Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Bahrain Championship preview and best bets
Sebastian Soderberg has been threatening a second DP World Tour win for several months, and Ben Coley believes it could arrive in Bahrain.
Golf betting tips: Bahrain Masters
2pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 25/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Sebastian Soderberg at 30/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 45/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello at 100/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nacho Elvira at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The list of reasons why the DP World Tour shouldn't be returning to Bahrain after 13 years away includes much more serious things, but it's going to be interesting to discover whether 'because of its sole championship golf course' remains at the bottom of it.
When Paul Casey beat Miguel Angel Jimenez and Peter Hanson to capture the Volvo Golf Champions here in 2011, he was in fact surprisingly diplomatic when asked about Royal Golf Club, when his fractured relationship with its designer, Colin Montgomerie, might have seen him choose another path entirely.
Ian Poulter, who unlike Casey had played for Montgomerie in the previous year's Ryder Cup, managed to bite his lip and state 'someone has to win on Sunday' and the amiable Bradley Dredge said 'we've just got to get on with it'. Martin Wiegele was comparatively giddy about the place in concluding 'I'm all right with it'.
That controversy, when controversy in golf meant not liking the look of a course, stemmed largely from dramatically contoured greens which some felt meant approach work was key. There have though been some changes made since, including flattening them, which should mean they can be speeded up while providing more options for pins.
Hopefully it will now live up to its billing and provide a decent test, which the wind in the forecast will help with. Without it, this relatively short, par 72 course with a pair of short par-fours to begin the back-nine, plus two reachable par-fives soon after to go with two on the front, might be a bit of a pushover now that the silliness has been removed.
That 2011 leaderboard features six biggish hitters in the top seven, the high-class Miguel Angel Jimenez the only exception. Perhaps the other obvious point of order is that Casey, Jimenez and Hanson had battled it out at Abu Dhabi GC a few years earlier, hinting at a correlation, but it's Doha – home of the Qatar Masters except for in 2020 and 2021 – which pops up everywhere you look on that leaderboard.
Given that Doha is exposed and has long favoured good wind players, Montgomerie included, that's an angle I'm interested in. And if it works, then the good news is we can play it again a week later, when the Qatar Masters rounds off the Middle East swing before the DP World Tour returns to the more wholesome fun of the truly Magical Kenya Open.
The market is headed by Rasmus Hojgaard who is absolutely the form player, but that's largely because he has barely missed a putt over the past fortnight. For as long as that continues he will remain a threat, but he'll be a tad frustrated not to have properly made it pay, and with this being his fourth start in a row I worry he might grow weary if the putter does cool.
Behind him are many of the usual suspects and for most of them in fact, the putter is the problem. It's hard to back Jordan Smith at 18/1 in light of his ongoing struggles, Yannik Paul seems unlikely to make more than his share, and the same is true of Joost Luiten, who will pop up in any analysis that focuses on other Montgomerie-designed courses.
It's a bit of a worry with SEBASTIAN SODERBERG, too, but he's shown some signs of improvement lately including when ninth last week.
The Swede is one of the quiet improvers on the circuit and some of his form since the beginning of 2023 is outstanding. Second at Yas Links and fifth at St Andrews are among the highlights, with third place in Mauritius also demonstrating how comfortable he is when the wind blows.
Soderberg first came to prominence on home soil at an exposed course and while his sole DP World Tour win so far came in the Swiss Alps, these conditions suit just fine. In fact, as one of the very best iron players in the field if not the best on recent evidence, they should accentuate his strengths.
Big greens hopefully mean that, despite the wind, he doesn't have to hit too many shots around them and the fact that they've been levelled out helps regardless, and having started to putt with greater consistency of late he's a player I expect to see going close again soon.
Last week's effort might've been better still but for a clumsy mistake which sapped his momentum midway through the front-nine on Sunday, and while he too is playing his fourth event of the year, he hasn't been in the thick of things like Hojgaard has.
Having played well on his first start in Doha, Soderberg looks one of the most likely winners and as with three of my other selections, I rate this a more suitable course than Al Hamra. That plus the weaker field justifies shorter odds and he's a bet at 25/1 and bigger.
Alex Fitzpatrick doesn't have to concede an inexperience handicap and, unlike most of the big names, he certainly can make everything he looks at. As you may know that's seldom my starting point but there's no denying punters are being asked to take short odds about some decidedly poor putters and many will be more inclined to chance him or the potentially high-class Keita Nakajima.
Both are respected but I prefer ANTOINE ROZNER, who has two wins in the Middle East to his name plus another by the coast in Mauritius and is simply a class act for the grade.
