Alex Smalley and Alex Noren head Ben Coley's staking plan for the Bermuda Championship, as our expert searches for a third PGA Tour winner in his last four previews.
Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship
2pts e.w. Alex Noren at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Alex Smalley at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Zecheng Dou at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Peter Malnati at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Austin Cook at 125/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kelly Kraft at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
After Sunday's remarkable victory for Erik van Rooyen it's very difficult to find the right pitch when discussing the importance of the final two events of the PGA Tour's new FedEx Cup Fall venture, but in a purely sporting sense there is a lot at stake over the next fortnight.
Almost every player in the field for the Bermuda Championship, from favourite Adam Scott right down to those fighting desperately for their careers, has something to play for. Scott for instance isn't currently in the field for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, one of his favourite haunts. Patton Kizzire is just outside the FedEx Cup bubble, his status at risk. Camilo Villegas needs yet more if he's to earn back his card.
Only Brendon Todd, a former winner here, has nothing much beyond a repeat to worry about and perhaps that will benefit him. Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa have all taken advantage of what have generally been slightly weaker fields, free for the most part from any distractions. Todd, whose accuracy and deadly putting make for a good match here at Port Royal, would be another relatively short-priced winner at a time of year which was once known for its propensity to throw up something unexpected.
Of course, Todd isn't in the same bracket as the other three and while he's perhaps better suited to this sub-7,000 course than Scott, I can't argue that he's knocking value in what's a wide-open market. Yes, accuracy off the tee has generally held sway over power, and all four champions could be classed as excellent putters – Todd and Brian Gay in particular – but he's not a player I want to be backing when contesting favouritism.
Such circumstances level the playing field but it should also be noted how weak this field is towards the tail. An entire football team's worth of players are priced up between 16/1 and 33s, but once we venture into three-figure prices you'll be hard pressed to find someone who has operated at a high level any time recently, and without those wide expanses of last week's event in Mexico to aim at, this probably isn't as open as at first it may appear.
Finding the right one among those 11 or so players at the front of the market is the challenge and I had it between two who share a first name, ALEX NOREN and ALEX SMALLEY, both for my money boasting higher ceilings than Todd.
Noren is a proven coastal golfer who could've won both or either of the Dunhill Links and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links over the past year or so. His silky short-game has always set him up to deal with courses like this one and he played well at Port Royal on his sole visit in 2019.
Four years on and he'll need to win this title if he's to make the jump into the top 60 on the FedEx Cup, earning a return to Riviera where he too has been successful in the past. Were he to do it, the 41-year-old would also find himself back in the world's top 50, which he returned to this time last year after a frustrating few years following his one and only Ryder Cup appearance.
Part of the reason Noren is on the fringes of the elite again is that he was third in the Shriners two starts ago, despite his usually reliable putter letting him down. Speaking there about his goals for this part of the season, having decided to focus on the PGA Tour, he revealed that his improved long-game is the result of reuniting with a former coach and the restoration of his stock fade.
That shot helped him to 10 DP World Tour titles, at least half of them on exposed courses, and we know that his short-game remains dynamite but for the odd blip which everyone suffers. Noren ranks third in this field in strokes-gained around-the-green and, despite a mishap in Las Vegas, remains one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.
Accuracy off the tee has never been his strong suit but if he can keep the ball in play, likely helped rather than hindered by the forecast weekend wind, then he has all the tools to win his first PGA Tour title and begin the final chapter of what's already been a fabulous career.
Smalley is still in the formative stages of his but has already shown a fondness for this course, finishing 12th and 11th in two visits.
Notably, both followed slow starts to the season whereas this new format has allowed him to take more time off, returning with an encouraging 16th place in the Sanderson Farms before a second-round 64 in the Shriners was just enough to make the weekend there.
Although it was an ultimately underwhelming performance at Summerlin, Smalley kept to his plan to stay fresh for the final two events of the season, both by the coast, both featuring bermuda greens. So far, these are conditions in which he's looked particularly comfortable and the latter makes sense given his golfing education came in North Carolina.
We've seen him go close in the Dominican Republic and the RSM Classic, while top-10s in Scotland and Mexico further underline his credentials here, and at 58th in the FedEx Cup Fall standings he's fancied to go ahead and secure some lucrative invites for the first part of next season.
50/1 and bigger will Dou...
Kramer Hickok and Ryan Palmer both made some appeal, the former having shown a few good signs lately and spoken positively about his game in Mexico, where Palmer also boosted his prospects of creeping inside that top 125. They're currently side-by-side at 135th and 136th respectively and are two of the likelier candidates for a retrieval mission at a course Hickok likes, and Palmer ought to.
