Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship preview and best bets
Calum Hill can delight the locals in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship according to Ben Coley, who has six selections.
Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
3pts win Brooks Koepka at 28/1 (General; 28-30.0 via exchanges)
3pts win Alex Noren at 30/1 (Betfred, BetVictor; 36-38.0 via exchanges)
1.5pts e.w. Peter Uihlein at 60/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Calum Hill at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. David Micheluzzi at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Some people consider motivation in top-level golf to be a given. After all, you can win a million dollars in a humdrum event and many millions more in a good one, so why wouldn't players apply themselves one hundred percent of the time?
I tend to think that this view relies on a belief that sportspeople are somehow superhuman, and therefore believe it to be flawed. In fact I'd go as far as saying there's simply no way that every professional golfer applies themselves in every round, not in the way we'd perhaps all like. Everyone, whatever their job, has days when it's hard to focus and when the margins are paper-thin, as they are in elite sport, that can make all the difference.
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is ripe for some of the best players to go through the motions a little, or at least to abandon their usual levels of focus. This is inherently an individual sport but here, playing with a pro-am partner over six hours, professional golfers simply wouldn't be able to stay in 'the zone' even if they wanted to. Many will therefore see how things go and, if necessary, lock in come the crunch.
For others, it's a welcome escape. If you've spent all year, just you and your caddie(s), grinding to make cuts, the format might help to guide the mind away from pounds and points, those very real things that would otherwise come sharply into focus at this time of year. Cards will be saved by one big week in Scotland, but not necessarily by those who tee off on Thursday staring the actual importance of this lucrative tournament in the face.
This is a unique event on the DP World Tour calendar and that's probably why it's thrown up some real specialists, with a player like Daniel Gavins finishing sixth in his first two goes and Joakim Lagergren having threatened to win no fewer than four times. We've had veteran winners at huge odds, like Oliver Wilson and David Howell, but right now the run of somewhat predictable champions stands at eight, despite the vagaries of links golf.
The most recent two, Ryan Fox and Matthew Fitzpatrick, had cause to focus. Fox was playing very much with his former pro-am partner in mind, Shane Warne having passed away earlier in the year. Fitzpatrick meanwhile was teaming up with his mum, Susan, and confessed to being far more concerned with winning the team title than he had been capturing the individual event. In the end, he walked away with both.
"It was kind of a bit of a freewheeling week and just playing with my mum and trying to enjoy it as best I can and see what happened," said Fitzpatrick, who'd just won the Ryder Cup with Europe. Fox meanwhile reflected on the significance of winning for his friend, Warne. "It means a lot to win this event," he said. "We were great mates. I really wanted to try to do something special for Warney and I'm pretty proud to have been able to accomplish that."
For those asking, among the lads-with-their-dads this week are Rory McIlroy (Gerry), Robert MacIntyre ('just a grass-cutter' Doug) and Tyrrell Hatton (Jeff), and victory for any one of the three would come as no surprise. McIlroy has done everything but win over the past few weeks, Hatton is a two-time champion with an exceptional record in the event, and MacIntyre has taken his form to a new level since combining with his dad to capture the Canadian Open.
Jon Rahm, however, opened as favourite, and that surprised me. Perhaps it's because he's finally back playing the golf we know he can play and that we have a more recent reminder of his brilliance after he finished runner-up in the Open de Espana. But surely it ignores the fact that he's here not because he wants to be, but because he has to be.
Rahm needs to retain his DP World Tour membership in order to take part in the Ryder Cup and this is one of just a few events remaining for him to take part in and meet the minimum-starts criteria. With his wife having given birth just prior to last week's tournament, where he blew a fantastic chance to make history, surely there's a good chance his mind is elsewhere.
Rahm being too short doesn't necessarily make McIlroy too big and with rain around at the weekend, I can't see any great appeal at the very top of the betting. Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry were all eye-catchers in Spain and all three look solid, but I want to be more speculative given the nature of the event and the conditions.
Swede success for Scotland specialist?
There's room for two realistic winners and I'll begin with ALEX NOREN, who I think is a massive price on the exchanges, where he's almost 40/1 at the time of writing.
Having made his last eight cuts in this event come rain or shine, six of them being top-20s, Noren is a real Dunhill Links specialist. He was runner-up for us on his last appearance here, in fact, and probably ought to have won that renewal given how few putts he holed late in the tournament.
He's back now after an excellent season on the PGA Tour, where he's been banging on the door regularly enough including when contending for the BMW Championship. After that he headed into Wentworth fresh and, despite hitting the ball well, had to settle for 30th following a rare off-week with the putter.
