Ben Coley's golf betting tips: 3M Open preview and best bets
Cam Davis can help end a frustrating fortnight for both himself and our golf expert Ben Coley by landing the 3M Open.
Golf betting tips: 3M Open
3pts win Sungjae Im at 16/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Cam Davis at 35/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Justin Suh at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Austin Eckroat at 70/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Garrick Higgo at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Greyson Sigg at 110/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
We're in whatever the establishment next door to the last chance saloon is called for the 3M Open, as a revamped FedEx Cup Playoffs fast approaches. Unlike in previous years, when 125 players qualified for the first tournament of what once was four but now is three, this time everyone bar the top 70 following the Wyndham Championship is done for the 2023 season. It's now or, well, next week.
The target looks like being around 600 points, more than twice what the man in 125th currently has, and for anyone as low as Trey Mullinax it'll take winning or nearly winning to get out of jail. As far as storylines go, however, this is all about another Alabama alumni, Justin Thomas, and the wider implications of this next fortnight.
Thomas currently occupies 75th place in the standings, a mere 21 points shy of 70th, which equates to finishing 35th this week. We don't know for sure and won't until the Wyndham is all but finished, but something like a top-20 in either of the two events could be enough to earn him a start at the FedEx St Jude Championship, which in turn could be all he needs to be selected for the Ryder Cup.
In a funny way, Thomas could even benefit from only scraping into the Memphis event, and thus not advancing any further in the Playoffs unless he just about wins that one, too. It would mean the end of his season saw him step up under pressure and make it to the Playoffs, where he was always up against it. Play well enough to progress further, and that helps, too. In a nutshell I think he'll be on the team if he does the job here or at the Wyndham.
Whether he does or not only time will tell, but 25/1 made some appeal. You'll know by now that Thomas endured a nightmare start to the Open, taking nine at the 18th hole on Thursday. But just as his miserable effort at the US Open was overplayed before he produced a high-class top-10 the very next week, I do believe he's closer than he looks. Five of his eight rounds since the Travelers have been good, too.
Thomas sounded optimistic after a second-round 71 at Hoylake, which was set to be lower until that 18th hole cost him another shot, five in total from two walks down it. "I played really well," he said. "I used today as a good opportunity to get ready for next week, and I felt like I did that. I'm hitting a lot of good shots. I'm just making so many bonehead mistakes and crazy things happening, and I'll be fine."
Now rated roughly the equal of Emiliano Grillo in this weak field, I was very close to pulling the trigger, which based on the past fortnight is excellent news for Thomas's immediate prospects. He's a former Honda Classic winner which might help here at TPC Twin Cities, an easier but still water-laden course which compares with PGA National, but ultimately it's his first look around and maybe waiting a week or two longer will pay off.
As for what the course requires, it would be easy to look at a roll-of-honour featuring Matt Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau and conclude that it's bombs away. Champ though led the field in putting and while there's certainly been a powerful feel to a couple of these leaderboards, victory for Michael Thompson plus contending performances from Roger Sloan and Ryan Armour suggests it's more complicated than that. It seems a pretty level playing field.
If anything, driving the ball well is the bottom line. That might mean averaging 330 yards or more in what are set to be scorching conditions, but it might also mean keeping the ball in play, setting up opportunities to attack flags on these large greens, buying yourself the luxury of choice: when to attack, when to take two putts and a par. This is an event dominated by prolific birdie-makers, but it's no brainless shootout given the artificial hazards that serve the very purpose they were designed for.
That Honda Classic comparison does look a strong one even if wind is far less likely to play its part here, though it has in the past. In essence both require solid driving and mishit approach shots can be dramatically penalised. Michael Thompson has of course won both, but the likes of Alex Noren, Robby Shelton, Adam Svensson, his compatriot Sloan and other lesser lights really help establish ties.
Side with Sungjae for hat-trick
Defending champion Tony Finau doesn't have the FedEx Cup pressure that Thomas faces, but his Ryder Cup place has never looked in greater jeopardy than it does now and he's in need of a better defence than when missing the cut in Detroit. Cam Young, an Open contender again last week, is also far from certain to make the side but presumably his immediate focus is on winning; both have time, whereas Thomas is battling for more of that.
Neither makes all that much appeal and I'm more interested in the next three names in the betting, with SUNGJAE IM narrowly preferred to Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama.
