Prague in 2021, Guerrier had played poorly for several months back then and is a far better player today. In fact, those five top-fives in 13 months make up over half of his overall total at this level, and I'd also note that the first of them came way back in 2010 in the now defunct Czech Open.
Long and effective off the tee, Guerrier's approach play comes and goes but when it's on, he tends to find himself in the mix. We don't strictly know if that was true in the Barracuda, but it certainly has been whenever he's contended in Europe lately and he's hitting plenty of greens, which makes him dangerous as an occasionally red-hot putter.
Should he find one of those putting weeks, this former winner of the Amateur Championship might finally get off the mark. At the very least he can show up well and underline how similar this is to what lies ahead at Marco Simone in little more than a month.
Get a load of Schmid
Among the other courses that might offer up some clues is Steyn City, where Nick Bachem won the Jonsson Workwear Open earlier this year. That wide-open layout plays into the hands of big hitters like him and for much of the final round it was Green who appeared to be his chief threat.
Bachem could even return to form under these conditions but his compatriot MATTI SCHMID looks the better bet.
I had Schmid on my radar for this last year only for him to head to Korn Ferry Tour Finals instead, and in part that was based on his third place at Steyn City at the beginning of the season.
Having come through those KFT Finals and earned a PGA Tour card he's since fallen off the radar somewhat, but among just four DP World Tour starts this season he's finished fourth, 21st and 18th, with one missed cut at the extremely penal Green Eagle back home in Germany.
That tells you a lot about the difference in levels and he now returns following finishes of 20th and 22nd out in the US, firstly behind Lee Hodges at the 3M Open and then at the Wyndham, where Lucas Glover won the first of his back-to-back titles.
Neither course suits Schmid as much as this one ought to but he still was able to demonstrate that his driver is firing, ranking 17th and fifth in strokes-gained off-the-tee, while he's been putting well for a good few months now.
Like Aberg, Nienaber, Norgaard and many a speed freak in this field and beyond, Schmid's approach play can be the issue yet it's fired when returning to this kind of company. He'd be a big runner if that happens again and though the venue is new to him, the formula isn't complicated.
Frenchman at a fancy price
Any number of genuine outsiders fit the profile including in-form Niklas Lemke and the promising Freddy Schott, the latter in particular boasting the tools for this course. The same goes for Mikael Lindberg, while JC Ritchie looks like he might have found some putting improvement and he's played well on all three previous visits.
All are considered but the one I really like is ALEX LEVY, who has made his last six cuts and looks like he might have plenty more to offer having been a one-time Ryder Cup hopeful himself.
The Frenchman missed almost all of last year through injury and it's little wonder his game has taken a while to come around, but it certainly has now and he arrives in Prague on the back of his best golf for some time.
Ninth in the Barbasol two starts ago was his first top-10 finish since August 2021 and came about following incremental improvements off the tee, enough to rank seventh on that driver-heavy course where last week's winner Daniel Brown was one shot ahead of him in the end.
Levy made the weekend at a much more fiddly course a week later and this consistency he's found stems from good approach work, having gained strokes in six of his last seven appearances versus one of the previous seven.
With his work around the greens generally excellent and his putter having also taken a step forward in the US, he looks like someone who could make an impact back in Europe – particularly at a course such as this one.
Levy was 18th here in 2019, when his form that year read 67-MC-5-WD-MC-MC-MC-MC-23-MC-MC-MC-MC, and the one bright spot among that miserable run came in the Saudi International, which is an excellent guide to this through Thomas Pieters, Adri Arnaus and Green and again demands plenty of drivers.
A former winner of the Portugal Masters, Levy has all the correlating form you could ask for in a 200/1 shot and his touch of class, combined with a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour last month, makes him the standout option among those hoping to keep the Ryder Cup out of the headlines.
Posted at 1800 BST on 21/08/23
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