After another near miss on the DP World Tour last week, Ben Coley picks out five selections for the Betfred British Masters.
Golf betting tips: Betfred British Masters
3pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 55/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Jorge Campillo at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 175/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
At a time when the DP World Tour is under serious threat, the re-emergence of the Belfry as a regular part of the schedule has no doubt been a source of comfort to many. The Brabazon might not be the best course in the United Kingdom, far from it in fact, but it's among the most recognisable, and as a four-time Ryder Cup venue there is history and heritage running through it.
Not that such things matter much when it comes to attracting star names, whose focus is on the PGA Championship in a fortnight. Scheduling and a relatively modest purse means that British Masters host Danny Willett has only really been able to call upon Lee Westwood to add a sprinkling of stardust, with the newly-minted Adri Arnaus officially the highest-ranked player on show having climbed to 52nd in the world.
Arnaus now has his major debut to look forward to, but for a handful in this field that remains a key goal. As of Monday, the top 100 ought to all be receiving invites to Southern Hills and it's notable that so many are within sight of that target, with Daniel van Tonder, Justin Harding, Laurie Canter, Ryan Fox, Sam Horsfield, Adrian Meronk, Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Smith, Thomas Detry, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Hennie du Plessis all ranked between 104th and 126th as of now.
That's a lot of players with big incentive and most of them feature towards the top of the betting, but it's ROBERT MACINTYRE who looks the man to beat and I'm really keen on his chances.
This time last year, MacIntyre was priced up between 12/1 and 14/1 after a good Masters. The strength of field back then was identical and I felt the Scot was a little short in the betting, something I feared I might well regret when he birdied the first five holes in round two and ended it tied for the lead.
Still joint-favourite heading into the final round before fading slightly to finish eighth, MacIntyre coped well with the spotlight and the fact he was making his debut at the Belfry. It was the first time he'd been the top-ranked player and clear favourite coming into a DP World Tour event and he was very much the focus of conversation as his seemingly inexorable rise continued with that Masters 12th.
One year on and it's interesting that he feels his game is actually in a better place, something he mentioned in the run-up to the Masters where this time he didn't putt as well but hit the ball similarly for a good share of 23rd. Since then he's carried the load as he and Martin Laird failed to capitalise on a strong start to the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, MacIntyre making a hole-in-one during the first round before they faded in the foursomes.
Laird was really poor there and my view of MacIntyre's play remains positive. Numbers-wise it reads 13-9-15-35-35-23 since a low-key start to 2022 while nursing an injury, but remember some of these were in fields of the highest class, which sets him apart from most of the names listed above. Fifteenth place at Riviera for instance is equivalent to finishing around fifth in last week's Catalunya Championship from a ranking-points perspective. I would mark it higher still.
Notwithstanding the fact that MacIntyre has shown an impressive ability to raise his game under the toughest conditions and in the best fields, I'm really not sure any one of his young rivals at the head of this market would've got close to the form he displayed there, nor for the most part at the Match Play and in the Masters, performances which are easy to underestimate versus the winning form displayed by the impressive Arnaus.
So while I'm a huge admirer of Meronk, given the choice I have to go for the player with the DP World Tour win to his name, the one who has already at a young age made the world's top 50, the one who many felt would be a Ryder Cup rookie last year. Out of sight means out of mind and I think the market is this time guilty of underestimating a player who finished 13th and ninth on his last two starts this side of the pond.
As is the case on the PGA Tour, there's no denying that there are some rock-solid alternatives at the head of the market. Meronk was my player to follow for 2022 and is justifying that faith virtually every week, while Jordan Smith's return in Spain promised plenty, too. He's a fabulous ball-striker whose putting appears improved, and the Belfry has always been the domain of those who hit fairways and greens for fun.
New age stats also tell us a lot about what this parkland par 72 demands. Everyone in last year's top 10 gained strokes off the tee, that category as important here as it was anywhere bar Eichenried, a correlating course in Germany where Viktor Hovland beat Martin Kaymer later in the season. Neither demanded much from short-games, hence those two there and Meronk here, three of the worst chippers you'll see among touring professionals.
And Richard Bland, who famously won a play-off, managed to finally get off the mark despite losing strokes on the greens. Runner-up Guido Migliozzi was only a shade better than average, and my big-priced contender, Edoardo Molinari, finished eighth while ranked 68th in putting, producing a tee-to-green display just about on a par with the winner.
With this in mind Smith is just about the most solid one but I'd be more inclined to take on board bigger risk for a bigger talent in Sam Horsfield, but for the fact he'd been absent for a long time before the Zurich Classic. Horsfield hit the ball really well there, but there must surely be a risk this injury-plagued youngster is just a little undercooked.
Rasmus Hojgaard can outperform his brother Nicolai at a course where he won in 2020 and is also respected, but I'm happy enough to cast the net a little wider and perhaps be a bit contrarian by selecting VICTOR PEREZ.
A popular pick in the Catalunya Championship for very good reasons, the Frenchman failed to kick on from his eighth place a week earlier and narrowly missed the cut. However, he was on course to make it until a bogey-bogey finish and, with his iron play remaining strong, it could just pay to take a forgiving approach.
Like MacIntyre, Perez is a classy young player who has won at this level and spent last year battling to make the Ryder Cup side. Now able to draw a line under that and forced to focus more on the DP World Tour than had been the case, he shouldn't take long to re-establish himself as one of the best operators around and that process will speed up if he continues to putt as well as he has been.
