Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Barbasol Championship preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley has five selections for the Barbasol Championship, headed by the tournament favourite.
Golf betting tips: Barbasol Championship
3pts e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 18/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Cameron Champ at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Trevor Cone at 150/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman at 150/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Max McGreevy at 500/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
For those of us with an unhealthy obsession with golf and its bare, bare margins, the Barbasol Championship, this co-sanctioned opposite event (I do love how meaningless these words would be to all bar you, dear reader), works as a really nice example.
In 2021, JT Poston was in total command of the tournament. Then his tee-shot on the par-five 15th went a foot out of bounds, a position from which he made double-bogey before losing a play-off to Seamus Power. Poston took a year to fully recover while Power kicked on to become a top-50 player in the world.
In 2022, Trey Mullinax also went out of bounds at the par-five 15th, also narrowly, but amid the calmer atmosphere of Thursday afternoon, he was able to recalibrate. Mullinax made eagle with his second ball to sign for a five. Then he went on to win the tournament by a single shot, before playing well as a late invitee to the Open the following week.
What a sport this is and what a spectacle we have back in Kentucky, where Keene Trace again awaits. Perhaps the best way to sum up the tournament is this: as I type a gamble is emerging on a player who, days ago, confessed to the world that he's suffering from the yips, and is believed to be on his way to Scotland.
That someone is Troy Merritt, who has produced two of the best tee-to-green displays of his life over the last fortnight, but putted poorly and settled for 17th each time. Champion here in 2018 and of the view that things are getting better, which they do seem to be, I don't mean to make light of his predicament nor talk down his chances were he to remain in the US, rather to illustrate how weak this field is.
The same point is supported by the fact that TAYLOR PENDRITH, 190th of 190 players in final-round scoring, looks a worthy favourite and overpriced at 18/1. We'll just have to worry about Sunday when it comes.
Pendrith's big-hitting game is ideal for this par 72 where the longest drivers can leave flick wedges on a couple of early par-fours, something he's demonstrated with finishes of 11th and 13th and a final-round scoring average of 67, six shots better than his figure for this season.
His first visit came when still a Korn Ferry Tour player and his second, last year, when returning from injury and making his first start for four months. As he'd demonstrated on debut, the Canadian dominated this course off the tee despite understandable rust in other departments.
Asked after his very first round at Keene Trace whether it suited him, he said: "I think so, yeah. I hit a lot of drivers today, which is my strength, because the ball's not really bouncing. I can kind of take some more aggressive lines off the tees. Drove it amazing. Had, I think, wedge into most of the par-fours, so hit a lot of greens and made some putts."
This time, Pendrith returns after contending in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and with his game looking in much better shape. No longer a Korn Ferry Tour member, nor someone carrying fitness concerns, he's a player who featured in the Presidents Cup last September and one whose driver took a step forward last time out, contributing towards his best tee-to-green display of the year.
When speaking to the media at the Rocket Mortgage Classic he talked about how well prepared he feels for shootouts, which is what this will be, and referenced the suitability of another course which both allowed him to hit driver upon driver, and resulted in a lot of short wedge approach shots.
Yes, that fading 14th place was disappointing for those of us on at big prices, but it might just set him up for this significant drop in grade just as the winner there, Rickie Fowler, had suffered a chastening experience at a higher level before winning in Detroit.
Given that the drop in grade also takes him to one of the most suitable courses on the PGA Tour, I can't get away from his prospects. It'll be disappointing if he doesn't contend.
Norrman not quite the right Price
I had planned to also side with Vincent Norrman, an imperious driver who ranks second in greens hit among this field, and who stayed on well to finish just behind Pendrith in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
I think he'll love this place and he's performed well on driver-heavy courses in Texas and Mexico, too, which is why he was the first name on my list.
The trouble is he's now second-favourite following early support despite one big worry: his withdrawal from the John Deere Classic last week. It came prior to the tournament and it's hard to know whether there's an underlying issue, but I don't want any kind of uncertainty as to a player's condition when taking 25/1 about someone who has seldom contended for, and is yet to win, a professional tour event.
While I'm on those antiquated GIR stats, I'm quite sweet on the one player ranked higher than Norrman, TREVOR CONE.
Again, this is the product of extreme length which means greens are much closer and therefore easier to find. Cone ranks inside the top 10 in driving distance and top 15 in strokes-gained off the tee – remember last year's winner Mullinax is a big-hitter who said this course suits him because 'it's a lot of drivers'.
Cone went to college in Virginia, which borders Kentucky to the east, and won in Missouri, which neighbours it to the west, so conditions will be familiar to another rookie who has taken a while to find his feet at this level despite a consistent 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Cone's best effort came when 23rd in the Nelson but he was excellent off the tee (third) when 40th in the Rocket Mortgage, too, so his form ties in with Norrman and again speaks to a player who wants to be able to lean on the strongest club in his bag.
Again like Norrman, the putter is the main issue but it hides what was a very good 36 holes of ball-striking at the John Deere Classic, where Cone missed the cut on the number. But for that he'd have made three in a row and he looks to be close enough to take advantage of a drop in class even from Illinois, where distance isn't a big advantage.
Here at Keene Trace it certainly can be and in taking the general 125/1 with seven places or 150s with six, we at least look to be buying into a likely strong ball-striking week from one of the most powerful players in the field. That will do for me and it's not as though he's been without promise on the greens, producing a couple of top-20 displays back in the spring.
Champ for a fourth time?
CAMERON CHAMP made a strong start when selected for the aforementioned RMC two weeks ago only to narrowly miss the cut, but he's worth persevering with as part of a group of big-hitters.
Champ's short-game was squarely to blame for that narrow failure and while that remains a risk, he putted nicely at the John Deere Classic where he was first in strokes-gained off the tee in rounds two and four.