Preference though is for ZECHENG DOU, a few places higher in 127th.
The Chinese youngster has missed back-to-back cuts to fall the wrong side of the cut-off but on both occasions showed promise with a second-round 68. Before that he was 12th in the Sanderson Farms, and throughout the three starts he's made this Fall for which we've strokes-gained data, his long-game has continued to fire.
Now, it's not necessarily ideal to be siding with a player whose weakness can be the putter in an event like this, but he shot back-to-back 65s on debut last year and hadn't been playing well in the run-up. While blown off course in round three, Zecheng fought back on Sunday for his best finish of those opening tournaments and this therefore might be his best chance to take care of business.
Notably, he did win in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour and almost made it a double, losing a play-off out there last year, while I quite like the fact his best PGA Tour effort came at Craig Ranch which plays more similarly to this than you might expect given their respective appearances and locations.
Zecheng certainly has class and potential at the age of 26 and rain in the run-up to this event is enough to encourage me that players of his skill set might be more comfortable than has been the case during firmer, windier renewals. He's worth backing at prices north of 50/1.
While Zecheng will have to prove that he can putt well enough to contend in what should be a shootout before the wind whips up, PETER MALNATI boasts one of the best short-games around and it's why this is one of a handful of suitable events for him.
He's shown as much with finishes of 21st and seventh across two visits, leading following an opening 63 in 2020 and again hitting the front a year later before late mistake on Saturday ultimately kept him just on the periphery of the action in Sunday's final round.
Malnati ranks 122nd in the FedEx Cup and therefore faces a huge fortnight, but fortunately for him it's played across two tournaments that he can handle, as a short and not always straight driver who depends so much on taking opportunities when they do arrive thanks to quality wedges and a dynamite short-game.
There are concerns around his overall form, but he has made three cuts in four during this part of the season, similar to how he was playing prior to his last start in Bermuda, and I think he might just be the sort of character to rise to the occasion with his back against the wall.
Malnati has spoken passionately about how much he values his privileged position on the PGA Tour and can produce a popular storyline by contending at a course made for his game, which so few are. That's why his form can look patchy, and why I'm happy taking a chance at 66/1 and upwards.
Cooking up a storm?
By contrast I'm not sure Port Royal is a great fit for Austin Smotherman despite his lightning start when last here so while I've a lot of time for a player who is a quality ball-striker, I'll keep moving down the odds board for the final couple of selections.
First is AUSTIN COOK, who flew home last week for his first PGA Tour top-10 in three years, the last coming when runner-up in the Shriners, another Fall event.
With his sole win to date coming in the RSM Classic, this is his time of year and while form figures of MC-44 might not prove it, I suspect this is also his course. Cook is a limited driver whose iron play and short-game underpin his best golf, hence that success at Sea Island as a rookie.
At 25th in driving accuracy and 18th in strokes-gained around-the-green he has some of the attributes needed in Bermuda and while the putter hasn't behaved for much of the year, he's been better in that department since returning from a break in mid-September.
Cook's approach play would be of greater concern but he hit 16 greens on his way to a final-round 62 on Sunday and I'm hopeful he can build on that as he looks to at least move inside the top 150 and secure conditional status for 2024.
Wesley Bryan made more appeal than he perhaps should've under what are suitable conditions, but my final selection is KELLY KRAFT.
This former US Amateur champion didn't think much of last week's course but still made the cut to make it five cheques in a row, during which time 19 of his 20 rounds have been par or better.
Clearly, the 35-year-old has found something to work with and his iron play has at times been excellent, enough to rank third and first in back-to-back events before last week's shootout in Mexico, where strokes-gained data was not available.
That's not to say Kraft continued to operate at such a high level with his approaches but it doesn't look form to dwell on anyway, and as one of the most accurate drivers in the field, with coastal form including a high-class effort at Pebble Beach, he should be better around Port Royal.
Granted, Kraft missed the cut here in 2020 but he barely played due to injury that year and it wasn't until 2022 that he pieced his game back together, albeit never reaching the heights that were once promised when he took down Patrick Cantlay to cause a big surprise in the aforementioned US Am.
Chances are he never will, but this is the best he's played in a long time and as a generally good putter, whose peak form during the spring came by the sea at the Corales Puntacana, he looks a live player at big prices. As with Cook, anything three-figures rates value.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 07/11/23
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