Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana preview and best bets
Lanto Griffin can complete his return from injury by contending for the Corales Puntacana Championship according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana Championship
2pts e.w. Nate Lashley at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Davis Thompson at 35/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Sam Stevens at 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Chan Kim at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Lanto Griffin at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Opposite events have become all the more important now that the PGA Tour has made life that bit tougher for its lower-ranked members, who are feeding on scraps, hoping to play their way into the next big-money Signature Event where they'll have to compete with the best players in the world.
Last year's renewal of the Corales Puntacana Championship should however offer hope to everyone here. Runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard went on to compete in the Ryder Cup before capturing the DP World Tour Championship, while close behind him in sixth place, as it turned out, was US Open champion, Wyndham Clark.
However you rate them, wherever you stand on how fields should be determined, whether events like these should be considered part of the PGA Tour calendar or something else entirely, they are important. And, from a betting perspective, they provide a broader range of prices and scope for patience to be handsomely rewarded.
The Corales Puntacana has been on the schedule since 2016, albeit initially at a lower level, and we've got plenty to go on now. The first thing to say is that the course is long at over 7,600 yards, which no doubt helped Hojgaard, just as it had helped Tyler McCumber and Keith Mitchell before him.
Still, it's hard to argue that driving distance has been the decisive factor as yet. None of the eight champions could be classified as powerhouses, Hudson Swafford the only one even close to that, whereas in Graeme McDowell, Brice Garnett and Joel Dahmen, we've some accurate, old-fashioned ball-strikers who, in the case of the first two, boast dynamite short-games.
Garnett recently won the Puerto Rico Open to help draw an obvious parallel between two events played in similar places, on similarly wide, resort-style courses, and on the same paspalum grass. As was the case there, the outcome will to some extent depend on whether the current forecast of light wind turns into something more forceful.
Without it, there's no doubt the longer hitters are at an advantage, which would make Hojgaard the man to beat if he's recovered from an overwhelming Masters weekend. With it, Alex Noren would become the most likely contender, and with Aaron Rai, Victor Perez and Matti Schmid also in form, back-to-back wins for Europe could be on the cards either way.
Top of my list though is NATE LASHLEY, who admittedly falls more into the Garnett category but has shown what he can do here whatever the weather.
Winner of the 2017 edition when playing on the Korn Ferry Tour, Lashley is a bona fide course specialist who has also been fourth, 15th and twice just inside the top 30, missing the cut once in six visits.
His record in Puerto Rico, which reads 8-7-3-MC, is equally positive and therefore gives us a return of five top-10s in 10 starts across these two bedfellows, proof if nothing else that Lashley is simply a very good player in this grade.
He has coastal form in abundance, every single one of his top-10 finishes over the past four years having come by the sea, and right now he's hitting it about as well as ever. Lashley ranked third in strokes-gained approach when finishing 13th in The PLAYERS, and he's improved with his driver since then while still hitting his irons well.
Always reliable with a wedge and certainly capable of putting the lights out, which he did when overcoming a power handicap to take third at Torrey Pines, just behind Hojgaard, Lashley has the most solid profile of anybody here and looks a bet at 25/1 and bigger.
More Davis love
Beyond Lashley I do generally favour bigger hitters and while it's his course debut, DAVIS THOMPSON has plenty else going for him.
A formerly top-class amateur who almost beat Jon Rahm to win his first PGA Tour title at the beginning of last year, Thompson has continued to hint at the big performance which has been the only thing lacking subsequently.
There's depth to his form though, having made 15 of his last 19 cuts, and so often he's been on the fringes in much better company than this. That was true in Houston (21st), Phoenix (15th) and at the AmEx (21st), all strong events in their own right.
Also 24th in Mexico, so often he has demonstrated the potential to improve for a driver-first golf course like this one, and the bottom line is he's only needed to putt above average to be some kind of factor wherever he's played for many months now.
That club has improved throughout each of his last three starts and the only real negatives are a blip in his approach work in Texas, combined with a lack of experience under these conditions.
To my eye both are factored into his price and as one of the few players here with world-class potential, this long-awaited opportunity to back him for an opposite event has to be taken. He was too good for the Korn Ferry Tour, and I think time will tell he's too good for this sort of company, even if that guarantees nothing over four rounds.