Before all this he was 10th in the Scottish Open, an event he's won before, and then 13th in the Open, so we're talking about an in-form links specialist who has proven he can adapt to the unique demands of this event, and whose most recent links golf is among the very best in the field.
At 89th in the Race to Dubai, he also has plenty to play for as a win would qualify him for the two season-ending events in the Middle East, in turn boosting his Ryder Cup prospects. We saw what that did for Matt Wallace throughout September, and Noren's motivation, at the end of a long year, is similarly strong, especially as he's also 48th in the world and therefore playing for starts in majors.
Having shot rounds of 64 at Carnoustie and at St Andrews, plus 65 at the generally easier Kingsbarns, he's got most bases covered. I expect the Swede to feature as he so often has in this event.
On Kingsbarns, an important note if you're betting in-play. Though it is historically easier than Carnoustie, significantly so on a sunny, calm day, it can be the worst place by play in the wind. More exposed than the latter and without the driveable par-fours of the Old Course where wind sometimes can be more help than hindrance, Kingsbarns becomes devilishly difficult if it blows.
At the moment there's not enough breeze in the forecast to worry about but if something changes, be wary of those who face the supposedly easier challenge in the more difficult conditions. There could be real value in looking to those at Carnoustie in such circumstances, or the Old Course, and away from Kingsbarns.
Without knowing quite how things will unfold, the other big name I found hard to overlook was BROOKS KOEPKA.
Three top-10s from four starts in this plus another in the Open at St Andrews, the American has proven himself under these conditions many times before and I suspect he'll mean business, as he didn't really need to play here in the way that Rahm does.
Yes, Koepka is 66th in the world and can re-enter the top 50 by winning, but that alone surely wouldn't be enough. His victory in the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, plus the four majors he'd already won, means he won't be struggling to get into the majors for a good while yet.
Maybe he's here to do somebody a favour, but maybe his late commitment reflects the fact that he's in great shape and wants to show it back at St Andrews, which he calls his favourite course in the world. Koepka doesn't always come across as a big fan of golf, but its history definitely appeals to his ego and he'd love to win here.
Certainly, he's playing well enough to do it, winning LIV Greenbrier, finishing sixth in Chicago, and then thrashing Kevin Na 6&5 in the team championship only to be let down by his teammates. Generally speaking he's been hitting a lot of greens and putting well and with a relatively calm forecast set for the days ahead, his power is bound to be an asset at the Old Course in particular.
My approach is to split stakes between Noren and Koepka win-only, especially if you can mop up those best prices about the former. Regardless, I'm content to give up the place part on this occasion.
Koepka's fellow LIV Golf raider PETER UIHLEIN also likes it here and is the first each-way bet at 50/1 and bigger.
Having been runner-up on his Dunhill Links debut, Uihlein has managed finishes of 18th, 10th and 22nd across just four subsequent appearances and is particularly effective at St Andrews.
"I think it's a good test," he said last year. "I have good history here. Just love it. The golf is pure over here. I like when it gets windy and challenging. It's just a lot of fun and something I enjoy doing."
The former amateur star is one of those who seems to have flourished for the security LIV Golf provides, perhaps not a surprise given his troubles with injuries, and when he dipped out of it to play in an Asian Tour event in August, he absolutely trotted up, beating Andy Sullivan by seven shots.
That was in England and he now returns to Scotland having been 20th and 15th in two subsequent LIV events, before beating Dustin Johnson in the team championship. Granted, that's nothing like the achievement it once was, but should still provide a timely boost.
For Uihlein, reaching the sort of world ranking that would earn him access to majors is almost impossible while playing on the LIV Golf circuit, but he climbed more than 200 places with that International Series win and another here would have him close to where he'd need to be for the PGA Championship at least.
He's won a DP World Tour event by the sea before as well as the US Amateur at the links-like Chambers Bay and I see him going close granted a bit of luck.
Completing a trio of Americans, I also like the altogether different skill set of the underrated ANDREW PUTNAM.
He's been frustrating to follow lately as a typically hot putter whose strong ball-striking has gone unrewarded as that club lets him down somewhat, but as long as he continues to pound greens, chances will arrive at some point.
And one could arrive here, because he's always been strong by the coast, he won't mind cool weather having grown up in Washington, and he's generally travelled well. Back in 2018 he was fourth in China, then the following summer finished fourth in the Scottish Open, 32nd at Portrush, and 21st in the BMW PGA.
Only because of his putter did he miss the cut back at The Renaissance in July but just one of his subsequent 14 rounds has been over-par, and there was enough to like about his comeback spin in the Procore Championship, where he ranked second in fairways and first in greens.
