Ben Coley's golf betting tips: BMW International Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley previews the BMW International Open, where Rasmus Hojgaard can earn a place in the Ryder Cup conversation with a timely win.
Golf betting tips: BMW International Open
3pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 18/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Marcel Schneider at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Richard Mansell at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 66/1 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Frederic Lacroix at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 300/1 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
It's been USA all the way in men's golf recently, three majors and some major breaking news dominating the headlines, but the BMW International Open marks the beginning of the home stretch for European Ryder Cup hopefuls.
The likes of Adrian Meronk, Victor Perez, Yannik Paul, Antoine Rozner, Robert MacIntyre and Pablo Larrazabal are all in the mix either for qualification, selection or both, and each of this sextet is in Germany for what's a well-established DP World Tour event.
Now permanently located at Golfclub Eichenried just northeast of Munich, where Larrazabal is a two-time champion, it's one that has delivered drama each and every year so far, never more so than when an emotional Haotong Li somehow denied Thomas Pieters 12 months ago.
With Pieters among those likely to miss the Ryder Cup having joined LIV Golf, the next three months provide a massive opportunity for a collection of would-be rookies and it's going to be fascinating not only to see how each of them plays, but how they manage their schedules and avoid the temptation to chase every pot of gold.
Meronk is in pole position for now but like Perez, Larrazabal and Romain Langasque does have to travel over from California, so with MacIntyre's fitness still uncertain it's another potential Ryder Cup candidate, RASMUS HOJGAARD, who might prove the man to beat.
Hojgaard has had to be patient on the recovery trail in 2023, injury having forced him to miss the Hero Cup and allow his brother Nicolai to enhance his own reputation instead, but that patience was rewarded with third place in the KLM Open two starts ago.
It was interesting to hear him dismiss all fitness excuses there for the first time since his return and it seems he took real pleasure from scoring so well despite a wild driving display, just as it was encouraging to see his driving improve significantly one week later in the Porsche European Open, where a lowly finish was in line with all three previous starts at a brutal golf course.
It's off the tee which explains why I've remained wary of Hojgaard lately but if that department improves again then everything will be in place ahead of his return to Eichenried, a better course fit for a player who has won at the Belfry, which is a similar if slightly more demanding parkland course.
We can potentially tie the two together through Richard Bland, who almost won this event a couple of years before his emotional British Masters triumph, and Hojgaard himself has played well on both appearances here without yet getting the putter going.
Seven under-par rounds in eight have him ranked fourth in scoring among those to have played the last two editions of the BMW International Open, and having been among the best iron players on his debut he was inside the top-10 in strokes-gained off-the-tee last summer.
Ninth place in the Dubai Desert Classic is another handy pointer through Li, Bland and Viktor Hovland in particular and this looks Hojgaard's best opportunity since he had his pocket picked in Paris late last season. It's the kind he needs to take soon if he's to truly enter the Ryder Cup picture and keep the prospect of another twin tandem alive.
Compensation for Crocker?
As far as what formula works at Eichneried, that's hard to say. Fundamentally it's a tree-lined parkland course which has four reachable par-fives and two driveable par-fours, so those who excel off the tee, like Hovland and last year's runner-up, Pieters, should really be at an advantage.
Still, Li, Larrazabal, Andrea Pavan and Andres Romero are all on the roll-of-honour which paints a slightly different picture and it's certainly a course where recovery shots are possible, and where any number of birdies can be collected with good hands around the green despite a Hovland-Martin Kaymer one-two in 2021.
It is though very difficult to forecast who might dazzle in that department and I'm generally in favour of siding with the best ball-strikers, some long drivers who might be putting for eagle multiple times per round, with SEAN CROCKER one such player.
Crocker's troublesome putter has cost him a crack at this title over the last couple of years and he was the second-best ball-striker in the field in 2022, enough to suggest that this is a really good course for him.
He does tie in with a couple of those past champions, too, having gone really close in Prague where Pavan won his first DP World Tour title, and in Switzerland where Romero has a pair of top-10s including a play-off defeat in 2019.
Crocker's top-10 finish at Mount Juliet in Ireland is another form line I like and I'd certainly have Eichenried down as more suitable than Ullna, a fiddly course in Sweden where he chased home the straight-hitting Dale Whitnell two weeks ago.
Considering Crocker was eight shots behind Whitnell after 18 holes, rounds of 67-64-65 to be beaten by three represented by some way the best golf in the field over the final 54 and there had been a few signs, especially in Belgium and the Netherlands, that his game was coming around following some fitness problems.
The big issue is that he did rely on a hot putting week there and it's a near certainty that he won't hole as many this time around, however we can take heart from the fact that he's kept on playing well after each of his previous three near-misses at this level, finishing 10th, 22nd and fourth in subsequent starts
When his win came it was at a course where he'd hit the ball well enough to win on his previous visit and that's very much the case here in Munich, so at a big price I'm more than happy chancing one of the best ball-strikers on the circuit.
That description also applies to RICHARD MANSELL, whose flying finishes in each of his last two starts suggest a return to his very best isn't far away.
Mansell is a serious player who looked like he might break through in the Dunhill Links last season and has played well throughout this one, his only weekend off coming in the KLM Open where he suffered one of the worst putting displays you're ever likely to see.
