Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley bagged his first winner of the year last week and now previews the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, where Shane Lowry looks to have plenty in his favour.
Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
2pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Min Woo Lee at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Adam Scott at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Looking back now, it's easy to wonder whether the European Tour might've been better off saving its rebrand for the start of 2022. The emergence of a new coronavirus variant in the country where the season begins couldn't have been foreseen, but even without the abridgement of the Joburg Open and subsequent exit, it would've been a low-key launch for the DP World Tour and this brave and strategic and aligned new world.
This is where it begins in earnest and that would've been true regardless, with Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland headlining a good field at what by all accounts is a better-than-good golf course. Yas Links steps in at last to replace Abu Dhabi Golf Club for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and for many represents an upgrade; it's a more natural, exposed course which, under the right conditions, ought to ask more questions.
It also complicates things, because Yas Links is new to us, and it's new to McIlroy, who hadn't played it prior to this week*. He was obviously very fond of the former venue, although after missing another fine chance there last January, perhaps in some way he'll be glad to see the back of it. McIlroy put together no fewer than seven top-three finishes in his last eight visits to Abu Dhabi, but somehow never quite got over the line in front.
*McIlroy has in fact played the course casually some years ago - sentence above written after misinterpretation on press release
Morikawa outshone him when the pair headlined the field in the DP World Tour Championship and having won the Open on his first try last summer, this coastal challenge won't bother him. Nor will it Hovland, whose by-the-sea record was excellent even before he stormed to victory in the Hero World Challenge late last year. There's a feeling he's catching up with his old college sparring partner and there's probably not much between them here.
Ordinarily, a European Tour event featuring three genuinely world-class players and six or seven from the next tier would look to be easy to narrow down. Class is the ultimate determinant and nothing demonstrates that better than Morikawa's victory in Dubai, where he probably wasn't at his best yet in the end left them for dead. He and Hovland have had a pipe-opener in Hawaii so rust ought not to be a major issue and I'd take them over McIlroy, with narrow preference for Hovland at the odds.
The trouble is, this event has often thrown up an ever-so-slightly suprising result, perhaps because of where it sits in the calendar. There were plenty of players testing new equipment on Sunday and Monday, others finally dusting off the clubs after extended breaks. There are those who've spent a good amount of time making the most of world-class practise facilities in the UAE, and some who've flown half way around the world to get there in time.
Another major factor is the wind, which is currently forecast to howl at up to 35mph on Friday, and pose a significant enough threat throughout the tournament. That brings the potential for a draw bias into play but also promises to make Yas Links more difficult than winning scores of 13-, 14- and 17-under in low-key 54-hole events would suggest.
Conditions ideal for Open champion
Hopefully that wind materialises and if it does, SHANE LOWRY might be best placed to upstage the three biggest names and make a winning start to the year.
When you've won at Firestone and Portrush you are far from one-dimensional, but Lowry is clearly at his most comfortable by the coast and when the skills he honed at the latter course and beyond really come to the fore. That's been true since he defied wind and rain to win the Irish Open as an amateur, and after he blew Abu Dhabi apart with an opening 62 in 2019, a consistent breeze made things tricky when he won this title, too.
That victory set him on a path to become Open champion and Lowry, now down at 48th in the world, understands what this tournament can do for your season. And, having struggled somewhat on the PGA Tour towards the end of an otherwise successful year, the last time we saw him in these parts he finished ninth on what's likely a less suitable course in the season finale.
With European Tour form of MC-27-29-23-12-17-4-9 in 2021, Lowry is solid and reliable when back among his peers, and there have been big positives with his approach play and putting lately. He'll need to dial back in the driver if he's to reach the heights of three summers ago, but that appears likely and my hope is he'll be able to play on instinct here anyway.
It's worth noting that while he won over at the former host venue, Lowry missed five cuts in his final six visits there so the change in venue won't be unwelcome, and this looks an ideal place to begin. Providing he doesn't suffer misfortune with his tee-times, he can demonstrate that Yas Links is a better fit than anywhere else in the Gulf and secure another big title.
Lowry has of course demonstrated that he can win straight out of the gate, and I think he'll be especially keen here to get back to work after a draining year which saw him stand tall in the Ryder Cup. It's probably not surprising he was a little quiet thereafter but as mentioned, when he came back across the Atlantic he was a threat.
Generally though there ought to be an advantage for those who have played already this year and that helps place MIN WOO LEE on the radar, after his fourth-placed finish in the Australian PGA Championship.
No match for a runaway winner, it was nevertheless a nice, low-key reintroduction and while a long-distance flight to the Middle East possibly isn't ideal, he'll have had time to adjust come Thursday. He's also won when completing the reverse journey, so it shouldn't be an excuse.
In his brief career so far, this star Aussie has won by the coast in his native Australia and in Scotland, and his game took off towards the end of 2021 with form figures of 2-8-4-16 to sign off. They came from a shootout in Portugal to the tight confines of Valderrama and demonstrate the versatility of a modern golfer with a sharp short-game, whose putter is the only real concern.
That of course could stop him as it did in the DP World Tour Championship, but Lee has everything else covered and with that wind in mind, I love the fact he's so good around the greens. Last year he ranked third of 179 players, climbing from 22nd in 2020, and it's an unheralded strength of one of the longest drivers and best ball-strikers on the circuit.