Putnam has never really cracked that course (seven tries, best of 30th) and I think he might step up considerably now returning to Scotland. He's made clear before how much he loves playing in this part of the world and while his lack of power might handicap him at the Old Course, if that putter lights up he can contend.
Ultimately, I think we're getting plenty on the price for the fact that he's American and while they're yet to have the winner of this championship, many have come close including players of his calibre.
Putnam, who has top-10s in the two big pro-ams on the PGA Tour, is a bet at 66/1 and upwards.
Another home winner on the links?
Antoine Rozner has been fourth and 10th across the last two editions, due reward for having finally figured out the Old Course, and he's an obvious each-way option. The issue is he's putted badly for months now and in a high-class field, that will have to change – though it should be said he's holed more than his share here in the past.
Similar comments apply to how well Matthieu Pavon has putted in this championship and he could do better with his Open de Espana defence out of the way, but at close to twice the price of these two I am pretty keen on CALUM HILL.
There's something about this Scotsman I like and I can't quite put my finger on it. Perhaps it's the fact he was so good in the mix on the Challenge Tour and then took his chance well on the DP World Tour a few summers ago, while he hung around impressively for us in the Scandinavian Mixed, too.
On the face of it his form has dipped a little since, but I don't think Wentworth is his course and a missed cut on the number there doesn't worry me at all. He'd also narrowly missed out in the Scottish Open, but three weeks ago was seventh through 54 holes of the Irish Open, giving us some encouraging links form to go on.
In fact, four times in his last 10 starts he's been bang there at halfway, twice contending on Sunday, and at 50th in the Race to Dubai it's been a good season. No doubt he'll be aware that only the top 50 get invited to the DP World Tour Championship, where he had to withdraw injured on his sole appearance to date.
One more good cheque will take care of that and to my eye he's the sneaky Scot in this field, having produced form figures of 26-17-MC-25 in the event. The missed cut came in 2022 and is easily excused, as it was his first start in six months following another injury setback, so a fairer view of his form is three top-30s in three appearances.
Strong off the tee and with a wonderful short-game, Hill is a great fit for the Old Course, he has a 66 to his name at Kingsbarns, and last year he opened up with a round of 67 at Carnoustie. Stuck back at Kingbarns in the worst of the weather, he did well to finish where he did and I reckon his game is in better shape one year on.
Aussie looks underestimated
Regular readers will not be surprised to learn that I had any number in mind for this, including former Scottish Open winner Brandon Stone, former Dunhill Links winner Thorbjorn Olesen, and future star Tom McKibbin. All of them have shown enough lately to be of some interest and you can ignore Olesen's Wentworth missed cut, as he hates it there.
I also had a good rummage around the Race to Dubai rankings, because we've seen several card-saving performances in this big-money event. Another past champion, Oliver Wilson, is close to salvaging his year and has made a lot of cuts lately. Matt Southgate hasn't but comes alive in this as could Daan Huizing, 10th last year.
I even thought there were some small positives in the games of flushers Tom Lewis and Callum Shinkwin, both of whom have excellent records in the Dunhill Links but arrive seemingly out of form. Landing on the right one is the difficulty and ultimately, I felt Shinkwin had dropped hints in the past whereas right now he's doing anything but.
So, I'll finish off with DAVID MICHELUZZI, who doesn't deserve to be a 200/1 shot and can in fact be backed at closer to 400/1 if you're willing to bet to six places with smaller firms.
Micheluzzi is a young Australian who has generally kept on improving since turning professional just before the Covid pandemic struck, and he's safe for 2025 despite playing just 19 events so far this season.
At 77th in the Race to Dubai, those two, lucrative tournaments in the Middle East are within reach and where better to seal the deal than in an event he's played twice before, finishing 36th two years ago and then improving for 14th place last year.
Notably, the first of those came after a long break at the end of the Aussie season and the second was his first tour-level start since the Open in July, so these were two mighty performances in the circumstances, particularly as he was without status for both of them.
Signing off with a 66 at Carnoustie 12 months ago shows what he can do there, and this time he'll tee off having played six times since the DP World Tour resumption, including a decent 39th last week, 31st at the Belfry, and 10th in the Danish Golf Championship.
Micheluzzi boasts a brilliant short-game and I reckon he can score around the Old Course, so he makes plenty of appeal at massive odds in an event where, for all the star quality at the head of the betting, you can be sure we'll see a few more surprise contenders come Sunday.
Posted at 1730 BST on 30/09/24
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