Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley has put up two winners in his last three PGA Tour previews, and our man is backing namesake Ben Kohles to go well in Bermuda.
Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship
2pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 35/1 (Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Greyson Sigg at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Ben Kohles at 60/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chesson Hadley at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Dylan Wu at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tyson Alexander at 350/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
"It almost feels like a putting contest, at least these first two rounds."
That's a quote from Ben Griffin during the 2022 Bermuda Championship and it proved achingly prescient. Griffin kept holing the putts until finding himself well clear of the field deep into Sunday, and then he played the final seven holes of the tournament in six-over to lose by just two.
In the end, putting might sometimes separate players, but you've got to get to the end first. Griffin couldn't. Yet whoever does emerge victorious in this year's edition will no doubt have holed putt after putt, just like every other champion so far in an event which began in 2019. The roll-of-honour is unequivocal in that sense, featuring as it does Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, Lucas Herbert, Seamus Power, and Camilo Villegas.
All of these players referred to how well they'd been rolling it and their performances say as much about what you don't really need to be good at, which is driving the golf ball. At little more than 6,800 yards and with all of its par-fives reachable for everyone, Port Royal is a short, easy course when it comes to getting the ball away. It's afterwards that counts: wedge after wedge, putt after putt (ideally from one hole to the next).
This might therefore be a good demonstration of how two courses can be so very different yet demand the same things. Villegas had been second in Mexico a week earlier, at a wider, longer course where you simply have to keep thrashing your driver. Here he didn't have to, but the task with approach shots and his short-game was certainly similar and no doubt helped the Colombia to keep on rolling to a sensational win.
The transition from Mexico to Bermuda might be smoothed somewhat further by the fact that the WWT Championship began under really tough, windy conditions, for all that it ended in a familiar shootout. The forecast for this week features high winds throughout, raising the prospect of a draw bias akin to that which we saw in Las Vegas recently and surely guaranteeing a much higher winning score.
With that in mind some may understandably prefer to wait until tee-times are released late on Tuesday, but the forecast is pretty consistent and, given that winds could reach 30mph, there's a chance play is suspended at some stage. Once that happens, any notion of a preferred half of the draw will depend on exactly how long the delay lasts. Right now it feels like a guessing game.
My approach is to generally ignore the head of the betting, packed though it is with excellent putters. Doubtless one or more of these will work their way into contention but as a collective they're hardly inspiring and it might pay to wait a week, for a likely more predictable RSM Classic, before getting stuck into one of the favourites.
Another bite of Berger
The one I like most from the next wave is, I'm afraid, DANIEL BERGER.
There's no denying the fact that I've put up this former Ryder and Presidents Cup player a handful of times this season, maybe two handfuls by now, including last week in Mexico where he had almost no chance after the opening round.
But Berger did go on to shoot 66-64 through the middle rounds to sit ninth entering Sunday, the second time in four starts he's been right in amongst the battle for places, and having made four cuts in a row it's clear his game has turned a corner. During this spell, a run of 16 rounds includes six of 66 or better, largely because at various times his irons and putter have both looked much improved.
These were Berger's strengths at his best, along with arrow-straight driving, so a short course is bound to be best. If that course is by the coast then all the better – hence his latest win having come in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, played across three of them.
He's a Bermuda debutant on account of the fact that he's always been too good for this grade in the past, but right now, at 124th in FedEx Cup points, he has a job to do. Berger, who has never lost his card since graduating to the PGA Tour a decade ago, was on the outside looking in before this improved run and knows he's potentially four more rounds from completing a job which began at the start of September.
Given his ability, I expect him to do it and unless he's particularly unlucky with the draw, I see it happening here in Bermuda, where tougher scoring conditions ought to be a big help. He's a class act in a weak field and it really could pay to stick with him.
The other players trading at less than 50/1 who made my shortlist were Carson Young and GREYSON SIGG, and the superior course form of the latter gives him the edge for all that Young impressed in Mexico and looks a potential PGA Tour winner for the future.
Sigg though was 22nd on debut and 11th when returning in 2022, so I'm not surprised that Port Royal is back on his schedule after the decision to favour Mexico last year backfired with a missed cut.
This time he comes to Bermuda fresh from his latest start in the Shriners where, drawn in the afternoon against a significant draw bias, he was always up against it. In the circumstances it was a mighty effort to finish 23rd, a performance comparable with 11th place in Utah a week earlier.
With a career-best fourth in the Fortinet also in the bag it's been a good autumn for Sigg, who won by the coast at Pebble Beach as an amateur and is based at Sea Island, host of next week's RSM Classic and a course where he's been 15th and eighth on his last two visits.
Perhaps then we're striking a week too soon, but his blend of accuracy, quality approach play and tidy work around the greens means that a recent upturn with the putter, his weakness all year, has him ready to go close before he arrives home. Maybe it'll be time for a celebration when he does.
Joel Dahmen is another quality ball-striker who putted much better last week and, with form by the sea in the Dominican Republic and Mexico, this place ought to suit. The wind is in his favour too and I liked plenty of what he said last week, about how invigorated his FedEx Cup plight has him feeling, and how determined he is to take care of business from 121st in the standings.
My worry is that his putting promise is based on a couple of rounds rather than a few tournaments and he really can be hopeless at times, so with more missed greens anticipated in the wind, I wonder whether those crucial par putts might just keep sliding by. Like Berger I'd expect him to do enough to keep his card over this fortnight, but perhaps without contending – and he did say 30th might be good enough.
Chesson's world of adventures
One man who has bags of experience, largely positive, when it comes to salvaging his season is CHESSON HADLEY and I could see him doing it again here.