He played well in the Dubai Desert Classic last time and arrives refreshed for this, no doubt buoyed like all of the Frenchmen in this field will be by the PGA Tour heroics of Matthieu Pavon on Saturday night.
Rozner will feel he ought to be out there too having flirted with establishing himself worldwide a couple of years ago, and for a while now I've felt his very best form is close once again, something he suggested with that blistering start in Mauritius just before Christmas.
Although his Qatar Masters win came at Education City he played Doha nicely late last year and as he demonstrated in the Hero Cup at the beginning of 2023 and when winning a few weeks before that, he really can be advantaged by breezy conditions when his long-game is purring.
Better signs off the tee at the difficult Emirates GC two weeks ago could prove to be the missing piece of the jigsaw and while Rozner wouldn't be known as a fabulous putter himself, he has been inside the top 30 in four of his last five starts, and ranked third just before this sequence when 10th in the Dunhill Links.
There's very little between some of these players at the top of the betting but Rozner is second only to Hojgaard when firing, and form figures of 15-29-32-16 this season suggest he's ready to show it. A better start and a decent putting week and I'd expect to see his name firmly in the mix until the death.
Austrian hasn't yet Bernd his bridges...
Last week's event developed into more of a shootout than I'd hoped but that was no excuse for Alejandro del Rey, the Spanish powerhouse who made 25 birdies and an eagle yet was nowhere near the places.
He's raw but hugely talented and will go close on the right course, but the wind in the forecast demands one more try with BERND WIESBERGER at prices which still underestimate him.
Wiesberger has made the cut in both starts since returning to the DP World Tour and while he was never really in the mix last week, conditions were just too easy for a player who has always been known for what he does from tee to green, and who was on the wrong side of the draw.
He did though putt pretty well in Dubai before that and as I mentioned in the Ras Al Khaimah preview, it might just be that he needs a little more time to reacquaint himself with life on the DP World Tour.
That remains possible after four more rounds but the latest of them, a Sunday 67, was his most impressive yet, and as well as making the odd putt he really struck it well, signing off with four birdies in five holes.
As a former Scottish Open champion we know conditions won't be an excuse and having been third at Doha, he ticks that box. Wiesberger also has some strong Montgomerie form courtesy of second and ninth in the KLM Open and seventh in Turkey, and at bigger than 33s in this field he rates value.
Spanish duo offer each-way value
Pablo Larrazabal could bounce back quickly from last week's missed cut and is always tempting given his strike-rate, but I want to further tap into the potential Doha link with two of his compatriots.
First, RAFA CABRERA BELLO has been dropping subtle hints that he's ready to threaten at a big price and I reckon this is a far better course for him than Al Hamra.
Even so, the former Ryder Cup player gained strokes off the tee, with his approaches and around the green last week and he's definitely capable of producing something better with the putter, which may be all that's required.
He's got an excellent Doha record which features finishes of second, third (twice) and sixth, was fifth at Carton House and 11th at Montgomerie Maxx Royal, and he made very few mistakes after a slowish start last week.
Tougher conditions will benefit another Scottish Open champion and though he's hardly one to rely on, three-figure prices look worth a bet after a sustained run of solid golf which has seen him make 10 cuts in a row.
He's a former winner in the Middle East and if Abu Dhabi Golf Club does prove a better form guide than Doha, he has that base covered too having been fourth there when the DP World Tour last visited in 2021.
His countryman NACHO ELVIRA has an equally impressive Doha record, featuring three top-10s in the last five years.
Second on an exposed course in Denmark last year, where he lost out to Hojgaard, Elvira then went on to contend for the Qatar Masters yet again, so if that course link does hold up then he looks one of the most likely outsiders.
Elvira, who must be enjoying having his younger brother Manuel out on the circuit now, has an excellent short-game and the fact he shot three 67s over the final three rounds at Al Hamra is encouraging as that wouldn't be his course.
Few in the field bettered him over those final 54 holes and while I tend to shy away from players who can struggle off the tee as he often does, Montgomerie did give them plenty of space to work with.
Another Spaniard, Sebastian Garcia, catches the eye at massive odds having finished mid-pack in both starts so far this year. He landed the place money for us at an exposed course a couple of seasons ago and if short-games do come to the fore, there aren't many better than his.
Mike Lorenzo Vera has made an encouraging start to the season and is another Frenchman who ought to bounce into this week, while Aussie duo Dave Micheluzzi and Jason Scrivener are also of some interest.
Where Lorenzo Vera is concerned I did wonder if this might play similarly to the Jack Nicklaus design which hosted last year's Korea Championship, won by Larrazabal, and that kind of speculation is very much the order of the day in an event which will pass by without anyone bar the likes of us paying any attention at all.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 29/01/24
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