As with Crocker that's always something of a risk but he bounced back next time out in Germany and has been what you'd call a streaky putter, that 12-stroke turnaround from one week to the next by no means an isolated incident.
We'll need another after the putter went cold in Sweden but his approach play was exceptional there and ultimately, finishes of 29th and 32nd are indicative of a player who is close to getting everything together under the right circumstances.
That could happen here at Eichenried, where six of his eight rounds have been under-par and his driving, which has in fact been just average of late, has always powered his best golf. It seems it sets up well for him off the tee and so it should, most of his best form having come on parkland golf courses.
Finishes of third at Crans and Green Eagle, fourth at Galgorm Castle and eighth at the Belfry all offer encouragement along with a near-miss in Austria and at fifth in strokes-gained approach so far this season, he should have plenty of opportunities providing his driver does take the anticipated step forward.
Schneider can lead home contenders
Marcel Siem and Max Kieffer finished T2 in the European Open earlier this month and we typically get a strong German challenge when the DP World Tour comes to town. That's been true several times in that event as well as this one, albeit Kaymer has done most of the heavy lifting in Munich down the years.
Young amateurs Tim Wiedemeyer and Jonas Baumgartner will be ones to watch with an eye on the future, Hurly Long might be turning a corner if he can tidy up his driving and early support for Yannik Paul makes sense, but it's the all-round talents of MARCEL SCHNEIDER which appeal most this time.
Schneider has shown that he can produce the goods on home soil with two top-20s here and two top-10s at Green Eagle, and last year's effort in this event can be upgraded following a slow start – he was among those flying back over from the US Open a week earlier.
He went on to be 20th at Mount Juliet and his best form tends to be on similar courses, including when runner-up in neighbouring Austria and winning by a wide margin on the Challenge Tour in Switzerland.
Though not quite as consistent lately as he was towards the end of 2022, I like how he's fought hard to make his last two cuts and how solid his long-game looks right now, having gained strokes tee-to-green in every start since the beginning of February.
We know he can catch fire with the putter and he's brilliant around the green like a handful of former winners of this event, and as with Crocker he has top-10 finishes at Crans and in Prague to his name, too.
If home advantage looks an obvious angle where Schneider is concerned, it could also apply to in-form FREDERIC LACROIX, who went to university in Germany and honed his game here before turning professional.
Perhaps that helps to explain why he has three top-10 finishes from four starts in the country since joining the paid ranks, adding to big efforts here in the German Amateur and the Eisenhower Trophy. Sami Valimaki was involved in both and both he and Lacroix have gone well in this event already.
Lacroix finished 10th last year, gaining strokes in all departments, and he went on to play nicely at both the Belfry and Mount Juliet before narrowly failing to keep hold of full status despite a gallant top-15 finish to end the campaign in Portugal.
Back on the DP World Tour in some lower-grade events over the past six weeks, he's found form with fifth in the European Open and 12th in the Scandinavian Mixed, both times impressing with every part of his game but especially so from tee-to-green.
The 28-year-old is yet to win above Alps Tour level but I'm convinced he'd do so if playing a full season on the Challenge Tour, and the way he's hitting the ball right now there's no reason he can't make an impact here, either.
John Axelsen is another who competed in Germany as an amateur and he's beginning to deliver on his enormous potential with four strong performances in succession.
We were on board for the second of them at 500/1 and he was agonisingly close to hitting the frame in the Netherlands, before doing so here in Germany with sixth place at Green Eagle where for the first time all year, he was right in contention.
This course should suit better than Ullna, where he was far from disgraced in 32nd, but without a previous look around I'm not quite willing to chance him at a general 100/1 despite what's an increasingly solid book of form.
Worth a Schott at big odds
Andy Sullivan was my favourite bet of the week there in Sweden and at least continued to pepper flags so he certainly came under consideration, particularly having been fifth here in the past and bagged two top-10s at the Belfry, although this is certainly tougher.
Fellow Englishman Todd Clements has been catching the eye and won at the K Club last year so watch out for him along with Jeon Weong Ko, who has established himself as one of the best drivers on the circuit and might enjoy this more than recent courses.
I will sign off with a more speculative play on FREDDY SCHOTT, among the most promising young Germans and with some positive course experience having produced a fine second-round 69 to make the weekend two years ago.
Now a full DP World Tour member following his successful Challenge Tour campaign, Schott has been left behind by his friend Nick Bachem and the rest of his compatriots in what's been a good year for German golf, which continued in the Women's Amateur over the weekend.
However we saw just what he can do with a fine driving display for 14th place last time out over at Green Eagle in Hamburg, which followed a confidence-boosting fightback to make the cut in the Netherlands thanks to a 10-shot turnaround from Thursday to Friday.
Schott had been close to pulling off a similar trick in Korea but has since made three cuts in four and as one of the very best drivers in the field, there are six holes here where he can really go on the offensive in a way that just isn't possible in the European Open.
He reminds me a little bit of Axelsen in terms of finding his feet after a slow start to life at this level and I think we're ahead of the game at these prices. Hopefully he can take the small step forward that's needed and give the home fans something to shout about at a course which rewards aggressive golf.
Posted at 1900 BST on 19/06/23
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