Ben Coley's golf betting tips: 3M Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley previews the 3M Open, a low-scoring event for which Tony Finau is favourite, and therefore a fine opportunity for some promising PGA Tour maidens.
Golf betting tips: 3M Open
1.5pts e.w. Adam Svensson at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Chris Gotterup at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Troy Merritt at 70/1 (bet365, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Michael Gligic at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,8)
1pt e.w. Callum Tarren at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Cole Hammer at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
With the FedEx St Jude Championship now part of the season-ending Playoffs, the PGA Tour's regular season concludes with three events which tend to be absent of golfing megastars. As of now it appears that Will Zalatoris is the highest-profile commitment to next week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, with Billy Horschel and Adam Scott signed up for the Wyndham Championship after that. Here at the 3M Open, it's Tony Finau who takes top billing along with Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, widely expected to be departing for the other side soon.
This isn't good news for sponsors and it's a shame for fans, particularly those in areas which seldom get to host tournaments, but it is good news for those whose futures are on the line. The flat structure of the FedEx Cup means that there are 500 points on offer to the winner here at TPC Twin Cities, just as there were when Finau battled Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas down the stretch in Canada, just as there were when Scottie Scheffler beat Patrick Cantlay in Phoenix,
Points really are everything at this time of year, and not just around that magic 125 number. That's what they call the bubble, with the top 125 making the Playoffs and earning full status for next year, but everyone in this field has something to aim at. Finau, for instance, currently sits 30th, the cut-off for making the TOUR Championship. Beau Hossler is 70th, the cut-off for the BMW Championship. Kelly Kraft is 150th, which would earn him conditional status for next year. Chris Gotterup needs about 133 points – equivalent to finishing fourth – for Special Temporary Membership, while late invite Joohyung Kim is on the cusp of earning full membership for 2023.
It's all quite a lot to take in but at least Twin Cities is straightforward enough, whether you're here for the first time or, as in Finau's case, the fourth. At 7,431 yards, this is a reasonably long par 71 which produced a big-hitting leaderboard in tougher conditions last year, as Cameron Champ captured his third PGA Tour title. It's wide and forgiving off the tee with large greens, but water is in play virtually throughout and that's what keeps a lid on scoring. Last year, a combination of wind and water made the par-five closing hole a brute, but things should be easier this time around based on the weather forecast.
Profiling the event isn't easy, because two of the three winners so far topped the putting charts, and the contrast between Michael Thompson and the others, Champ and Matthew Wolff, is stark. Then again, that 2020 renewal might be anomalous: it was really the first time top-class players felt able to take a break after a busy return to action (favourite Dustin Johnson withdrew after shooting 78 in round one), there were few fans on the course, and Thompson produced one or two moments of magic to fend off a sea of challengers, including one of the finest fairway bunker shots you'll ever see. He was also a proven winner at the Honda Classic and in their own ways, all three champions have boasted an undoubted touch of class.
Finau is the man to beat without question, but backing him at 12/1 under any circumstances is either brave or foolish. Straight off the plane from St Andrews, now forced into an altogether different style of golf, surely pushes it towards the latter while neither Sungjae Im nor Matsuyama has shown enough of late to be of serious interest. The second wave of the market, however, is very strong: Maverick McNealy, Adam Hadwin, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Davis and Kim all rate obvious candidates and McNealy and Riley are of particular interest.
However, the market is surely onto the former and while Riley's potential is even greater, he threw in a shocking putting display when last we saw him and has been off for a month since. Second only to Matsuyama in birdie average among this field, this prodigious driver should love the course but ultimately it is his debut and there are enough doubts to let him go unbacked at the shortest price he's been all season.
Nick Hardy has that same hurdle to overcome but was more tempting at 40/1. He's been no worse than 35th across his last seven starts, often hitting the ball really well particularly off the tee, and his putter is warming up. At 132nd in the FedEx Cup ranking, a number which doesn't reflect his ability nor his play (missed several events through injury), he's got incentive, he's comfortable on bentgrass hailing as he does from Illinois, and he too is prolific when among the birdies.
He's respected on a shortlist which runs into double-figures, but on balance the experience of ADAM SVENSSON edges it and he rates the headline bet.
Ever since a rookie season which saw him rank among the best ball-strikers on the circuit, Svensson is a player I've had pretty high hopes for and he showed that he's too good for the Korn Ferry Tour when winning twice on that circuit last year.
Back up at this level he made a solid start to the campaign, with top-10s at the Sony Open and the water-laden Honda Classic, where Thompson is a former winner. It was telling back then that Tim Tucker, former caddie for Bryson DeChambeau, had taken his bag and after a brief break, he was back alongside Svensson for sixth place in Kentucky last time.
That confirmed Svensson has emerged from a spring slump in no uncertain terms now, making seven cuts in succession. To a large degree this can be explained by a significant upturn in his fortunes on the greens – he ranked 182nd exiting the Wells Fargo and has since climbed to 95th, seemingly improving for surfaces more in line with those he grew up on in Canada and benefiting from some good old fashioned hard work.
