Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley continued an excellent run with winners at 9/2, 9/1 and 11/1 at the Ryder Cup. Get his best bets for the Dunhill Links.
Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links
1.5pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 35/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Dean Burmester at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Calum Hill at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Mikael Lindberg at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
There are many faults with the golfing calendar but sometimes it is exactly as it should be, and that's the case when it comes to the timing of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
It's of course possible to argue that a week off would have done us all some good, but the DP World Tour is entering a vital, perhaps career-shaping part of the season, and this big-money event has seen many a player do enough to keep their membership for the following year.
But the fact is that as I write, the Ryder Cup finished a day ago, and rolling into another rank-and-file event would feel underwhelming. Instead, we get to go to St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns for a very different version of the game, played in the company of celebrities of varying category, and with tournament-winning pressure delayed as long as possible.
This event has been as volatile as you might expect. There have been predictable winners galore, including Ryan Fox last year, but Oliver Wilson's maximum-odds stunner is not the only shock. Golf has enough variables as it is, but in this tournament we've the potential for a draw bias multiplied by three, the inbuilt vagaries of links golf, and a stagger that doesn't unwind until Saturday night.
On that last point, I do think it probably helps lesser-known players who've played well over the first 36 holes, to know that Saturday is the last of three rounds of rotation. It must feel very different to teeing off with the lead in an ordinary event and, as at Pebble Beach on the PGA Tour, it is part of a number of reasons anything can happen here.
I'm not sure I'd want to be backing anyone at single-figure prices and that's before we ponder whether Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick will be on cloud nine, or ready for a break. Fleetwood perhaps will see this as the chance to put the seal on a fine year's golf and knows he probably should've won at the Old Course already, but if he's to do so on Sunday it'll have to make for a satisfying story rather than a winning bet.
Bob worth a bet to cap dream fortnight
History shows us a bit of everything where the Ryder Cup hangover effect is concerned. Martin Kaymer won here despite being involved in a Monday finish in Wales, emulating Padraig Harrington eight years earlier, while Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton shared second place following their victory in Paris in 2018, just as Rory McIlroy had in 2014.
All three of the returning heroes from Medinah struggled and only Kaymer played well among the six coming home from Hazeltine, but as if to dispel the idea that the flight was to blame, all three players who came to Scotland from Whistling Straits were in contention two years ago. Hatton probably should've got the better of Danny Willett, too.
It is a mixed bag which tells us nothing much but while unwilling to take short prices about the big two, I am a little surprised ROBERT MACINTYRE is as big as 40/1 and have to include him on value grounds at 33/1-plus.
MacIntyre enjoyed a fabulous Ryder Cup in the end, earning 2.5 points from three matches. That made him the leading European rookie and one of just three players to go unbeaten for the week, the others being Hatton and Jon Rahm.
The detail of course reveals that he has Justin Rose to thank for a good chunk of it but it was a dream debut however you dress it and to cap it off with a singles win, against the reigning US Open champion no less, was deeply impressive. Anyone watching knows that 12th match mattered right up until it was nearly finished and Bob held firm.
Having enjoyed Sunday night's celebrations, who knows what state he'll be in, but as a Scotsman who was narrowly denied a famous victory the last time he played at home, surely there's some incentive to ride this wave for a few more days.
And that isn't the only reason MacIntyre has to take every event seriously from now through to November. He's currently sixth on the list of 10 players who will earn PGA Tour membership via the Race to Dubai and having been trying to do that since 2021 until focusing on Rome this year, this is his best chance yet to earn the ticket every aspiring golfer wants.
Having had a taste of competition in the US, where he's acquitted himself well, and shown that he can compete with the best the PGA Tour has to offer last week, MacIntyre will realise the path to Bethpage in two years leads Stateside. And were he to go ahead and win this at the Old Course on Sunday, it would be mission accomplished.
Can he do it? Well, his form in the event shows finished of 26th and 20th from three starts and he was superb on a miserable Friday last year, while 34th place in the Open, courtesy of a big weekend, is another indication that he has all the tools to tackle the Old Course in particular.
Wider links form comes courtesy of other Open performances in 2019 and 2021 plus finishing second at The Renaissance and while there were form concerns entering last week, his long-game has often been good lately. That seemed to be the case in his singles win and perhaps he can iron out some issues with the putter.
This unique event has only been going for 20 years and we've not only had a couple of repeat winners in Harrington and Willett, but several other close calls – Wilson had been runner-up, as had Kaymer, and since the second of his two victories Hatton could well have doubled that tally to four.
Joakim Lagergren and Tapio Pulkkanen are examples of fairly low-ranking DP World Tour members who seem to relish this challenge, a blend of courses, atmosphere and playing partners no doubt contributing towards that, so I'm keen to stick with former champion THORBJORN OLESEN.
The Dane was excellent in France, finishing 10th when selected there and, for the second time in three starts, producing some top-class approach play numbers. Better off the tee than you're ever likely to see him, it was a shame he had a quiet week on and around the greens and goes down as a chance missed.
Olesen had a quiet run after his victory in Asia earlier this year, thereby missing out on the chance to return to the Ryder Cup side, but he's been really solid since August and I expect will be inspired by having watched Europe win back the trophy at Marco Simone.
That win in the Thailand Classic was the seventh of his career, all bar one of which have come under low-scoring conditions, and he's well on track to reestablish himself as one of the best players on this circuit. In fact, like MacIntyre, he's right in the mix for PGA Tour cards and we know he can compete out there, too.
