Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Charles Schwab Challenge preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley is sticking with Jordan Spieth as he heads to Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Golf betting tips: Charles Schwab Challenge
4pts win Jordan Spieth at 14/1 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Brian Harman at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Tyler Duncan at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Whether by accident or design, the PGA Tour tends to do a good job when it comes to post-major golf. When we've all been through an intense week, surely nobody – players, caddies, writers, fans – wants anything resembling that which came before. What's needed here is a change of pace, ideally from something established that all of us can ease into without having to speculate too much.
We get it at Harbour Town in April, and now we get it at Colonial Country Club in May. This is a heritage PGA Tour event, dating back to the end of the Second World War, one with a fixed home that itself harks back to another age. So does the winner's plaid jacket which, while objectively awful to look at, adds another flourish of traditionalism in a tournament won by some of the most old school ball-strikers this sport has ever produced.
There is one recurring theme from Southern Hills and it comes from Perry Maxwell, who designed both courses. That in turn creates the odd similarity, but in truth the respective challenges differ in more ways than intensity. This is a flat, mid-length par 70, stacked with shorter par-fours, its fairways are narrower, rows of trees more dense. It won't be as difficult, of course, but nor will it be a pushover – particularly if forecast winds arrive as scheduled.
Further contrast likely comes from the type of player who ought to contend here. Yes, a big-hitter won it last year and one of them might do it again, but an absence of power won't be the handicap it was in the PGA Championship. This is a place where Kevin Na faced challenges from Andrew Putnam and CT Pan, but Tony Finau, too. More so than a lot of courses, it levels the playing field for a smaller-than-usual field of 120.
Stick with Spieth at happy hunting ground
One glance at the betting reveals that the field is good given the timing, with Scottie Scheffler favourite to bounce back from last week, and Justin Thomas a 12/1 shot to somehow regather himself and go back-to-back. But the appeal comes from right behind these two, with JORDAN SPIETH a painfully obvious but absolutely necessary selection.
Believe it or not, Spieth played better than Thomas from tee-to-green last week, another poor putting display keeping him pegged to the periphery as his childhood friend won the very major which still eludes him. It was no doubt a missed opportunity for Spieth, who benefited from a good draw and would've relished putting together the sort of charge that instead came from Thomas, a worthy champion whatever happened in behind.
Putting continues to be an issue for Spieth, who was gifted the RBC Heritage when it ought to have again cost him. Subsequently second in the Byron Nelson after a three-putt from nowhere during the final round, a season which has brought one win (and accompanying plaid jacket) but two near-misses and some major frustrations will have to go down as bittersweet for the time being.
There can be no doubt about his long-game, though, and that will give Spieth enormous satisfaction. He knows as we all should that his tee-to-green game will be key to success going forward, so that when a good putting week comes along, something good happens – just as it did to Thomas. It's certainly no exaggeration to say that if Spieth were to find his at the right time, he'd be extremely difficult to beat.
And if it's to come anywhere, then Colonial is the place. He led the field in putting here in 2019 and 2020 before ranking fourth last year. In five of the last six years he's been one of the best putters in the field at a course he knows so well. If – and no, it's not usually this simple, but if – he were to marry any one of these performances with any one of his recent tee-to-green displays, he'd be the one they all have to beat on Sunday.
With form figures here of 7-14-2-1-2-32-8-10-2 we know by now that Colonial, once synonymous with Ben Hogan, is Spieth's ballpark. He'll know he ought to have won this title more than once, and he's bound to be spurred on by seeing Thomas win again. These two are extremely close, and both of Thomas's major wins came on the heels of significant successes for Spieth.
Back to that putter, and it's worth noting that there is precedent. In 2017, he arrived with form figures of MC-MC, putting poorly, and finished second, putting well. In 2020 he led the field as golf returned from its spring shutdown, and went on to putt modestly for the rest of summer. Last year he arrived with a near-identical PGA Championship behind him, and bang, back came his putting touch.
This is one tournament where it's particularly important to putt well, and that will determine how close Spieth gets to winning. His ceiling, though, is surely the highest of the favourites when it comes to what happens on the greens, with the likes of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris, plus Thomas, facing similar questions.
