Ben Coley's golf betting tips: BMW Championship preview and best bets
After Hideki Matsuyama put our man through the wringer before winning at 25/1 on Sunday night, find out who Ben Coley fancies for the BMW Championship.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship
3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Wyndham Clark at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 55/1 (Betfred, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The final serious event of the PGA Tour season takes place this week, as the fortunate 50 who survived the latest cut-off face a serious test of their physical and mental fortitude in the BMW Championship.
Having come through the oppressive heat and humidity of Memphis, the stars of the circuit now head into the mountains of Colorado, where the temperature will be less of a worry than thin air and a course which would take some walking were it at sea level.
As it is, Castle Pines is about 6,000 feet higher than that, and this Jack Nicklaus design is going to be a test. It's not the length (8,130 yards or about 25,000 feet, for consistency's sake), but that combination of a fortnight of physical and mental demands, together with an undulating and not straightforward course, will ask questions of this field.
I am acutely aware that talking about exhaustion in golf when we've just watched an Olympics and days after the thrilling finish of the Tour de France Femmes might seem silly, but it's absolutely valid even if it's of a different kind. There is no doubt that focus can slip at this time of year, without considering a busier schedule which ends in some of the worst conditions for playing golf.
Of course there are benefits, such as drives which fly 400 yards, and on that altitude factor we'll hear that 10 to 15 percent is the calculation. This however is a broad description and the reality is that it depends on the player, their ball flights, their spin rates, and so on. My view is that while this course won't play anything like its yardage, those who hit the ball particularly high and far should still have the best of it in the end.
As for that concentration factor, it's true that there's so much money on offer that focus should be a given. However, there's no way that Rory McIlroy was giving it everything come the weekend at Southwind, even if it hurt his FedEx Cup prospects. Those who are cut adrift early on will do really well to get everything out of the week, whatever their respective motivations. Money alone is not enough to guarantee an elite golfer's full attention.
Backing the Scheffler-Schauffele axis when we've the variable of extreme altitude is of no interest to me and I'll make last week's obvious eye-catcher, PATRICK CANTLAY, the headline selection.
Cantlay was out of it pretty much immediately after three bogeys in his first four holes, but he was one of just two players in the field to shoot 67 or better in each of the final three rounds, and his 11-under total for them was one shy of the eventual winner.
Particularly encouraging was the state of his long-game come the weekend and his irons especially, which helped him climb to 12th place despite a closing bogey.
That took his improved run dating back to the US Open to 3-5-25-12 (25th was in the Open) and Cantlay, a bit of a Playoffs specialist, has played a much lighter schedule than many: one start between the final two majors and nothing from Troon to last week, which in turn perhaps excuses his slow start when you consider that the top four had all played in Paris.
With that behind him and a level of freshness guaranteed, he looks an obvious candidate to trouble the favourites and confidence can be taken from an excellent record on Nicklaus courses, having won at Muirfield Village (twice) and Sherwood Country Club.
Cantlay also has some strong altitude form, his first professional title captured at a whopping 8,000ft in Bogota, and his records at Summerlin (1-2-2-8-2), Scottsdale (runner-up to Scheffler) and in Mexico City (sixth) all confirm that he's capable of dealing with the various calculations.
Veteran caddie Joe Lacava ought to be useful in that regard and he looks the standout bet. You can take your pick between 18/1 with eight places or 22/1 with five, and various other options in-between. Anything 16/1 and better is fine.
Some may scoff at the altitude factor but when last this course staged a PGA Tour event, it threw up a surprise winner who had gone to college in Utah. Two major champions from South Africa won it before that, both having grown up at comparable altitude, and Rich Beem was raised at 4,000ft in El Paso.
With that in mind, TONY FINAU was just about the first name on my list and I couldn't find anything to dissuade me.
Finau was born and raised in Salt Lake City and is now based in Arizona, so altitude is something he's always dealt with when playing golf. So far he's not had many chances to put it to use on the PGA Tour, but he was fifth at home in Utah at a lower level, has a strong record in Vegas, and should've won in Phoenix.
Few will be as well-versed in making the required adjustments and as for the point I made about big-hitters still being at an advantage, he obviously ticks that box and then some. Perhaps he'll be tempted into bringing out the full driver swing we're yet to see in competition.
