Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Australian Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley tipped runners-up on both tours last week as his strong end to 2024 continues. Get his best bets for the Australian Open.
Golf betting tips: Australian Open
5pts e.w. Min Woo Lee at 9/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Victor Perez at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Todd Sinnott at 350/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Wherever you stand when it comes to men's professional golf and its many, many problems, the fact that more should be done to elevate the Australian Open seems almost unanimously accepted.
So much has changed since Jack Nicklaus won the Stonehaven Cup for a sixth time, even since Rory McIlroy captured it in 2013, that it's not even their reverence for this historic tournament that makes the argument. It is far simpler than that. Australia boasts some of the world's best golf courses and a large, engaged fanbase. What more should be needed?
But while LIV Golf and the PGA Tour and their respective teams attempt to repair the damage created by the former's malevolence and the latter's malpractice, it's left to the DP World Tour to press on and co-sanction, which it does for a third time this week. The PGA Tour never comes here, remember, despite having ventured to Malaysia, Japan and Korea. LIV, for all its noise, pops along once every 12 months.
With Adam Scott and Jason Day absent, not even the most successful Australian golfers are here and while Scott can be given a pass, Day's decision not to stay for one week more is hard to understand. There is no doubt whatsoever that his joy in returning to the motherland last week was genuine, but whoever is advising him ought to have suggested four more days of golf in the tournament which matters so much more than its companion PGA.
Anyway, what we have is what we have and that includes a return to Kingston Heath, consistently ranked the number two course in the country behind Royal Melbourne, which is just a couple of miles away. This devilish course co-hosted in 2022 but only for one round to Victoria's three; this week, those roles are reversed.
Given that Kingston Heath averaged almost two strokes over par two years ago, Adrian Meronk's 66 the clear best score anyone managed across those first two days, expect a real test even if more rain means the course won't be as firm as we'd all like. It will though play long and, bar the first hole, it's notable how difficult the par-fives are and then comes a fearsome closing stretch from the 16th home.
Conditions might play more into the hands of Joaquin Niemann and MIN WOO LEE than they do Cam Smith and there's certainly no temptation to ride with the latter.
He does have some decent form here from the 2012 Talisker Masters and Open qualifying a year later, both while still an amateur, but last week we were able to take 9/1 in his hometown of Brisbane, at a course where he's a past champion, and in an event he's won three times previously.
Smith has made no secret of his desperation to capture the Australian Open and he might well do it as soon as Sunday, but he hasn't been a factor in this since 2017 and did fold quite tamely in the PGA. His approach to the final hole, when at last the leader had started to wobble, rather summed up his display.
Niemann is therefore the clear most likely winner but it's Lee who I prefer this time in anticipation of another predictable result.
The PGA might've gone to a 66/1 shot, but Elvis Smylie has long been considered the next big thing Down Under and was on what I considered to be a short list of potential winners. Nobody who wasn't on it got close to winning, with third-placed Anthony Quayle coming from the clouds and always short of the required total.
Otherwise it was Smylie fending off Smith, Marc Leishman and Dave Micheluzzi, with Cam Davis next, Spanish star-in-the-making Angel Ayora flying home to finish alongside him in sixth, and fellow standout Challenge Tour players John Parry and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen alongside Day and a couple of others in eighth.
These tournaments lack depth and it was exposed over just 54 holes in Brisbane, so providing we get to the regulation 72 then we'll probably see the best players dominate once more. On that, you'd have to hope that organisers would be more determined to find a way to complete four rounds given the stature of the Australian Open, which is comforting given that more rain is in the forecast albeit less than last week.
And it's that rain, combined with the fact that he's finished third in the last two renewals, that provides sufficient encouragement to take a chance on Lee's putting. I wouldn't have expected to write that at any previous point in his career but right now, the youngster is in a slump which kept him to 15th last week when he ought to have been right in the mix.
First in driving and first in strokes-gained tee-to-green, no wonder Lee looked frustrated as he watched playing partners Smith and Day dazzle while he let all kinds of chances slip by, but having been favourite for the PGA, in Smith's backyard, I do now feel that we're being compensated for the risk that he fails to hole his share.
Lee has historically been a fabulous putter and with Kingston Heath set to play long, he has everything else in place to go very close, including a good round of 70 here two years ago. Clearly, that result shows us that he can score at Victoria, and if we rewind the clock his first DP World Tour win came in the Vic Open just across Port Phillip.
He's defied bad weather to capture a Scottish Open and simply looks the best value among the big names, with Leishman winless in almost five years, Davis into 12/1 from 20s, and Lucas Herbert largely poor at Royal Queensland. For my money it's Niemann or Lee and with the Chilean faced with a new set of courses for his title defence, Lee gets the vote at almost twice the price.
Micheluzzi is from Melbourne but again we're being asked to take considerably shorter odds with Niemann added to the field and that doesn't sit right. Besides, he says Kingston Heath 'scares the living daylights out of me' and while both him and Davis do have course form from the Sandbelt Invitational, I don't consider them value this time.
