Ben Coley bagged places profits with an 80/1 chance on the DP World Tour last week, and is now backing Bernd Wiesberger for the Catalunya Championship.
Golf betting tips: Catalunya Championship
2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 28/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Fabrizio Zanotti at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo Vera at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Last week came the welcome news that Qualifying School returns in November following a three-year absence, the inclusion of a second stage venue in Australia strengthening ties to that part of the world. Its conclusion will take place at INFINITUM, where Pablo Larrazabal showed a touch of class on Sunday, as the Spaniard won his seventh DP World Tour title and second of 2022.
Larrazabal is in many ways what the DP World Tour is about, which might make some uncomfortable given that his bag sports a Golf Saudi logo. He has never cracked the top 50 in the world and never really looked like one who would make his way to the PGA Tour, even now. Instead, he sets a bar at this level, and if you find yourself up against him during the closing stages on Sunday, you'll know victory will be hard-earned.
He's also an advert for opportunities. Larrazabal came through Qualifying School back in 2007, and then a 36-hole qualifier for the Open de France during his rookie season. There, he famously held off Colin Montgomerie in front of friends and family for a 500/1 success, and he'd go on to beat Sergio Garcia for his second title, Rory McIlroy for his third, and Henrik Stenson for his fourth. It's a shame none of these came at the right time in terms of making a Ryder Cup team, and that might again be true in terms of his 2023 ambitions.
Before INFINITUM came along, PGA Catalunya was home to Qualifying School for many years, so in some ways we're repeating last week. We have stacks of form to go on, the Stadium Course having hosted four of the six rounds from 2008 onwards, the year Larrazabal sailed through. It's also staged a Nordic Golf League event, but this time we've got some DP World Tour form, too, courtesy of the 2000, 2009 and 2014 Open de Espanas.
Those three events confirm what we've subsequently learned at Qualifying School, that the Stadium Course here is pretty difficult. Indeed, Miguel Angel Jimenez won a play-off for the Open de Espana title in four-under, every single player in the field shooting over-par for the par-threes and par-fours, finding respite across four par-fives. Playing to a par of 72 again and with the par-five 15th particularly straightforward, we should see a similar pattern for all that scoring will surely be lower.
Under good conditions, which are currently forecast for this week, the Stadium Course is demanding but not brutal. Thomas Levet shot 18-under to win in 2009, and while Carlos Del Moral's 22-under for four rounds was outrageous, the best players at Q-School have tended to creep to somewhere around the 12-under mark. Something in the low teens might make for a good target, so again we're repeating last week to some degree, with INFINITUM clearly made tougher than it has been in the past.
Ryder Cup star can shine
We do have one or two high-class additions to the field, namely Jordan Smith, Adrian Meronk and Richard Bland, but I was staggered when bet365 made the first-named their favourite on Monday morning and want to be on BERND WIESBERGER now he's been eased a touch in the market.
An 18/1 shot this time last week, Wiesberger is now 25-30/1 and while a slightly stronger field might justify that, those who bring the level up also concede a pipe-opener to those who are playing their second week in Spain. With conditions likely similar, that looks a significant point of difference and it's not like the incoming lot are prolific winners, either.
Wiesberger is something approaching that, certainly at this level, with eight DP World Tour wins putting him ahead of Larrazabal by one. And while concerns over his putting must remain, this course is a stern ball-striking test where he can do his scoring damage on the par-fives, courtesy of a long-game perhaps only Marcus Armitage can rival right now.
The Austrian was pretty clear on the eve of the ISPS Handa that he felt a little undercooked, telling europeantour.com: "It’s been a little bit too long by about a week or so for my liking, but unfortunately I wasn't able to sneak into the Match Play at Austin so I had a week there without any tournaments.
"It was nice to be home obviously for three weeks but it just felt like after the season started with a nice run of events, I had a bit too long of a break but it is what it is and I tried to get ready as much as I could.
"All of the parts of the game are there so it’s just a matter of time before it all clicks. I’m looking forwards to when that happens and hopefully I can give it a go this week."
Those words would hardly have inspired confidence and he very much went through the motions to finish mid-division, hopefully with his sights set on this week and next. Remember, INFINITUM was new to him whereas he came through Qualifying School here back in 2008, later recovering from an opening 80 to make the cut and share 38th in 2014, his four-under total over the closing 54-holes matching the winning score.
A contender at Valderrama and Crans last year, Wiesberger boasts some encouraging recent form lines with this in mind, and of course made the Ryder Cup side to underline his class, then starting the DP World Tour Championship a well-backed 20/1 shot. That, remember, was won by Collin Morikawa, after McIlroy's late mistakes.
However, it's his victory in the 2015 Open de France which really catches my eye, as the obvious parallels between the stadium-like Le Golf National and this course, which was also built to host a Ryder Cup, are supported by the names who've contended at each.