Given his enigmatic profile it's no big surprise that the driver wasn't there in rounds one and three, but this course ought to suit him better and I like the fact that he's gained strokes with his approaches in five of his last six starts. Should he keep that going, one of his best weeks off the tee would likely see him in the mix.
He should at least find plenty of greens if he does do what we're asking of him with the driver and that in turn mitigates concerns around the weakest part of his game, chipping. Fellow big-hitter Mullinax came here with poor SG: around the green stats but it didn't matter, as nobody found more of them for the week. Champ could do the same.
As mentioned two starts ago what we know for sure is that Champ is a three-time PGA Tour champion who takes chances when they arrive. That makes him the most prolific winner in the field in terms of strike-rate, and a bet at 33/1 and upwards.
Schott, Ravetto and Veerman pick of raiding party
You may notice that I've stuck to PGA Tour members so far and that's with reason. The DP World Tour players are those who couldn't qualify for the Scottish Open, many of them unsure of their futures for next season and perhaps set to return to Qualifying School if things don't pick up soon.
This is a massive opportunity for them, the prize PGA Tour membership, and away from home that will work against most. We saw it last year with Matti Schmid, selected here at 125/1 and the 54-hole leader at an ideal course, only to struggle badly on Sunday and fall agonisingly short of landing the place money.
Hurly Long fared best in fourth, the only DP World Tour representative among the top seven, so in general it should pay not to expect too much from Europe, even without a host of in-form home players in this field.
I was going to give the benefit of the doubt to big-hitting Freddy Schott, another young German, but the opening 250/1 quotes were gobbled up and I can leave him alone now. Schott decided against a US college career, unlike both Schmid and Long, and I suspect despite his promise this will be a good learning experience and no more.
David Ravetto went to Texas Christian where he became a top-25 amateur and this strong driver might be ready to do himself justice having carded four nice rounds in Denmark. At the very least he'll be prepared for the humid conditions and he's already had a look at winning during his rookie campaign.
Both Niklas Moller and Marcus Helligkilde have the game for this as they showed last year but the latter is struggling badly on the greens and the former looks short in the betting, so the one I am going to chance is JOHANNES VEERMAN.
Another strong driver when at his best, Veerman emerged from a quiet spell with a final-round 64 for 10th place at HimmerLand and while not a lot to go on, he's shown in the past that he can take something like that and run with it.
At the start of this year, Veerman followed a surprise eighth place in Dubai with a top-20 at Al Hamra, while his previous top-10 finish came last summer and again he kept up the good work with 20th under less than ideal conditions in Sweden.
Back in 2021 his breakthrough win came after finishes of third, eighth and 46th, the latter in the Open, while he recorded back-to-back top-10s the previous October and kicked off his career at this level with a string of good performances after a stunning effort at Q School.
Prior to the Made in HimmerLand he'd said he felt things were moving in the right direction despite finishing down the field at the Belfry, and five cuts made in succession represents a better platform than most in this field.
Veerman has travelled the world but he plays under the flag of the USA having been born in California and gone to college in Texas. He might not have taken a similar chance in the Barracuda last year but his second round was among the best at a quirky golf course which might take a bit of figuring out.
He is now about twice the price he was for that stronger event and I suspect this course is a far better fit, so while his overall form isn't quite as strong, he's worth backing to build on an improved display in Denmark.
Max appeal? Well, not quite...
Akshay Bhatia's tee-to-green stats are the best in this field and he's respected along with Lucas Glover, the longtime flusher who appears to have cracked putting since switching to a similar model to that used by Adam Scott. Whether it lasts wouldn't be certain but he's an in-form, class act who seldom swims in waters this shallow.
Peter Kuest is the other notable at the head of the betting following an impressive fortnight while Grayson Murray's claims are there for all to see at the right kind of price, while Ryan Gerard and his former college teammate David Ford are both of some interest in the sort of event that looks ripe for a youngster with talent to make a name for themselves.
However I don't see a great deal of value around and will finish off with a real flier on MAX MCGREEVY, who should probably be left alone once the general 300/1 and best of 500/1 has gone but is worth a very small bet at the prices available at the time of writing.
Statistically, McGreevy is about as close to a no-hoper as you'll find, with all aspects of his game having been poor for most of this season. He has just 107 FedEx Cup points and has earned less than $300,000, which on the PGA Tour means you've played terribly.
The positive, if it can be labelled as such, is that he'd been no better prior to his four standout performances in 2022. First he was runner-up in Puerto Rico, then 13th here having led at halfway, fifth at the Wyndham to keep his card, and eighth in Bermuda.
All of these are weak events perhaps with the exception of the Wyndham, which appears to correlate pretty nicely with this. Jim Herman has won both, Poston really should have, Billy Horschel might have, and there are a handful of others who've gone well at each course.
McGreevy said he felt like he could score at Keene Trace when he arrived here last year and that his low-spin game helped him somewhat on these soft greens, and for what it's worth his sole Korn Ferry Tour win came in neighbouring Missouri.
I also thought his second round at Deere Run was eye-catching. McGreevy was on track to finally end a run of missed cuts when five-under for the day through 14. Then his lack of confidence revealed itself as he bogeyed 15 from the fairway, doubled 17 from next to the green in two, and found water when the game was up at the 18th.
Similar mistakes are more likely than not but I wonder if McGreevy, who has found form out of nowhere in the past, might be back in front of the media at some stage this week, talking about how well he played for most of that round in Illinois.
Certainly there was more encouragement to be taken from how he played at Deere Run and he'd said a week earlier that 'I know I’m moving in the right direction', so at the right course and in the right grade, that's enough for a speculative wager.
Posted at 1100 BST on 11/07/23
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