Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Challenge Tour Grand Final preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley previews the Challenge Tour Grand Final, as 45 players battle it out for promotion to the DP World Tour live on Sky Sports.
Golf betting tips: Challenge Tour Grand Final
2pts e.w. Jens Dantorp at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Robin Sciot-Siegrist at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Simon Forsstrom at 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Jordan Smith, Oliver Wilson, even Ben Griffin... the last few weeks have given us some fantastic stories, in victory and defeat, from players who fought hard to achieve something which had at times seemed so far away.
For Griffin, who stood up for a post-round interview after throwing away the Bermuda Championship, the ultimate goal remains out of reach, and yet here was a player who little more than a year ago had been doing an office job and contemplating if professional golf was going to work out at all.
For Smith and Wilson, contrasting struggles – one seeking to fulfil his potential, the other to rebuild his career – ended in similarly emotional wins, both having failed to deliver on promises made to themselves: whatever you do, don't cry when you speak to Sky Sports afterwards.
It's these stories which give sport its beating heart, and thanks to Sky Sports' decision to broadcast this week's Challenge Tour Grand Final for the very first time, we'll get more of them in the coming days. All 45 players heading to Mallorca have guaranteed that they can tread this road again next year, but none of them wants to. The goal is to secure one of 20 DP World Tour cards.
Returning to Club de Golf Alcanada, where Francesco Laporta triumphed in six-under in 2019, ought to ensure they each have to work hard for it. This course isn't long, but two of its par-fives stretch beyond 600 yards and only one of the other such holes is a penalty kick. The rest of Alcanada is all but sure to prove challenging providing there's some wind, and the forecast suggests we'll get it from Thursday afternoon well into the weekend.
Playing in the wind when you're under immense pressure is extremely difficult, in fact it's about as difficult as golf gets. Just ask Griffin. It also tends to favour those who've been around the block and back again, which is partly why the old man of the field, Matthew Baldwin, deserves his place towards the head of the market.
Baldwin though is 22nd on the Road to Mallorca standings, and it's hard to escape the fact that there's a divide in this field: those guaranteed or all but their cards on the big tour next year, and those either with a target on their backs, or on the outside looking in. Standings leader Jeremy Freigburghaus can focus solely on winning the event, as can JC Ritchie and a handful of others, and that's hugely beneficial.
Since David Drysdale won this from 45th in the standings back in 2005, just one other player has triumphed from outside the top 20, and that was two years later. We're therefore 15 years out from the last time a player ranked in Baldwin's position managed to secure their secondary goal for the week and lift the Grand Final trophy, and if that continues we can rule out six players trading at 33/1 or shorter.
In fact, it makes sense to creep further towards the top of the rankings when narrowing down the field. Seven of the last eight champions came from inside the top 10, the exception having been 11th, and these are the players who don't have to worry about what damage a bad week at the wrong time might do. It's a freedom which, come crunch time on Sunday, might be decisive.
The best bet at the prices is the man in 10th, ROBIN SCIOT-SIEGRIST, who has been a model of consistency and can be rewarded for that in the same way that Justin Suh was in the Korn Ferry Tour's equivalent.
Sciot-Siegrist of course doesn't carry Suh's potential but he has won at this level and threatened to on the DP World Tour, contending at 13th Beach when third. That's one of two top-10s and both came by the sea, the other in Mauritius at this time of year.
Coastal golf seems to suit the Parisian, because he was tied second here three years ago, too. That was akin to the dreaded fourth place in an Olympic final, as he would've earned promotion had he finished second on his own, only to see Sebastian Heisele scramble a closing par to hand the card to Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez instead.
Sciot-Siegrist started that week ranked 37th and, interviewed after his second round, made clear he knew exactly what was required with just 15 cards available. Surely that explains an over-par back-nine on Sunday as the birdies dried up at a course he said he really liked, and he'll feel as though he has a score to settle.
This time around he has nothing to worry about and I do think Alcanada is a really nice fit. It ties in particularly well with Morgado and he's one of the few players in this field with form over there in Portugal, again demonstrating his effectiveness when courses need to be picked apart.
Four of his 14 career top-fives have come since July to underline the fact that this really has been the best season of his career and, free from the pressure which will weigh heavy on some rivals including a handful who carry greater potential, this solid yardstick can prove the one they all have to beat.
Further up the betting, Oscar Lengden would be my pick of those in need of a big week. He's contended at Morgado and boasts a progressive 20-17-15-10 record in this event, while the fact he's returned from injury this year might help him to see this as a free hit.
The same logic applies to SIMON FORSSTROM and I will include the Swede despite the fact he's down in 40th place, albeit he wouldn't have been recommended at anything under 40/1.
At least Forsstrom can focus on winning as that's what he'll probably need to do, while I like the fact he's only played in 10 events, fewer than everyone in this field, having been on the Nordic Golf League until July.
Surely, qualifying for this was above his expectations and of all 25 players who are currently shy of the required mark, he's the one who should be delighted whatever happens.
The fact he's splitting Alfie Plant and Felix Mory, who've played 23 and 25 events respectively, tells you how well Forsstrom has played and he's been a regular on leaderboards, sitting inside the top 20 at halfway on seven occasions during this spell. Three top-10s is a good return and one of those came two starts ago before he again started well at Frilford Heath.
A former Challenge Tour winner, he also boasts some of the best Morgado form in the field with 17th and 22nd to his name there, so at 40s and upwards might just be able to do the unthinkable and win to earn DP World Tour membership for the first time in his career.
One man who's been there already is JENS DANTORP and he looks a rock-solid option from towards the top of the market.
Back-to-form when fourth in Oxfordshire last time, Dantorp will be hoping that's a portent to a huge week here as back in summer, he bagged five top-10s in six Challenge Tour starts and then made it seven in eight with two more on the DP World Tour.
All four top-10s at that higher level have been by the sea, two of them at Hillside and Fairmont St Andrews during the aforementioned stretch, and in two Challenge Tour starts in Spain this year he's been 54-hole leader the first time and then won the second – under tough conditions to boot.
He's not made much of an impact in this in the last two years but note his starting positions of 27th and 14th, either looking over his shoulder or straining to sneak inside the top 20. In 2016, he was a fast-finishing second when nothing less would've done, whereas a year earlier, when tied for the lead entering round four, he stalled to narrowly miss out on a card.
This time he's fifth, with the pressure well and truly off, and can focus on trying to end the year at the top of the Road to Mallorca standings. Prolific on the Nordic Golf League where he won the Order of Merit in 2011, he's well capable of winning his fourth Challenge Tour title and perhaps graduating at the top of the class.
Dantorp is preferred to JC Ritchie, who has played better in Spain than he has most places in Europe and has won the Sunshine Tour's Order of Merit before. Second entering the final event, he can improve on last year's poor weekend when the pressure was well and truly on, but Dantorp's form is stronger right now and that swings the vote in his favour.
Others of note include the rest of a talented bunch of Frenchmen, with even rank outsider Pierre Pineau of some interest after a closing 63 last time and Jeong Weon Ko the bubble boy in 20th. However, under the anticipated conditions I expect we'll see experience play a big part in what's a welcome addition to the golfing TV schedule.
Posted at 1555 GMT on 31/10/22
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