An accurate driver who hits a lot of greens, the Belfry is a good course for a player whose first win came in cool Scottish conditions, and that's despite a missed cut on his first look. That came in 2020, and Perez was making his return to Europe and first DP World Tour start post-pandemic having been lightly-raced at a higher level in the US.
Again, he failed to make the weekend only narrowly and along with last week's effort that forces his price out at a course I suspect suits him more. His win in the Dunhill Links came after a run of missed cuts as have several other high-profile efforts, and his two best formlines came in the UK courtesy of his breakthrough victory and then a runner-up finish in the BMW PGA Championship.
Can Aussie continue his strong run?
The player I've gone back and forth over most this week is Ross Fisher, whose long-game is very much restored. Seventh here in 2008, it's encouraging that he's made both cuts since the Belfry's return as he was in poor form at the time, didn't drive the ball well, yet still managed to score at a course he likes.
Second to Ryan Fox when putting poorly at Al Hamra, Fisher is relentlessly pounding greens at the moment and seems to have been given a new lease of life since forced to use a career money exemption to remain on the circuit. He's got four top-20s to his name in his last nine starts so there's lots to like, but I keep coming back to that driver. It's always been his weapon, and the Belfry doesn't necessarily call for it all that often.
Instead and at a similar price, I like the look of JASON SCRIVENER.
Like Perez, he missed the cut on his sole previous appearance at the Belfry but there are similar excuses. In Scrivener's case, he arrived here last May for his first start since February, a rust-shedding exercise for the PGA, and he played OK following an understandably slow start.
This time he's been far more active and 9-72-64-27-10-18 is solid form, 27th place in Qatar promising more before a welcome 10th in the Zurich Classic alongside Jason Day. From there he came back to Europe and got better with each round to finish 18th in Spain last week, making just one bogey across the final 36 holes at a very tricky course.
Scrivener ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green in the process, his best return since capping a run of top-10 finishes at last summer's Irish Open, played on a similar parkland course. His season-long stats of 20th for greens hit, 37th for strokes-gained approach and 24th for driving accuracy make him a classic Belfry type on paper, and any course where power isn't a prerequisite brings him into the conversation the way he's been playing.
Similar comments apply to JORGE CAMPILLO, who could continue a golden run for Spain following wins for Pablo Larrazabal, Adri Arnaus and Jon Rahm.
Campillo was seventh here in 2020, hitting his irons well, before missing the cut on the number a year ago. That however requires context, as he'd missed the cut in seven of his nine starts from January through to May and had only once finished better than 60th, so he was in hopeless form.
Now, he's made nine cuts in 10, his accuracy has returned, and in three of his last six starts he's been in the top-five for ball-striking. Third in greens hit last week, his strokes-gained stats were also strong (19th off-the-tee, 29th approach) and that's despite Catalunya definitely favouring longer drivers than him.
Third place at Eichenried last year is a really nice additional tie-in given that Bland had been second there in 2017 and is far from alone in playing well at both courses, and while Campillo is far from flashy he's a good player to have on-side under these conditions. Indeed both wins came when pars meant something and that's always true at the Belfry, perhaps more so given we've had a pretty dry spring in the UK.
Former winner worth chancing
Molinari could've won this for us at 250/1 last year but has been well found in the market at closer to 50s this time, whereas EDDIE PEPPERELL has (with good reason) gone the other way and now looks overpriced.
Pepperell was the 54-hole leader only to struggle on Sunday and it's notable he was a 50/1 chance, largely because he'd finished 12th in Spain the week before. Prior to that he'd offered very little from a results perspective, admitting during this event "I've been awful, to be honest", but it was clear his iron play was at last beginning to purr.
That's what he needs to compete as he's loathe to hit driver and does have a big miss in him off the tee, and it's why I see similar encouragement in his play recently. Two starts ago, again in Spain, Pepperell ranked third in strokes-gained approach and produced a confidence-building weekend to finish 15th. Last week, while missing the cut I'd say he ought to have again drawn encouragement not just from his iron play, but what he did off the tee, too.
The reason he's still on offer at 175/1 is that he'd missed six cuts in a row prior to Spain but the 2018 British Masters champion is both volatile and highly capable, especially on home soil where he's been runner-up as defending champion in this, sixth as a rookie at Wentworth, sixth again there in 2020, and 11th when leading through three rounds here last year.
Throw in runner-up finishes in Ireland and Scotland plus his famous Open sixth at Carnoustie and this two-time champion has shown time and again that he improves for home comforts. Had he not played last week I suspect 15th place in the ISPS Handa Championship would've had him on many a radar but there really wasn't anything to be concerned about in missing the cut on the number in Catalunya.
Jack Singh Brar is a 500/1 chance who might run into a top-20 for those that way inclined and that market might be the one for Richard Mansell at shorter odds, while I also considered Matthew Southgate.
Like Pepperell, he's got an Open top-10 to his name plus plenty of other strong UK form, and he showed what he could do here with a third-round 67 to climb from the cut line to 27th before eventually finishing 34th a year ago.
Subsequently second to Marcus Armitage at Green Eagle, a tough, parkland course which threw up plenty of ties with Belfry leaderboards, Southgate is a very good driver of the ball at his best and while best known for his links exploits, I'm convinced this is a really good course for him.
One top-20 finish so far this year means we do need improvement though so rather than speculate that we might get a story to rival that of Bland, or that straight-hitting Ricardo Gouveia can translate third place at the adjacent PGA course last year over to the Brabazon, I'll stick to five.
Posted at 1150 BST on 03/05/22
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