Ben Coley's golf betting tips: AT&T Byron Nelson preview and best bets
Two players who've finished runner-up for us at big prices already this year make the staking plan for this week's AT&T Byron Nelson, including Brandon Wu.
Golf betting tips: AT&T Byron Nelson
1pt e.w. Brandon Wu at 55/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Scott Stallings at 70/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Eric Cole at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Michael Kim at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Nate Lashley at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
*Mark Hubbard advised at 100/1 has withdrawn, stakes refunded
The AT&T Byron Nelson will be a good test of just how impenetrable the Rahm-Scheffler axis has become (wait, are there degrees of impenetrability? Probably not, but do read on). Jon Rahm has already won a supposedly volatile shootout this year, one he'd complained about when things weren't going so well. Might Scottie Scheffler, whose worst finish so far in 2023 is 12th, do the same?
Scheffler has two wins to Rahm's four but consider this: he's the PGA Tour's bang-average putter right now, ranking 99th, gaining precisely nothing. To carry a club like that and miss no cuts in a dozen starts for the season, only once playing poorly, says everything about the phenomenal state of his long-game.
It's why he ought to be high on the shortlist for the PGA Championship but it's also why he shouldn't really interest anyone at 7/2 for the Nelson. Low-scoring events are often mischaracterised as glorified putting competitions, nevertheless I'm not sure you want to be going into battle with someone who is prone to a really quiet week on the greens.
Scheffler might have this title on his hit list being a Texas man so I'd worry less about focus wandering to Oak Hill, yet there's no denying that eve-of-major tournaments can produce the unexpected: Sung Kang and KH Lee in Dallas, Jim Herman and DA Points in Houston, JJ Spaun and Corey Conners (the first time) in San Antonio.
Of course, this has more to do with fields than focus, and we have to acknowledge things could look so very different at the Nelson. When Lee won the first PGA Tour event held here in 2021, Sam Burns was second. When he defended that title, second place went to Jordan Spieth, with Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele all close behind.
With Spieth now absent I'll be rolling the dice, because Tyrrell Hatton complained of feeling awful over the ball last week, Dallas-based Tom Kim has been putting poorly, and Jason Day has hit a bump on the road to recovery. Of the three it's Kim who I found most tempting having played well here last year and come a long way since, but Spieth's withdrawal and some Monday support has squeezed his price.
First up I'll take BRANDON WU to build on third place behind Rahm and Tony Finau last time out.
Wu was right in the mix again in Mexico, playing the first seven holes of the final round in five-under before his winning chance disappeared with three costly holes around the turn.
Still it was a further boost to the confidence of a youngster long considered capable of going all the way to the top of the game, even if I suspect his lack of firepower means slightly lesser targets than that might be wise.
Wu had earlier finished second to Justin Rose at Pebble Beach so it's been a good first half of the year and he hit a career-high world ranking following his latest performance, before missing the Wells Fargo which may not be a bad thing after being in the mix south of the border.
Craig Ranch is a par 71 now so scoring will be higher than in previous years (the 12th is a par-four having been a par-five previously), but it's shorter on the scorecard and will play easier – fewer shots will be hit, it's just that the to-par score will make it seem more difficult.
Wu has the tools for a shootout, as he demonstrated with a field-leading putting display last time out, and while not the longest this course isn't really about what you do off the tee. Fairways are wide but there are plenty of holes which will offer up wedge approach shots for everyone and two-time champion Lee wouldn't be the longest.
My view is that we'll need a blend of quality irons and a very good putting week and Wu has the tools for both, as he also showed when carrying Joseph Bramlett in the Zurich Classic before his performance down at Vidanta Vallarta.
Two rounds of 66s through the middle of his Byron Nelson debut last year offer up sufficient encouragement and he made no secret of how delighted he was that this opportunity to play a 'home game' had finally come around, the Californian having been based here in Dallas for some time.
Texas connections have pointed the way to a handful of big-priced winners in the Lone Star State down the years and Wu, at around the 50/1 mark, could well be the latest to underline the benefits of home comforts.
MICHAEL KIM is another Dallas exile and it's telling that when at an extremely low ebb in 2021, he still managed to make the cut in this event – that was at a time when it was MC or WD everywhere else.
Returning now with his game rebuilt, Kim has six top-30s this year including seventh place at the Wells Fargo last week, his first foray into 'designated event' company. Most impressive was that he built success there on his driver, the very club which threatened to ruin his career.
Kim reflected on his performance and the event on twitter, having become one of the rising stars of the doomed social media website. He said: "My game is certainly trending in the correct direction. It’s amazing I’ve been working on the same few things for over a year and I prob will be working on the same principles my entire career."
Anything like the performance he put in last week and he has every right to be a factor here, not least because the putter is well and truly purring.