Spieth has answered them time and again here and there's really no hesitation in backing him to land an overdue Colonial double.
Can nearly-men bounce back?
Speaking of Zalatoris, he has to prove that he can put Sunday's near-miss behind him. It would be easy to say 'he did very little wrong' and perhaps that's true, but despite standing tall towards the end of the round, he did three-putt the 16th green from nowhere and ultimately produced his worst rounds at the weekend, so this was a big opportunity missed.
I do recall him saying after his Farmers Insurance Open play-off loss that it reminded him of his Korn Ferry Tour win, which came days after a difficult defeat. Zalatoris didn't get the chance to walk the walk after Torrey Pines as Covid ruled him out of Pebble Beach. Perhaps he'll underline how extraordinary a talent he is by doing something which has been done before, and win days after a major disappointment. It certainly seems more likely than Mito Pereira somehow going again.
At the prices those are subplots which require no investment and I'll adhere largely to the established Colonial formula. What we're looking for are generally accurate drivers, whose bread and putter is approach play and deadly putting. If they've got form at similar courses, like Sea Island, Harbour Town, Waialae and Sedgefield, then all the better.
Keen observers won't need long to conjure the name WEBB SIMPSON from that list and after his best golf of the year in a PGA dominated by bigger hitters, he might just be able to take another big step forward.
Simpson powered from the cut line to 10th place last Saturday, before labelling a third-round 65 one of the best of his life. He followed it with a decent enough 72 which saw him drop to 20th under easier conditions, but all in all it was a fine week's work, and potentially an important one.
At 48th in the world and 125th in the FedEx Cup standings, Simpson needs a good summer to access the Playoffs and you can be sure they're moving from back of mind to front, because he's yet to miss them.
Rewind to 2016, when Simpson led at halfway on his way to a top-five finish here, and he was keen to discuss a similar plight in words which could so easily apply today.
"I got to a point a few weeks ago when I was looking at my FedEx number, and I've never really been in a position like this," he said, explaining why he'd come back to the course for the first time since 2010. "I love the end of the year golf. I love the Playoffs. I love all those courses we get to play.
"There's definitely been some motivation sitting at home and watching these guys play good every week. It's my ninth year on TOUR, but I've been more excited to play golf the last couple weeks, I think, than I have in a long time."
Simpson led at halfway again in 2017, his form having been poor for a couple of months before some better golf emerged at Sawgrass, and I think it's significant that he's back. The former US Open champion has only been here twice since 2017, first when reappearing following an overdue PLAYERS win, then in 2020 when everyone came out to play following the shutdown. Colonial returns to the schedule as an acknowledgement of the fact that, having missed a number of events through injury, he now has work to do.
Wins at Harbour Town, Sawgrass, TPC Boston and Sedgefield all correlate nicely and his top-10s since the start of last year include a couple of these plus Sea Island and Waialae, so he's very much the type for this. He also comes here having produced his best approach play stats of 2022 in the PGA, new irons bedding in very quickly, and sounded very much like someone who felt like he was finally about to be rewarded for his hard work.
It's worth noting that Simpson was further down the world rankings when coming here in 2016 and 2017 and contending until the end. Now, with his place in the top 50 to preserve and having won a week after the PGA Championship before, he looks to have everything in his favour.
Former winner Na has to be respected having scooted round here in 62, 63 or 64 several times before, but I'll give the edge to BRIAN HARMAN following some more encouraging signs at Southern Hills.
Harman finished 34th last week but that's all because he couldn't compete off the tee, having been slightly below his best in terms of hitting fairways and likely to have been left behind regardless. Nevertheless, his iron play remained very good, the best it's been all year in fact, and that was following a strong ball-striking display in the Wells Fargo.
Prior to the PGA he'd ranked first and second in driving accuracy and the putter has come back after a strangely quiet run in Florida, so everything is in order as he seeks to win for the first time since 2017.
As with Spieth and Simpson, Colonial is a fine place to put everything together as he'll be properly rewarded for his accuracy, and boasts an exceptional record at the course. Harman has made eight cuts in a row since missing out on debut, and like Na has shown that he can produce those low scoring days that will be needed, firing a round of 64 and a couple of 65s.
