Ben Coley bagged more DP World Tour profits with 125/1 shot Zander Lombard last week, and he's sweet on the favourite this time.
Golf betting tips: Andalucia Masters
5pts win Matthew Fitzpatrick at 13/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Soren Kjeldsen at 150/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Alejandro Canizares at 150/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Rikard Karlberg at 350/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Gonzalo F-Castano at 400/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Perhaps it's a nod to the history of the famed Real Club Valderrama that this week's Andalucia Masters is worth more than the Open de Espana, won in dazzling style by Jon Rahm on Sunday. Whatever the case, it means we've a field with slightly less star quality but undoubtedly greater depth, as several Race to Dubai hopefuls join those with other priorities at a course steeped in history.
Valderrama hosted the Ryder Cup in 1997, the first time the event had been held in continental Europe, and it frustrated the hell out of the Americans – plus some Europeans, even if they were less inclined to admit it. The course is unique among those on the circuit a quarter of a century on and provides a headache not just for those playing it, but for those invested in the sport in other ways.
On the one hand, this short, twisting, absurdly tight and maddeningly tricked-up layout does what many would like, punishing waywardness and suffocating golfers. If your main issue with the sport is that driver is a default setting through which courses are being made obsolete, then in some ways it ought to be for you. Driver at Valderrama can be a borderline masochistic pursuit.
But it's hard to escape the fact that Valderrama's way of swimming against the tide is unsatisfactory, penalising good shots at times and going too far in the other direction. Whatever your own preferences, it's not exactly a solution which can be applied across the board, even if you might hear one or two players simplify things in that way throughout the course of this week's tournament.
Strong case for the defence
For four days a year, I love it. Much more and I would hate it. And whether he'd go as far as saying that himself, I suspect that deep down, defending champion MATTHEW FITZPATRICK feels somewhat the same.
Here's a player who has once upon a time grumbled about the state of the game and how much its direction of travel harmed players like him, whose stock in trade was accuracy over power. Fitzpatrick was laughed at when he claimed at the 2020 US Open that he could add distance if he really wanted to as he languished behind the eventual winner, but he's since proved the doubters wrong.
Perhaps that's the moment the penny dropped – why not go and do it, then? So he did and, fittingly, he went on to win the 2022 edition of the major most tilted towards those with extra yards in their locker. This version of Fitzpatrick now has them and no mistake, making him one of the best and most rounded golfers in the sport.
I think he'll be fine scaling back here at Valderrama, where he was thoroughly pleased with himself for last year's display of poise, patience, grit and class, one which saw him triumph by three shots in six-under – the same score which took him to that fabulous US Open win and underlined that he really does get better when the going gets tough.
Returning to defend his title, Fitzpatrick is by far the best player in the field and looks cracking value at anything upwards of 5/1. The fact he's defended the European Masters before bodes well and he's also been runner-up when defending the DP World Tour Championship and the Nordea Masters, so there really are no concerns as to any distractions or obligations which might fall his way.
Valderrama plainly suits, as it's a course where he can showcase his short-game and where the range of clubs required only adds to his advantage, with a debut missed cut here a red herring. He was going through some personal difficulties at the time and never raised a gallop, but put that all behind him upon his overdue return.
Not only that, but it isn't so good for most of his main rivals. Min Woo Lee is exquisite around the green and that helps but I'd want to see him do it again here before taking last year's runner-up finish as hard evidence, ditto Ryan Fox who finished fourth, and I'll be impressed if Rasmus Hojgaard can adapt to its demands so soon in his career.
Robert MacIntyre is so aggressive that you have to worry that his approach will backfire at some stage, Thomas Detry leans heavily on the driver and flies in from Las Vegas, and the likes of Jordan Smith, Adrian Meronk, Antoine Rozner and Callum Shinkwin are also far better suited to a course where they aren't forced to club down off the tee and rein in their natural tendencies.
No doubt one or two of those mentioned will overcome such concerns but of all the best players in the field, Fitzpatrick is the one best suited to Valderrama, and that only adds to the advantage his class provides. Throw in a slightly unfortunate second to MacIntyre two starts ago and you have some very strong recent form, with the Dunhill Links only underlining it as he's never been a factor there but played well alongside his mum.