"I've been playing well," he said at the Barbasol, where he finished sixth. "I had a couple top-25s the last few events. I've always had not issues but just kind of struggled a little bit with the putter. I've been working more on putting than I have ball-striking. Usually it's the other way around for me, so just I think the extra work and the extra time spent into putting has helped my game even more than just hitting balls."
At seventh in this field in birdie average and with his best ball-striking numbers of the year there in the Barbasol, everything is in place for him to continue to thrive in the coming weeks. If not here then the Wyndham Championship would be an obvious place for a breakthrough given that he threatened to shoot 59 there once, but there are even more positives relating to the 3M Open as he was 15th when arriving on the back of six missed cuts back in 2019.
Svensson ranked third in strokes-gained tee-to-green that week but 70th of 73 players in putting, and the fact he climbed from 71st after the first round to shoot 13-under for the next three and secure his best finish of a bad year is another indication of how well he took to Twin Cities. Providing the putter stays warm, he looks to hold every chance here and can upstage Hadwin to advertise his own FedEx Cup credentials.
Putting is usually a strength of WYNDHAM CLARK's and if he can show that again, there's no reason he can't repeat his contending top-five here three years ago.
Clark is one of the longest drivers on the PGA Tour and over the last month he's right up there as one of the best, ranking 10th, eighth and 10th for strokes-gained off the tee across his three latest starts. Each of them offered promise and he managed to finish 16th in a world-class Scottish Open a fortnight ago despite being one of the very worst putters in the field, three starts after he'd led in putting in Canada.
Perhaps slow, links greens can be blamed as Clark went on to putt abysmally in the Open, still making the cut. He'd failed to do so by a single shot in the US Open back in June and the overriding message here is that this occasionally wayward talent, who was a brilliant amateur, has found a level of consistency which had been lacking for far too long.
His approach play does remain inconsistent and may hold him back here, but he was rock-solid in that department when contending for the inaugural edition of this event as he was a fortnight ago at The Renaissance, and everything else about his game looks ideal for this. Also of note is the fact we're at altitude, something which won't bother a player born in Denver, and strong form in the Honda Classic correlates better than you'd perhaps think it would.
To my mind, Clark is a similar player to McNealy and at their respective prices, it's the former who is considered the best value.
Sticking with the altitude angle, it's notable that this event has proven a good guide to the Barracuda Championship in recent years. Richy Werenski went from contending here to winning the Barracuda, just as Collin Morikawa had done, and 2021 Barracuda champion Erik van Rooyen went to college in Minnesota.
The altitude factor is less significant here but now they've swapped places in the calendar, there's an argument that last week's stableford event might turn out to be a reliable pointer despite its weak field. That of course is good news for Davis and McNealy but I was more tempted by Austin Smotherman, emerging as a fabulous ball-striker and close to securing his card for 2022.
Smotherman was playing on home turf last week and spoke of how comfortable he is at altitude, something he'd demonstrated on the Korn Ferry Tour, but after much deliberation I prefer the chances of proven winner TROY MERRITT.
Born in Iowa and finishing his college career at Boise, where he now lives, altitude has never been an issue for Merritt and while he didn't take part last week, he was runner-up in both the 2019 and 2020 renewals of the Barracuda.
To some degree that explains a good record here, finishing seventh on debut and then opening with a round of 64 last year, but there's much more to it than that. Merritt moved to Minnesota in his teens and went Winona State University for two years before transferring to Boise, so he retains close ties with the area.
"Yeah, I've seen this golf course now for about 20 years," he said last year. "Came to watch the seniors play when I was in high school and got to play it once or twice. It's just a lot of fun. It's great for the players, it's great for the fans, you can make a lot of birdies, the scoring's usually really low. So if you like shootouts, this is the golf course for you and you're going to get another one this week."
Merritt at his best is a prolific birdie-maker, once winning the season-long Kodak Challenge and ranking as high as 10th in birdie average a couple of seasons ago. He was back in that zone in Scotland two weeks ago as he rediscovered some form, but the most encouraging aspect of his performance there was the return of his first-class approach play. Merritt needs to be hitting his irons well to compete and he did that, ranking fourth among the world's best players.
It's iron play that has cost him here in the past, but it needn't if he's at his best. Last year he wasn't able to capitalise on what for him was close to a peak driving display but he had missed his last two cuts and flown in from the Open Championship, so perhaps the extra week will be to his benefit and certainly conditions will be – both wins have come at this precise time of year on low-scoring courses with bentgrass greens, and he says he's no fan of bermuda.
Just as Cameron Smith returned to form at precisely the right time, at this lower level Merritt might be primed to pick off a third PGA Tour title in front of friends and family.
