Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley is sweet on Shane Lowry as the DP World Tour begins its closing fortnight with the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
4pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet, Star Sports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 - Unibet 66/1)
1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 100/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Among the many changes made to men's professional golf over the past few years, it's often been the more subtle ones that have made the most sense. That's true of the proposals revealed by the PGA Tour last week and set to take effect in 2026, it's true of the pathways opened up between tours in Asia, Europe and North America, and on a much smaller scale it's also true of the ending to the DP World Tour season.
Where once players were asked to go from China to Turkey, down to South Africa and then back over to Dubai, now there's a more realistic proposition designed to entice elite golfers who by now have had just about enough for the year: come to the Middle East for two weeks and take part in two strong golf tournaments. Bar personal circumstances, such as those of Jon Rahm, there's no compelling reason to pass up the opportunity.
At the top of the Race to Dubai, it might not have mattered whether Rory McIlroy had turned up or not, such is his advantage over second-placed Thriston Lawrence. But he is here, along with every other member of the top 30 bar Billy Horschel and an injured Ludvig Aberg, and it's hard to escape the notion that the next fortnight probably won't throw up the opportunity to back a winner at a monster price.
If there is to be something of an upset, then it's more likely to come here at Yas Links, home of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship since 2022. Historically, this tournament has been more volatile than you might expect, probably because it used to be the first event of the year for most, meaning Christmas rust and club changes would always add a sense of the unknown even if fields were still top-heavy. Year after year, a careless McIlroy found ways not to win and that happened again in its replacement, the new Dubai Invitational, back in January.
Now that we're in November, I'm not sure that factor really applies. Yes, some of the game's elite have taken several weeks off, up to a couple of months in some cases, but there won't have been a great deal of tinkering. Instead, the one thing that could still unsettle the big names is the course, which is by no means a links but is very much exposed and features big, deep bunkers typical of the Middle East, plus heavily contoured greens which not everyone will enjoy.
It's certainly found out Tommy Fleetwood so far and while McIlroy was generally below his best when arriving here in 2022, he opened 72-75 to scrape through to the weekend, before finding his stride to salvage 12th place. Bar the Nike-switch year of 2013, it's his worst result in a tournament he's played almost every year since turning professional.
Dunhill Links winner Tyrrell Hatton is a big threat as might be Joaquin Niemann, but among the best players in the field it's SHANE LOWRY who stands out by quite some way.
A former winner despite patchy results at the old venue, Abu Dhabi GC, Lowry adapted quickly to this new and quite different test, one which you'd think would suit him better. On debut he ranked third in the tee-to-green stats and finished 12th, then last year he overcame a poor effort in the Hero Cup to finish 28th, again despite a cold putter.
Lowry's top-notch approach play has powered both performances and that's certainly the best place to start at a course which is probably more about pragmatism and patience than most others in this part of the world. Maybe that's why Lowry's friend Padraig Harrington contended in 2022 before Francesco Molinari did likewise a year later.
Victor Perez admittedly won here thanks to his short-game, his hole-out on the 17th an emphatic demonstration of that, but Lowry remains dynamite with a wedge in hand when his imagination is allowed to take over. These greens certainly encourage creativity and while I'd have liked more wind in the forecast, Yas Links is a dream fit regardless.
What his results don't show is that Lowry went into the final round of both these previous appearances as the favourite and from the moment he arrived almost three years ago, he knew this was a golf course where he should be in the mix if firing on all cylinders.
"It's a course that, you know, fully confident, I'm playing confident with my game and going into it I'd be really, really bullish about this week. But I've had two months without a tournament, and I'm always a bit anxious on a week like this about how I'm going to be playing going into it.
"Yeah, it's a course I feel like would suit me."
Lowry, who typically hasn't played deep into December, has only been off for four weeks this time and with his results of late reading 12-12-13-12 since the end of the PGA Tour season, he's been busy, he's been consistent bar a horror start to the Open de Espana (climbed from 100th to 13th), and he's been persistently threatening.
Here at Yas Links, he can cap another good year and boost his Ryder Cup claims in the process.
The Ryder Cup is very much on the mind of MATT WALLACE and he's the best value among a relatively small group of players above 20/1 who I'd consider to be realistic winners of this.
Wallace doesn't have Lowry's course form but finishes of 68th and 20th, the latter thanks to an excellent weekend's work, need context. On both occasions he'd ended the previous year in miserable form, his results coming in reading MC-MC-MC and MC-MC-67 respectively, so I doubt those results tell us much.
This time he's been rock-solid since winning the European Masters, gaining strokes off the tee, with his approaches and from tee-to-green in all bar one of his five starts. Seldom in the past has Wallace's long-game looked so assured and his prospects of making Luke Donald's team will depend on whether or not that continues long into 2025.
What I really like about how he's performed since Switzerland is the fact that he had no real reason for optimism in any of these tournaments bar the Dunhill Links, which is always volatile. It was his course debut on both starts in Spain, he had a previous best of 20th from seven Wentworth starts, and he'd missed both cuts in the Open de France.
Given that context, a closing 64 for 12th at Wentworth, three good rounds in four for 37th in Paris, 24th and 20th in Spain and a mid-pack performance in Scotland looks much more encouraging to my eye and having won in bursts in the past, it makes me wonder whether Wallace might have one more big week in him before the season is done.
