Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Black Desert Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley is keeping stakes small and speculative in the Black Desert Championship, as the PGA Tour heads to a new venue in Utah.
Golf betting tips: Black Desert Championship
1.5pts e.w. Alex Smalley at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Pierceson Coody at 90/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Garrick Higgo at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tom Whitney at 400/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
"Welcome to Black Desert Resort, where every golfer's dream becomes a reality. This premier golf destination is not just another course; it's an experience like no other."
I take issue with the idea that everything at Black Desert is dream-like when the appendix to the tournament guide lists the following wildlife on course: snakes, bobcats, coyotes, rabbits, road runners, and 'chuckwalla'. At least one of those sounds more like the stuff of nightmares to me, although not quite as scary as the money thrown at agencies to make sentences like the opening one. We truly are doomed as a species.
Still, there's no denying that Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, home of the Black Desert Championship, looks stunning, snakes or no snakes. Hopefully the broadcast is able to capture its beauty (and absolutely definitely not any snakes) during what's a #brand new PGA Tour event, where the battle for starts in 2025's early-season Signature Events continues, as well as the scramble for what might be the final ever set of top-125 PGA Tour cards.
The course, designed by Tom Weiskopf, is of its surroundings: desert in style, not especially long at 7,371 yards, and set to play shorter still at 3,000ft above sea level. Perhaps the most notable feature is that along with three par-fives we have two driveable par-fours and with fairways for the most part generous, my impression – and it can be no more than that – is that strong drivers should be at an advantage, with five cheap birdies potentially on offer.
It's possible there are some parallels with Scottsdale, another Weiskopf design in the desert, and we might see low scoring in line with the Byron Nelson held at Craig Ranch, which fits the same description. Unfortunately though, I thought the best form clues might come from the 2021 CJ Cup at The Summit Club and the Hero Challenge at Albany, and there aren't many in this field who played in either of those.
Tony Finau has and with some success, but the hometown hero-cum-villain is #content to sit this one out. The ongoing controversy surrounding a financial dispute which saw family members and former business associates stage a protest outside his home course earlier this summer has nothing to do with that, I'm sure.
In his absence, the man who took three putts on the 72nd hole of the Sanderson Farms Championship when one would've won him the title is favourite. That of course is Keith Mitchell, who I felt was unduly hard on himself when discussing his failure to win a second PGA Tour title on Saturday night. Yes, Saturday, before he lived up to his own billing on Sunday. It will be some achievement to go and put that right days later in Utah.
It will be some achievement to land on the winner of this, too, because so much has to be taken on trust. A new course, a weak field, likely low scoring, a heavy hose of luck when it comes to what lie you get if you do miss a fairway... these are all factors which bring with them volatility, and that's before we get to altitude. Remember how Scottie Scheffler played in the BMW Championship in Colorado, where Keegan Bradley caused an upset? These conditions are not common on the PGA Tour.
They are more so on the Korn Ferry Tour and you can put together a case for battlefield graduate Matt McCarty, whose three wins during a golden summer included one in Boise, not long after rounds of 62 and 61 in Utah. McCarty is from Arizona so these conditions ought to be more familiar than those of the Sanderson Farms, where he faded following a good start, and if his lack of distance isn't a handicap he can do better.
But it's another left-hander, GARRICK HIGGO, who kicks off a largely speculative staking plan.
Higgo won two shootouts on the DP World Tour back in 2021, shooting 25- and 27-under, and both came at new courses which hadn't seen top-level golf. He then did something similar to capture the Palmetto Championship for his PGA Tour breakthrough, likely benefiting from the fact that Congaree was new to almost everyone in the field.
Perhaps he can do something similar here at a course almost nobody here has played before, as he definitely has the tools for a shootout where aggressive golf is rewarded, being a long, strong driver whose putter can light up.
The reason he's been eased out to 150/1 from 80-100 last week is that he missed the cut after a shocking start, but Friday's five-under 67 was much more like it. Higgo gained strokes in all departments and was the fifth-best driver in the field, missing good chances at the final two holes when still in with a chance of making the weekend.
Prior to that he'd been an improved 26th at Silverado, holing plenty, and it's just possible that he enjoys heading back to the west coast and playing golf at altitude. Born in Johannesburg, Higgo spent a year at UNLV before turning professional and has been 11th in the AmEx in California, while he was a solid 21st on his debut in the high-class Phoenix Open.
With a couple of good efforts in the DP World Tour Championship to his name, Higgo has an encouraging record in the desert and I don't mind taking a chance at three-figure prices, even if his ongoing work with coach Sean Foley may need a few more months to bed in.
Big chance for Smalley
Foley also works with Cameron Champ, the best driver on the PGA Tour and one of last week's selections along with Seamus Power. Champ missed the cut narrowly, driving it to his usual high standards, whereas Power missed a short putt for a top-10 finish and showed plenty of promise. Both were considered again and Champ has won at altitude before, while I'd probably have Power as a marginal favourite ahead of Mitchell.
