Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and best bets
Ben Coley has three selections for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Rory McIlroy could return to the top of the world rankings.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational
5pts e.w. Rory McIlroy at 9/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Cameron Young 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Jason Day 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
We're nine events into the PGA Tour season and, so far, the most obvious winner was Jake Knapp. Two major champions feature along with four first-timers, but both were returning to form at big prices and one, Wyndham Clark, didn't really win. Nick Dunlap did, and he was an amateur at the time. So did a Frenchman, the first ever, and Matthieu Pavon still leads the FedEx Cup.
Whatever your preferences, be they to see the world's best players taking each other on regularly (bad luck with that one) or to see unheralded ones given opportunities to achieve great things, surely we can find consensus on this point of view: the PGA Tour could really do with some world-class players fighting it out, and this needs to take place on a Sunday night.
It would be wrong to declare it certain at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, after 200/1 shot Kurt Kitayama gazumped them all a year ago, but it does seem likely. Bay Hill is a long, hard par 72, Florida's impression of what some would consider a typical US Open. It is penal everywhere, from water to rough to lightning-quick greens, and if Saturday's forecast wind materialises, you can throw that into the equation too.
Such tests lend themselves to producing elite champions and the size and nature of the field does, too. There is a cut, as was the case at Riviera last month, but with just 69 players taking part in the first place, few will suffer that fate. The flaw in the plan is that a smaller field played some part in the fact that Hideki Matsuyama had that tournament won well before the final hole.
As for what's required to conquer Bay Hill, strong driving is a good place to start. Short hitters have gradually been squeezed out of this down the years but it's not the driver-wedge stuff you sometimes see thrown up at this level, with more mid-to-long irons than just about anywhere else on the schedule. Again, that dynamic helps those who can land a six-iron as softly as some would land an eight or nine and that's reflected in results.
For course comparisons, Scottsdale stands out among those visited so far this season. Kitayama's form there reads 23-8, Matt Every won twice here having began his Phoenix Open career with two top-10s, Martin Laird has four of them, and surprise Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling played well there down the years. Oh, and Scottie Scheffler, of course, who did the double in 2022.
Scheffler is favourite and it may be that he putts well enough to win, but outside of the Hero Challenge, he hasn't had a top-30 putting week in more than a year now. That club helped him to win here but cost him the title in 2023 and, metronomic in the chances he creates, it will again determine exactly how high up this leaderboard he finishes.
But I prefer RORY MCILROY, who has a couple of potential advantages over Scheffler and can be backed at the same price as last year, despite the absences of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and former Bay Hill champion Tyrrell Hatton.
Unlikely Scheffler, McIlroy warmed up in Florida last week and that might just help. He was right in the mix until making a mess of the Bear Trap in round three, but there's a positive spin to be put on that too as it meant he was able to finish his final round on Sunday, rather than return on Monday as so many others did.
Come the end of that tournament the numbers painted a familiar picture: exceptional off-the-tee, modest with his approaches, and not good enough with the putter to compete with a brilliant winner in Austin Eckroat.
We will need to see the putter improve but some of the best numbers of his career helped him to win this title in 2018 and what's certain is that nobody in the game is driving the ball better, which is vital. McIlroy is seldom bad in this department, of course, but leading the field three times in four is sensational even by his standards.
Unlike all other elite players he has won this year, in good company, and I find it easy enough to excuse a modest effort at Pebble Beach, where he's seldom played. He was then very good bar the first round at Riviera and while last week was so-so in just a decent field, Bay Hill is a course I believe suits him quite a bit better.
But it's actually within the strokes-gained approach data that I see the real encouragement. This is a department in which McIlroy falls behind Scheffler, except not here. At Bay Hill, where there are fewer wedges, he's been inside the top 25 in approach play seven starts running, versus twice at Sawgrass, three times at Riviera and four times at Quail Hollow, by way of comparison.
He's averaging a stroke gained per round, which is about Scheffler's overall figure and is twice McIlroy's own lifetime average. Even in recent seasons, which have seen improvement in those wedges in particular, his Bay Hill numbers represent more than a 50% improvement on his expected approach stats. That's down to the nature of approach shots played here versus elsewhere.
Combine that with the way he's driving the ball and McIlroy has a mighty chance. And while those comparisons with last year's market have certain caveats, consider that Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele have all just about halved in price.
McIlroy's preparation has been near identical to last year and he's a couple of points too big. Back him to win and potentially return to the top of the world rankings.
Young gun ready to fire
It'll be fascinating to see where Hovland's game is around a course made for him and on balance he ought to be considered the main danger to the big two, though I do expect Xander Schauffele to play well.
Granted, that's not saying much, but he's putted nicely here in the past which would allay the major concern apart from the fact he is probably the one elite golfer at whom questions over strike-rate are entirely fair.
Ludvig Aberg has come a heck of a long way in the year that's passed since he finished just outside the top 20 in this as an amateur, but among the second wave in the betting I can't get away from CAMERON YOUNG.
We know the drill with Young: he remains winless on the PGA Tour and has even passed up a couple of chances on the DP World and Asian circuits. For someone who has done very little wrong in the heat of battle in major championships, there's been something missing.
Perhaps though that's just a little luck and it could all change at Bay Hill, a course he first played as a kid and has since returned to underline why it suits him so well as a professional. He was still just a promising rookie when 13th on debut, his performance helping secure a late Masters invite, and then last year he was inside the top 10 all week.
As you'd expect, both of these were powered by top-class driving and that's the level he's been operating at off the tee so far this year, while it's encouraging to see some solid approach work bar Pebble Beach, and even some improvements around the green, which tends not to be decisive here anyway.
It's the putter that should give us most cause for concern but Young was 13th on similar greens last week and seventh in Phoenix, and anything like that standard would make him a serious danger. In fact I would go as far as to say it'd make him close to a certainty to hit the top 10 given the state of his long-game at the moment.
As with McIlroy, stacks of drivers and longer approach shots both work in his favour and while he did have to come back on Monday for the finish of the Cognizant, rolling in a long birdie putt at 17 and adding another birdie at 18 should have him itching to get going again on Thursday.
"I would say the vast majority of holes out there are I think nice looking to me," is about as positive a line as you'll hear from an understated, dare I say media-reluctant player like Young, and he can show why he loves Bay Hill by contending once again.
Another fine Day at Bay Hill
Min Woo Lee's improved approach play in finishing second at PGA National could prove to be significant but I don't know as bookmakers are giving much away at 33/1 given two poor efforts here, while unfortunately the 66/1 shot I liked, Byeong Hun An, has been cut on Tuesday morning and has to be left out at 40 and 50/1.
Instead, I'll side with another past champion in JASON DAY to complete the staking plan.
The former world number one has three top-10 finishes in five starts so far this year, returning to the sort of form which preceded his victory in the Byron Nelson last May.
He was 10th at Bay Hill during that period but it's worth noting that his long-game at the time was not what it is now, with his approach work in particular having powered his last two finishes, at Pebble Beach (sixth) and Riviera (ninth).
But for a quiet run with the putter he'd have gone close to winning and I'm therefore hoping something as simple as a change in surface does the trick, particularly to these ones as he's gained strokes eight times in 10 visits and putted well when winning in 2016.
If anything his approach work has kept him from contending again but despite that Day has been on the fringes a further six times and if he can bring this improvement with his irons with him this week, that makes him a live one at a nice price.
Day is very well suited to a proper grind, he hits the ball as high as virtually anyone, and a second Bay Hill win is perfectly possible if everything falls together. I expect him to stick around close to the top of the leaderboard all week. Hopefully, this is the tournament where such expectations are finally met.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 05/03/24
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