Ben Coley's golf betting tips: AdventHealth Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley bagged 33/1 and 200/1 winners on the Korn Ferry Tour from just three previews last year. He has five tips for the AdventHealth Championship.
Golf betting tips: AdventHealth Championship
1.5pts e.w. Alejandro Tosti at 28/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Kevin Dougherty at 40/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Joe Highsmith at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Augusto Nunez at 50/1 (Coral, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. John Augenstein at 150/1 (Coral, BoyleSport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The Korn Ferry Tour serves up a wide variety of tests, from early-season trips to the Bahamas and the breeze encountered there to the end-of-season pressure cooker at Victoria National. In between, the circuit visits a quirky course at altitude in Boise and many other places that the PGA Tour does not, the likes of Utah, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri.
We're in the latter this week for the AdventHealth Championship at Blue Hills and there can be no doubt whatsoever where this tournament slots in. For the bigger hitters on the circuit, it is one of two golden opportunities during the first half of the season, the other having come just a couple of weeks ago at the Suncoast Classic. That event reminded us that golf doesn't always follow the script: it was won by a player who relies on hitting fairways rather than bombs.
Still, order should be restored this week. Blue Hills is where Cameron Young won the first of his back-to-back titles in 2021 and he's since established himself among the top one percent in terms of distance off the tee. A year later, Trevor Cone beat Taylor Montgomery and MJ Daffue. All of them ended the season ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance and Cone currently lies fifth in the equivalent PGA Tour standings, two places behind Young, Daffue and Montgomery not far behind.
This chunky par 72 is no picnic and ranked among the hardest courses on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, one of just four with over-par scoring averages. Perhaps that's why distance has been such an advantage, because three of the four par-fives simply must be taken advantage of and the other is a beast.
One way or another the very longest drivers in this field are at a big advantage and I just prefer ALEJANDRO TOSTI to Chris Gotterup at the head of the betting.
Tosti brings recent PGA Tour form to the table having finished 10th behind the likes of Tony Finau and Jon Rahm in Mexico, showcasing his driving prowess both there and at Quail Hollow subsequently, where he ranked sixth in strokes-gained off-the-tee.
At this level he'd produced four top-25s in succession prior to the rise in grade, including 22nd at the aforementioned Suncoast Classic, and his rookie season is beginning to gather pace. If he does get himself a card, perhaps he'll go on to prove that his strong, long game is better served by the PGA Tour but he's more than capable of winning at this level along the way.
"I've been playing really good for a long time," was his verdict in Mexico, where he spoke about how sure he is that he belongs at that level, and he should return to the Korn Ferry Tour believing that he's among the players to beat.
A world-class amateur before turning professional, Florida resident Tosti was outstanding on the LatinoAmerica Tour last season, and with proven winning form both there and at mini-tour level together with his recent exploits in much better company, that's certainly how I see things.
Tosti is long off the tee but KEVIN DOUGHERTY is longer still and this must be a good chance for him to capitalise on a strong start to the season.
Dougherty has been around a while now and is well-established as one of the biggest hitters on the circuit, but he's been stuck on the Korn Ferry Tour for five seasons having failed to convert his winning chances and generally lacked consistency.
This is his strongest start to a season since 2018, however, with three top-10s in eight, and fifth place at the Suncoast Classic was eye-catching with this in mind. His record there previously wasn't up to much but, like Blue Hills, it's a good fit on paper; he held the lead on his own after rounds two and three but was swamped on Sunday.
Dougherty has only played this course once and finished 38th when he arrived on the back of a quiet run of form and played poorly for months thereafter, enough to suggest that he should be full of confidence teeing it up here again with 25 solid rounds behind him since missing the cut on his first start in four months back in January.
There's obviously a nagging concern over his lack of silverware but a course like this will always provide him with his best opportunities.
In terms of potential there aren't many more exciting than JOE HIGHSMITH and unlike the raw Coody twins, he's shown a pleasing consistency since embarking upon his professional career.
Highsmith's only missed cuts so far have been in the US Open and the Barracuda Championship, the latter only narrowly, and he was a consistent contender on the Canadian Tour where he lost a play-off on his first start among the paid ranks.
It's little wonder then that he's quickly got to grips with life on the Korn Ferry Tour, making all eight cuts so far, and though he's contended only once, this tougher test ought to suit a player who ranks first in ball-striking, fifth in greens, and whose strong driving is a blend of distance and accuracy.
Highsmith was an elite junior golfer who reached 11th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings and his best round so far this season came in the Suncoast Classic, so I really like his profile for this event, one which saw a world-class youngster emerge two years ago.
Wade Binfield wouldn't be the longest but has local connections and course form so, having finished fifth last time out in Alabama, he might be able to improve upon a good top-15 finish at this course back in 2019.
He's respected along with Vince Whaley and course specialist Grayson Murray, but AUGUSTO NUNEZ is another class-dropper with rock-solid form to his name and looks worth a bet at 50s.
Nunez ranks 24th in distance on the PGA Tour currently and was 22nd at this level last season, so he meets the criteria and we can see from 21st place in this event last year that the course is one he likes.
Making the cut in 10 of 12 PGA Tour starts in 2023 represents serious form being brought to this lower level and while he'd been plagued by putting issues which undermined some strong ball-striking at the beginning of the season, two of his last three performances with the flat stick have been well above average.
Nunez also produced his best approach play figures so far when ranking 16th at the Byron Nelson last week and if he puts these elements together on his Korn Ferry Tour return, he ought to be threatening another top-10 finish at the very least. He was ticking those off at 40% from April through to the end of last season.
At big prices I did consider Carter Jenkins, leader through 36 holes last time out before fading to seventh which in turn was a step forward on 14th place in that Suncoast Classic I've referenced a few times.
He'd made a decent impression at the start of the campaign too but at the odds I'd rather chance JOHN AUGENSTEIN, who has been hinting that things might come together soon.
Augenstein has made fast starts in each of his last two appearances, sitting inside the top five around round one, and that was the case here last year when he was sixth before fading to finish 47th.
Although that performance might not leap off the page, he had missed his previous seven cuts so it was a big step in the right direction for the former Walker Cup player who lost out in the final of the 2019 US Amateur.
His career has stalled since he impressed with sixth place on the PGA Tour at the start of the 2021 season, but he ended 18 months without a top-10 finish when seventh in Colombia back in February and is a big-hitter whose game looks right for this test.
He clearly needs to improve but opening 64s in both Colombia and the Suncoast Classic plus another strong start in Alabama are enough to suggest he can do that and, at 150/1, he's worth a small bet.
Posted at 2020 BST on 16/05/23
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- What will it take to win the US PGA?
- Oak Hill course guide
- Golf tipping record
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