Certainly, his wider form in the Middle East is encouraging as he's been second at all three regular host venues in Dubai as well as ninth in Qatar and seventh at the old Abu Dhabi course, but if there's a form line to be particularly taken with it might be fifth at Bernardus in the Dutch Open a couple of years ago.
Perez won that event, one Wallace had led with a round to go despite arriving in dire form, and there are several other names which crop up across that course and this one. Both are designed by Kyle Phillips, both are links-like in description (which translates to rugged and exposed), and winning scores have been in the same ball park, too.
Wallace also has a Dunhill Links top 10 – there are any number of connections between the two events, again led by Perez – and I'd say he's one who definitely benefits from calmer conditions. He ought to be right behind Adam Scott in the betting.
French fancy at three-figure price
Scott and his fellow Aussie, Min Woo Lee, are both respected but the former has tailed off and I take it as a negative that he's skipping the events back home at the end of the year. It suggests he might be feeling it a bit.
Lee meanwhile was the biggest challenger to Perez in 2022 but it's hard not to be worried about a prolonged spell of poor putting, a club he's relied on to make up for ongoing issues with his approach play.
Accessing pins which are protected by steep slopes might just be the number one requirement in a lower-scoring renewal and that leads me to ANTOINE ROZNER.
Like Lowry, Rozner has a bit of hidden encouragement hidden beneath the surface, as while down the leaderboard here in 2023 he had started the final round in seventh place before struggling in the wind.
Right now, he's one of the premiere iron players in Europe, ranking sixth, fifth, 12th and fifth among his last five starts, the exception being the unpredictable Dunhill Links. That run includes when finishing fourth in Korea last time, at a golf course with definite similarities to this one.
Having seemingly fixed his driving issues, Rozner only needed to putt a little better (37th) to go really well there and while that club continues to hold him back, he's generally been good on the grainier greens you'll find out here in the Middle East. That was the case when starting the year 32-16-12-6 and when 11th in last season's DP World Tour Championship.
A former winner in both Qatar and Dubai, both on exposed courses, Rozner looks the pick of the outsiders ahead of his compatriot Romain Langasque. The latter, a former winner of the Amateur Championship who made it six top-10s since March when seventh last time, is nevertheless respected having led the approach stats on debut here in 2022, but winning to seal his PGA Tour card feels like an enormous ask.
Instead, I can't resist taking the carrot dangled beside the name of LIV Golf rookie ADRIAN MERONK.
Based in Dubai, Meronk is right at home under these conditions and his results in the region are exceptional. In 15 starts in the UAE he has nine top-10s, including twice back in January, and he's done everything but win, generally in excellent fields such as when chasing home McIlroy at the start of the year.
Meronk's record in the Middle East includes Yas Links, where he withdrew when well-placed on debut and then returned to finish 10th at the start of last year, driving the ball in the way you might expect and generally looking at ease.
I selected the Pole at 25/1 for the aforementioned Dubai Desert Classic when beaten only by McIlroy and I've no doubt whatsoever that had this tournament taken place a week later, he'd have been a 16/1 shot. Equally certain is the fact that he ought to be a fair bit bigger now, but I'm surprised at the extent to which he is and expected to see him priced up at a best of 33s.
The reason he's 50/1 and bigger is that his largely modest form on the LIV Golf circuit has led to a slide down both the Official World Golf Rankings and DataGolf's version, but I maintain that judging players on three-round tournaments with a concurrent team competition is fraught with danger and remember, only two courses used by LIV Golf were familiar to him.
To be honest I wonder whether Meronk might never be at his best on LIV, where he's part of a team with two veterans from England and Germany plus a Finn who will be replaced by someone else next year. Bernd Wiesberger clearly never took to it and I wouldn't be at all surprised were we to look back and say the same about Meronk at some point.
Thomas Pieters would be another who reaps the benefits of the money and the extra time at home, but never realises his full potential as a result, and Meronk could easily fall into the same category – assuming, of course, that LIV continues for years to come, and that he remains involved beyond the extent of his current agreement.
Remember too that the standard at the top end of LIV Golf is undeniably strong. That's in part while Pieters is among those who've returned to the DP World Tour and won or gone close, a list which also features Niemann, Dean Burmester, Hatton, Rahm, and Louis Oosthuizen, the latter the only two-time winner of regular DP World Tour events this season.
Guesswork aplenty then but that's also true on the bookmakers' side and having been in contention for his final start of the regular LIV Golf season, then played well only to lose in 19 holes at the team championship, there have been enough positives in Meronk's play of late to take a chance.
Granted, a change of coach not too long ago may not be seen as ideal but he skipped the Andalucia Masters so as to be ready to do himself justice now and I'll back him to do that. Meronk is down to 100th in the world and if he's serious about making next year's Ryder Cup team, these next few weeks could prove vital.
For those seeking alternatives at bigger prices I could see Joe Dean and Sean Crocker going well, but proven form against top-notch players feels necessary. Rozner has it and he's as speculative as I'm willing to be as a fortnight of DP World Tour golf heads towards a familiar conclusion: McIlroy capturing the Race to Dubai.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 04/11/24
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