He'll be all business again here as there's another big reason to end his breakthrough year on a high: the aforementioned Race to Dubai. Fitzpatrick currently lies second to McIlroy and will close the gap to around 300 points if winning here. It's surely a big goal as one of the few things he's yet to accomplish, and this prolific DP World Tour winner might take some beating this week.
Roll the dice for place money
With the chief threats all addressed (Lee the clear pick of them), the likes of Fabrizio Zanotti and Alex Bjork are, by contrast, really well suited to this challenge. Bjork placed for us at a big price last year but is now up there alongside Rozner, a superior player, and it's hard to get excited about Zanotti given that his game does have a glaring weakness and he holds no secrets at 39.
The odds beside the name of 2019 runner-up Adri Arnaus stand out – he was popular at 16/1 last week and is now three-times the price – but it's not really a course which is built for him and I'd be more interested in compatriots Jorge Campillo and Adrian Otaegui for all that neither boasts the same ability as Arnaus does.
That really is the point about Valderrama: not so much a leveller but a game changer. If this was what golf looked like every week, then either the world rankings would look very different, or those currently dominating them would've had to show just how talented they are by honing a different set of skills.
As such I'll stick to a certain type, that being fairways-first, capable of stacking up greens hit and, ideally, with a dazzling short-game. That area of the game is hard to predict and seldom decisive, but it has been here – both winners prior to Fitzpatrick hit fewer than 50% greens in regulation, missing in the region of 10 per round but getting up and down consistently.
That's why GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO is one of two real fliers in a tournament which can throw up some seemingly strange leaderboards.
This veteran Spaniard led the DP World Tour in strokes-gained around-the-green in 2020 and it remains a strength along with his approach play. Off the tee he struggles, but the rules are different here and by no means is it guaranteed that the best drivers, like Smith and Shinkwin, can put that to use in the way they'd like.
If Fernandez-Castano can hit a few more fairways he might just surprise a few at a course where he's made 10 cuts in 12, and where last year he made it through to the weekend despite an opening 77 to lie 99th, climbing to 34th come the end of round two.
He's been making weekends lately, too, and would've again last week but for a three-putt at his final hole. Prior to that he was 34th in very good company in Italy, on a course where driver was key, and he played some solid stuff when on the fringes for a while in Crans, too.
That's in contrast to his form at this time last year and with both Valderrama cuts coming by a single shot, this is where he's at his most comfortable. We're likely playing for places at best but he's been a class act in his day and he's worth a small bet to hit the frame at odds of 250/1 and bigger.
Sticking with the Spaniards, this is the home course of ALEJANDRO CANIZARES and he's represented it well, making the cut on all eight starts here and finishing in the top 25 on five occasions.
Last year's 25th place followed back-to-back missed cuts and was powered by his approach work, ranking fifth, and it was a similar story when he arrived in poor form in 2020 but ranked ninth in approaches and comfortably made the weekend.
This time he's been 28th and 20th on his last two starts and again it's courtesy of that quality approach play which has always been the staple of his best golf. Canizares was first in the field at the Dunhill Links and then seventh last week, where his short-game kept him from finishing higher than 20th.
That department of his game comes and goes – along with his irons it's what helped him to seventh place at Crans recently – so with his putter generally reliable and even his driving better of late, he looks to be in the sort of shape required to again play well in front of friends and family.
He needs to at 159th on the Race to Dubai and if he can hit as many fairways as he has the last twice, ranking eighth and 12th, then we only need his strengths to be on display to get him right in the mix. He would by no means be a shock champion and looks a live runner for the home team.
Ramsay ready for a return to form
That Crans performance from Canizares is one of several pieces of evidence that it's a decent guide to Valderrama, including two wins for Fitzpatrick, and former Swiss champ RICHIE RAMSAY can again do his bit for the comparison.
In fairness to the Scot he really has done that already, finishing third behind Sergio Garcia on his debut here and adding 29th and 11th on his next two visits. Since then he's missed both cuts but each time by a single shot, and it's notable that in both instances, his ball-striking was very good.
That's also true in the here and now, despite a modest run of results since his emotional Hillside win back in July. Ramsay has played seven times since without cracking the top 40 and it's that which explains his price, but the foundations of his game do remain strong and he can get back to his best here.