Im is of course another former winner of the Honda Classic, one who further underlines the worth of that event as a guide to this one having been 15th and second here in Minnesota. So far he's carded eight under-par rounds, his opening 65 as a rookie in 2019 immediately underlining his suitability to the course. He'd played similarly at PGA National earlier that year, too.
Returning in 2022 with form figures of MC-MC-81 behind him, Im was a good second to Finau and did everything well. Now he's here on the back of his best Open Championship performance to date and he's tended to play well following a major, whether that's at Hilton Head or when second and sixth after his two previous trips to Europe.
At 16th in birdie average he's one of the more prolific scorers in this field and while his driver didn't fire in the way we know it can last week, I expect he'll dial it back in under these very different conditions. Im has been a top-35 driver in every season on the PGA Tour so far, his blend of above-average power and a high degree of accuracy seemingly ideal for this venue.
With just five top-tier players in this field, it looks a good chance for the Korean to build on the Open and end the season on a high. He loves both Twin Cities and Sedgefield, home of the Wyndham Championship, and is very much a name to keep a close eye on over this fortnight before another crack at the FedEx Cup, which he almost stole from Rory McIlroy's pocket last year.
Motivation is often difficult to assess but as far as CAM DAVIS goes, that's not the case at all and he could well be a determined winner of this event.
Davis was the first alternate in England last week, where he hung around throughout Thursday in case somebody withdrew prior to the Open Championship. They did not, so the Australian missed out on the opportunity to add to a top-10 finish at the PGA, as well as the chance to avoid a similar scenario unfolding in 2024.
Currently ranked 56th in the world, Davis is one good week from locking up major starts while at 77th in the FedEx Cup, doing that would also earn him a go at the Playoffs. Again, clear motivation not least because he's based in Chicago, and the BMW Championship returns to Illinois in three weeks. That's something he'll be desperate to play in.
The good news for Davis is that he could hardly have asked for two better events through which to take care of business. Since missing the cut here as a rookie he's finished 12th, 28th and 16th, while two starts at the Wyndham – perhaps not quite as strong a fit on paper – have resulted in finishes of 22nd and 15th.
Continuing this run of top-30s into a sixth and seventh event will set him up perfectly for the Playoffs and, fuelled by what happened (or didn't happen) at the Open, that's something we should expect Davis to do at what's very much his time of year.
Form-wise, he'd been playing well prior to the Scottish Open, where he missed the cut narrowly because of his short-game. Before that a final-round 63 in the Travelers preceded a top-20 finish in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and with the exception of some so-so putting he did everything to very high standards across these two tournaments.
Both were held in the northern states and that too probably helps. Davis's first win came in Detroit, he was fourth in the US PGA in New York, and the bentgrass here at TPC Twin Cities in certainly in his favour.
Eighth in the Honda Classic the year Im won, Davis has loads in his favour and looks a great bet at 33/1 and bigger.
Suh ready to shine
Keith Mitchell once made seven birdies in a row here and is another former Honda Classic champion who made some appeal along with Adam Hadwin, who could easily bounce back from a missed cut in the John Deere. That came days after a play-off defeat in Detroit and Hadwin has generally built on such near-misses in the past.
Whether Patrick Rodgers can do so having blown a golden opportunity on Sunday remains to be seen but the layers are understandably taking no chances, so I'll head further down the betting to JUSTIN SUH, a young Californian who should draw inspiration from Akshay Bhatia's smash-and-grab at the Barracuda.
Suh never really got going there but four solid rounds for 34th and another cut made was a nice enough return from three weeks off, especially with the course perhaps not ideal for him. Ultimately a pair of double-bogeys over the first two rounds kept him out of contention but a strong weekend leaves the impression he remains in good nick.
My feeling is that Twin Cities is far more suitable for someone whose driver is such a strength when firing, and that's enhanced by the fact that he drove the ball well when playing on an invite here in 2019, weeks after he'd turned pro, as it is by fifth place in the Honda Classic where he could so easily have won had he putted to his usual standard.
Suh's putter has generally been his other asset, one of the reasons he's missed just a single cut in his last 23 stroke play events, and if there's a concern it would be that his approach play doesn't always come up to scratch.
Still, with some indications that the scene of his sole Korn Ferry Tour win in Indiana could correlate nicely with this, and his driver likely to provide a strong platform, this low-grade event looks like a good opportunity.
He's another who just needs one more big finish to scrape into the Playoffs and with his best form so far having come at the aforementioned PGA National, this looks a great place to take care of business.