At 142nd in FedEx Cup points Hadley needs a big finish across the next two events and given that he has a best of 23rd in the RSM Classic, where he's largely struggled to make a genuine impact, this looks to be his best chance.
Hadley has two top-20s from as many starts in Bermuda and on neither occasion did he arrive in form, which in fairness is the case again this time as he's without one of those anywhere since May.
However, he has made four cuts in five since the FedExCup Fall began, improving his survival prospects, and as a good iron player and putter with loads of decent results in the wind he does have what I consider to be the right make-up for this.
Hadley has a top-10 finish in a US Open at Pebble Beach, should've won under demanding conditions at Congaree, did win in Puerto Rico, and was once fourth in a brutally windy renewal of the Texas Open won by Jimmy Walker.
He showed a great attitude when conducting an on-course interview right after a maddening sequence of holes in Mexico last week, and this sunny-side-up golfer with a touch of class is well capable of putting his skills to use around a suitable venue at an important time.
I'll resist trotting out the 'favourite bet of the week line' which clearly can't work again, but I am particularly sweet on BEN KOHLES around here.
At his best a straight driver who hits good approaches and can putt the lights out, Kohles has the same sort of profile as the likes of Todd and Gay, though there's no denying that his putter has become a bit of a problem over the past few months.
That said, his last positive performance came at the Sanderson Farms, on the sort of bermuda greens with which he's familiar having been based for so long in North Carolina, so I have to see it as a good thing that he's putting on similar ones here in... Bermuda.
What's more, having made nine cuts in 11 since he rallied in the US Open played in his adopted home state, Kohles' form has a solid look to it and it's fair to say there are few who've been as reliable from a ball-striking perspective during this part of the season.
If that putter were to spark into life then I'm convinced he'd be a huge player back in Bermuda, where in 2021 he produced rounds of 68-64 to first make the cut and then climb right up the leaderboard on what was his event debut, at a time when he'd missed cuts everywhere else.
Kohles is a four-time Korn Ferry Tour champion, twice under difficult conditions, and probably should've won the Nelson back in May. Perhaps he'll do better with that behind him if he's in with a chance come Sunday, which strikes me as eminently possible.
Brandon Wu somehow always ends up on my shortlist for events like this one but it's his namesake DYLAN WU who is preferred.
Wu is the 'bubble boy' at 126th in the standings and it was quite impressive to see him return to form last week, entering the weekend in fourth place and then rallying after a difficult Saturday to finish 14th on his first try at the course.
That came after a one-shot missed cut in Utah so it looks like Wu has found a return to his early-season form just in time, form which probably merits a higher FedEx Cup position (102nd in SG: total) but is undermined by the fact he was consistent rather than explosive. The FedEx Cup scoring system rewards spike weeks far more than it does prolonged runs of above-average golf.
Anyway, here he is with hope reignited and he's shown plenty of promise in three previous trips to Bermuda, always starting well and twice sitting right around 10th entering the final round. Unfortunately for him those final rounds have so far been poor, but that helps mask plenty of encouragement and is good news for us as it helps hold up the price.
Not the best off the tee but a quality iron player and generally good putter, Wu has the right skill set and, at 66/1 and bigger, I'll take him to build on last week's return to form at a course he knows well.
Tyson to land knockout blow
I mentioned TYSON ALEXANDER as a potential rank outsider of some interest last week and he played OK, making the cut and briefly flirting with the top 10 during the second round.
He's shorter in the betting now but at 300/1 I'm not going to dwell for long on that because he has a couple of additional reasons for optimism this time, not least the fact that he was eighth here last year and on the fringes for a time on debut.
Based in Florida, Alexander knows all about battling the wind and while he doesn't have much good form to his name, what he has includes 16th in the Cognizant Classic, always requiring those skills even if this year's edition was somewhat easier than usual.
Also runner-up in Houston, where he battled Tony Finau on a course where birdies aren't easy to come by, Alexander has shown enough to believe he can contend at this lowly level when conditions are suitable.
A short course rates a definite positive – he won twice at the same sub-7,000-yard venue on the Korn Ferry Tour – and he certainly fits the bill on the putting front, ranking 35th for the season. That club has flashed recently, but so too have his irons and that's where I draw real encouragement from.
Alexander has made just two of five cuts during this FedExCup Fall portion of the season but he missed two more by a shot and that's better than what he'd shown prior to last year's top-10, which ended with a fine round of 64.
Returning to a course he knows and likes, he's the pick of the outsiders but I did also weigh up a small bet on Graeme Robertson, for whom conditions have at least come right given the certainty of wind and the possibility of rain.
Robertson is a 36-year-old, late-blooming Scot who has bossed the Tartan Tour this year and will play on the Challenge Tour in 2025.
He's in this field because he won the Goslings Invitational here in Bermuda a few weeks ago and the final round of that event was in fact played at Port Royal under difficult conditions, something he referenced afterwards.
"It feels amazing," Robertson shared with The Royal Gazette. "It's my first time in Bermuda and the first time I’ve seen the courses. It seems I brought Scotland weather to Bermuda. It was really windy, so it suited me really well because I'm used to playing in these sorts of conditions."
Robertson went on to narrowly miss out at Second Stage Q-School on the DP World Tour so while clearly he needs to step up in this much more competitive environment, he's undeniably in the form of his life right now and as others battle for their cards, he can perhaps see this as a bit of a free hit.
On balance he'll probably be outclassed, but I imagine plenty from his home course will have taken odds of 500/1 and upwards and who can blame them.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 12/11/24
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