Instead, having felt VICTOR PEREZ was the pick of the Europeans prior to last week, he's now selected having drifted for finishing mid-pack on what was his first start in a month.
Also mid-pack in the ZOZO Championship, and in Spain, France, England, Memphis and North Carolina before that, it's been a steady but unspectacular run from the Frenchman since he finished a heartbreaking fourth in the Olympic Games in Paris.
Still, there have been plenty of good signs in his game, most notably some big improvements with his irons of late and when they fired during the summer, we saw what Perez can do with third in Canada and 12th in the high-class Memorial Tournament.
His strong links and modern-links pedigree features wins in Scotland, at Bernardus in the Netherlands and at Yas Links in Abu Dhabi and all of that strikes me as potentially relevant around this Sandbelt classic, where pragmatism, decision-making, creativity and control of your ball-flight are all of heightened importance versus the week-to-week game we witness elsewhere.
Perez should have the skills to cope with the test at hand and while I'm a big advocate for making allowances for the style of golf and the location it's being played, he's a better player than all bar the big six bar perhaps Jordan Smith. I'd have them as equals and Perez is a bet down to the 16/1 you'll find next to Smith's name.
Under firmer conditions I'd like the chances of Richie Ramsay, who could so easily have finished a fair bit higher last week, but Kingston Heath could play longer than he'd like and might be more in favour of Daniel Hillier, albeit the New Zealander has a poor record in the event.
By contrast Jason Scrivener's is excellent, but he will need to improve enormously on last week's tame effort and if there's one who catches the eye among the DP World Tour raiders it's Jeon Weong Ko. He might enjoy this and is respected at three-figure prices having finished 24th at Royal Queensland.
Three Aussies to watch at big odds
Likeable options among the home contingent are also thin on the ground with Smylie and Kazuma Kobori others who have shortened significantly, even if in Smylie's case it is entirely merited, but there are three outsiders who caught my eye and I'll include a word on each of them.
To be clear, only one of the three makes my staking plan because the prices on the first two have quickly attracted attention and I wouldn't go any lower than what's now generally available, so selecting them isn't really an option given the speed at which prices can change in tournaments like this.
First is Matias Sanchez, who plays out of Royal Melbourne and ought to know his way around here.
Sanchez was a highly-touted prospect who actually beat Lee in the final of the Australian Amateur in 2017, that coming here in Melbourne which has been his base for many years now.
And while he is still seeking his first professional win at tour level, form figures of 9-4-58-15 since the new PGA of Australia season began suggest he's close enough to landing it, with last week's performance his most notable yet in strong company.
Sanchez has been a regular on leaderboards lately, sitting inside the top 10 at halfway in each of his last five starts, and only under really difficult conditions during the weekend of the NSW Open did he falter. Back closer to home, he's one I could see sticking around close to the top 10.
Phoenix Campbell, who is bound to be among those inspired by Smylie's coming-of-age win, will be similarly comfortable back in his home city and could bounce back from last week's narrow missed cut.
Campbell only recently turned professional and quickly doubled his tally of tour-level wins by defending his title in the Queensland PGA Championship, where he led after every round.
Although his Aussie PGA effort suggests he has work to do, as does a missed cut on his Australian Open debut last year, he's another for whom home advantage could count. In fact, he plays out of the aforementioned Yarra Yarra, which is just a couple of miles from Kingston Heath.
Winner of the Master of the Amateurs and the Riverside Cup, two of Australian golf's most prestigious amateur prizes, I'm not surprised he's attracted a bit of support already.
But at the prices it's the far more exposed TODD SINNOTT who is worth backing at 200/1 and upwards, giving us something to work with as he's as big as 500/1 in a place.
Again from Melbourne, Sinnott has never hit the heights expected when he turned professional almost a decade ago, but he remains a big talent with big power off the tee. Not often would I consider that much of a factor in Australia but conditions this week, plus Meronk's win in 2022, suggest it might be somewhat significant.
Most of all though I like how Sinnott has raised his game in these two big home events. To my mind it's pretty astonishing that his worst finish in six starts in the Australian PGA is 28th, while his results in the Australian Open read 31-8-28-MC, the latter coming here two years ago where he missed out by a single shot.
Granted, he struggled at Kingston Heath after what had been a good start at Victoria, but one round is never likely to tell us much and I'll take that chance given that he'd contended on all three previous Australian Open starts.
Two top-10s in 10 tries across the two is an excellent return for a player of his profile and as for his recent form, prior to last week's 24th he'd come through Second Stage of DP World Tour Q-School (poor at Final Stage) and led after round one of the Black Mountain Championship before fading to 44th.
He needs more, much more, but so often has found it back home. Playing in Melbourne, on rain-softened courses, after a big step in the right direction in Brisbane, he's one I could see giving us a run for our money.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 25/11/24
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