Jimenez in fact was followed by Levet in winning the Open de France, and when the Spaniard won here in 2014, Thomas Pieters and Richard Green were beaten in a play-off. Pieters has a really good record in Paris but not as good as Green, who boasts five top-seven finishes there. Former Catalunya champion Brian Davis was fifth as was Markus Brier, who finished runner-up to him.
Wiesberger has made all seven cuts at Le Golf National, producing a stunning weekend's golf to win there in 2015, and if he does improve for last week is the one they all have to beat. He's been hitting the ball to a world-class standard for a year now and as well as a win in Denmark (first tee-to-green), he's also been runner-up twice, so at these prices in these fields he has to be of interest.
Ryan Fox caught the eye on his first start since winning in the UAE when 15th last week, carding four sub-70 rounds. It's possible the hitherto frustrating Fox goes on to win regularly and encouragement can be taken from both his own Le Golf National record, and fourth place last October at Valderrama.
He's respected along with Adri Arnaus, who so often raises his game on home soil, but at 40/1 I like the look of LAURIE CANTER.
This talented Englishman is now established as one of the best maidens on the circuit, and with so much of his best golf produced along the Iberian Peninsula, this looks a good event for the breakthrough.
Canter came close when runner-up to George Coetzee in Portugal and also had a chance when leading at Valderrama last year, which itself followed fifth place in Mallorca. Last week's 30th was a decent effort on his return from a break and everything about it suggests his customary long, straight driving and quality approach play had both taken steps forward from the first phase of the season which saw him employ some new gear.
He should certainly benefit from the addition of two par-fives and we know he can score here, having been 19th in two visits to Qualifying School, both of which came when he was outside the world's top 1,000 players. Now on the verge of the top 100, he's come a heck of a long way and a stern ball-striking test where he can lean on his driver should represent a nice opportunity.
Aside from the Hojgaard twins, Fox and Arnaus, there isn't anyone I fear at the top of the market, though Adrian Otaegui of course has to be respected. His first two DP World Tour wins came when he'd placed on his previous start and he's looking to repeat what happened in 2018, when he followed second place in China with victory in Belgium. It's certainly possible, but he's not one to be interested in when challenging for favouritism.
Will we see another Spanish winner?
Indeed the Spanish contingent as a whole are tricky to unpick, which is a shame. We saw on Sunday, when Larrazabal beat Otaegui, that sticking with the home players can be a straightforwardly effective strategy, having also seen Rafa Cabrera Bello beat Arnaus to the Open de Espana title late last year. Jorge Campillo, Alvaro Quiros, Pep Angles and Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez all contended in Mallorca, too, so a close look at everyone playing under the red-and-gold flag is a must.
Angel Hidalgo beat Angles to win the Open de Barcelona at the start of the month, an event hosted by Larrazabal, and played well for 30th last week. This young talent is certainly respected having also been 17th in Kenya and fifth in Joburg, while Nacho Elvira didn't do much wrong in missing the cut on the number at INFINITUM and won at another stadium course last year. They'd be my two, but in terms of a realistic Spanish winner, I don't see value in the options we have.
You might be within your rights to read the above as a delaying tactic before moving on to ROMAIN LANGASQUE.
In the latest chapter in a book we'll call 'how will Langasque coax everyone (or just me?) in', Langasque shot 77-65 last week, his second-round score bettered by just three players. On Friday at INFINITUM he carded four birdies and an eagle, but the damage had been done a day earlier.
Had those rounds been the other way I might've been happy to move on, but returning from a month off, anyone can be forgiven a slow start. Langasque was also on the wrong side of a slight draw bias so there are reasons to overlook what happened on Thursday, for all that I'm acutely aware he's received the benefit of the doubt many times now.
However once again we see his odds almost doubled, and by way of comparison he was 28-33/1 last week with Antoine Rozner 80/1. They're now 50/1 and 40/1 generally, and while Rozner is a quality player whose chance I respect, it's difficult to accept the idea that in effect a single round of golf should determine a complete switch in hierarchy.
I like Langasque for this course, too, because he's a quality driver who, like Elvira, won at Celtic Manor, and did so under much tougher conditions. He's also played nicely at Le Golf National and led at halfway at Valderrama last October. Above all else, I remain faithful to the idea that he's got bags of ability, and the pieces are falling into place now he's found improvements with the putter.
Which outsiders came under consideration?
At really big prices, the eye is drawn to Chris Wood and Jack Singh Brar, both of whom have hinted that there might be light at the end of what have been long, dark tunnels.
Wood produced some quality approach work to make his first cut of the year in Qatar, finding comfort again back where he won his first DP World Tour title. PGA Catalunya could be a good place for him to build on that as he was fifth at Qualifying School here in 2008, contended the following year for the Open de Espana, and did so again when seventh in 2014.