Remember, Kim is a PGA Tour winner and it came in a pre-major shootout, earning him a place in the following week's Open Championship. I will confess it escaped my attention, but the Wells Fargo gave out Open spots too, and Kim was delighted to secure his return to links golf.
Clearly feeling on top of the world and with his game looking solid, he is another in-form local who will appreciate these wide fairways. Perhaps he can keep the ball rolling for another four rounds.
Stephan Jaeger is playing wonderfully and should enjoy this but he's also putting very poorly. That's hard to get to grips with as it has often been a strength, but 10 starts running he's lost strokes to the field and he's going to have to snap that sequence if he's to reward backers at 40/1 generally and 50s in places.
Instead, I'll rely more on what SCOTT STALLINGS has said rather than the numbers which underpin his quiet improvement of late.
Stallings had a fantastic 2022 campaign, reaching the TOUR Championship, but it took until one of the big rewards for doing so came around for him to find his game in 2023. That was at the Masters, where a top-30 finish came courtesy of a good week with the putter.
He'd shown some flashes in the Match Play, taking a red-hot Rory McIlroy down the 17th and signing off with a win against Denny McCarthy, and making the cut at Harbour Town is a surefire sign things are on the up as he has an utterly abysmal record at that quirky course.
I can forgive him a mediocre effort in the Zurich Classic alongside an out-of-form partner and if we do take the view that his game has turned a corner, which is what he said after a good start to the Heritage, then we've a quality operator with a really strong course record.
Stallings' putter powered third place on debut before he finished 25th last year, this time his long-game improving, and his game had been very quiet prior to each of these. That is again the case except there might just be a bit more positivity hidden beneath the surface, so I'll take him as the course angle at 66s and bigger.
Compensation for Cole?
I really can't recommend anyone at under 50/1 as all of them are unconvincing to my eye. Perhaps Seamus Power will build on an improved display in Charlotte, especially after some fellow Ryder Cup hopefuls impressed in Italy, while Taylor Montgomery could feasibly blast and putt his way to a breakthrough which looked on the cards earlier this year.
My view is that we ought to take the chance to get the big names beaten just as was the case in the Honda Classic, where ERIC COLE came within a whisker of landing a 175/1 winner.
Cole's performance during that final round was superb, one slightly heavy-handed chip shot and then an unfortunate bounce followed by a lip-out costing him in the end, and none of us who watched it were surprised to see him stick around in Mexico a couple of starts back for another top-10 finish.
Missed cuts either side might put some off but he played very well in the Zurich, where he was badly hamstrung by friend and partner Sam Saunders, while last week at Quail Hollow he missed the cut by two despite putting poorly on a course I wouldn't have down as ideal.
Cole's reliance on a stock draw can be a real weapon when things are going well but also means he can struggle off the tee at times, as we saw when he failed to build on a strong start when selected in Texas prior to the Masters. However, these wide fairways ought to help and the rest of his game is excellent, as he's 53rd in strokes-gained approach, 22nd in putting, and solid around the green.
In the mix here in Texas last month just as he had been on the Korn Ferry Tour, I'm very happy to rely on his strongest club turning up again and if it does, he's capable of getting involved once more. Hopefully those Dallas winds, which are forecast for the first three days, prove another small boost to his chances.
A little bit of history repeating?
Having made Wyndham Clark my player to follow in 2023 it was of course frustrating not to be on for his first win at 66s, and if there's a player in here who I'd regret it would have to be Davis Riley. Selected last week in preference to someone like Clark, his putting display in the first round was as bad as you're ever likely to witness.
Besides that he played reasonably and with a top-10 finish on his course debut, this enormous talent made me think twice at 50/1. Seven times bitten, eighth time shy was ultimately the conclusion where he is concerned, while JJ Spaun's propensity to fail to build on a good start was also enough to dissuade me from putting up a player who won in Texas a week before the Masters last year.
I'll end a speculative staking plan with NATE LASHLEY, another who performed above expectations at Quail Hollow – which is exactly what happened prior to his runaway Rocket Mortgage Classic victory of 2019.
Back then, Lashley had finished 28th in the US Open, ranking sixth in strokes-gained approach. It was a confidence-boosting effort from which he flew over to Detroit and won by a distance under low-scoring conditions.
Might history repeat? Lashley was tied for first at halfway in the Wells Fargo, eventually finishing 27th, and ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach. It's certainly a similar platform, but what I like most is that his iron play has been good for most of the year and his putter might just be warming up.
As with a couple of my selections, extra space off the tee will help along with the fact that driver isn't likely to be decisive, and as for Craig Ranch form he closed with an eight-under 64 for 17th place last year, a week after he'd withdrawn from the Wells Fargo.
He will have to bounce back from a disappointing weekend which stemmed from the tee, but his last few drives were excellent and if he can make small improvements from what was ultimately an encouraging performance at a course where he had no prior good form, then he can contend at one where he does.
Posted at 0930 BST on 09/05/23
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