Peter Kuest earned this opportunity by finishing 10th in Texas, where he again drove the ball to a high standard, and he could make it count if able to build on that. Kuest will be fresher than he was in San Antonio, where he had to come through a Monday qualifier, and showed last summer that he can compete on the PGA Tour.
He's respected at 66/1 but my favourite bet at a price is LANTO GRIFFIN, who looks great value at 100s.
Griffin is a PGA Tour winner with a touch of class having ranked as high as 49th in the world a couple of years ago, and he looks to be working his way back to form following a number of injury setbacks.
He's now made 10 of his last 12 cuts, the two exceptions both still featuring bounce-back rounds of 69, and his approach play has really started to sing having ranked ninth and 10th within his last three appearances.
Also 11th in that category in the AmEx and now beginning to drive the ball better, hopefully he's found time to work on his putting, once a strength but forced to take a back seat for a while.
Still, Griffin ranked 16th in the Farmers and led the field in the Sanderson Farms at the beginning of the FedEx Fall series, and there one or two signs of encouragement on paspalum grass if you dig deep enough.
His coastal form includes top-10s in the Sony, at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, he's been 15th in Mexico, 18th in Bermuda and even played well on his one start in the Open, so having grown up in California and won in Texas, a bit of wind should also be in his favour.
Griffin is certainly long enough off the tee and he played well here in 2018, finishing 29th having generally struggled for a while at the time, to the extent that he had to drop down to the Korn Ferry Tour later in the year to earn back his card.
He was caught out on a tough day of scoring in round three that year, but his other five rounds at the course have all been under-par, and he looks ready to add to them.
More of the same from Stevens?
The Coody twins remain ones to keep an eye on, Parker especially, while I'm a fan of Joe Highsmith and he's been in the mix a couple of times recently, including in Puerto Rico.
He's one to consider but I prefer a couple of more experienced, longer hitters, starting with SAM STEVENS.
Stevens was the 54-hole leader last year, eventually finishing third behind two high-class operators in Hojgaard and the eventual champion, Matt Wallace.
He was probably in slightly better form at the time, but might just have turned a corner lately with two top-20s in his last five starts, during which time his only missed cut came at the unforgiving Sawgrass.
These five starts have all come since his OSU teammate Austin Eckroat won the Cognizant Classic and having seen Eckroat make his Masters debut last week, Stevens might just be spurred on to join him in taking that next step up the ladder.
With two top-20s in Puerto Rico, where he was firmly in contention last March, he's certainly stepped up when dropping down so to speak and he says he loves playing in the wind, which is still a factor at the forecast 12-14mph.
Stevens was a quality college player who has won in Colombia at a lower level, contended by the coast in Hawaii and went close on a big-hitter course on the Korn Ferry Tour, so having shown a liking for Puntacana he's one I want to be with at 40s and upwards.
CHAN KIM meanwhile has a definite touch of class, as he showed when going back-to-back on the Korn Ferry Tour late last summer, just when it seemed he'd fail to do as I and many others expected and earn his PGA Tour card.
A prolific winner in Japan, regardless of scoring conditions, and with a couple of good major performances to his name, big-hitting Kim belongs on the PGA Tour and he's really starting to find his feet now.
Eighth in Mexico came on a big, wide-open resort course and since then he's made every cut, taking another step forward last time out when 14th in Texas, having hit the ball to a similar standard a week earlier only without holing much.
Kim is an up and down putter who is very capable of being among the best in any given week, and as a long driver whose approach play has struck form, he has all the right tools for this course.
One of those major performances I referenced was 23rd on paspalum greens at the long, exposed Kiawah Island, while he also finished 16th on his Puerto Rico Open debut when not yet in possession of a PGA Tour card and therefore playing under real pressure.
On the fringes of the places entering the final round there last month, he's since taken further steps forward and looks a potential champion to me, one who is preferred to Kevin Yu given the latter's propensity to ruin rounds with his short-game.
Yu was among my selections at big odds in the Texas Open but taking short ones about a player who can be utterly hopeless with the putter doesn't appeal much.
Instead, side with some powerhouses who can run hot in anticipation of a slightly lower-scoring renewal of an event that one way or another will matter a lot to somebody come Sunday.
Posted at 2000 BST on 15/04/24
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