At his peak, Wood had several chances under difficult conditions in Spain and he did end last year showing some positive signs. The worry is he's almost guaranteed to produce another wild driving performance and it seems unlikely he can overcome that handicap at such a difficult and at times narrow course, where water is very much in play.
Singh Brar, though bigger odds in places, might be the more realistic option. He was 15th in the ISPS Handa Championship, also making his first cut of the year, and that means his record in Spain at this level now reads 15-23-15. He was eighth over in Portugal to save his card in 2019, while his sole Challenge Tour win came at a fiddly, tree-lined course in France.
Having shown signs he was ready to fulfil his potential before injury struck in 2020 (top-20s in three Rolex Series events), he might be ready to climb the rankings now and three good rounds in four under similar conditions certainly looks like a step in the right direction.
Back to reality, and I want to return to that Le Golf National link with two arrow-straight drivers.
When you look at past leaderboards here, there's no doubt that some old-fashioned, fairways-first golfers with sharp short-games have been particularly well suited to PGA Catalunya. Jimenez, Levet and Davis all apply, but so too do some of those just behind them, and the 2014 leaderboard featured Joost Luiten, Richie Ramsay, Max Kieffer, Felipe Aguilar, Alejandro Canizares, Darren Fichardt, plus many more accurate types.
Luiten, Ramsay and Canizares might all go well enough but I like the look of MIKE LORENZO VERA, who was 23rd last week and could build on that.
Lorenzo Vera had caught my eye before the Kenya Open only to disappoint there, but he suggested it may have been a forgivable blip with his iron play up at altitude by hitting the ball really well on his return to action, ranking third in fairways, second in greens, sixth in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 20th in strokes-gained approach.
Those final two rankings are not totally trustworthy but the traditional accuracy stats are and they provide a nice platform for a player who is typically known to boast a fine short-game, putter in particular having been a weapon since he re-established himself at this level.
That process actually began here at PGA Catalunya back in 2013, as Lorenzo Vera described to National Club Golfer.
"We are at the Q School final in 2013, and I am playing my last hole of the fourth round at PGA Catalunya. I’m one shot inside the cut. I’ve hit the fairway and the heart of the green, and I have a putt with a big angled break. I told my brother that I was going to chip it over the break with my sand wedge, and he tells me ‘No, you’re going to putt that four metres right.’
"So we get into this argument and he says, ‘I’m going to snap your sand wedge so just take the putter.’ I hit the putt to one foot from the hole and made par to make the cut.
"I got so lucky because I was only first reserve for Final Stage. But Miles Tunnicliff pulled out and I got in. Then I made the cut and I got a category on the Challenge Tour and started to rebuild. That was crazy but you need a bit of luck."
Perhaps that's why Lorenzo Vera is now a PGA Catalunya ambassador, spending plenty of time here practicing, and he's played nicely in those 2009 and 2014 editions of the Open de Espana to finish 24th and 38th. Since then, we've seen him build up a really strong record at Crans and his Le Golf National form stands out too, with third, sixth and 16th among his last four starts there.
As with last week, there should definitely be room for shorter hitters on this leaderboard and Lorenzo Vera looks a good each-way bet at 100/1 and upwards, as the sort of heart-on-sleeve character who really ought to benefit for a return to a place which has played an important role in his career.
Edoardo Molinari and Connor Syme also deserve a mention but I'll finish off with FABRIZIO ZANOTTI who, unlike Molinari, has hinted that the putting issues which dogged him last year might just be under control.
If that's the case, the Paraguayan can threaten to win again as he's been playing well for some time now, his last missed cut coming 50 weeks ago. Since then his best result came when fourth at Valderrama and he's another with form in the Open de France, where he's previously finished ninth, has led at halfway, and is on a run of seven cuts made in succession.
Crucially, his putting has improved this season and while his long-game hasn't quite caught fire, that's probably because he's played two Rolex Series events on long courses, two more unsuitable ones at Al Hamra, and then another two on long, soft courses in South Africa. Not once in six starts has he really had his conditions.
He does now, having come through Qualifying School here in 2008 and then finished runner-up to Levet a year later, his 13-under weekend the best in the field by an enormous six strokes. Zanotti also started well in 2014 before a difficult second round, and I feel certain he'll like his chances back at a course he knows, having been making his debut at four of the five he's played so far this year.
Unlike my other selections he is returning from a break but he was 14th in the equivalent event last year and seventh in the 2020 Irish Open, the first time he could join what was the European Tour when it returned that summer. In 2019, his T2 in Oman came after four weeks away, again having started the year playing longer-than-ideal courses, he was fifth after a month away in 2017, and fourth after six weeks away in both 2016 and 2015.
The key with a player like Zanotti is focusing on the handful of suitable events on the calendar and working backwards. If he returns here with his iron play as sharp as it was throughout 2021, he looks to have a big chance at a nice price.
Posted at 1835 BST on 25/04/22
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