That though reflects my belief that Mitchell is a bit too short rather than Power looking significantly overpriced and with both Kurt Kitayama and Chris Kirk returning from breaks, I can't see a bet among the favourites. Harry Hall was the only other who appealed through his three low-scoring wins, form at Summerlin, and base at altitude in Las Vegas, but his driving is a negative and 45/1 is not quite big enough.
Hopefully Patrick Rodgers wins and we can all get on with our lives.
I am though willing to chance ALEX SMALLEY, who I rate highly.
He charged through the field to finish fifth at the Sanderson Farms on Sunday, revealing along the way that he is raising money for the ongoing hurricane relief efforts which have badly affected his community in North Carolina and many, many others.
Whenever we side with a player who produced that kind of eye-catching finish we're going to be taking a shorter price, but Smalley has often backed up one performance with another, or close to it, and his ceiling is higher than most.
In 2022, he followed a staying-on fourth place with fifth a week later, his runner-up finish in the John Deere came shortly after a top-10 at the Travelers, and earlier this year he went 6-13-20 across three solo starts, then picked up again in July before a disappointing end to the campaign in his home event at the Wyndham Championship.
First both off the tee and with his approaches on Sunday and very much one of the best drivers in this field when firing, Smalley, whose best golf has come under low-scoring conditions, is a bet at upwards of 40/1.
At 116th in FedEx Cup points, Smalley is now on the verge of keeping his card for 2025 and I did wonder whether Chesson Hadley might join him soon. Hadley has more experience than just about anyone here when it comes to playing under this kind of pressure and has generally come out on the right side of it over the years, often salvaging things in the final event of the season.
With a strong desert record featuring top-10s in Phoenix, at the Barracuda, the Shriners and the Texas Open, and with his blend of power and putting perhaps a good formula, he's an interesting 80/1 shot but generally finds a way to undo the good work. I can't drum up much enthusiasm for him despite those potential desert pointers.
While mentioning a couple of last week's selections earlier on, the name PIERCESON COODY was omitted, but he's the one I was most interested in this time and like Hadley, there's plenty to play for from 127th in FedEx Cup points.
Coody missed the cut in Jackson, the first time he's done that since May, but his long-game was good and rounds of 72-69 were certainly no disaster even if he's undeniably cooled a little since losing a play-off for the driver-heavy, low-scoring ISCO Championship five starts ago.
Still, he's long off the tee and can putt the lights out, he's a three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner from fewer than 40 starts on the second-tier circuit, and top-10 finishes from both previous visits to Utah give us something to work with in that department, too.
Bar Michael Thorbjornsen there's probably nobody in this field with quite his potential and at prices bigger than 66/1 across the board, I'm happy to give him another try in this lowly company. Suffice to say not many in this field have a pair of top-fives to their names since May and a missed cut in Jackson isn't anything to dwell on.
Whitney who, son?
Finally, I think there's a fun case for TOM WHITNEY and at 250/1 and upwards, perhaps he can give us a run for our money.
That case is based around his experiences at altitude, from the obvious to those less so. Obvious is where he was born: South Lake Tahoe, which is around 5,000ft above sea level. Less obvious is that while serving in the US Air Force he was based in Colorado, where he would practice as often as possible at a nearby club in Fort Collins.
Altitude then isn't going to be an excuse and with his last top-10 finish having come in Boise last year, I'd argue it's a likely positive. Some won't cope with the calculations and the feel that's needed to land on the right number, but perhaps he will.
The second positive is that he is one of the stronger ball-strikers in the field starting from the tee, where he ranks 79th on the PGA Tour this season. His iron play is better still, enough to rank 38th (20th among this lot) so as far as the long-game goes he's a lot better than his odds.
Those odds and his poor sequence of results are essentially down his short-game which has been very poor at times but it was better in the Procore two starts ago, so back on this side of the US, where he produced a season's-best 13th at Torrey Pines, I'm willing to side with him.
Others of note include Weiskopf specialist (I'm not sure this is really a thing but I've written it now) KH Lee, whose form is patchy. The best of it is plenty good enough, particularly those two wins in shootouts at Craig Ranch, and he's shown a bit more lately after a troubling spell of missed cuts and withdrawals. But for a prolonged run of poor iron play, he might have made the staking plan with the Presidents Cup perhaps serving as inspiration.
It's interesting and a bit surprising that Ryo Hisatsune is here rather than defending his title in France and he could go some way to justifying that decision, while Kevin Chappell was also on my radar at around 125/1 (winner in the desert, making cuts lately, from California, some form at altitude).
When you're writing a sentence like that in the year 2024, enough is enough.
Posted at 1100 BST on 08/10/24
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