I doubt it, but I am hopeful he'll drive the ball better than he has been doing. This is where a closer look at the schedule offers some mitigation, as from River Highlands to Troon and onto Southwind, he's not really been able to open his shoulders. When he was able to in Houston and at Augusta in the spring, he was his usual, dominant self off the tee.
Back in that form with driver he'd be a big threat and I do like what we've seen from his putting of late. Finau had gained strokes five starts running before ranking 37th of 70 in Memphis, where 16th place overall was his second-best result in seven appearances at a course whose bermuda greens have often troubled him.
With these surfaces more familiar, Finau might just be able to win and secure automatic Presidents Cup qualification. He's been playing very nicely for a few months now and when it comes to taking on elite fields, the move up into the mountains could make all the difference.
Ludvig Aberg captured the European Masters at Crans last year and could leave behind a disappointing display in Memphis, where Tommy Fleetwood was the best player from tee-to-green but the worst putter. Already we've seen several men's and women's medalists from Paris come out and shine and I hope Fleetwood is able to do the same over the next fortnight and all the way through to Wentworth.
However, WYNDHAM CLARK is preferred to both those Europeans.
Talk of Clark's demise, which peaked during round one of the Olympic Games, was hugely overplayed as he's had a very good season by most measurements. In fact, his strokes-gained total figure is almost identical to last year's and while this isn't adjusted to account for field strength, he's played a slightly stronger schedule this time.
With a win to his name at Pebble Beach, second at Bay Hill and again at Sawgrass, third in another Signature Event at Harbour Town, ninth and 10th in two more between majors, 14th after a nightmare start in Paris and ninth last week, there really aren't many players with whom he'd swap results.
Clark did everything well over the weekend to climb to seventh at Southwind and like Finau, he'll be more comfortable than most now we head to Colorado as this is his home state – he was born in Denver. Not only that, he played this course as a child, was here to watch The International, the PGA Tour event which ended in 2006, and has been back regularly since making his name as a professional.
"For me this is so special, to be in front of you guys and ultimately play in front of my home crowd at a course I grew up playing, so I'm super excited," Clark said.
"I actually sat on the 9th green, and I remember watching David Duval and Retief Goosen and Ernie Els at the time being some of the best players in the world. That's when I knew I wanted to do what they did, and that's 20 years ago.
"I've been very involved in golf in Colorado, specifically at this event and this venue. I'm so excited to be able to play in front of the home crowd. Hopefully it would be a dream come true, been praying a lot about it and manifesting that maybe I would be the champion."
His knowledge of the course and the way he's playing make Clark a prime candidate to do what Hideki Matsuyama did and double his tally of big-event wins in 2024.
Aussie's Day in the sun?
Among the sub-plots are the cut-off for the TOUR Championship and the end of Presidents Cup qualifying, and I did wonder if Taylor Pendrith might take care of both. He's in-form, he has two top-fives from two previous starts in Colorado, and he has a job to do from 27th in the FedEx Cup and 13th in the Presidents Cup standings.
My worry would be he's not always been great under the gun and that's a lot to cope with when one bad week could cost you two massive goals, so I'll revert to the proven class of JASON DAY instead.
Day's Southwind record is modest so 22nd last week was fine, and it was encouraging to see him produce his best driving display since March. With two of his best approach-play performances since then having come during his last three starts, the Australian's long-game looks good.
Around the green he was uncharacteristically poor but that could flip in a heartbeat and with the putter purring, he looks like being a key man for the International side, captained this year by Mike Weir and one for which he's as good as qualified.
Before then, Day has a bit of work to do from 25th in the FedEx Cup but this former major champion and world number one can deal with that, and I do like the fact he's won at a Nicklaus-designed course before and at altitude too, albeit it was in the WGC Match Play.
Performances such as fifth in Phoenix, fourth at both Summerlin and the Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village and even 11th at Montreux all bode well (the latter is a good guide which is hard to make use of given not many in this field have played it) and his poor effort here way back in 2006 is obviously not a concern.
Day looks overpriced to me at 50/1 and above, as one of those you could see standing up to the Scheffler or indeed Schauffele threat should it predictably emerge.
Posted at 1000 BST on 20/08/24
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