Beau Hossler was 12th going into the final round last year having been selected on these pages at 125/1. He's since had two chances to win this season and as a big-hitting, hot putter makes some appeal at only slightly shorter in the market, but his iron play has dropped off a cliff lately and that's enough of a concern.
Instead, I'll roll the dice on two in-form players who have been edging towards the top 125 lately, CALLUM TARREN and MICHAEL GLIGIC.
This pair are actually 144th and 145th in the FedEx Cup standings now and starting with Tarren, he's climbed the rankings from the lowest possible base, having failed to make the weekend in his first eight PGA Tour starts this season before doing much better when 30th in the aforementioned Honda Classic.
Since then he's looked much more at ease, contending the following week in Puerto Rico and playing to a considerably higher level. Three times in his last eight starts he's been inside the top three after round one, including when second at the US Open, while he entered the final round of the John Deere Classic as a potential threat on his way to sixth place.
Missing the cut narrowly in Scotland is easy to excuse given the strength of field and he did well in the circumstances to finish 22nd in California last week, jet lag a potential factor in a costly second round. He was much better across the other three and while we don't have strokes-gained stats, it was the first time he's ranked inside the top five for greens hit at this level, and the first time he's led the total driving stats.
It seems very reasonable to believe he continued the strong off-the-tee displays of the John Deere and Scottish Open and this big-hitter has seen his approach play come good of late, ranking ninth in the US Open. Per the below tweet, there are a lot of shots from 175-200 yards this week and though not the best guide (small sample size, doesn't factor in putts made or missed), the fact he ranks as one of the very best in this field in birdies from that range is another small positive to place alongside the overall state of his game.
Certainly, Tarren is playing well enough to threaten in a field like this one and with his best chance to win in the US having come at altitude in Colorado, he's a player I like at three-figure prices.
So is Gligic, who had a chance to lock up his card at Deere Run only to stumble late on Sunday. Since then, one round has hurt him at both the Barbasol and the Barracuda, but as well as making eight cuts in succession he's now been inside the top 10 at halfway in each of the last three tournaments he's played, making this the best and most sustained run of form he's shown in his career.
Gligic isn't a flashy player with a high ceiling but he has won on the Korn Ferry Tour and I really like how he's performing at the moment, driving the ball long and straight and capitalising on an upturn with the putter. Similar greens to the John Deere Classic have to be considered a positive, and so is a top-10 finish when contending in Colorado back in 2019.
The most encouraging aspect of his profile, however, is the way he's played at Twin Cities in the past. In 2020, he came here having not made a cut since February, scraped through to the weekend, then shot 68-65 to climb to 26th. Last year he solidified that by making the cut again and across these two visits he's done everything well, just not at the same time.
Given the substance to his form right now it's hoped he can put everything together and avoid a trip to Korn Ferry Tour Finals.
Gotter chance the youngsters
Returning to the themes touched upon at the top, I have come back around to CHRIS GOTTERUP here and he's selected alongside outsider COLE HAMMER.
Gotterup was fourth despite putting badly in the John Deere Classic three weeks ago, and was the eighth-best player from tee-to-green in the US Open. Some players adjust quicker than others to the professional game and Gotterup has made a Wolff-like start to his.
Also seventh in Puerto Rico when showcasing his power, in his five other PGA Tour starts for which we have strokes-gained data he's been as high as seventh in strokes-gained off the tee, second in approaches, fifth around the green, and 22nd in putting. In other words he's shown that his game is already good enough to win in this kind of field.
His approach play when missing the cut in a high-class Canadian Open was outstanding and while flopping as favourite in the Barbasol Championship last time, he'd stopped off at home en route, the first time in months he'd seen his family, and then had to deal with both a late arrival and plenty of media attention. It's not a huge surprise he was caught cold.
Still, Gotterup only played badly for 12 holes, after which he was back in John Deere Classic mode. He was eight-under for his final 24 holes despite failing to properly capitalise on the par-fives, and as well as putting nicely throughout both rounds, his iron play on Friday was back at very high standards. Around the green is ultimately where the battle was lost but that category is never one to dwell on.
All of this marks him down as a fascinating contender wherever he goes, but this course looks a potentially good fit. He'll be able to reach all three par-fives, which isn't a given for the majority of the field, and also drive the short par-four on the back-nine. If he gets off to a better start, this youngster with enormous self-belief could well emulate Wolff and quickly get off the mark.
Hammer's amateur form at the beginning of the year was more patchy but the Texas star, who has received plenty of advice from the likes of Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler, made his first big impression when seventh on the Korn Ferry Tour last week.
Middle rounds of 63-64 there were excellent – nobody bettered him on Friday, and just six players did on Saturday – and after an understandably quiet front-nine on Sunday, he finished off well for his first professional top-10. Formerly the best amateur in the world, it shouldn't surprise anyone if he quickly builds on that to muscle in on a PGA Tour event.
Posted at 1330 BST on 19/07/22
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