Ramsay is inside the top 10 in scrambling for the season and wasn't far off that last year and rather than demonstrate his silky touch, these stats confirm that his long-game is so good, that his misses tend to be minor. Taking aim at these tiny greens that accuracy is a big asset and it really hasn't dipped since winning the Cazoo Classic.
Last week's 71-71 for a missed cut isn't much of a worry and my message is that if he putts well, he'll go well. At 66/1 and upwards that's a chance worth taking, as Ramsay knows full well this is his best remaining chance to double up for the year.
The only other player I like at less than 100/1 is Marcel Schneider, the impressive German who is really finding his feet. He played well here in 2020, very early on in his DP World Tour career, and with 11 top-30 finishes in his last 17 starts is now fully established as a quality operator at this level, one without a real weakness.
Veteran Dane can go well again
He can go well but this quirky course might just allow for a veteran winner in the shape of SOREN KJELDSEN, who is preferred at twice the price.
Like Canizares, Kjeldsen has a blemish-free record at Valderrama, playing well in most of his 14 appearances, the highlight of which was surely his victory here in 2008. Runner-up either side and also fourth in 2016, we know by now that it's the best venue for him anywhere in Europe.
That makes it one of the few courses at which I could envisage selecting the veteran Dane, who hits it nowhere and looked for a while like he was cruising towards retirement as his talented son took over as the family's best golfer.
But the fire has returned to Kjeldsen over the last 18 months, particularly this summer during which time he's finished seventh in the Hero Open and fifth in the BMW PGA Championship, where he shared the 54-hole lead with Viktor Hovland and outplayed his fellow Scandinavian for much of the final round.
Since then he might've gone a little quiet but Italy was far too long and he putted terribly, yet he still made the cut. In France, he got off to a hot start before back-pedalling but still continued to hit quality approaches, and then in the Dunhill Links he shot 70 at the Old Course and 67 at Kingsbarns, missing the cut by one having been at Carnoustie during that miserable Friday.
All in all his form remains solid and I like the fact his putting seemingly improved at St Andrews. That was the only thing which prevented me from selecting him at slightly shorter odds in Paris, and his blend of driving accuracy (14th) and quality iron play (27th) make him an ideal type for this even before considering his course history.
If he putts well, surely Kjeldsen has it in him to do what he did at Wentworth and compete with his young rivals, at a course where all those years of experience count for plenty.
Connor Syme is a player I like and after another Scottish winner last week, this time on the Challenge Tour, he made the shortlist along with Jazz Janewattananond, an eye-catching price for one who can be electric around the greens and should in theory like Valderrama more than would appear based on a poor debut in 2021.
There are plenty of others you could give a chance to here who would appeal almost nowhere else on the schedule including Steven Brown and Ricardo Gouveia, but I'll finish with a player at a similarly huge price in RIKARD KARLBERG.
While the market has cottoned onto how well Edoardo Molinari played at the weekend, Karlberg wasn't far off with his pair of 66s to climb inside the top 20. It's his second such finish in six starts since I selected him in Northern Ireland, where he missed the cut due to a poor putting week.
Back then I referenced some improving results and positivity from the Swede on social media, and he's kept on progressing since. In fact over his last five starts he's gained 18 strokes with his approaches from just 15 measured rounds, the sort of figures usually reserved for the very best iron players on the circuit.
The consequence of this is that when he's putted above average he's finished 15th and 17th; when he's putted poorly, he's struggled. That's a nice profile for a player quoted at 400/1 and you can find more positives by digging beneath the surface, such as the fact he was 21st through 54 holes of a high-class Italian Open on a course too long for him and in deeper waters than these.
It's true that his form figures here (MC-74) hardly leap off the page but it was only that putter which really hurt him on his latest visit, and the one before came at a terrible time as he'd only just returned from 18 months away. Unsurprisingly, Valderrama was unforgiving and yet still he was far from disgraced.
Karlberg does look a decent fit on the face of things, not least because he's twice won at the tight, fiddly, quirky and not-for-everyone Delhi GC. That and his clear preference towards tree-lined courses point towards Valderrama being a good fit if he can find some fairways to bring out the best in that red-hot iron play, plus a quality short-game.
Posted at 1700 BST on 10/10/22
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