With his game purring and his form in this event featuring not only a convincing 2015 win but a previous second to Branden Grace, Olesen appeals as one of the biggest threats to the two favourites and the defending champion.
Burmester best of the invited guests
How much attention it attracts remains to be seen but this is one DP World Tour event where you can't help but notice the influx of LIV Golf players, including Talor Gooch and former Dunhill Links runner-up, Peter Uihlein.
Presumably South African businessman Johann Rupert has something to do with that and there's a good chance at least one of these LIV players is in the mix, with DEAN BURMESTER preferred narrowly to Louis Oosthuizen, who I can't quite get a firm handle on.
Oosthuizen's form on that circuit is a little underwhelming but he did finish 23rd in the Open, albeit thanks to his putter. On balance I make Burmester more likely to win an event such as this one and he's an ideal type for it, which he showed when seventh in 2021 before finishing 11th in the following year's Open Championship.
Big-hitting can unlock all kinds of opportunities at St Andrews especially, as well as Kingsbarns, and Burmester is one of the biggest in this field. He's playing well, too, finishing inside the top 20 in every LIV Golf start since May, and taking seventh after a slow start on the Asian Tour in August.
That event, the St Andrews Bay Championship, was held nearby at Fairmont St Andrews and while comparisons with the Old Course are a stretch, coastal golf under low-scoring conditions is absolutely fine for this aggressive slugger who makes birdies for fun.
Burmester should get a nice draw for the first three rounds and if he continues to play to the levels he's reached in 2023, he'll be a factor. Comparing across tours isn't easy but we know what he can do at this level and DataGolf have him about the equal of Jordan Smith, as solid a yardsick as you'll find.
Paddy Power and Betfair's 40/1 looks incredibly generous and he'd be a bet at 25/1 and bigger.
Matt Wallace was part of the BBC radio team in Italy last week and I wouldn't be surprised to see him fly out of the traps here, but at bigger prices it was Antoine Rozner's name that stood out. Fourth last year, Rozner is better than odds of 70/1 suggest and it was tempting to side with him despite a run of three missed cuts.
Preference though is for CALUM HILL, who like Burmester has a blend of power and putting prowess that appeals around the Old Course especially.
So far in his young career Hill has gone 26-17-MC here, carding a poor final round on debut when within touching distance of the leaders, improving the following year, and then finding himself at Kingsbarns in miserable whether on his latest appearance.
On that note, punters should be aware that Kingsbarns, far more exposed than Carnoustie, might be the worst place to be if rain and wind does arrive. There's not much in the forecast but this is Scotland we're talking about, and being at Carnoustie in the worst of the weather can work out in a player's favour – counterintuitive though that may sound.
Back to Hill and he's been playing really well lately having completed his return from injury. In the mix in Ireland and then again early on at Wentworth, he underlined the overall positive state of his game with 10th place in France, a fine effort having sat outside the cut line following the opening round.
That was his debut at Le Golf National and these courses should be far more suitable for a player who has been driving it really well all year, but whose approach play comes and goes. Catch him on a good week with the irons and he has all the tools to contend, while it's worth noting his win in 2021 came after a top-10 finish.
Get with Guido
Tom McKibbin could take to this in the way Richard Mansell did last year and both were considered, but GUIDO MIGLIOZZI looks better value despite the obvious risks.
Migliozzi's record here isn't the best but he does have a top-20 finish to his name, and I think it ought to play to his strengths. He's contended at Yas Links and Bernardus, too, and those are two courses I'd suggest offer really good clues; Victor Perez, champion here in 2019, has won at both and he beat Fox at the latter.
Designed by Kyle Phillips, just as Kingsbarns is, they're links-style courses which ask somewhat similar questions and the fact Migliozzi has played so well at both really encourages me, as does the way he's played of late.
Granted, he was disappointing when selected at Wentworth, but this is much easier and he isn't much shorter in the betting after a good title defence in France. Migliozzi ranked 12th off the tee there, his third good driving display in four, and in ranking 19th in approaches it was a similar story with his irons.
He'd been putting well prior to that and while we all know he's a player who can flatter to deceive, into that bargain comes winning form, a touch of class, and even the likelihood that he's sparked into life by watching some of his Hero Cup teammates win a Ryder Cup on Italian soil.
Such is the nature of this event that any number of outsiders appealed, especially those with power at their fingertips such as Freddy Schott and Louis de Jager.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat has course form and has started to strike the ball well; Aldrich Potgieter hits it miles, played well on the Sunshine Tour last time, and could pop up at some stage.
My vote however goes to the big-hitting MIKAEL LINDBERG, not least because of that Bernardus form-line having been 12th there back in May.
The Swede had really struggled to establish himself prior to an improved display in the Netherlands but since then has played plenty of good golf, not least with 23rd place in a high-class Irish Open and then a mid-pack finish at Wentworth.
Missing the cut by two in Paris doesn't bother me in the slightest and it was all down to one hole anyway. Despite taking eight at the 17th hole in round two, Lindberg did a lot right and for the third event in succession produced some genuinely excellent strokes-gained approach figures.
Long off the tee and tidy around the green, it's those irons which had generally held him back but if he's found something he can run with, we should expect his driver to begin to fire again on courses which allow for it in a way that Wentworth, Le Golf National and to some extent the K Club did not.
Seeing compatriots Vincent Norrman and Ludvig Aberg win over the last five or six weeks is no bad thing and perhaps he can become the latest Scandinavian to look right at home in Scotland.
Posted at 1700 BST on 02/10/23
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