Last year he finished eighth without putting particularly well and with three top-10 finishes here, and nothing worse than 31st since that first visit, it's one course where he'll know he doesn't have to punch above his weight to compete.
I will confess that DAVIS RILEY wasn't necessarily a player I expected to be putting up here, but he's a very special talent who arrives bang in-form, and he's good enough to be that rare thing: a winner of this title aged under 30.
Spieth, Daniel Berger and Sergio Garcia are the only other recent examples at a course where a bit of nous goes a long way, but Riley is on his way to the very top and in time his name will slot in alongside those three. As such, I can overlook the fact he's making his course debut, another factor which is against him.
In his favour is the way he's playing, having been second, fourth, fifth, ninth and 13th in seven starts dating back to the middle of March. First he rode his putter to the runner-up spot at the Valspar, then again to fifth place in Mexico, but over the last two weeks he's been in the mix without it having properly fired.
Indeed at the PGA, Riley finished 13th while ranking 58th in putting. He was sixth off the tee and with his approaches, gaining almost 11.5 strokes with his ball-striking alone, better than all bar Cameron Smith. It was another big step forward in a career which is gathering pace, and it can't hurt that his mentor Thomas beat his roommate Zalatoris in a play-off.
Riley belongs in that kind of company and now that his long-game has clicked, he might capitalise straight away. We know he's a dynamite putter and he really does remind me a lot of Thomas, not just because they both went to college in Alabama and emerged on the PGA Tour wearing a Titleist cap.
There probably are better venues to come for him but I can't pass up the opportunity to row in at 50/1 here.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the sort of player who should thrive at Colonial and he did hint at that despite missing the cut in that strong 2020 renewal. The South African could bounce back having done very little wrong despite failing to make the weekend at Southern Hills, but he's probably more a three-ball, match bet or top-20 option.
Justin Rose is working on some things in his swing but for which he'd have to be considered at 50/1 given his record here, and it's worth a look at US Open qualifying where Kurt Kitayama's good form appears set to continue. He'll miss a lot of fairways here though, and his approach play and putting might not cover the gap.
At the time of writing, STEPHAN JAEGER is just on the fringes there and however his second round ends, it seems to be a continuation of some promising recent form.
The German has really picked up of late, first finishing 29th alongside Joel Dahmen at the Zurich Classic, then adding finishes of 15th, sixth and 38th across his next three starts in a fruitful five-week run of golf.
Key to his improvement has been the best sustained run of iron play he's so far managed, ranking 35th in Mexico and then 11th on his next two starts. Put that alongside one of the very best short-games on the PGA Tour and good things will happen on the right course, especially once his putter warms up.
As he says himself, chipping and putting are his main strengths so if this run of better approach work continues, he can get in the mix under the right circumstances. On that we have to take a little on trust because it's his debut here, but he's got some correlating Korn Ferry Tour form where he's a six-time winner, and I love how streaky he is.
Finally, a very small bet on TYLER DUNCAN is recommended.
At 10th in driving accuracy and 40th in greens, accuracy is Duncan's game in a nutshell and it's translating to solid strokes-gained stats: he's 61st off the tee despite being a short hitter, and 68th with his approaches. He needs a course where a fairway hit really is an advantage and that's Colonial, where he's made the cut on both visits and opened with a round of 65 in 2020.
That came in the strongest field this event has ever attracted so no wonder he faded to 38th, but I'm not surprised it's back on the schedule as he tries to nudge his way inside the vital top 125 from a current perch of 131st, for all that his exemption for winning takes him through next season too.
A former winner of the RSM Classic when getting the better of Simpson, it's no coincidence that his best recent form came at the Heritage (12th) nor that last year's best was at the Sanderson Farms (14th). Yes, this tells us he's not been contending but he's also been 13th at the Wyndham and if he does get a chance to win again, it'll be on a course like this.
He showed at Sea Island that he can grab such an opportunity with both hands and that came after two better displays in the run-up. This time his form may not look particularly strong, but his iron play fired in the Byron Nelson, on a wide, low-scoring course which won't have suited him, so the move to Colonial might just do the trick.
Posted at 2145 BST on 23/05/22
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