Having missed the cut on both starts at Abu Dhabi, Yas Links offers a fresh start and it's probably no coincidence that his standout effort so far in the Middle East came in Saudi Arabia when still learning about life on tour. That course is exposed and coastal and, like Al Mouj in Oman, ought to be a better guide to this than previous renewals.
The combination of Lee's form under links-like conditions (winner at The Renaissance and 13th Beach), his form at the end of 2021 and his run out back home makes him a likely candidate and he can cement his place among the world's top 50.
Although we've undoubtedly had some surprise winners, another notable trait in champions since the Kaymer-Casey axis was finally toppled is that they had a touch of class but weren't necessarily on everyone's radar. Qualifiers this year might include Lee Westwood, who won the event in 2020 at a similar price, or the likes of Danny Willett, Garrick Higgo, Matt Wallace and Andy Sullivan.
But slightly further up the betting, this looks another good time to play ROBERT MACINTYRE after he rewarded faith and patience with fourth place in Dubai last time we saw him.
MacIntyre had every chance heading to the latter stages of that event only for one errant drive to cost him, but he rallied impressively for a valuable top-five finish which again puts him on the cusp of the world's top 50.
He has Masters and Open invites safely tucked away thanks to his exploits in those events last year, but getting into the WGCs and The PLAYERS, as well as the other two majors, is sure to be a huge goal and with no PGA Tour card to work with, his prospects will depend plenty on these first few events.
The wind which is forecast will surely suit a Scotsman who grew up with a sea view and he's been particularly effective in the desert so far, ever since he won a MENA Tour event in Kuwait back in 2017. Since then he's played 10 events in the UAE, and only once, in Abu Dhabi three years ago, has he finished outside the top 25.
As with Lowry, I'd be hopeful that conditions allow MacIntyre to escape some unimpressive approach-play numbers towards the end of last year and get back to what he does best, manufacturing shots and playing the game as he learned it. He's had four good chances to win in this part of the world and a fifth would come as no surprise.
Who is the pick of the outsiders?
At bigger prices there are plenty of options, with Ryan Fox catching the eye at the odds given his blend of links and Saudi Arabia form, Romain Langasque one to watch, veteran Wade Ormsby possessing the required short-game skills and Matti Schmid having finished second at the Phillips-designed Bernardus already.
But my eye is drawn to JOAKIM LAGERGREN, whose Phillips form extends to The Grove, Kingsbarns and Verdura, the latter where he won his sole European Tour title to date back in 2018.
The Swede is clearly at his best by the sea or at least when there's a breeze to deal with, having also contended in Qatar and at Himmerland, so conditions here ought to suit more than the previous venue, where he nevertheless defied a bad start to finish a respectable 21st on his last visit.
Lagergren can be errant off the tee and is not a player to set your watch by, relying more on putting than I would ordinarily like in a selection. We saw it help him to second place in the Dunhill Links, where four top-five finishes is a remarkable return for a player of his level, and it was in evidence again when he finished mid-pack in the DP World Tour Championship.
Along with impressive around-the-green numbers it's clear what sort of contest he's most likely to win, but the weather forecast offers real encouragement that short-games could be especially important and he's simply a far better player on courses like this one. Virtually all of his best form says so and he's no forlorn hope at a big price for all that this would represent a step up on his previous achievements.
It's tempting to suggest that former runner-up Thorbjorn Olesen can return to his previous best now his court case is finished. Olesen was very emotional when cleared of all charges in December, offering a contrite apology and talking about how badly his career had been affected by the 2019 incident and a two-year aftermath.
He's a desert specialist who finished inside the top 10 when last we saw him and was once good enough to go off a fifth of the price in this company, so there's plenty of upside for those willing to take on board the risks. Ultimately though, he might need calmer waters to contend even if he does eventually manage to chart a course back to where he was.
Charl Schwartzel's driving woes towards the end of 2021 are sufficiently off-putting even if I doubt many in his price bracket could've managed the PGA Tour form he showed in patches last season, and Ross Fisher, another on a career-money exemption, would have been more interesting at the old venue or else without such breeze in the forecast.
Aussies to rule?
Ultimately I found it difficult to stray too far beyond that second wave of the market and will add another Australian in the form of ADAM SCOTT.
I remain of the belief that keeping the Aussies on-side after one of them has won is at least worth considering and as I wrote last week, when Cameron Smith won the Sony Open in January 2020, Scott was among a host of his compatriots to follow suit, as was Lee.
More pertinently, this looks a potentially good venue for a player who ought to have won an Open Championship and did once win at Doha, the most links-like course we've seen so far in the UAE. He's also playing well, or at least was when last seen, finishing fifth in the CJ Cup and 14th at Wentworth in the weeks that followed a horror missed putt for a PGA Tour win in August.
The fact he's been in the UAE practising at Saadiyat over the weekend bodes well and so does the fact he's so familiar with playing in a high-class tournament after a long break. That was the case when he won the Masters after a month away, and for that PGA Tour win two years ago when he saw off an elite field to triumph at Riviera.
Back then, Scott was inside the world's top 10 but having suffered more than most elite golfers due to the interruption brought by the pandemic, on Monday he dropped out of the world's top 50 for the first time in four years. That ought to add to his determination to start the year well and Yas Links could just be perfect.
Posted at 1735 GMT on 17/01/22
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