AUSTIN ECKROAT is the other side of the line in 65th, having climbed almost a hundred places since the Valspar Championship back in March.
Like Suh, he now comes back to an event to which he received an invite early on in his professional career. It came two years ago when Eckroat defied an opening 73 to finish 16th, among his first notable performances at this level and a mighty effort given that nobody shot a worse day one score and so much as made the cut.
Approach play and putting was the formula that week, but Eckroat returns now having established himself as a quality driver. His Im-like profile of length and accuracy sees him rank 16th in total driving and 30th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and like Suh it's really only his approach play that has at times let him down.
That's been true lately, but I can excuse the Scottish Open and its skewed statistics and it's not long ago that he was 10th in the US Open, ranking fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green. That was part of a run of five top-30s in succession and I doubt he's far away from that form despite back-to-back missed cuts.
Eckroat was runner-up to Suh in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship at Victoria National and can confirm his liking for this course, perhaps going so far as emulating college teammate Wolff and making it the scene of his breakthrough win.
Albatross for Aberg?
Further up the market and Ludvig Aberg will appeal to plenty. He needs to win if he's to feature in the FedEx Cup Playoffs but, selfishly perhaps, I hope he falls short of that target and has to head over to the DP World Tour, where I'd just about make him favourite against anyone for the Czech Masters.
At the other end of the betting, Martin Laird hit the ball really well at the Barracuda and did so here on debut, ranking inside the top-five in strokes-gained tee-to-green but finishing down the field having made nothing. Ties between these two event can be made and it was tempting to go in again, but we have to acknowledge he's at his most comfortable under last week's conditions.
Then there's Erik van Rooyen, who went to college in Minnesota and has been a feature of pre-event coverage here in recent years. Though disappointing so far, punters with patience can try him again at inflated odds and some already have, unsurprisingly taking William Hill's reckless 400/1. Van Rooyen was sixth last week and shot 63 in Scotland, too, but at the revised prices I can let him go.
Preference is for two more realistic contenders, starting with van Rooyen's compatriot, GARRICK HIGGO.
The South African missed the cut here last summer but that was the first of nine in his final 11 starts of 2023 and he'd been in generally awful form in the run-up, too. I'm not sure it tells us anything at all about his chances now he returns with progressive form figures of 33-21-19.
In truth, Higgo's improvements of late can be traced right back to the beginning of the campaign and among the highlights was 29th place in the Honda, where he defied an opening 75 and shot back-to-back 66s in the middle of the tournament.
That's a clue that he could enjoy TPC Twin Cities and so is the fact that he's been driving the ball exceptionally of late. For the season he ranks inside the top 20 in strokes-gained off the tee and right now the product of his distance and accuracy is that he's hitting stacks of greens, something I expect him to do here.
Yes, his approach stats remain far less convincing but there have been some small improvements lately and any further steps in the right direction would make him a contender.
This is weaker than when 19th in Scotland last time and, another who is close to making the Playoffs and says that's his focus for the next two weeks, a second PGA Tour win may not be far away.
Finally, three-figure prices about GREYSON SIGG are worth taking.
Sigg was on my radar last week but made a sloppy start in tough conditions, which has pushed him down the market given that he was close to Rodgers' price but is now considerably bigger. For further context, Sigg was left out at 50/1, we sided with Joel Dahmen at 150/1, and now Dahmen is the same kind of price.
That's quite a big reaction to two mistakes and Sigg bounced back from them with a bogey-free 64 in round two, accruing 14 points but missing the cut by one. In one of the most fickle tournaments of the year, the evidence actually suggests he remains in really good form, whereas the market reckons he's cooled off.
Prior to the Barracuda, Sigg had been 38th in Canada, 19th in the high-class Travelers, down the pack at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and then 13th in the John Deere, where he shot an opening 65 to lie third. Throughout this run his approach play had been consistently strong and he produced a top-20 performance in all four statistical categories at some stage.
Now he comes back to the 3M Open, scene of his single best finish in 2022 and indeed his best result on the PGA Tour to date. His form was good back then but the same is true now, only this time he has some course experience to call upon, and that Friday round at the Barracuda to confirm that he really is firing on all cyclinders.
His debut top-10 at Twin Cities came about because of the best off-the-tee and approach play stats of his burgeoning PGA Tour career and he looks ready to produce a similar display. Sigg's Korn Ferry Tour career was brief enough and lucrative enough to suggest he has what it takes to win at this level and it could happen this week.
Posted at 1800 BST on 24/07/23
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